Thursday, January 14, 2016

Reactions to the Oscar Nominations: 2016

Surprises, once again, were rampant in the nominations announcement this morning. It is a bit frustrating that I spend the whole year predicting these and still know nothing, but it is also refreshing that it is never so predictable that a fan with a blog cannot make the announcements a mere formality. It is my favorite time of the year. Here are my annual reactions to all of the categories and how I did with my final predictions. For the first time, I did last minute predictions, which seemed to make me do worse than I did a couple weeks ago, but they were published, so I will go with what I did yesterday. Without further ado, here are your nominations for the 88th Annual Academy Awards…

BEST PICTURE
The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Room
Spotlight
Predicted: 7 for 8
Reactions: The only one I missed was Brooklyn, which I had replaced by Carol. How exactly do they leave it off? I have no idea. It performed so well in all of the other categories. One of the other major surprises is that Straight Outta Compton, which received an Original Screenplay nomination, was left off this list. Star Wars: The Force Awakens, the biggest movie of all time, was also left off. It is a strange category. I can’t remember the last time I honestly had no idea what the frontrunner was. It appears to be The Revenant, but no director has ever had back-to-back Best Pictures.
Preliminary prediction: Spotlight

BEST DIRECTOR
Adam McKay – The Big Short
George Miller – Mad Max: Fury Road
Alejandro G. Inarritu – The Revenant
Lenny Abrahamson – Room
Thomas McCarthy – Spotlight
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: After being snubbed by BAFTA, McCarthy makes an appearance here, reaffirming his film’s frontrunner status. The only one I missed out on was Abrahamason, which I had in my first final predictions, but he ended up taking the place of one of the frontrunners Ridley Scott for The Martian. That snub really surprises me, but then again, it was a “comedy”. This is one of those classic times where the winner of this category is not necessarily going to be the director of the Best Picture. Spotlight’s direction was a bit scattered, so this is going to either Inarritu or Miller, unless they really take to The Big Short and it is in for a sweep. I find that hard to believe. No one has won back to back since 1940-1941 until…
Preliminary prediction: Alejandro G. Inarritu

BEST ACTOR
Bryan Cranston – Trumbo
Matt Damon – The Martian
Leonardo DiCaprio – The Revenant
Michael Fassbender – Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne – The Danish Girl
Predicted: 5 for 5
Reactions: In the end, this was the easiest category to predict. Will Smith and Johnny Depp had movies that underperformed all awards season, so getting left off is not a surprise. No actor has won back to back since Tom Hanks in 1993-1994, plus Redmayne’s movie sucks, so he can’t win. Oh, who am I kidding? This is over. Leo!
Preliminary prediction: Leonardo DiCaprio

BEST ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett – Carol
Brie Larson – Room
Jennifer Lawrence – Joy
Charlotte Rampling – 45 Years
Saoirse Ronan – Brooklyn
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: The only one I missed here was Rampling because I had Alicia Vikander as lead for The Danish Girl. It is an absolute joke that she and Rooney Mara are supporting, but that’s how it goes sometimes. Rampling will likely have a lot of support from the Academy, but Brie Larson seems to have this wrapped up. Jennifer Lawrence…wow. She is the new Streep.
Preliminary prediction: Brie Larson


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Christian Bale – The Big Short
Tom Hardy – The Revenant
Mark Ruffalo – Spotlight
Mark Rylance – Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone – Creed
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: The only one I missed was Tom Hardy, which I had replaced with Idris Elba for Beasts of No Nation (shut out). Stallone’s nomination establishes him as the frontrunner. It was going to be a climb to get nominated by his peers, but Academy-wide, he should absolutely dominate this race. He got the biggest applause of any nomination during the announcements.
Preliminary prediction: Sylvester Stallone


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jennifer Jason Leigh – The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara – Carol
Rachel McAdams – Spotlight
Alicia Vikander – The Danish Girl
Kate Winslet – Steve Jobs
Predicted: 5 for 5
Reactions: I am going to call this 5-5, even though I had Vikander’s other movie. That is about as close as you get. She and Mara are going to make this category extremely interesting. With the other televised shows coming up, we will see which of the two is going to be the frontrunner for the Oscar. They don’t always compete in the same category, though. This seems wide open. Kate Winslet can’t win like she did at the Globes, right? Right…
Preliminary prediction: Rooney Mara

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Bridge of Spies
Ex Machina
Inside Out
Spotlight
Straight Outta Compton
Predicted: 3 for 5
Reactions: No Tarantino? Seriously? Yikes. I missed Straight Outta Compton and Ex Machina. I had in The Hateful Eight, obviously, and Sicario. Both of those snubs are surprising and seriously off-putting, but it is what it is. Spotlight has this sewn up. There is no chance it loses, unless they want to give the Coens another Oscar.
Preliminary prediction: Spotlight

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Big Short
Brooklyn
Carol
The Martian
Room
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: I missed The Martian in favor of Steve Jobs, you know, the Golden Globe winner. Aaron Sorkin. Academy favorite. Whatever. That snub makes ZERO sense. But Drew Goddard getting the nom is insanely cool. This category seems pretty wide open. The Big Short would be the traditional winner, but is the guy behind Ron Burgundy really going to be an Oscar winner? Carol should win, but won’t. Carol and Room could be the first solo female winners in this category since 1995. Brooklyn getting in is a nice touch…beautiful screenplay.
Preliminary prediction: The Big Short

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Carol
The Hateful Eight
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Sicario
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: I had Bridge of Spies in for Carol. This is actually what the category should look like. There are some big name guys in this group. This one should go right down to the wire.
Preliminary prediction: Sicario

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Bridge of Spies
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Predicted: 3 for 5
Reactions: I had Carol and Star Wars in for The Martian and The Revenant. This is an interesting group. It is somewhat reminiscent of 2007. The Revenant is a non-traditional contender like There Will Be Blood was, but it is probably the frontrunner. But…
Preliminary prediction: Mad Max: Fury Road

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Carol
Cinderella
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Predicted: 3 for 5
Reactions: I had Crimson Peak in for a surprise and Brooklyn as well in place of Mad Max and The Revenant. The latter is a strange nominee, but a cool one at the same time.
Preliminary prediction: The Danish Girl

BEST SOUND MIXING
Bridge of Spies
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: I had Jurassic World in for Bridge of Spies. That movie performed a lot better than I expected. This category usually goes to action movies, and we have 3 of them here. If Star Wars wins anything, it is this, but I don’t think that is too high on the Academy’s priority list.
Preliminary prediction: The Revenant

BEST FILM EDITING
The Big Short
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Spotlight
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: I missed Star Wars in favor of The Martian. This is the category of contenders, minus that snub, of course. I think it can only really go one way, though…
Preliminary prediction: The Revenant

BEST SOUND EFFECTS EDITING
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Sicario
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: I had Everest in for Sicario. That is a cool surprise nomination, there. Typically, this category goes hand in hand with Sound Mixing, but this year could be different. It is usually all about more traditional action movies.
Preliminary prediction: Mad Max: Fury Road

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Ex Machina
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: I had The Walk getting that sort of Hereafter nomination over Ex Machina, which is well-deserved. This category is absolutely stacked. There are not usually this many Best Picture contenders in this category.
Preliminary prediction: Mad Max: Fury Road

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Mad Max: Fury Road
The 100-Year Old Man Who Climbed Out The Window and Disappeared
The Revenant
Predicted: 2 for 3
Reactions: I had Black Mass in over that long title. Is that going to be our winner? That would have to be the longest title to ever win an Oscar. Can I get some fact checking on that?
Preliminary prediction: The Revenant

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Earned It” – Fifty Shades of Grey
“Manta Ray” – Racing Extinction
“Simple Song No. 3” – Youth
“Til It Happens To You” – The Hunting Ground
“Writing’s on the Wall” – Spectre
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: I missed Racing Extinction, whatever the hell that is, in favor of Furious 7. It is refreshing to know that they don’t just go with the popular artists…oh wait. Spectre. Sam Smith. Wow. That song sucked. And Lady Gaga, fresh off her Golden Globe, gets a likely Oscar. Nice. I totally called the alternate Fifty Shades song getting in though!
Preliminary prediction: The Hunting Ground

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Bridge of Spies
Carol
The Hateful Eight
Sicario
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Predicted: 3 for 5
Reactions: I had The Danish Girl and Spotlight in for Sicario and Bridge of Spies. This is a good group. John Williams is back in it. This has to go to Ennio Morricone, though, right? We all want to see Quentin back up on that stage accepting on his behalf.
Preliminary prediction: The Hateful Eight

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Amy
Cartel Land
The Look of Silence
What Happened, Miss Simone?
Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom
Predicted: 3 for 5
Reactions: I missed the bottom 2 in favor of Going Clear and 3 ½ Minutes, Ten Bullets. I don’t really know what to comment on here. Amy is clearly the frontrunner, but this category doesn’t always go that way. The Look of Silence is a nice touch. I am getting a strange feeling we are in for an upset.
Preliminary prediction: What Happened, Miss Simone?

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Embrace the Serpant
Mustang
Son of Saul
Theeb
A War
Predicted: 3 for 5
Reactions: I missed Embrace the Serpant and Theeb in favor of Labyrinth of Lies and Viva. This one is over. There is almost no chance that Son of Saul loses this.
Preliminary prediction: Son of Saul

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Anomalisa
Boy and the World
Inside Out
Shaun the Sheep Movie
When Marnie Was There
Predicted: 3 for 5
Reactions: I missed Marnie and whatever Boy and the World is in favor of slam dunk nominees The Good Dinosaur and The Peanuts Movie. This is what I love about this category. They do not just go with the traditional picks. If Pixar makes a mediocre movie, they won’t nominate it. They dig deep for movies like Boy and the World. I’m sure it is terrific. Adding it to my Netflix queue.

Preliminary prediction: Inside Out


Overall predictions: 80/106; 75.47% (68.81% in 2015)
Without the last 5 categories: 64/81; 79.01% (70.37% in 2015)
On the Big 8 categories: 36/43; 83.72% (75.00% in 2015)

Damn! I owned that! Those are my highest numbers since 2009. I am totally doing last minute predictions from now on!

10 COOLEST FIRST TIME NOMINEES
1. Jennifer Jason Leigh
2. Bryan Cranston
3. Tom Hardy
4. The Weeknd
5. Adam McKay
6. Rachel McAdams
7. Lady Gaga
8. Alicia Vikander
9. Brie Larson
10. Drew Goddard


10 WORST SNUBS
1. Carol for Best Picture
2. Ridley Scott for Best Director
3. Steve Jobs for Best Adapted Screenplay
4. Black Mass for Best Makeup
5. The Hateful Eight for Best Original Screenplay
6. The Walk for Best Visual Effects
7. Idris Elba for Best Supporting Actor
8. Inside Out for Best Original Score
9. Trainwreck for Best Original Screenplay
10. Spotlight for Best Original Score


That’s all I got! How did you do predicting? Let me know in the comments and stay tuned for our 8th Annual Oscar Challenge!



1 comment:

  1. So excited!!
    Here are my Preliminary predictions

    Picture: Spotlight
    Directing: Inarritu
    Lead Actor: DiCaprio
    Lead Actress: Larson
    Supporting Actor: Stallone
    Supporting Actress: Mara
    Adapted Screenplay: The Big Short
    Original Screenplay: Spotlight
    Foreign Film: Son of Saul
    Animated: Inside Out
    Production Design: Mad Max
    Cinematography: The Revenant
    Costume Design: Cinderella
    Film Editing: The Revenant
    Documentary: Cartel Land or Amy
    Makeup and Hairstyling: Mad Max
    Original Score: The Hateful Eight
    Original Song: The Hunting Ground
    Sound Mixing: The Revenant
    Sound Editing: Sicario
    Visual Effects: Mad Max


    This should be a lot of fun!

    ReplyDelete