After the Golden Globes and Critics Choice awards, everything seems to be much clearer. Here is how it will shake out on January 24th at 5:30 in the morning Pacific Time (screw the east coast, no one cares)
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Predicted Five
1. The Descendants – Alexander Payne takes this for his second film in a row!
2. Moneyball – Aaron Sorkin can’t win two years in a row, can he? The Critics Choice win was big, though.
3. The Ides of March – The Golden Globes and Clooney love will probably secure this nomination
4. Hugo – The favorites in the major categories are normally mentioned here.
5. The Help – This is a dark horse for Best Picture. I can’t see it missing for a nomination here.
Others in contention
6. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo – Got the WGA nom, but with ineligibility, basically anything could get mentioned there. I have a feeling this film is stronger than we are all anticipating.
7. War Horse – If it gets in for Best Picture which is not a certainty anymore, this will probably be another nomination for it.
8. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close – No one has really seen this, but the Critics Choice liked it. Why am I underestimating the sentimental Stephen Daldry again?
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Predicted Five
1. Midnight in Paris – Two wins in four days for Woody, but where is he? A good speech would really have secured his win!
2. The Artist – The default winner if it is the clean sweep it will likely be.
3. Win Win – The quietest of all contenders, but this nomination is a near certainty.
4. Young Adult – A past winner returns to form with a brilliant dark comedy. Seems like Oscar stuff.
5. A Separation – The Globes awarding this is big. It must just be a unanimous hit, but where is it playing? Will enough voters see it for it to get in this category?
Others in contention
6. The Tree of Life – Everyone is ignoring it, but this category is not out of the question.
7. Bridesmaids – Could be one of the worst screenplays ever nominated if it gets in.
8. 50/50 - A very dark horse, but the precursors are piling up. Can this pull a shocker?
BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
The Predicted Five
1. Octavia Spencer – The Help – Seems ridiculous, but this is a lock for the win.
2. Jessica Chastain – The Help – The best in the cast, but stands no chance against her overrated costar.
3. Berenice Bejo – The Artist – Obvious nominee, but only if The Artist is winning EVERYTHING and The Help doesn’t get the major noms will she stand a chance at victory.
4. Shailene Woodley – The Descendants – She was amazing, and her movie is one of the favorites. She will likely snag a spot.
5. Janet McTeer – Albert Nobbs – The Globe nod helps, but this is really just a race for second place.
Others in contention
6. Melissa McCarthy – Bridesmaids – She sucked, but the SAG and Critics Choice noms are disturbingly telling.
7. Sandra Bullock – Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close – No precursors, but if they love the film (and we know they love her), she will get in.
Annual Tommy Lee Jones – In the Valley of Elah Shocker Nomination: Jeannie Berlin – Margaret
BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
The Predicted Five
1. Christopher Plummer – Beginners – It’s over. It sucks, but it’s over.
2. Kenneth Branagh – My Week with Marilyn – Biopic role, beloved star. He is in for sure.
3. Albert Brooks – Drive – The only time an actor has missed the SAG nom and won the Oscar was Marcia Gay Harden in 2000. He can’t win, but his nom has to happen.
4. Nick Nolte – Warrior – His SAG nom showed the support from the right group of people. He has been nominated twice. Can this be an all veteran category?
5. Armie Hammer – J. Edgar – The SAG nomination is a good sign for him, who seems to be the forgotten one of the category. Make-up nom in the tradition of Josh Brolin in Milk?
Others in contention
6. Jonah Hill – Moneyball – Has the precursors, but this reeks of the Mila Kunis snub.
7. Viggo Mortensen – A Dangerous Method – A very quiet contender, but he has enough support to make a run.
8. Patton Oswalt – Young Adult – He has the Oscar scene, but the movie’s support may not be strong enough.
Annual Tommy Lee Jones – In the Valley of Elah Shocker Nomination: Brad Pitt – The Tree of Life
BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
The Predicted Five
1. Meryl Streep – The Iron Lady – This is going to be a close vote, but 30 years without a win is just stupid with all those nominations she gets.
2. Viola Davis – The Help – She obviously has the support of her peers, but she is up against the woman that arguably made her career take off.
3. Michelle Williams – My Week with Marilyn – The Golden Globe win solidified her nomination. If Streep and Davis split, she could be a Tilda Swinton-esque winner.
4. Rooney Mara – The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo – Astonishing work. If we really were awarding the best performances, she would win. Since we aren’t, a nomination will just do.
5. Glenn Close – Albert Nobbs – Transformation role, veteran who has not won and is often snubbed. She will slide in.
Others in contention
6. Tilda Swinton – We Need to Talk About Kevin – She is said to be terrific, and she took a Globe nod. If enough voters see it in time, she could be a surprise mention.
7. Charlize Theron – Young Adult – She has the resume to do it, but I can’t see her supplanting one of the predicted five.
8. Elizabeth Olsen – Martha Marcy May Marlene – Excellent performance that will probably come up just short. Not quite the unanimous hit that Winter’s Bone was.
Annual Tommy Lee Jones – In the Valley of Elah Shocker Nomination: Olivia Colman - Tyrannosaur
BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
The Predicted Five
1. George Clooney – The Descendents – Beating Pitt at the Globes locked this one up.
2. Brad Pitt – Moneyball – The nomination is obvious, but I don’t think he can win anymore. As Clooney said, “I would like to live in a world where Brad Pitt is an Oscar winner.” We may never see that day, sadly.
3. Jean Dujardin – The Artist – Playing the Jeremy Renner overlooked role in the favorite film sucks, doesn’t it? Oh, and stop trying to be quirky at the ceremonies. We get it. The movie is silent and you are French. Hilarious…
4. Leonardo DiCaprio – J. Edgar – The Clint movies are never completely ignored…
5. Michael Fassbender – Shame – He seems to be the talk of the year, along with Ryan Gosling. He is so good in this movie, that I can see this being the Javier Bardem late entry nominee.
Others in contention
6. Gary Oldman – Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy – Another snub for Oldman? This is getting ridiculous.
7. Michael Shannon – Take Shelter – Everyone who saw it knows he should win. If enough see it, he may just pull off a nom.
8. Demien Bichir – A Better Life – How the hell did that SAG nom happen? Whatever. He is a contender, I guess.
Annual Tommy Lee Jones – In the Valley of Elah Shocker Nomination: Paul Giamatti – Win Win
BEST DIRECTOR
The Predicted Five
1. Michel Hazanavicius – The Artist – The Best Picture-Best Director awards almost never split anymore. Sigh…
2. Martin Scorsese – Hugo – The Globe win helps, but he always wins there.
3. David Fincher – The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo – The guilds minus the SAG loved his film. Sound familiar?
4. Alexander Payne – The Descendents – The Globe win for Best Picture-Drama was vital. His film could win it all with some luck and a few more horrible speeches by the crew of The Artist.
5. Woody Allen – Midnight in Paris – The guilds loved it. The Globes and critics adored it. He is back in form. Maybe he will show up for this one.
Others in contention
6. Steven Spielberg – War Horse – The frontrunner goes down! Good, he didn’t deserve it anyway.
7. Terrence Malick – The Tree of Life – We thought the Director nom with no Picture nom splits were over now that the nominees increased. If any film is worthy of that, it is this one.
8. Tate Taylor – The Help – The major awards noms are obvious, but this one is more difficult. The DGA snub hurt.
9. Bennett Miller – Moneyball – The Acedemy loves a good underdog. Will they take anoint Moneyball with this nomination?
10. Stephen Daldry – Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close – Screw it. I refuse to underestimate him again. I should just predict him and get it over with.
BEST PICTURE
The Predicted Ten Seven
1. The Artist – The one to beat. It almost cannot lose at this point, unless the voters do not want to listen to another one of those speeches.
2. The Descendents – The Golden Globe win speaks volumes. With a possible SAG win, this could make it close.
3. Hugo – All the techs do not mean Best Picture anymore.
4. The Help – Is going to get a strong push, but it doesn’t have Weinstein behind it.
5. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo – It is getting all the right noms as of late. Will the Academy be awesome for once and give this a chance?
6. Moneyball – I fear a snub here, but it seems to have the support to make it at least to the ceremony. If Pitt was a more solid Actor contender, then this would be a lock.
7. Midnight in Paris – It is obviously proving the early release date critics wrong. Will one last Woody Allen work of art be a contender for the prize? Probably not, but it deserves consideration.
Others in contention
8. The Tree of Life – Missed all the important awards, but it only needs 5% first place votes. Are there enough Malick fans?
9. War Horse – His snubs recently are shocking. I don’t see a nom happening.
10. Bridesmaids – The PGA, SAG, and WGA noms showed that people care, but are there enough of those stupid people?
11. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close - Maybe not enough people have seen it. It could surprise.
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