Reactions to the Nominations: 2012

As usual, the Oscar nomination announcement brought some pleasant surprises and some downright shockers. The Artist is still the one to beat, but much to my surprise, it did not lead in nominations. Hugo leads the way with 11, followed by The Artist’s 10. Interesting developments abound. Here is my breakdown of each category:

Best Picture
The Artist

The Descendants

Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

The Help

Hugo

Midnight in Paris

Moneyball

The Tree of Life

War Horse

Predicted: 8 for 9

Reactions: I suspected that only 7 would get nominated, but the only one I didn’t have in my top 9 was Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (I had Dragon Tattoo). I am slightly upset that Fincher’s film did not make the cut, especially with 9 getting nominated. However, I am much more excited that Bridesmaids did not make it (even though that would have made Apatow an Oscar nominee) and that The Tree of Life got in, basically telling the guilds that they are not the answer to predicting the Oscars. Not a bad group, though. Brad Pitt gets his double nod, but not necessarily the one we were hoping for. Seeing how the rest of the nominees stacked up implies that there could be a legitimate threat or two for The Artist. Last year, 9 of the 10 nominees had screenplay nominations, but this year only 5 of the 9 do. Not sure what that means, but it is an interesting development. Having 9 nominees all having at least 5% of the vote also implies that the votes are a lot more spread out than I would have originally thought. I always figured when a movie sweeps the ceremony that they get like 40% of the vote or something, but the math just simply does not support that, at least not this year. I find this new rule rather interesting, actually. Oh, and never underestimate Stephen Daldry. Two straight films of his that I have said that about, and I still do it. Genius.

Preliminary prediction: The Artist

Best Director

Woody Allen – Midnight in Paris

Michel Hazanavicius – The Artist

Terrence Malick – The Tree of Life

Alexander Payne – The Descendants

Martin Scorsese – Hugo

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I had Fincher in for Malick. I love this. I hate that Fincher is not going to win an Oscar for another worthy film, but Terrence Malick got nominated. I am stoked that they didn’t make it Spielberg or Daldry. I have a feeling that this may be one of those Director-Picture split years that has not happened since 2005.

Preliminary Prediction: Terrence Malick

Best Actor

Demian Bichir – A Better Life

George Clooney – The Descendants

Jean Dujardin – The Artist

Gary Oldman – Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

Brad Pitt – Moneyball

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: I had DiCaprio and Fassbender in for Bichir and Oldman. Gary Oldman, Oscar nominee. We can finally say it! Pretty great group, other than that random guy in that horrible movie by the director of the second Twilight Movie. I don’t get that. Clooney may not be as much of a favorite as we suspected with Woodley missing out on Supporting Actress. Pitt and Oldman could pull a shocker. Let’s hope that happens.

Preliminary Prediction: George Clooney

Best Actress

Glenn Close – Albert Nobbs

Viola Davis – The Help

Rooney Mara – The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Meryl Streep – The Iron Lady

Michelle Williams – My Week with Marilyn

Predicted: 5 for 5

Reactions: There was no real question here as to what the nominations would look like. The guys on E! are stupid for saying that no one thought Mara would get nominated. Tilda Swinton is once again on the outside. Not enough people saw her movie, I guess. Streep’s film got an unexpected second nomination, so at least she has some support from somewhere other than the actors branch. Her third win finally?

Preliminary Prediction: Meryl Streep

Best Supporting Actor

Kenneth Branagh – My Week with Marilyn

Jonah Hill – Moneyball

Nick Nolte – Warrior

Christopher Plummer – Beginners

Max von Sydow – Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I had Albert Brooks in for Max von Sydow. How is that only von Sydow’s second nomination? Anyway, Jonah Hill getting nominated is amazing. The rest are fairly predictable overdue veteran actors, but I just can’t believe that one isn’t Brooks. When was the last time that the unanimous critic favorite in an acting category failed to get even a nomination? I guess Drive is just too cool for the Academy. Same old story…

Preliminary Prediction: Christopher Plummer

Best Supporting Actress

Berenice Bejo – The Artist

Jessica Chastain – The Help

Melissa McCarthy – Bridesmaids

Janet McTeer – Albert Nobbs

Octavia Spencer – The Help

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I had Shailene Woodley in for McCarthy. This was just wishful thinking that the Academy would ignore Bridesmaids. Nothing really to say here. I feel bad for Woodley. She deserved to get invited.

Preliminary Prediction: Octavia Spencer

Original Screenplay

The Artist

Bridesmaids

Margin Call

Midnight in Paris

A Separation

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: I had Win Win and Young Adult in for Bridesmaids and Margin Call. Stupid Bridesmaids, but Margin Call!!! This is amazing. This reminds me of when 2009’s best film The Messenger was nominated in this category after no precursors. This is awesome. However, with Woody Allen getting his director nod, his win here is almost assured. I have no problem with that.

Preliminary Prediction: Midnight in Paris

Adapted Screenplay

The Descendants

Hugo

The Ides of March

Moneyball

Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I had The Help in for Tinker Tailor. This was a real surprise, showing that The Help does not have all of the support that we had originally thought. Clooney gets his double nod. Aaron Sorkin gets in two years in a row. Steven Zaillian goes 1 for 2. I like this group.

Preliminary Prediction: The Descendants

Cinematography

The Artist

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Hugo

The Tree of Life

War Horse

Predicted: 5 for 5

Reactions: I completely nailed this! Other than Drive not getting in, I cannot complain about any of these nominees.

Preliminary Prediction: War Horse

Art Direction

The Artist

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2

Hugo

Midnight in Paris

War Horse

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I had Anonymous in for Midnight in Paris. This just shows that Paris has a fair amount of support. Can Woody make a serious run at Best Picture?

Preliminary Prediction: Hugo

Costume Design

Anonymous

The Artist

Hugo

Jane Eyre

W.E.

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: I had The Help and My Week with Marilyn in for Anonymous and Jane Eyre. The latter certainly deserved its nomination (and the win), but I am so mad that I chose the wrong category for Anonymous! I knew it would show up somewhere…

Preliminary Prediction: W.E.

Sound Mixing

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Hugo

Moneyball

Transformers: Dark of the Moon

War Horse

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: I had The Tree of Life and The Artist in for Transformers and Moneyball. This is normally a spot for the Best Picture winners. Each BP winner was nominated here since 2006. Could this be a telling factor in the race?

Preliminary Prediction: War Horse

Editing

The Artist

The Descendants

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Hugo

Moneyball

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I had Tinker Tailor in for The Descendants. It seems that the Academy liked The Descendants more than Sideways even with it getting the crucial editing nod. I am shocked that Tinker Tailor didn’t get in here with the support it got elsewhere. Oh well. I hope Dragon Tattoo or Moneyball takes this.

Preliminary Prediction: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Sound Editing

Drive

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Hugo

Transformers: Dark of the Moon

War Horse

Predicted: 2 for 5

Reactions: Yeah, I had Tintin, Super 8, and Planet of the Apes instead of Drive, Dragon Tattoo, and Hugo. This is a big spot for Hugo. It basically got every possible Artistic/Technical nomination. Drive at least got one nomination in one of its least deserving spots. Whatever, Oscar…

Preliminary Prediction: War Horse

Visual Effects

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2

Hugo

Real Steel

Rise of the Planet of the Apes

Transformers: Dark of the Moon

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: I had Tree of Life and X-Men in for Real Steel and Transformers. Yep, that is three noms for the Michael Bay disaster. Nice.

Preliminary Prediction: Harry Potter

Makeup

Albert Nobbs

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2

The Iron Lady

Predicted: 1 for 3

Reactions: I had The Artist and Anonymous in for Iron Lady and Harry Potter. Well, I went 0 for 3 last year, so this is something.

Preliminary Prediction: Albert Nobbs

Song

“Man or Muppet” – The Muppets

“Real in Rio” – Rio

Predicted: 0 for 2

Reactions: I predicted 5 nominees, including songs from The Help, Albert Nobbs, We Bought a Zoo, Cars 2, and the wrong song from The Muppets. I love these two songs, though. They are both the best in their films, which are both stocked full with great original songs. Well done, but the Academy needs to fix the rules here. Only nominating two is pretty dumb.

Preliminary Prediction:The Muppets

Score

The Adventures of Tintin

The Artist

Hugo

Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

War Horse

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I had Dragon Tattoo in for Tinker Tailor. Double nom for John Williams? What else is new. Shame that Dragon Tattoo and Drive got snubbed here.

Preliminary Prediction: The Artist

Documentary

Hell and Back Again

If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front

Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory

Pina

Undefeated

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: I had Project Nim and We Were Here in for Hell and Back Again and Pina. Just took a stab, really. They always snub the best doc, and this year, the best ones were supposedly Project Nim and George Harrison: Living in a Material World. Well done, Academy. Your new rules still don’t work.

Preliminary Prediction: Undefeated

Foreign Language Film

Bullhead

Footnote

In Darkness

Monsieur Lazhar

A Separation

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: I had Black Bread and Where Do We Go Now? in for Bullhead and Footnote. Haven’t seen any of these, but I always have a random gut feeling that there will be an upset, and I am right almost every year. Do not be fooled just because A Separation got a screenplay nod that it is a lock in this category. Ask Guillermo Del Toro if that is the case. One of the movies is about Nazis, and we know how Oscar feels about those movies. Upset!

Preliminary Prediction: In Darkness

Animated Feature

A Cat in Paris

Chico & Rita

Kung Fu Panda 2

Puss in Boots

Rango

Predicted: 2 for 5

Reactions: I had Tintin (obviously), Arthur Christmas, and Cars 2 in for A Cat in Paris (what?), Kung Fu Panda 2, and Puss in Boots. Well, I got one of the no name films right. What happened to Tintin and the surefire Spielberg nomination? I love that Kung Fu Panda got the nod, though. Such a cool movie. Poor Winnie the Pooh. Oh well. The director of Pirates of the Caribbean is going to be an Oscar winner. Nice.

Preliminary Prediction: Rango

Overall predictions: 72/104; 69.23% (67.96% in 2011)

Without the last 5 categories: 60/79; 75.95% (70.37% in 2011)

On the Big 8 categories: 35/44; 79.55% (84.44% in 2011)

So, I did better predicting everything but the main categories this year, which is a change of pace. The arts and techs were a tad easier since the Best Picture contenders are almost all visual spectacles. Not bad. I am pretty proud about how this turned out.

10 coolest first-time nominees (last year had so many better options):

1. Gary Oldman

2. Jonah Hill

3. Rooney Mara

4. Jessica Chastain

5. Kristen Wiig (even though I hate her movie)

6. JC Chandor

7. Berenice Bejo

8. Chris Columbus

9. Jean Dujardin

10. Gore Verbinski

10 worst snubs:

1. Drive in all categories (especially Best Editing, Best Original Score, and Best Supporting Actor)

2. Michael Shannon for Best Actor

3. Michael Fassbender for Best Actor

4. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo for Best Original Score and Best Director

5. Brad Pitt for Best Supporting Actor

6. Super 8 for Best Sound Editing

7. Winnie the Pooh for Best Animated Feature

8. Carey Mulligan for Best Supporting Actress (for Shame and Drive)

9. Carnage for Best Adapted Screenplay

10. Berenice Bejo for Best Actress

If there were five nominees for Best Picture, they probably would have been The Artist, The Descendants, The Help, Hugo, and Midnight in Paris. If there were 10, it probably would have added in Bridesmaids. Maybe Dragon Tattoo with all its guild and technical category support. Seeing a concrete number would have been nice. Anyway, it was a nominations morning filled with excitement, both good and bad. Most of the important nominations I was hoping for (Jonah Hill, Rooney Mara, Terrence Malick) were taken care of. Dragon Tattoo missing out on almost everything is discouraging, but it is all made up for with Margin Call getting a nomination. Seriously, it is the best original screenplay since 2009. I can’t wait to see what the next month brings to the race. Maybe the SAGs will give us a surprise. Maybe the DGA will give the award to someone other than Hazanavicius, since the category is filled with amazing, proven directors. Maybe the BAFTAs will help someone’s cause in the acting categories (do not forget that they almost single-handedly anointed Tilda Swinton and Marion Cotillard as winners in the same year). We shall see. I love this time of year.

Stay tuned for our Fourth Annual Oscar Challenge. How do you think the Academy did this year? Who are you predicting to win? Let us know in the comments.

2012 Oscar Predictions: Final (Major Categories)

After the Golden Globes and Critics Choice awards, everything seems to be much clearer. Here is how it will shake out on January 24^th at 5:30 in the morning Pacific Time (screw the east coast, no one cares)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Predicted Five

1. The Descendants – Alexander Payne takes this for his second film in a row!

2. Moneyball – Aaron Sorkin can’t win two years in a row, can he? The Critics Choice win was big, though.

3. The Ides of March – The Golden Globes and Clooney love will probably secure this nomination

4. Hugo – The favorites in the major categories are normally mentioned here.

5. The Help – This is a dark horse for Best Picture. I can’t see it missing for a nomination here.

Others in contention

6. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo – Got the WGA nom, but with ineligibility, basically anything could get mentioned there. I have a feeling this film is stronger than we are all anticipating.

7. War Horse – If it gets in for Best Picture which is not a certainty anymore, this will probably be another nomination for it.

8. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close – No one has really seen this, but the Critics Choice liked it. Why am I underestimating the sentimental Stephen Daldry again?

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

The Predicted Five

1. Midnight in Paris – Two wins in four days for Woody, but where is he? A good speech would really have secured his win!

2. The Artist – The default winner if it is the clean sweep it will likely be.

3. Win Win – The quietest of all contenders, but this nomination is a near certainty.

4. Young Adult – A past winner returns to form with a brilliant dark comedy. Seems like Oscar stuff.

5. A Separation – The Globes awarding this is big. It must just be a unanimous hit, but where is it playing? Will enough voters see it for it to get in this category?

Others in contention

6. The Tree of Life – Everyone is ignoring it, but this category is not out of the question.

7. Bridesmaids – Could be one of the worst screenplays ever nominated if it gets in.

8. 50/50 - A very dark horse, but the precursors are piling up. Can this pull a shocker?

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Octavia Spencer – The Help – Seems ridiculous, but this is a lock for the win.

2. Jessica Chastain – The Help – The best in the cast, but stands no chance against her overrated costar.

3. Berenice Bejo – The Artist – Obvious nominee, but only if The Artist is winning EVERYTHING and The Help doesn’t get the major noms will she stand a chance at victory.

4. Shailene Woodley – The Descendants – She was amazing, and her movie is one of the favorites. She will likely snag a spot.

5. Janet McTeer – Albert Nobbs – The Globe nod helps, but this is really just a race for second place.

Others in contention

6. Melissa McCarthy – Bridesmaids – She sucked, but the SAG and Critics Choice noms are disturbingly telling.

7. Sandra Bullock – Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close – No precursors, but if they love the film (and we know they love her), she will get in.

Annual Tommy Lee Jones – In the Valley of Elah Shocker Nomination: Jeannie Berlin – Margaret

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Christopher Plummer – Beginners – It’s over. It sucks, but it’s over.

2. Kenneth Branagh – My Week with Marilyn – Biopic role, beloved star. He is in for sure.

3. Albert Brooks – Drive – The only time an actor has missed the SAG nom and won the Oscar was Marcia Gay Harden in 2000. He can’t win, but his nom has to happen.

4. Nick Nolte – Warrior – His SAG nom showed the support from the right group of people. He has been nominated twice. Can this be an all veteran category?

5. Armie Hammer – J. Edgar – The SAG nomination is a good sign for him, who seems to be the forgotten one of the category. Make-up nom in the tradition of Josh Brolin in Milk?

Others in contention

6. Jonah Hill – Moneyball – Has the precursors, but this reeks of the Mila Kunis snub.

7. Viggo Mortensen – A Dangerous Method – A very quiet contender, but he has enough support to make a run.

8. Patton Oswalt – Young Adult – He has the Oscar scene, but the movie’s support may not be strong enough.

Annual Tommy Lee Jones – In the Valley of Elah Shocker Nomination: Brad Pitt – The Tree of Life

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Meryl Streep – The Iron Lady – This is going to be a close vote, but 30 years without a win is just stupid with all those nominations she gets.

2. Viola Davis – The Help – She obviously has the support of her peers, but she is up against the woman that arguably made her career take off.

3. Michelle Williams – My Week with Marilyn – The Golden Globe win solidified her nomination. If Streep and Davis split, she could be a Tilda Swinton-esque winner.

4. Rooney Mara – The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo – Astonishing work. If we really were awarding the best performances, she would win. Since we aren’t, a nomination will just do.

5. Glenn Close – Albert Nobbs – Transformation role, veteran who has not won and is often snubbed. She will slide in.

Others in contention

6. Tilda Swinton – We Need to Talk About Kevin – She is said to be terrific, and she took a Globe nod. If enough voters see it in time, she could be a surprise mention.

7. Charlize Theron – Young Adult – She has the resume to do it, but I can’t see her supplanting one of the predicted five.

8. Elizabeth Olsen – Martha Marcy May Marlene – Excellent performance that will probably come up just short. Not quite the unanimous hit that Winter’s Bone was.

Annual Tommy Lee Jones – In the Valley of Elah Shocker Nomination: Olivia Colman - Tyrannosaur

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. George Clooney – The Descendents – Beating Pitt at the Globes locked this one up.

2. Brad Pitt – Moneyball – The nomination is obvious, but I don’t think he can win anymore. As Clooney said, “I would like to live in a world where Brad Pitt is an Oscar winner.” We may never see that day, sadly.

3. Jean Dujardin – The Artist – Playing the Jeremy Renner overlooked role in the favorite film sucks, doesn’t it? Oh, and stop trying to be quirky at the ceremonies. We get it. The movie is silent and you are French. Hilarious…

4. Leonardo DiCaprio – J. Edgar – The Clint movies are never completely ignored…

5. Michael Fassbender – Shame – He seems to be the talk of the year, along with Ryan Gosling. He is so good in this movie, that I can see this being the Javier Bardem late entry nominee.

Others in contention

6. Gary Oldman – Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy – Another snub for Oldman? This is getting ridiculous.

7. Michael Shannon – Take Shelter – Everyone who saw it knows he should win. If enough see it, he may just pull off a nom.

8. Demien Bichir – A Better Life – How the hell did that SAG nom happen? Whatever. He is a contender, I guess.

Annual Tommy Lee Jones – In the Valley of Elah Shocker Nomination: Paul Giamatti – Win Win

BEST DIRECTOR

The Predicted Five

1. Michel Hazanavicius – The Artist – The Best Picture-Best Director awards almost never split anymore. Sigh…

2. Martin Scorsese – Hugo – The Globe win helps, but he always wins there.

3. David Fincher – The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo – The guilds minus the SAG loved his film. Sound familiar?

4. Alexander Payne – The Descendents – The Globe win for Best Picture-Drama was vital. His film could win it all with some luck and a few more horrible speeches by the crew of The Artist.

5. Woody Allen – Midnight in Paris – The guilds loved it. The Globes and critics adored it. He is back in form. Maybe he will show up for this one.

Others in contention

6. Steven Spielberg – War Horse – The frontrunner goes down! Good, he didn’t deserve it anyway.

7. Terrence Malick – The Tree of Life – We thought the Director nom with no Picture nom splits were over now that the nominees increased. If any film is worthy of that, it is this one.

8. Tate Taylor – The Help – The major awards noms are obvious, but this one is more difficult. The DGA snub hurt.

9. Bennett Miller – Moneyball – The Acedemy loves a good underdog. Will they take anoint Moneyball with this nomination?

10. Stephen Daldry – Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close – Screw it. I refuse to underestimate him again. I should just predict him and get it over with.

BEST PICTURE

The Predicted Ten Seven

1. The Artist – The one to beat. It almost cannot lose at this point, unless the voters do not want to listen to another one of those speeches.

2. The Descendents – The Golden Globe win speaks volumes. With a possible SAG win, this could make it close.

3. Hugo – All the techs do not mean Best Picture anymore.

4. The Help – Is going to get a strong push, but it doesn’t have Weinstein behind it.

5. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo – It is getting all the right noms as of late. Will the Academy be awesome for once and give this a chance?

6. Moneyball – I fear a snub here, but it seems to have the support to make it at least to the ceremony. If Pitt was a more solid Actor contender, then this would be a lock.

7. Midnight in Paris – It is obviously proving the early release date critics wrong. Will one last Woody Allen work of art be a contender for the prize? Probably not, but it deserves consideration.

Others in contention

8. The Tree of Life – Missed all the important awards, but it only needs 5% first place votes. Are there enough Malick fans?

9. War Horse – His snubs recently are shocking. I don’t see a nom happening.

10. Bridesmaids – The PGA, SAG, and WGA noms showed that people care, but are there enough of those stupid people?

11. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close - Maybe not enough people have seen it. It could surprise.