Reactions to the Oscar Nominations: 2016

Surprises, once again, were rampant in the nominations announcement this morning. It is a bit frustrating that I spend the whole year predicting these and still know nothing, but it is also refreshing that it is never so predictable that a fan with a blog cannot make the announcements a mere formality. It is my favorite time of the year. Here are my annual reactions to all of the categories and how I did with my final predictions. For the first time, I did last minute predictions, which seemed to make me do worse than I did a couple weeks ago, but they were published, so I will go with what I did yesterday. Without further ado, here are your nominations for the 88^th Annual Academy Awards…

BEST PICTURE
The Big Short

Bridge of Spies

Brooklyn

Mad Max: Fury Road

The Martian

The Revenant

Room

Spotlight

Predicted: 7 for 8

Reactions: The only one I missed was Brooklyn, which I had replaced by Carol. How exactly do they leave it off? I have no idea. It performed so well in all of the other categories. One of the other major surprises is that Straight Outta Compton, which received an Original Screenplay nomination, was left off this list. Star Wars: The Force Awakens, the biggest movie of all time, was also left off. It is a strange category. I can’t remember the last time I honestly had no idea what the frontrunner was. It appears to be The Revenant, but no director has ever had back-to-back Best Pictures.

Preliminary prediction: Spotlight

BEST DIRECTOR

Adam McKay – The Big Short

George Miller – Mad Max: Fury Road

Alejandro G. Inarritu – The Revenant

Lenny Abrahamson – Room

Thomas McCarthy – Spotlight

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: After being snubbed by BAFTA, McCarthy makes an appearance here, reaffirming his film’s frontrunner status. The only one I missed out on was Abrahamason, which I had in my first final predictions, but he ended up taking the place of one of the frontrunners Ridley Scott for The Martian. That snub really surprises me, but then again, it was a “comedy”. This is one of those classic times where the winner of this category is not necessarily going to be the director of the Best Picture. Spotlight’s direction was a bit scattered, so this is going to either Inarritu or Miller, unless they really take to The Big Short and it is in for a sweep. I find that hard to believe. No one has won back to back since 1940-1941 until…

Preliminary prediction: Alejandro G. Inarritu

BEST ACTOR

Bryan Cranston – Trumbo

Matt Damon – The Martian

Leonardo DiCaprio – The Revenant

Michael Fassbender – Steve Jobs

Eddie Redmayne – The Danish Girl

Predicted: 5 for 5

Reactions: In the end, this was the easiest category to predict. Will Smith and Johnny Depp had movies that underperformed all awards season, so getting left off is not a surprise. No actor has won back to back since Tom Hanks in 1993-1994, plus Redmayne’s movie sucks, so he can’t win. Oh, who am I kidding? This is over. Leo!

Preliminary prediction: Leonardo DiCaprio

BEST ACTRESS

Cate Blanchett – Carol

Brie Larson – Room

Jennifer Lawrence – Joy

Charlotte Rampling – 45 Years

Saoirse Ronan – Brooklyn

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: The only one I missed here was Rampling because I had Alicia Vikander as lead for The Danish Girl. It is an absolute joke that she and Rooney Mara are supporting, but that’s how it goes sometimes. Rampling will likely have a lot of support from the Academy, but Brie Larson seems to have this wrapped up. Jennifer Lawrence…wow. She is the new Streep.

Preliminary prediction: Brie Larson

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Christian Bale – The Big Short

Tom Hardy – The Revenant

Mark Ruffalo – Spotlight

Mark Rylance – Bridge of Spies

Sylvester Stallone – Creed

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: The only one I missed was Tom Hardy, which I had replaced with Idris Elba for Beasts of No Nation (shut out). Stallone’s nomination establishes him as the frontrunner. It was going to be a climb to get nominated by his peers, but Academy-wide, he should absolutely dominate this race. He got the biggest applause of any nomination during the announcements.

Preliminary prediction: Sylvester Stallone

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Jennifer Jason Leigh – The Hateful Eight

Rooney Mara – Carol

Rachel McAdams – Spotlight

Alicia Vikander – The Danish Girl
Kate Winslet – Steve Jobs

Predicted: 5 for 5

Reactions: I am going to call this 5-5, even though I had Vikander’s other movie. That is about as close as you get. She and Mara are going to make this category extremely interesting. With the other televised shows coming up, we will see which of the two is going to be the frontrunner for the Oscar. They don’t always compete in the same category, though. This seems wide open. Kate Winslet can’t win like she did at the Globes, right? Right…

Preliminary prediction: Rooney Mara

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Bridge of Spies

Ex Machina

Inside Out

Spotlight

Straight Outta Compton

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: No Tarantino? Seriously? Yikes. I missed Straight Outta Compton and Ex Machina. I had in The Hateful Eight, obviously, and Sicario. Both of those snubs are surprising and seriously off-putting, but it is what it is. Spotlight has this sewn up. There is no chance it loses, unless they want to give the Coens another Oscar.

Preliminary prediction: Spotlight

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Big Short

Brooklyn

Carol

The Martian

Room

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I missed The Martian in favor of Steve Jobs, you know, the Golden Globe winner. Aaron Sorkin. Academy favorite. Whatever. That snub makes ZERO sense. But Drew Goddard getting the nom is insanely cool. This category seems pretty wide open. The Big Short would be the traditional winner, but is the guy behind Ron Burgundy really going to be an Oscar winner? Carol should win, but won’t. Carol and Room could be the first solo female winners in this category since 1995. Brooklyn getting in is a nice touch…beautiful screenplay.

Preliminary prediction: The Big Short

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Carol

The Hateful Eight

Mad Max: Fury Road

The Revenant

Sicario

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I had Bridge of Spies in for Carol. This is actually what the category should look like. There are some big name guys in this group. This one should go right down to the wire.

Preliminary prediction: Sicario

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Bridge of Spies

The Danish Girl

Mad Max: Fury Road

The Martian

The Revenant

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: I had Carol and Star Wars in for The Martian and The Revenant. This is an interesting group. It is somewhat reminiscent of 2007. The Revenant is a non-traditional contender like There Will Be Blood was, but it is probably the frontrunner. But…

Preliminary prediction: Mad Max: Fury Road

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Carol

Cinderella

The Danish Girl

Mad Max: Fury Road

The Revenant

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: I had Crimson Peak in for a surprise and Brooklyn as well in place of Mad Max and The Revenant. The latter is a strange nominee, but a cool one at the same time.

Preliminary prediction: The Danish Girl

BEST SOUND MIXING

Bridge of Spies

Mad Max: Fury Road

The Martian

The Revenant

Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I had Jurassic World in for Bridge of Spies. That movie performed a lot better than I expected. This category usually goes to action movies, and we have 3 of them here. If Star Wars wins anything, it is this, but I don’t think that is too high on the Academy’s priority list.

Preliminary prediction: The Revenant

BEST FILM EDITING

The Big Short

Mad Max: Fury Road

The Revenant

Spotlight

Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I missed Star Wars in favor of The Martian. This is the category of contenders, minus that snub, of course. I think it can only really go one way, though…

Preliminary prediction: The Revenant

BEST SOUND EFFECTS EDITING

Mad Max: Fury Road

The Martian

The Revenant

Sicario

Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I had Everest in for Sicario. That is a cool surprise nomination, there. Typically, this category goes hand in hand with Sound Mixing, but this year could be different. It is usually all about more traditional action movies.

Preliminary prediction: Mad Max: Fury Road

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Ex Machina

Mad Max: Fury Road

The Martian

The Revenant

Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I had The Walk getting that sort of Hereafter nomination over Ex Machina, which is well-deserved. This category is absolutely stacked. There are not usually this many Best Picture contenders in this category.

Preliminary prediction: Mad Max: Fury Road

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

Mad Max: Fury Road

The 100-Year Old Man Who Climbed Out The Window and Disappeared

The Revenant

Predicted: 2 for 3

Reactions: I had Black Mass in over that long title. Is that going to be our winner? That would have to be the longest title to ever win an Oscar. Can I get some fact checking on that?

Preliminary prediction: The Revenant

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

“Earned It” – Fifty Shades of Grey

“Manta Ray” – Racing Extinction

“Simple Song No. 3” – Youth

“Til It Happens To You” – The Hunting Ground

“Writing’s on the Wall” – Spectre

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I missed Racing Extinction, whatever the hell that is, in favor of Furious 7. It is refreshing to know that they don’t just go with the popular artists…oh wait. Spectre. Sam Smith. Wow. That song sucked. And Lady Gaga, fresh off her Golden Globe, gets a likely Oscar. Nice. I totally called the alternate Fifty Shades song getting in though!

Preliminary prediction: The Hunting Ground

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Bridge of Spies

Carol

The Hateful Eight

Sicario

Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: I had The Danish Girl and Spotlight in for Sicario and Bridge of Spies. This is a good group. John Williams is back in it. This has to go to Ennio Morricone, though, right? We all want to see Quentin back up on that stage accepting on his behalf.

Preliminary prediction: The Hateful Eight

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Amy

Cartel Land

The Look of Silence

What Happened, Miss Simone?

Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: I missed the bottom 2 in favor of Going Clear and 3 ½ Minutes, Ten Bullets. I don’t really know what to comment on here. Amy is clearly the frontrunner, but this category doesn’t always go that way. The Look of Silence is a nice touch. I am getting a strange feeling we are in for an upset.

Preliminary prediction: What Happened, Miss Simone?

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Embrace the Serpant

Mustang

Son of Saul

Theeb

A War

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: I missed Embrace the Serpant and Theeb in favor of Labyrinth of Lies and Viva. This one is over. There is almost no chance that Son of Saul loses this.

Preliminary prediction: Son of Saul

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Anomalisa

Boy and the World

Inside Out

Shaun the Sheep Movie

When Marnie Was There

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: I missed Marnie and whatever Boy and the World is in favor of slam dunk nominees The Good Dinosaur and The Peanuts Movie. This is what I love about this category. They do not just go with the traditional picks. If Pixar makes a mediocre movie, they won’t nominate it. They dig deep for movies like Boy and the World. I’m sure it is terrific. Adding it to my Netflix queue.

Preliminary prediction: Inside Out

Overall predictions: 80/106; 75.47% (68.81% in 2015)

Without the last 5 categories: 64/81; 79.01% (70.37% in 2015)

On the Big 8 categories: 36/43; 83.72% (75.00% in 2015)

Damn! I owned that! Those are my highest numbers since 2009. I am totally doing last minute predictions from now on!

10 COOLEST FIRST TIME NOMINEES

1. Jennifer Jason Leigh

2. Bryan Cranston

3. Tom Hardy

4. The Weeknd

5. Adam McKay

6. Rachel McAdams

7. Lady Gaga

8. Alicia Vikander

9. Brie Larson

10. Drew Goddard

10 WORST SNUBS

1. Carol for Best Picture

2. Ridley Scott for Best Director

3. Steve Jobs for Best Adapted Screenplay

4. Black Mass for Best Makeup

5. The Hateful Eight for Best Original Screenplay

6. The Walk for Best Visual Effects

7. Idris Elba for Best Supporting Actor

8. Inside Out for Best Original Score

9. Trainwreck for Best Original Screenplay

10. Spotlight for Best Original Score

That’s all I got! How did you do predicting? Let me know in the comments and stay tuned for our 8^th Annual Oscar Challenge!