Surprises, once again, were rampant in the nominations
announcement this morning. It is a bit frustrating that I spend the whole year
predicting these and still know nothing, but it is also refreshing that it is never
so predictable that a fan with a blog cannot make the announcements a mere formality.
It is my favorite time of the year. Here are my annual reactions to all of the
categories and how I did with my final predictions. For the first time, I did
last minute predictions, which seemed to make me do worse than I did a couple
weeks ago, but they were published, so I will go with what I did yesterday.
Without further ado, here are your nominations for the 88th Annual
Academy Awards…
BEST PICTURE
The Big Short
The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Room
Spotlight
Predicted: 7 for 8
Reactions: The
only one I missed was Brooklyn, which
I had replaced by Carol. How exactly
do they leave it off? I have no idea. It performed so well in all of the other
categories. One of the other major surprises is that Straight Outta Compton, which received an Original Screenplay
nomination, was left off this list. Star
Wars: The Force Awakens, the biggest movie of all time, was also left off.
It is a strange category. I can’t remember the last time I honestly had no idea
what the frontrunner was. It appears to be The
Revenant, but no director has ever had back-to-back Best Pictures.
Preliminary
prediction: Spotlight
BEST
DIRECTOR
Adam McKay – The
Big Short
George Miller – Mad
Max: Fury Road
Alejandro G. Inarritu – The Revenant
Lenny Abrahamson – Room
Thomas McCarthy – Spotlight
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: After
being snubbed by BAFTA, McCarthy makes an appearance here, reaffirming his film’s
frontrunner status. The only one I missed out on was Abrahamason, which I had
in my first final predictions, but he ended up taking the place of one of the
frontrunners Ridley Scott for The Martian.
That snub really surprises me, but then again, it was a “comedy”. This is one
of those classic times where the winner of this category is not necessarily
going to be the director of the Best Picture. Spotlight’s direction was a bit scattered, so this is going to
either Inarritu or Miller, unless they really take to The Big Short and it is in for a sweep. I find that hard to
believe. No one has won back to back since 1940-1941 until…
Preliminary
prediction: Alejandro G. Inarritu
BEST ACTOR
Bryan
Cranston – Trumbo
Matt Damon
– The Martian
Leonardo
DiCaprio – The Revenant
Michael
Fassbender – Steve Jobs
Eddie
Redmayne – The Danish Girl
Predicted: 5 for 5
Reactions: In
the end, this was the easiest category to predict. Will Smith and Johnny Depp
had movies that underperformed all awards season, so getting left off is not a
surprise. No actor has won back to back since Tom Hanks in 1993-1994, plus
Redmayne’s movie sucks, so he can’t win. Oh, who am I kidding? This is over.
Leo!
Preliminary
prediction: Leonardo DiCaprio
BEST ACTRESS
Cate
Blanchett – Carol
Brie
Larson – Room
Jennifer
Lawrence – Joy
Charlotte
Rampling – 45 Years
Saoirse
Ronan – Brooklyn
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: The
only one I missed here was Rampling because I had Alicia Vikander as lead for The Danish Girl. It is an absolute joke
that she and Rooney Mara are supporting, but that’s how it goes sometimes.
Rampling will likely have a lot of support from the Academy, but Brie Larson
seems to have this wrapped up. Jennifer Lawrence…wow. She is the new Streep.
Preliminary
prediction: Brie Larson
BEST
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Christian
Bale – The Big Short
Tom Hardy –
The Revenant
Mark
Ruffalo – Spotlight
Mark Rylance
– Bridge of Spies
Sylvester
Stallone – Creed
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: The
only one I missed was Tom Hardy, which I had replaced with Idris Elba for Beasts of No Nation (shut out). Stallone’s
nomination establishes him as the frontrunner. It was going to be a climb to
get nominated by his peers, but Academy-wide, he should absolutely dominate
this race. He got the biggest applause of any nomination during the
announcements.
Preliminary
prediction: Sylvester Stallone
BEST
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jennifer
Jason Leigh – The Hateful Eight
Rooney
Mara – Carol
Rachel
McAdams – Spotlight
Alicia Vikander
– The Danish Girl
Kate Winslet – Steve Jobs
Kate Winslet – Steve Jobs
Predicted: 5 for 5
Reactions: I
am going to call this 5-5, even though I had Vikander’s other movie. That is
about as close as you get. She and Mara are going to make this category
extremely interesting. With the other televised shows coming up, we will see
which of the two is going to be the frontrunner for the Oscar. They don’t
always compete in the same category, though. This seems wide open. Kate Winslet
can’t win like she did at the Globes, right? Right…
Preliminary
prediction: Rooney Mara
BEST
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Bridge of Spies
Ex Machina
Inside Out
Spotlight
Straight Outta Compton
Predicted: 3 for 5
Reactions: No
Tarantino? Seriously? Yikes. I missed Straight
Outta Compton and Ex Machina. I
had in The Hateful Eight, obviously,
and Sicario. Both of those snubs are surprising
and seriously off-putting, but it is what it is. Spotlight has this sewn up. There is no chance it loses, unless
they want to give the Coens another Oscar.
Preliminary
prediction: Spotlight
BEST ADAPTED
SCREENPLAY
The Big Short
Brooklyn
Carol
The Martian
Room
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: I
missed The Martian in favor of Steve Jobs, you know, the Golden Globe
winner. Aaron Sorkin. Academy favorite. Whatever. That snub makes ZERO sense.
But Drew Goddard getting the nom is insanely cool. This category seems pretty
wide open. The Big Short would be the
traditional winner, but is the guy behind Ron Burgundy really going to be an Oscar
winner? Carol should win, but won’t. Carol and Room could be the first solo female winners in this category since
1995. Brooklyn getting in is a nice
touch…beautiful screenplay.
Preliminary
prediction: The Big Short
BEST
CINEMATOGRAPHY
Carol
The Hateful Eight
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Sicario
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: I
had Bridge of Spies in for Carol. This is actually what the
category should look like. There are some big name guys in this group. This one
should go right down to the wire.
Preliminary
prediction: Sicario
BEST
PRODUCTION DESIGN
Bridge of Spies
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Predicted: 3 for 5
Reactions: I
had Carol and Star Wars in for The Martian
and The Revenant. This is an
interesting group. It is somewhat reminiscent of 2007. The Revenant is a non-traditional contender like There Will Be Blood was, but it is
probably the frontrunner. But…
Preliminary
prediction: Mad Max: Fury Road
BEST COSTUME
DESIGN
Carol
Cinderella
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Predicted: 3 for 5
Reactions: I
had Crimson Peak in for a surprise
and Brooklyn as well in place of Mad Max and The Revenant. The latter is a strange nominee, but a cool one at
the same time.
Preliminary
prediction: The Danish Girl
BEST SOUND
MIXING
Bridge of Spies
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: I
had Jurassic World in for Bridge of Spies. That movie performed a
lot better than I expected. This category usually goes to action movies, and we
have 3 of them here. If Star Wars
wins anything, it is this, but I don’t think that is too high on the Academy’s
priority list.
Preliminary
prediction: The Revenant
BEST FILM
EDITING
The Big Short
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Spotlight
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: I
missed Star Wars in favor of The Martian. This is the category of
contenders, minus that snub, of course. I think it can only really go one way,
though…
Preliminary
prediction: The Revenant
BEST SOUND
EFFECTS EDITING
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Sicario
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: I
had Everest in for Sicario. That is a cool surprise
nomination, there. Typically, this category goes hand in hand with Sound
Mixing, but this year could be different. It is usually all about more
traditional action movies.
Preliminary
prediction: Mad Max: Fury Road
BEST VISUAL
EFFECTS
Ex Machina
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: I
had The Walk getting that sort of Hereafter nomination over Ex Machina, which is well-deserved. This
category is absolutely stacked. There are not usually this many Best Picture
contenders in this category.
Preliminary
prediction: Mad Max: Fury Road
BEST MAKEUP
AND HAIRSTYLING
Mad Max: Fury Road
The 100-Year Old Man Who Climbed Out The Window and
Disappeared
The Revenant
Predicted: 2 for 3
Reactions: I
had Black Mass in over that long
title. Is that going to be our winner? That would have to be the longest title
to ever win an Oscar. Can I get some fact checking on that?
Preliminary
prediction: The Revenant
BEST
ORIGINAL SONG
“Earned It”
– Fifty Shades of Grey
“Manta Ray”
– Racing Extinction
“Simple
Song No. 3” – Youth
“Til It
Happens To You” – The Hunting Ground
“Writing’s
on the Wall” – Spectre
Predicted: 4 for 5
Reactions: I
missed Racing Extinction, whatever
the hell that is, in favor of Furious 7.
It is refreshing to know that they don’t just go with the popular artists…oh
wait. Spectre. Sam Smith. Wow. That
song sucked. And Lady Gaga, fresh off her Golden Globe, gets a likely Oscar.
Nice. I totally called the alternate Fifty
Shades song getting in though!
Preliminary
prediction: The Hunting Ground
BEST
ORIGINAL SCORE
Bridge of Spies
Carol
The Hateful Eight
Sicario
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Predicted: 3 for 5
Reactions: I
had The Danish Girl and Spotlight in for Sicario and Bridge of Spies.
This is a good group. John Williams is back in it. This has to go to Ennio
Morricone, though, right? We all want to see Quentin back up on that stage
accepting on his behalf.
Preliminary
prediction: The Hateful Eight
BEST
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Amy
Cartel Land
The Look of Silence
What Happened, Miss Simone?
Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom
Predicted: 3 for 5
Reactions: I missed
the bottom 2 in favor of Going Clear
and 3 ½ Minutes, Ten Bullets. I don’t
really know what to comment on here. Amy
is clearly the frontrunner, but this category doesn’t always go that way. The Look of Silence is a nice touch. I
am getting a strange feeling we are in for an upset.
Preliminary
prediction: What Happened, Miss Simone?
BEST FOREIGN
LANGUAGE FILM
Embrace the Serpant
Mustang
Son of Saul
Theeb
A War
Predicted: 3 for 5
Reactions: I
missed Embrace the Serpant and Theeb in favor of Labyrinth of Lies and Viva.
This one is over. There is almost no chance that Son of Saul loses this.
Preliminary
prediction: Son of Saul
BEST
ANIMATED FEATURE
Anomalisa
Boy and the World
Inside Out
Shaun the Sheep Movie
When Marnie Was There
Predicted: 3 for 5
Reactions: I
missed Marnie and whatever Boy and the World is in favor of slam
dunk nominees The Good Dinosaur and The Peanuts Movie. This is what I love
about this category. They do not just go with the traditional picks. If Pixar
makes a mediocre movie, they won’t nominate it. They dig deep for movies like Boy and the World. I’m sure it is
terrific. Adding it to my Netflix queue.
Preliminary
prediction: Inside Out
Overall
predictions: 80/106; 75.47% (68.81% in
2015)
Without the
last 5 categories: 64/81; 79.01% (70.37%
in 2015)
On the Big 8
categories: 36/43; 83.72% (75.00% in 2015)
Damn! I owned that! Those are my highest numbers since 2009. I am totally doing last minute predictions from now on!
10 COOLEST
FIRST TIME NOMINEES
1. Jennifer Jason Leigh
2. Bryan Cranston
3. Tom Hardy
4. The Weeknd
5. Adam McKay
6. Rachel McAdams
7. Lady Gaga
8. Alicia Vikander
9. Brie Larson
10. Drew Goddard
10 WORST
SNUBS
1. Carol for
Best Picture
2. Ridley Scott for Best Director
3. Steve Jobs
for Best Adapted Screenplay
4. Black Mass
for Best Makeup
5. The Hateful
Eight for Best Original Screenplay
6. The Walk for
Best Visual Effects
7. Idris Elba for Best Supporting Actor
8. Inside Out
for Best Original Score
9. Trainwreck
for Best Original Screenplay
10. Spotlight
for Best Original Score
That’s all I got! How did you do predicting? Let me know
in the comments and stay tuned for our 8th Annual Oscar Challenge!
