Conference
Championship Sunday is maybe my favorite day in all of sports. You have the four best teams in football,
none of which have the advantage of coming off a bye week, all of which are
eager to play in the biggest game of the year.
You have passionate fan bases, unfriendly winter weather, and players
exhausted to their core after playing the most grueling sport for five straight
months. But at the end of the day, you have
two teams full of smiles, high-fives, Gatorade showers, and countless “Is this
really happening?” expressions on player’s faces. It’s only the next day when you wake up and
realize you have 13 grueling and anxiety-ridden days until the actual Super
Bowl is played – just enough time for the unnecessary glorified publicity
stunts witch hunts.
New England Patriots
at Denver Broncos (+3½)
Sunday, January 24,
3:05pm EST, CBS.
We think we know everything about
Brady-Manning XVII, but if you look more closely at the recent history of this
celebrated matchup, it becomes clear that the past doesn’t tell us a whole
lot. For example, most of the talking
heads this week have mentioned how Tom Brady is 11-5 lifetime (including the
playoffs) against Peyton Manning. True
enough, but because Brady won the first six matchups, that statistic is
misleading; since the beginning of the 2005-06 season, Manning actually leads
the series 6-5 and is 2-0 in playoff games.
Even the most recent
Broncos-Patriots matchups are difficult to put into perspective for this
week. Everyone remembers the November 29
hatchet job by the refs hard-fought victory by the Broncos, but let’s
not forget that Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola did not play for the
Patriots, while Dont’a Hightower and Rob Gronkowski suffered game-ending
injuries prior to New England blowing a 14-point fourth quarter lead. It’s also worth remembering that Denver’s
comeback was engineered not by Manning, but by Brock Osweiler.
And then there’s the 2013 AFC
Championship game played two years ago, when Manning was coming off the
greatest statistical season in NFL history and instead of a healthy Gronkowski,
Brady had Austin Collie. The Broncos only scored 26 points, but it was one of
the worst defensive performances I’ve ever seen from a Bill Belichick-coached
team. Manning was unstoppable that day,
going 32/43 for 400 yards, and the Broncos scored on six of their eight
possessions (they punted on their first, they kneeled the ball on their
last).
The 26 points in that game were
lucky – Denver couldn’t punch the ball in the red zone, and was forced to
settle for field goals. This time around,
the Broncos scoring 26 points will also be a triumph of luck, but for the
Denver offense, not New England’s defense.
Denver’s offense looked predictably abysmal last week against Pittsburgh,
with receivers dropping wide open passes, Manning lofting throws over receivers’
heads, and the team proving to be utterly worthless on third down conversions
(3 for 15). True, they did not turn the
ball over as many people suspected they would, but needed a late-game fumble by
a 4th-string runningback no one had ever heard of in order to take
back the lead and eventually put the game away.
Kind of like how back in November, they needed a late-game fumble by a
punt returner no one had ever heard of (and no one has heard
of since).
The Broncos thrive on opposing teams’
mistakes. Including last week, Denver is
now 12-1 in games where they force at least one takeaway. They’re also 13-1 in games allowing 24 points
or fewer, and 9-2 in games allowing 230 passing yards or less. Now let’s consider New England: They led the
league in fewest giveaways (14), they scored at least 24 points in all but three
of their games (and every game that Julian Edelman was in the lineup), and
Brady threw for 230+ yards in 15 of his 17 games. In other words, New England’s offense capitalizes
on the very things the Denver defense prides itself on.
Of course, many have asked the
question of how New England plans on mounting any semblance of a ground game
against the Denver defense. Curiously,
the Broncos’ two best games against the run (Week 14 vs. Oakland and Week 15 at
Pittsburgh) were both losses, but because the Broncos aren’t the Colts, New
England will probably not run the ball much this week anyway. But running the ball isn’t really a priority;
in games where the Patriots throw for over 270 yards, they are 10-1. Conversely, when the Broncos throw for over
270 yards, they are a modest 5-3.
The 26 points stat is a good one
because I don’t really believe the Broncos can score that many points – at least,
not with Peyton Manning at the helm and not with a healthy Patriots’
defense. To be sure, there are a lot of
unpleasant things for Patriots fans about the prospect of playing in Denver: Namely,
Brady’s lifetime record there (2-6); the fact the only quarterbacks New England
has defeated in Denver were Tim Tebow and Danny Kanell; the weather forecast (mildly
overcast and upper-40s, as opposed to the 30 degree snowstorm conditions in
Foxboro); Manning’s record in AFC championship games since 2005 (3-0); and the
fact that no fourth quarter lead will be safe as a result of our inability to
run the ball.
But as a Patriots fan, I do not
worry about the one thing that I’ve always worried about in the storied
Brady-Manning rivalry, which is Peyton systematically tearing up our
defense. Want an absurd stat? Two years removed from throwing 55 touchdowns
in a single season, Peyton Manning has thrown a grand total of one touchdown in
Denver all season, including last week.
Granted, he missed seven games due to “injury,” but one touchdown?? Brady had three touchdowns in Denver minus his
top two wide receivers. As per usual,
Manning is blessed with two of the top receivers in the league (Demaryius
Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders), but both were bottled in in the November 29 game
until they each caught 35+ yard passes in the game’s final 2:30. The recipe for Denver is simple: Rely as
little as possible on Manning’s throwing arm.
Run the ball down New England’s throat.
Pick up third-and-shorts and score touchdowns rather than field
goals. Limit Edelman and Gronkowski,
while putting constant pressure on Brady.
Follow the advice of Cam Newton last week and start running the clock
down in the first quarter.
Do I believe the Broncos can do
those things? Maybe. I’ve been surprised all year how Denver is
able to pull victories out of their ass while looking completely inept. But even when everything fell the Broncos’
way on November 29 (the blown lead, the turnovers, the officiating, the in-game
injuries, and the fact that it was Osweiler at QB rather than Manning), the
Patriots still ended up scoring 24 points and forcing overtime (while never
touching the ball in OT). If you’re
taking Denver in this game, you believe that their man-on-man, blitzing defense
can hold Brady and company under 20 points, which no team has done all year
with Edelman in the lineup. You also
believe that Peyton Manning can throw touchdowns (which he hasn’t done) and
that the ground game will repeat its performance on November 29 (except this
time against a healthy Dont’a Hightower).
In other words, you hope for miracles, which Denver has admittedly had plenty of in
2015. But at some point, luck runs out
and the better team takes care of business.
Prediction: New England 27, Denver 17
Playoff Doppelganger: 2004 AFC
Championship, New England 41, Pittsburgh 27.
The Steelers had a great defense but problems at QB (a shaky rookie
rather than a grizzled veteran who requires HGH nothing more than
leadership and faith). The defending
champion Pats had gone into Pittsburgh earlier in the year lost badly; this was
their revenge game. It’s difficult to
expect the one-sidedness that that game quickly turned into, but going into the
game, there were few people that ever truly doubted the result.
Arizona Cardinals at
Carolina Panthers (-3½)
Sunday, January 24,
6:40pm EST, Fox.
See if you can
answer this simple question. Last week,
Quarterback A went 25 of 41 for 349 yards and three touchdowns. Quarterback B finished 16 for 22 for 161
yards, one touchdown, and carried the ball 11 times for three yards. So which quarterback had the better week?
Of course, by this point you should know
that Quarterback A is Carson Palmer and Quarterback B is Cam Newton, and it’s
not really a fair question since both teams won their games and both offenses
are designed differently (as well as the convenient omission that Quarterback A
threw two bad interceptions). But
hopefully, the point is clear that many football statistics are deceptive. For example, anyone who watched both
quarterbacks last week would know that Cam looked considerably better, calmer,
and more confident than Palmer. Maybe it’s
easier to play that way when you’re spotted a 31-point lead.
In any event, it’s now officially time
to start worrying about Carson Palmer’s finger, no matter what the team and its
former superstars are saying about the extent of his injury. Or to put it another way: Given how bad several of his passes
were last week, would it be any real consolation to Arizona fans if they found
out Palmer wasn’t injured? Then he’s just jittery, unproven, and bad at
making decisions in crunch time – and all this against a mediocre Green Bay
secondary at home. More worrisome
statistics from last week’s game: Between 6:48 in the first quarter (when
Palmer threw a touchdown to Michael Floyd) and 3:44 of the fourth quarter (Floyd’s
second receiving TD), Arizona mustered a grand total of 3 points, along with
two punts and two interceptions. David
Johnson was ineffective on the ground all game (15 carries for 35 yards), and
even though the Packers were extra sinful and needed two Hail Marys to force overtime,
the Cardinals’ secondary still gave up 200 combined receiving yards to the uber-Caucasian
combination of Jeff Janis and Jared Abbrederis.
If you’re a Cardinals fan, you try
your darndest to invoke the magic of the 2008 team (God, puppies, and Pakistan) and remember that the best receiver on the field
this Sunday will be Larry Legend who, in his eight postseason games, has
amassed an unreal 53 receptions for 912 yards and 10 touchdowns. You can also still revel in the fact that in
his four postseason games, Cam Newton still hasn’t had “that” game – you know,
the one where he throws for 350 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 50 yards on the ground
for an overtime win. Actually, maybe
that’s a bad omen if you’re rooting for Arizona this weekend. But in any event, Carolina’s two playoff
victories under Cam (one of which came last year against the Ryan Lindley-led
Cardinals) have required very little from their quarterback. And in case you forgot, the Cardinals still
have an outstanding defense, while the Panthers still have Ted Ginn, Philly
Brown, and Jerricho Cotchery.
But I like Carolina in this game for
reasons more than just Arizona’s shortcomings last week. I believe Carolina and Seattle were the two
best teams heading into last weekend, and we all saw the damage the Panthers
are capable of reeking when putting their foot on the gas pedal. Many thought Riverboat Ron was not deserving
of his nickname last week when he opted to start running down the clock in the
first quarter, but technically, such a conservative strategy was still pretty
risky knowing the Seahawks’ flair for second-half comebacks (in case you don’t
believe me, just ask Mike McCarthy). Cam
occasionally looked frustrated at being bottled up, but the Panthers looked
comfortable taking care of business on third down and did indeed rush for 144
yards against the vaunted Seattle defense.
Arizona and Seattle are similar in some areas (such as lack of
consistent running game and excellence at home), but different in a few crucial
ones: The Seahawks have a mobile, duel-threat quarterback known for his insane
improvisation; the Seahawks have had the league’s best defense the past four
years; and they have been to the Super Bowl the last two. In other words, Arizona feels a lot less
intimidating than Seattle.
While I’m weary of statistics, a few
do jump out. One is that in its first
ten games, Arizona scored 30+ points on seven occasions. In the seven games after that, Arizona has
only scored 30+ points twice. The Cardinals
will have to score points in order to keep up with the Panthers, who led the
league in offense and like the Patriots, scored 27 points or more in all but
three games. The Panthers obviously
thrive off the run, but in the three games where Arizona has given up 140 yards
or more on the ground, they are 0-3.
Carolina also led the league in most takeaways; Arizona finished 17th
in the league in giveaways. Arizona is 10-0
in games where they rushed for more than 115 yards; Carolina only permitted
four such games, all of which ended up being Panthers victories.
Bruce Arians is a great coach and
Larry Legend is a great receiver, but the Panthers are the league’s most
complete team. Last week eliminated any
doubts about their weak schedule, Cam’s playoff credentials, or taking on
proven opponents in big games. Like I
said earlier, because last week’s game was such a blowout early, we only saw a
fraction of what they are truly capable of.
Cam Newton being held to three rushing yards feels about as unlikely as
Carson Palmer pulling a Kurt Warner (with Newton simultaneously combusting into
Jake Delhomme).
Prediction: Carolina 30, Arizona 13
Playoff Doppelganger: 2006 NFC
Championship, Chicago 39, New Orleans 14.
Cam is certainly better than Rex Grossman, but the Bears had the league’s
most dominant defense and a bruising, effective running game. They controlled the clock, wreaked havoc on
the Saints’ offensive line, and took care of business one week after
eliminating the defending NFC champion Seahawks. On a side note, this is the last NFC
Championship Game that was decided by more than 7 points.
Thoughts?
Disagreements? Looking forward to a Super Bowl 38 rematch as much as I am? Let
me know below!
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