Zach's Fearless NFL Predictions 2017: Conference Championships

            In 2004, the Boston Red Sox broke baseball’s biggest curse, the grossly unpopular “President” was reelected, and the Patriots, Steelers, and Falcons were playing in their Conference Championship games.  Jump to 12 years later: The Chicago Cubs just broke baseball’s biggest curse, the grossly unpopular President was “elected,” and the Patriots, Steelers, and Falcons are playing in their Conference Championship games. 

            Obviously, a few things are different – instead of the Donovan McNabb-T.O. Eagles squaring off against the Falcons, it is Aaron Rodgers’ Packers team playing in Atlanta; instead of the President lying to people on State of the Union addresses, the President lies to people through Twitter; and Brady and Roethlisberger are no longer the league’s squeaky-clean young guns.  But for old time’s sake, let’s grab that iPod with the latest Moby album downloaded on to it, clean up your MySpace page, and get as excited for this weekend’s slate of NFL action as you were for Pedro’s campaign for class president.

Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons (-4)

Sunday, January 22, 3:05pm EST, Fox.

            As I noted last week, Aaron Rodgers is the Best Football Player On The Planet right now, and when a player reaches that level of hotness (think Terrell Davis in 1998, Ray Lewis in 2001, and Richard Sherman in 2014), he is virtually impossible to stop on the field.  And based on their regular season performance, this Atlanta Falcons defense seems anything but up for the challenge.  They gave up 406 points in 16 games; the Jaguars, Bears, Colts, and Redskins each surrendered fewer points.  They were also particularly weak against the pass, ranking in the league’s bottom-five in pass yards and touchdowns.  With the exception of their Week 14 win against the Rams, the Falcons never forced more than 2 turnovers in any game all season.

            All that being said, Atlanta looked surprisingly tough last week against the Seahawks.  Yes, Seattle was banged up, playing 3000 miles away from home, were only one untimely holding penalty away from taking a 10-point lead; but the Falcons got to Russell Wilson all day, forcing him to make errant throws while virtually eliminating the Seahawks’ ground game.  Green Bay’s rushing attack is even more abysmal than Seattle’s at this point, and if Rodgers doesn’t have time in the pocket, the Packers’ receiving corps – perhaps playing without Jordy Nelson and Davante Adams – may have difficulties racking up big numbers.

            Green Bay’s defense looked solid through a quarter and a half of last week’s win in Dallas, but was completely incapable of stopping the Cowboys in the second half. Look at the Cowboys’ drives beginning right after the Packers took a 21-3 lead: Touchdown, field goal, interception, touchdown, touchdown, field goal.  Ladarius Gunter seemed hapless against Dez Bryant on every play, and the Packers’ Nickel defense really couldn’t stop Ezekiel Elliot (the only thing preventing a 200-yard rushing day by Zeke was Jason Garrett’s play-calling).  With their best player in the secondary now hobbled (Morgan Burnett), it’s tough to imagine this unit slowing down Matt Ryan and Julio Jones at home.

            A lot of people seem to think this game will be a shootout, with the winner ultimately determined by which team holds on to the ball last.  This is probably a good bet, since neither team has scored under 30 points since December 4.  The Falcons have the better offensive threats at receiver and runningback; they have the healthier and more aggressive defense; they’re certainly not intimidated by any defense at home, and especially not the Packers; they have the playoff revenge factor; and they have the feel-good story (who would have imagined the final game at the Georgia Dome would witness the Falcons clinching a Super Bowl berth?)  

            So yes, there’s a lot of reasons to like the Packers – 540 reasons, in fact, since that was the total number of points they scored in the regular season, good for 8^th best all-time.  Want to know why I’m picking the Packers?  You guessed it – this guy.  At the beginning of last week’s divisional game, Troy Aikman observed that Aaron Rodgers “just had that look in his eyes.”  Of course, that’s a laughably vague statement, but if there was ever a player you could say that about – and back it up through fact rather than speculation – it is Rodgers.  Playing against him for 60 minutes is terrifying.  It leaves you horrified, dazed, and traumatized.  There’s simply nothing you can do to stop it.  Take out his two best receivers?  He makes ridiculous last-second throws to Jared Cook. Take away his running game?  He has a converted wide receiver and big white fullback not named “KUUUUUHN” picking up 5 yards a carry – that is, when he isn’t using his own legs to pick up first downs.  Try to strip-sack him?  Good luck with that.

            I’ll be the first to admit that for every reason to pick the Packers in this game, there are five or six reasons to take the Falcons.  But there isn’t any more compelling reason to pick one team over the other except for that Aaron Rodgers happens to play for one of the teams.  Going into the season, few people thought Atlanta would be hosting the NFC Championship game; even fewer people thought the Packers would be here on November 20, after consecutive blowouts by the Titans and Redskins.  But when Aaron Rodgers gets that look in his eyes, everyone knows what’s going to happen.

Prediction: Green Bay 37, Atlanta 31

Playoff Doppelgänger: 2012 NFC Championship Game, San Francisco 28, Atlanta 24.  Perhaps the most crushing of Atlanta’s many postseason disappointments.  The Falcons led 24-0 at halftime, with Matt Ryan on pace to throw for approximately 6800 yards and 42 touchdowns.  Then Colin Kaepernick led a scintillating second half comeback (no electrical malfunction required), Jim Harbaugh went into McEnroe mode, and the Falcons blew yet another chance at immortality. 

Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots (-6)

Sunday, January 22, 6:40pm EST, CBS.

            Every Patriots fan knows that Tom Brady historically feasts upon the Steelers; look no further than the 2001 and 2004 AFC Championship Games, in which Brady carved up the Steelers defense on two separate occasions.  If you’re looking for a more recent example – say, from an era after the creation of YouTube – there are numerous examples too, although strangely enough, for two quarterbacks who have appeared in nine of the past 15 Super Bowls, this will only be their second playoff meeting.

            Let’s run down the case for the Steelers first.  Pittsburgh hasn’t lost a game since November 13, and have basically gotten healthier every week.  The defense in particular has stepped up in those last nine games; they’ve forced 18 turnovers and have allowed only one 100-yard rushing performance (Isaiah Crowell, playing against Steelers’ backups during Week 17).  Through two playoff games, Le’Veon Bell has rushed for 337 yards; that’s the second-most rushing yards of any player during a single postseason since 2000.  The most rushing yards?  338, by Jamal Lewis in 2000.  In spite of that greater emphasis on the running game, Pittsburgh’s pass offense hasn’t really skipped a beat either.  During the winning streak, Roethlisberger is still averaging over 200 passing yards a game, and Antonio Brown is still being left wide open by clueless secondaries.

            On top of having the league’s two most explosive offensive threats, the Steelers have played a tougher schedule than the Patriots, and even when they lost to New England in Week 7 – a game with Landry Jones starting at QB – they had few issues moving the ball against the Patriots’ defense.  But this is January at Foxboro and since the Steelers’ quarterback is not named Joe Flacco or Mark Sanchez, history suggests that Sunday’s game will be an uphill battle for the NFL’s evil empire.

            The truth is, in spite of Pittsburgh’s and New England’s winning steaks (nine and eight straight games, respectively), both of these teams come into the AFC Championship with issues.  The Patriots looked soft for much of last week’s game against the Texans; maybe they were thinking ahead to this week’s game, or maybe the bye week took away their athletic edge.  Brady completed less than 50 percent of his passes and threw two interceptions, and the running game was non-existent; in spite of this, the Patriots scored “only” 34 points and won by 18.  But this was against Brock Osweiler, let’s not forget.

            And like many of their previous playoff games (Super Bowl 43 and the 2010 AFC Championship game come to mind) the Steelers got a first half-lead, took their foot off the peddle, and barely hung on in the fourth quarter for a win they may not have deserved.  To be clear, they couldn’t score an offensive touchdown in spite of nearly 400 yards of offense and first downs at will; in fact, I only remember one time they were even in the red zone.  This leads us to the Achilles Heels of Brown and Bell – they’re not great at finding the end zone.  Unless it’s a 50 yard crossing pattern, Brown is simply too undersized to be a viable target inside the 10, and Bell has never scored more than 8 rushing touchdowns in a single season.

            We know Belichick’s major defensive philosophy – give up yards in between the 20 yard lines, but barrel down in the red zone.  This is why year after year, the Patriots defense gives up a surprising amount of yards but very few points.  I also believe that New England’s rush defense is substantially better than Kansas City's; Andy Reid was clueless for three quarters and only in the fourth did he use more than four defensive ends to block at the line of scrimmage.  Belichick will make adjustments quicker, and with one major exception, the Patriots have historically lights out against the run in January.

            I have to pick New England here, but two things do give me pause.  The first goes back to something I mentioned earlier – the 2016 Patriots had a filthy easy schedule.  Six games against the Dolphins/Jets/Bills, then the Rams, 49ers, Cardinals, Browns, and the Texans twice.  The most impressive quarterbacks they beat all season were probably Carson Palmer in Week 1 and Joe Flacco in Week 14.  The Patriots had an insanely easy schedule in 2011 too, and even though they reached the Super Bowl, they can thank Billy Cundiff for that.

            The other thing that gives me pause is Gronkowski’s absence.  With the exception of last week, New England has been winning games due in most part to their running game.  Brady hasn’t had to make downfield throws.  But if the Steelers get an early lead, how much faith do we really have in Brady’s receivers other than Julian Edelman?  Bennett, Amendola, and Mitchell are all listed on the injury report, and James White’s impression of Shane Vereen isn’t quite perfect just yet.  Since Gronkowski’s injury in Week 10, there hasn’t been a moment when Patriots fans have thought, “Man, I really wish Gronk was in the lineup.” If that moment doesn’t come this week, expect it to come in Houston in two weeks.

            In spite of those misgivings, Brady is the better quarterback, Belichick is the better coach, the Patriots have the better defense, and they are overall a better team.  If New England takes an early 10-0 or 14-0 lead and Pittsburgh is forced to throw, we know that Big Ben can quickly get generous in serving up desperate interceptions. With the unearthly talents of Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown, the Steelers will always be in the game, but knowing Belichick’s dissatisfaction with last week’s subpar performance, the Patriots should be able to take care of business, as always.

Prediction: New England 30, Pittsburgh 20

Playoff Doppelgänger: 2003 AFC Championship, New England 24, Indianapolis 14. The Colts were also coming off a win in Kansas City, and there were question marks about how New England would defend Indy’s specular offensive threats.  The Patriots answered those questions in their opening drive, when they calmly marched 65 yards for a touchdown without much resistance.  This Sunday, watch the Patriots’ opening drive – it will tell you everything you need to know about the eventual outcome of the game. And just for the record, Bill Belichick would make a better President than the one elected by 26 percent of the populace. 

Disagreements? Comments? Not enough anger directed at Foot Locker employees? Write them below!

Last Week: 3-1
Overall Record: 7-1

Zach's Fearless NFL Playoff Predictions 2016: Conference Championships

            Conference Championship Sunday is maybe my favorite day in all of sports.  You have the four best teams in football, none of which have the advantage of coming off a bye week, all of which are eager to play in the biggest game of the year.  You have passionate fan bases, unfriendly winter weather, and players exhausted to their core after playing the most grueling sport for five straight months.  But at the end of the day, you have two teams full of smiles, high-fives, Gatorade showers, and countless “Is this really happening?” expressions on player’s faces.  It’s only the next day when you wake up and realize you have 13 grueling and anxiety-ridden days until the actual Super Bowl is played – just enough time for the unnecessary glorified publicity stunts witch hunts.

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos (+3½)

Sunday, January 24, 3:05pm EST, CBS.

            We think we know everything about Brady-Manning XVII, but if you look more closely at the recent history of this celebrated matchup, it becomes clear that the past doesn’t tell us a whole lot.  For example, most of the talking heads this week have mentioned how Tom Brady is 11-5 lifetime (including the playoffs) against Peyton Manning.  True enough, but because Brady won the first six matchups, that statistic is misleading; since the beginning of the 2005-06 season, Manning actually leads the series 6-5 and is 2-0 in playoff games. 

            Even the most recent Broncos-Patriots matchups are difficult to put into perspective for this week.  Everyone remembers the November 29 hatchet job by the refs hard-fought victory by the Broncos, but let’s not forget that Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola did not play for the Patriots, while Dont’a Hightower and Rob Gronkowski suffered game-ending injuries prior to New England blowing a 14-point fourth quarter lead.  It’s also worth remembering that Denver’s comeback was engineered not by Manning, but by Brock Osweiler.

            And then there’s the 2013 AFC Championship game played two years ago, when Manning was coming off the greatest statistical season in NFL history and instead of a healthy Gronkowski, Brady had Austin Collie. The Broncos only scored 26 points, but it was one of the worst defensive performances I’ve ever seen from a Bill Belichick-coached team.  Manning was unstoppable that day, going 32/43 for 400 yards, and the Broncos scored on six of their eight possessions (they punted on their first, they kneeled the ball on their last). 

            The 26 points in that game were lucky – Denver couldn’t punch the ball in the red zone, and was forced to settle for field goals.  This time around, the Broncos scoring 26 points will also be a triumph of luck, but for the Denver offense, not New England’s defense.  Denver’s offense looked predictably abysmal last week against Pittsburgh, with receivers dropping wide open passes, Manning lofting throws over receivers’ heads, and the team proving to be utterly worthless on third down conversions (3 for 15).  True, they did not turn the ball over as many people suspected they would, but needed a late-game fumble by a 4^th-string runningback no one had ever heard of in order to take back the lead and eventually put the game away.  Kind of like how back in November, they needed a late-game fumble by a punt returner no one had ever heard of (and no one has heard of since).

            The Broncos thrive on opposing teams’ mistakes.  Including last week, Denver is now 12-1 in games where they force at least one takeaway.  They’re also 13-1 in games allowing 24 points or fewer, and 9-2 in games allowing 230 passing yards or less.  Now let’s consider New England: They led the league in fewest giveaways (14), they scored at least 24 points in all but three of their games (and every game that Julian Edelman was in the lineup), and Brady threw for 230+ yards in 15 of his 17 games.  In other words, New England’s offense capitalizes on the very things the Denver defense prides itself on.         

            Of course, many have asked the question of how New England plans on mounting any semblance of a ground game against the Denver defense.  Curiously, the Broncos’ two best games against the run (Week 14 vs. Oakland and Week 15 at Pittsburgh) were both losses, but because the Broncos aren’t the Colts, New England will probably not run the ball much this week anyway.  But running the ball isn’t really a priority; in games where the Patriots throw for over 270 yards, they are 10-1.  Conversely, when the Broncos throw for over 270 yards, they are a modest 5-3.

            The 26 points stat is a good one because I don’t really believe the Broncos can score that many points – at least, not with Peyton Manning at the helm and not with a healthy Patriots’ defense.  To be sure, there are a lot of unpleasant things for Patriots fans about the prospect of playing in Denver: Namely, Brady’s lifetime record there (2-6); the fact the only quarterbacks New England has defeated in Denver were Tim Tebow and Danny Kanell; the weather forecast (mildly overcast and upper-40s, as opposed to the 30 degree snowstorm conditions in Foxboro); Manning’s record in AFC championship games since 2005 (3-0); and the fact that no fourth quarter lead will be safe as a result of our inability to run the ball.

            But as a Patriots fan, I do not worry about the one thing that I’ve always worried about in the storied Brady-Manning rivalry, which is Peyton systematically tearing up our defense.  Want an absurd stat?  Two years removed from throwing 55 touchdowns in a single season, Peyton Manning has thrown a grand total of one touchdown in Denver all season, including last week.  Granted, he missed seven games due to “injury,” but one touchdown??  Brady had three touchdowns in Denver minus his top two wide receivers.  As per usual, Manning is blessed with two of the top receivers in the league (Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders), but both were bottled in in the November 29 game until they each caught 35+ yard passes in the game’s final 2:30.  The recipe for Denver is simple: Rely as little as possible on Manning’s throwing arm.  Run the ball down New England’s throat.  Pick up third-and-shorts and score touchdowns rather than field goals.  Limit Edelman and Gronkowski, while putting constant pressure on Brady.  Follow the advice of Cam Newton last week and start running the clock down in the first quarter.

            Do I believe the Broncos can do those things?  Maybe.  I’ve been surprised all year how Denver is able to pull victories out of their ass while looking completely inept.  But even when everything fell the Broncos’ way on November 29 (the blown lead, the turnovers, the officiating, the in-game injuries, and the fact that it was Osweiler at QB rather than Manning), the Patriots still ended up scoring 24 points and forcing overtime (while never touching the ball in OT).  If you’re taking Denver in this game, you believe that their man-on-man, blitzing defense can hold Brady and company under 20 points, which no team has done all year with Edelman in the lineup.  You also believe that Peyton Manning can throw touchdowns (which he hasn’t done) and that the ground game will repeat its performance on November 29 (except this time against a healthy Dont’a Hightower).  In other words, you hope for miracles, which Denver has admittedly had plenty of in 2015.  But at some point, luck runs out and the better team takes care of business.

Prediction: New England 27, Denver 17

Playoff Doppelganger: 2004 AFC Championship, New England 41, Pittsburgh 27.  The Steelers had a great defense but problems at QB (a shaky rookie rather than a grizzled veteran who requires HGH nothing more than leadership and faith).  The defending champion Pats had gone into Pittsburgh earlier in the year lost badly; this was their revenge game.  It’s difficult to expect the one-sidedness that that game quickly turned into, but going into the game, there were few people that ever truly doubted the result. 

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers (-3½)

Sunday, January 24, 6:40pm EST, Fox.

            See if you can answer this simple question.  Last week, Quarterback A went 25 of 41 for 349 yards and three touchdowns.  Quarterback B finished 16 for 22 for 161 yards, one touchdown, and carried the ball 11 times for three yards.  So which quarterback had the better week?

            Of course, by this point you should know that Quarterback A is Carson Palmer and Quarterback B is Cam Newton, and it’s not really a fair question since both teams won their games and both offenses are designed differently (as well as the convenient omission that Quarterback A threw two bad interceptions).  But hopefully, the point is clear that many football statistics are deceptive.  For example, anyone who watched both quarterbacks last week would know that Cam looked considerably better, calmer, and more confident than Palmer.  Maybe it’s easier to play that way when you’re spotted a 31-point lead. 

            In any event, it’s now officially time to start worrying about Carson Palmer’s finger, no matter what the team and its former superstars are saying about the extent of his injury.  Or to put it another way: Given how bad several of his passes were last week, would it be any real consolation to Arizona fans if they found out Palmer wasn’t injured?  Then he’s just jittery, unproven, and bad at making decisions in crunch time – and all this against a mediocre Green Bay secondary at home.  More worrisome statistics from last week’s game: Between 6:48 in the first quarter (when Palmer threw a touchdown to Michael Floyd) and 3:44 of the fourth quarter (Floyd’s second receiving TD), Arizona mustered a grand total of 3 points, along with two punts and two interceptions.  David Johnson was ineffective on the ground all game (15 carries for 35 yards), and even though the Packers were extra sinful and needed two Hail Marys to force overtime, the Cardinals’ secondary still gave up 200 combined receiving yards to the uber-Caucasian combination of Jeff Janis and Jared Abbrederis.

            If you’re a Cardinals fan, you try your darndest to invoke the magic of the 2008 team (God, puppies, and Pakistan) and remember that the best receiver on the field this Sunday will be Larry Legend who, in his eight postseason games, has amassed an unreal 53 receptions for 912 yards and 10 touchdowns.  You can also still revel in the fact that in his four postseason games, Cam Newton still hasn’t had “that” game – you know, the one where he throws for 350 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 50 yards on the ground for an overtime win.  Actually, maybe that’s a bad omen if you’re rooting for Arizona this weekend.  But in any event, Carolina’s two playoff victories under Cam (one of which came last year against the Ryan Lindley-led Cardinals) have required very little from their quarterback.  And in case you forgot, the Cardinals still have an outstanding defense, while the Panthers still have Ted Ginn, Philly Brown, and Jerricho Cotchery.

            But I like Carolina in this game for reasons more than just Arizona’s shortcomings last week.  I believe Carolina and Seattle were the two best teams heading into last weekend, and we all saw the damage the Panthers are capable of reeking when putting their foot on the gas pedal.  Many thought Riverboat Ron was not deserving of his nickname last week when he opted to start running down the clock in the first quarter, but technically, such a conservative strategy was still pretty risky knowing the Seahawks’ flair for second-half comebacks (in case you don’t believe me, just ask Mike McCarthy).  Cam occasionally looked frustrated at being bottled up, but the Panthers looked comfortable taking care of business on third down and did indeed rush for 144 yards against the vaunted Seattle defense.  Arizona and Seattle are similar in some areas (such as lack of consistent running game and excellence at home), but different in a few crucial ones: The Seahawks have a mobile, duel-threat quarterback known for his insane improvisation; the Seahawks have had the league’s best defense the past four years; and they have been to the Super Bowl the last two.  In other words, Arizona feels a lot less intimidating than Seattle.

            While I’m weary of statistics, a few do jump out.  One is that in its first ten games, Arizona scored 30+ points on seven occasions.  In the seven games after that, Arizona has only scored 30+ points twice.  The Cardinals will have to score points in order to keep up with the Panthers, who led the league in offense and like the Patriots, scored 27 points or more in all but three games.  The Panthers obviously thrive off the run, but in the three games where Arizona has given up 140 yards or more on the ground, they are 0-3.  Carolina also led the league in most takeaways; Arizona finished 17^th in the league in giveaways.  Arizona is 10-0 in games where they rushed for more than 115 yards; Carolina only permitted four such games, all of which ended up being Panthers victories.

            Bruce Arians is a great coach and Larry Legend is a great receiver, but the Panthers are the league’s most complete team.  Last week eliminated any doubts about their weak schedule, Cam’s playoff credentials, or taking on proven opponents in big games.  Like I said earlier, because last week’s game was such a blowout early, we only saw a fraction of what they are truly capable of.  Cam Newton being held to three rushing yards feels about as unlikely as Carson Palmer pulling a Kurt Warner (with Newton simultaneously combusting into Jake Delhomme). 

Prediction: Carolina 30, Arizona 13

           

Playoff Doppelganger: 2006 NFC Championship, Chicago 39, New Orleans 14.  Cam is certainly better than Rex Grossman, but the Bears had the league’s most dominant defense and a bruising, effective running game.  They controlled the clock, wreaked havoc on the Saints’ offensive line, and took care of business one week after eliminating the defending NFC champion Seahawks.  On a side note, this is the last NFC Championship Game that was decided by more than 7 points.

Thoughts? Disagreements? Looking forward to a Super Bowl 38 rematch as much as I am? Let me know below! 

Zach's Fearless NFL Playoff Predictions 2015: Conference Championships

            It’s championship Sunday!  What better antidote to witnessing the unthinkably catastrophic than six hours of in-your-face, edge-of-your-seat, mildly predictable NFL football?  Here is the only thing we know right now: The four remaining teams in the NFL playoffs unquestionably deserve to be here.  Need some reasons why?  Take a look at the resumes of the final four contenders for this year’s Super Bowl:

A.    The defending Super Bowl champs with the best defense since the 2000 Ravens and maybe the best homefield advantage in league history.

B.     The greatest playoff quarterback/coach combination of all time with arguably its most talented lineup – on both sides of the ball – ever.

C.     This year’s NFL MVP looking for his second title, but this time with a substantially better running game and defensive line.

D.    The most versatile young quarterback in football coming off a career-defining win against his franchise’s most venerated figure (and the only aforementioned team to defeat Team A).

            But of course the very thing that makes the NFL so compelling and decidedly unpredictable is that depending on your outlook, you could also characterize those four teams in the following ways:

A.    A team that just beat a 7-win team with a hobbling QB at home, still struggling to overcome injuries, and is by all accounts facing its first quality quarterback since Week 6.

B.     A team that last week had to overcome two 14-point deficits while rushing for 14 yards.

C.     A team going against a squad it has lost to by margins of 25, 21, and 22 points in its last three games since 2012.

D.    A team traveling into the toughest environment to play in the NFL, having lost four regular-season road games by an average of 15 points.

            Depending on which perspective you agree with, you can look like either a genius or a moron after Sunday’s slate of games.  But as General Eisenhower once said, “Preparation is everything until the battle starts, and then it doesn’t mean anything.”  Thus, without further ado, here are my observations and picks for this weekend that soon won’t mean anything.

Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks (- 7½)
Sunday, January 18, 3:05pm EST, FOX.

            Are the Packers really one of those classic New Orleans Saints/Atlanta Falcons/(dare-I-say) Seattle Seahawks type Jeckyll-and-Hyde teams that look phenomenal at home but lousy on the road?  This is the critical question going into this Sunday’s matchup because if the Packers have any hope of upsetting the Seahawks, they will have to play a virtually perfect game.  This may be a lot to ask, considering that Aaron Rodgers is at roughly 70 percent health, that last week Tony Romo (143.6 QB rating) and company probably should have won,  and that the Packers already lost by 20 points to the Seahawks at Qwest Field earlier this season. 

            Is there any meaningful evidence to suggest that the Packers’ woes on the road are statistical outliers?  For Seahawk haters like myself who are desperate for hope, there is some relief in this category.  Green Bay’s Sunday night loss to the Saints on October 26 has to be thrown out due to Rodgers’ injury midway through the game.  Their loss to the Bills on December 21 came against a stellar Buffalo defense that also beat the Lions and Patriots and nearly beat the Broncos.  That leaves the Pack’s other two losses, both of which occurred in the first three weeks of the season (before Aaron Rodgers to everyone to relaxxxxx).  Yes, Green Bay scored a ton more points at home (316) than they did on the road (168) and Rodgers’ QB rating was comically better at home (109.8 or above in every game) than on the road (109.7 or below in every game but one).  But their takeaway totals were about even (14 at home, 13 on the road), as were Eddie Lacy’s rush totals (601 yards at home, 538 on the road).  Hey those things are important, right?

            If you’re going to believe that Green Bay has a chance to win, you have to invest faith in the theory that the NFC Championship Game has sometime produced fluky results – especially when it involves teams from the old NFC Central.  Remember the infamous Gary Anderson game in 1999 when Minnesota was an 11-point favorite and did the unthinkable by losing to lowly Atlanta?  Or the Bert Emmanuel game in 2000 when the Greatest Show on Turf was held to 11 points – and still won?  Or when the Kerry Collins-led Giants did their best impression of the ’85 Bears and beat the Vikings 41-0?  Even last year was pretty weird; the Seahawks had dominated the 49ers at home in their previous two contests, but found themselves quicky trailing 10-0 and needed three fourth-quarter Kaepernick turnovers and horrendous officiating to eek out a close victory.  Did you know that each of the last seven NFC title games have been decided by 7 points or less?

            If you’re going to believe that Green Bay can win, you have to go back to January 2011 when the Packers won three road games en route to an improbable Super Bowl championship.  In that NFC title game, Rodgers was statistically subpar (17/30 passing, 0 TDs, 2 INTs) and the Packers nearly survived a late rally helmed by the inimitable Caleb Hanie.  You also have to believe that the Packers can line one of their three outstanding receivers (Adams, Cobb, Nelson) against Richard Sherman and still have two dangerous downfield vertical threats.  You have to believe that the Green Bay coaching staff will make considerable adjustments since the two teams’ Week One matchup, in which Rodgers was held under 200 yards, no Green Bay rusher had over 38 yards, the Packers had eight penalties, and the Seattle offensive line was barely challenged.  You have to believe the Seahawks have had fun feasting on the Ryan Lindleys and Shaun Hills of the league and as a result, their defensive statistics have been exaggerated and overlook key injuries to Brandon Mebane, Jordan Hill, and Tony McDaniel.  And you have to believe that if Aaron Rodgers really is the MVP of the NFL, he will play like one in spite of grievous overacting injuries.

            So there you have it: The best case scenario for the Packers.  As you can probably tell, those are not really substantive reasons.  The Seahawks are a not only a significantly better team than the Packers, but the luckier one: Instead of a rematch with the lone team (Dallas) to defeat them in Seattle – the same team that went 8-0 on the road in the regular season, and is a much healthier and worrisome matchup – they get the hobbled team that can’t play on the road and needed a controversial call to cement what should have been a much more authoritative win.  There’s no argument that the Packers are a classic Jeckyll-and-Hyde team, and the most damning evidence that they cannot win on the road is this: Their 2014 road victories came against Chicago (by 21 points), Tampa Bay (17 points), Minnesota (3 points), and Miami (a 3-point win coming on Rodgers’ miraculous last-second touchdown to Andrew Quarless).  You’re telling me that a team whose only impressive road wins came against a 2-win Bucs team and this guy can suddenly march into the most fearsome stadium in pro football and come away with a win?   

            But it’s more than just the Seahawks’ homefield advantage.  The Packers offensive line is mediocre at best, and will have a mighty challenge trying to defend a quarterback whose mobility has been taken away.  News has come out of Green Bay this week that Eddie Lacy is now banged up (maybe suffering from a food hangover after an all-night cheeseburger binge?) and the defensive line gave up over 5 yards per carry last week to the Cowboys.  We all know who the Seahawks are – the team that looks offensively incompetent for two-and-a-half quarters until a big defensive play effectively clinches the game.  They’re also a team which only loses because of insane fake punts or overheating or playing legit quarterbacks away from home.  They don’t lose games they’re expected to win, against teams they’ve already beat, against quarterbacks who are injured, in front of a national TV audience.  This one will be over in the first quarter.

Prediction: Seattle 44, Green Bay 10.

Playoff doppelganger: 2000 NFC Championship, New York 41, Minnesota 0.  This game was over in the first five minutes, when the Giants took a 14-0 lead after two Vikings turnovers and never looked back.  The most memorable thing about this game?  Besides the ridiculous overhype it gave the otherwise mediocre Giants (the 2000 Ravens were only favored by 3 points in Super Bowl 35), the over/under for this game was 41½.  When it was 34-0 at halftime (and 41-0 with 12:13 left in the 3^rd Quarter), those who took the over were buying rounds of drinks for everyone at the bar, celebrating the easiest bet in the history of sports gambling.  Whoops.  For those of us who took the under (like me and my dad), it was one of the most nervous, tense, and heart-pounding quarters-and-a-half of 41-0 blowout football anyone’s ever seen.  Long live Kerry Collins!

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (-7)

Sunday, January 18, 6:40pm EST, CBS.

            Can we talk about Tom Brady for a second?  This last weekend was pretty big for him.  For the first 10 years of his career, his biggest foe in the AFC was Peyton Manning and the Colts, but since 2011 the rivalry has sharply shifted to the Baltimore Ravens, a team whose defense always had Brady’s number.  Last week not only did Brady singlehandedly beat the Ravens (and definitively answer the eternal “Brady vs. Manning” debate by the end of the weekend) but tore the Baltimore secondary apart with his throwing arm.  He also had one of the top-five best throws of his career in the first NFL playoff game where a team overcame two different 14-point deficits.  

            Side note: I didn’t see the final ten minutes of last week’s game.  I had to make an airport run (I did listen to the radio broadcast).  I’ve missed a surprising number of fantastic Patriots finishes over the last few years: The Saints in 2013 (on a cross-country road trip), the 24-point comeback against the Broncos (on a plane), and the onside kick game against the Browns (on a jog after I thought a 12-point deficit with two minutes left was too much for Tom and company).  I’ve certainly been there for all the bad finishes – don’t worry about that.  More evidence for why I shouldn’t even bother to watch the inevitable Patriots-Seahawks Super Bowl?

            Here’s the question I have about this week’s game: Both of these teams are coming off improbable, once-in-every-three-seasons type wins.   We know about the Patriots, but how often do you go into Peyton Manning’s home stadium in the playoffs with an unproven running game and mediocre secondary, score only 24 points, and come away with a win?  (I’m not even including the two interceptions thrown by Luck, or the ten penalties, or the missed field goal by the greatest kicker of all time).  Sure, there are certain types of unbelievable, improbable, come-from-behind wins that propel a team toward a championship (ask Joe Flaccid).  But what the Patriots and Colts did last week were respective gifts from the gods and frankly it feels weird that one of them will win at least one more game this postseason.

            All signs in this matchup point to New England.  In the Andrew Luck era, the Pats have defeated the Colts by scores of 59-24, 43-22, and 42-20.  In two of those games, New England had rusher slash the Indianapolis defense for over 160 yards and four touchdowns.  Luck has thrown a total of eight interceptions against the Patriots and has never had a lead after the second quarter.  In their most recent matchup two months ago, the Colts’ best rusher (Ahmad Bradshaw) was injured in the first half and Indy mustered a paltry 19 yards on the ground all game (I don’t think it was Belichick’s intention to replicate that game plan versus the Ravens last week).  The Colts were also missing Dwayne Allen and both teams were sorely missing the Jones Brothers, Chandler and Arthur. 

            Luck is obviously a talented quarterback who has stepped up this postseason (and his porous numbers against the Pats scream “small sampling”), but to be honest, the Colts’ success has been mostly due to their defense.  Excluding their Week 16 debacle in Dallas, Indianapolis has only allowed 43 points in its last four games and has been especially stout in defending the pass; they’ve allowed only one 300-yard passer since their bye on November 9 (props for the three of you who correctly guessed that that passer was Colt McCoy).  The brilliant game planning of Belichick Jr. Chuck Pagano has called for superb man coverage by Vontae Davis and LaRon Landry, and with the absence of Patriots OL Bryan Stork, I highly doubt New England will annihilate the Colts on the ground like they’ve done so in the past.  I do question how the Colts plan to defend Rob Gronkowski, but it’s not like any team has successfully done so all season (Gronk had only four catches for 71 yards and a TD on November 16, which wasn’t terrible).

            I watch the Patriots far more than I like to admit (except, naturally, during their clutch wins) and I intimately know the way this team loses games: When they can’t pick up first downs, when they can’t stop the run, when they’re playing from behind, and when they’re held to field goals.  Those are not radical observations, but it was noteworthy how the Ravens were able successfully hold the Patriots to three of those four things (fortunately for New England, Stephen Gostkowski’s leg was a virtual non-factor last week).  The Colts will have to replicate the Ravens’ success in those categories, plus one additional component that Baltimore failed to tap into last Saturday: They can’t settle.  The Ravens looked unstoppable on long passes last week, but chose to go away from that game plan when they had leads of 14-0 and 28-14.  It’s certainly understandable in those situations to opt for more conservative game calling (especially when Forsett was torching the Pats’ defense in the way that he was) but Baltimore lost its aggressive edge until it was too late – and it was precisely that aggression that, perhaps poetically, led to its downfall.

            The Patriots feel like a considerably better team than the Colts – but then again, they felt like a considerably better team against the Ravens in the 2012 AFC Championship game, and also the considerably better team against Mark Sanchez and the Jets in 2010.  Last season’s loss to the Broncos was the first time in a while Patriots fans weren’t necessarily shocked to lose in January.  Would I be shocked if the Patriots lose this Sunday?  Considering how bad they looked at times last week (along with their increasingly long list of post-2004 bad playoff performances), I cannot say I would be shocked.  Preparation or prognostication doesn’t mean anything, to paraphrase our 34^th President.  But I would be surprised if they lose, and regardless of the outcome of this game, Seattle fans should be worried (and not just because what 50 Shades of Grey did to the city of Seattle, the new Gronkowski erotic novella will do for Boston). 

Prediction: New England 34, Indianapolis 27.

Playoff doppelganger: Either the 2007 AFC Championship (New England 21, San Diego 12), or the 2012 AFC Championship (Baltimore 28, New England 13).  Either we’re playing an injured team coming off a huge win over Peyton Manning on the road – a team coming off its best game of the season and is just happy to be there – or a team we have an excessive amount of confidence against, gleefully overlooking the fact that the post-2004 Patriots lay more playoff duds than Tom Brady douchebag photo shoots.  

Thoughts? Disagreements? Impressed that in September I predicted a Patriots-Seahawks Super Bowl? Let me know below.