2016 Pre-Season Profile: Oakland Athletics

We may now be two weeks into the season, but it isn't too late to look at a preview for a few last teams.  How will the Oakland A's fare in 2016?

Last Season

My 2015 Prediction: 5th in AL West

2015 Result: 68-94, 5th in AL West

I was finally right!  Every year, it seemed that the Oakland A's would put a sub-par team on the field, and yet they would still compete and sometimes even make the playoffs.  After going all in for the 2014 season, the 2015 season saw them finally come crashing back down to earth.  The A's hit the cellar in 2015 for the first time since 2009 as it seemed they were trying to hit the reset button after the disappointing finish in 2014.

2016 Additions / Subtractions

This offseason saw the A's continue to unload some of their major league talent as Brett Lawrie, Scott Kazmir, and Jesse Chavez left either by trade or free agency.  They did bring in a few guys too, like Khris Davis, Chris Coghlan, and Ryan Madson.  However, the roster still looks very much like a work in progress.

Most Important Hitter

Billy Burns

Has there ever been a more "moneyball" player than Billy Burns?  He is a 5'9", 170 pound, switch-hitting, slap hitter that plays centerfield.  Nothing about him looks like a big leaguer except his stat line.  In one of the deepest rookie classes in recent memory, Billy Burns took 5th in the Rookie of the Year voting in 2015.  For the future incarnation of the A's to be a success, Billy Burns needs to make sure last season was a sign of things to come and not a one hit wonder.

Most Important Pitcher

Sonny Gray

Over the last couple years, Sonny Gray has quietly become one of the best pitchers in baseball.  Now he is in his contract year on a team not expected to contend.  This makes Gray incredibly important for the A's as he will most likely be traded around the Trade Deadline.  The haul they are able to get for their ace will help set them up for some future success in the years to come.

Player to Watch

Sean Manaea

After trading away the farm in 2014 (Cubs phenom Addison Russell being one of them) they needed to rebuild their system.  Sean Manaea came over to Oakland from Kansas City in the Ben Zobrist deal last season.  Now he is one of their top prospects and set to make his big league debut this summer, especially if the A's have the type of season they are expected to have.

2016 Prediction

5th in AL West

I heard one prognosticator say that the A's are the only American League team without a realistic shot at the postseason entering the season.  I would agree with that, which probably means they will win the division.  However, they seem to be the only AL team in the middle of a rebuild.  Everyone else is prepping for a pennant run this season.  This season has the potential to once again be rough on the east side of the Bay, however Billy Beane never lets A's be down for too long.

Fearless Prediction

Half of the A's Opening Day lineup will be traded before the end of the season.

For a rebuilding team, they sure have a lot of veterans on their roster.  Look for guys like Sonny Gray, Chris Coghlan, Billy Butler, Jed Lowrie, Danny Valencia, Coco Crisp, and maybe even Josh Reddick traded before the end of the season to build up their farm system.  By season's end, all of these players will be most valuable to the A's as ways to improve their future.

2010's Mid-Decade Report: Oscar-less Best Picture Nominees

One of the more interesting aspects of the first half of this decade is the changing policies around the Oscars and their Best Picture lineups.  In 2008, there was such controversy surrounding the 5 Best Picture nominees that the Academy decided to change its nominating policies.  Instead of the traditional 5 nominees, there would be 10 in order to honor some of the more mainstream movies in the ceremony.  What the Academy quickly realized is not every year has 10 films worthy of being nominated.  (I am still wondering how The Blind Side is called a Best Picture nominee.)  After that failed experiment, they changed the rules again to make it a lineup of 5-10 movies based on how many were deserving that particular year (earning at least 5% of the first place votes).  We have been under these rules since 2011, which has given us years of nine nominees and one year (this last one) of only eight.  Either way, this decade has brought us more Best Picture nominees than we have had since the first few years of the award's existence.

So how successful has the Academy been?  These rule changes were put in place after 2008 to avoid critically-acclaimed blockbusters like WALL-E and The Dark Knight that are truly deserving to be left out of the Best Picture picture.  Has it been successful?  Well, in the 2000's there were 55 films nominated for Best Picture with 11 of them coming home without winning a single Oscar (four of those films coming from the embarrassment that was the 2009 lineup, the first top ten).  So far this decade, there have been 45 films nominated for Best Picture.  Of those, 14 of them did not win a single Oscar, raising the winless rate 11% from the previous decade.  If a film isn't best at anything, does it deserve film's highest honor?  Let's look at these 14 films and see if their resume truly deserves the title "Best Picture Nominee."

Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close

(2011)

2 nominations

Picture

Supporting Actor - Max von Sydow

This has got to be one of the strangest Best Picture nominees in some time.  It's only other nomination was a Supporting Actor nod that had no precursors outside of a couple random critic groups.  The film was completely shut out at the Golden Globes which normally likes heartfelt films with starpower like Tom Hanks and Sandra Bullock.  Add to that a film like The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo was left off that year's list while taking home an important win like Best Editing.  It was a quality film that I enjoyed, but it didn't seem to fit the honor.

Nomination Grade: F

The Tree of Life

(2011)

3 nominations

Picture

Director - Terrence Malick

Cinematography

There are artistic films, and then there are Terrence Malick films.  He doesn't make many movies, but this was only his second film nominated for Best Picture.  Every now and then these art films get nominated for the big prize, and its other nominations show how much respect the Academy had for its filmmaking.  However, there is no way this film gets into a five film lineup for Best Picture.  If the purpose of expanding the Best Picture lineup was to allow more mass-appealing films into the Best Picture lineup, why does a Terrence Malick film get one of the expanded spots?  That is about as opposite of "mass-appealing" as possible.

Nomination Grade: D

Philomena

(2013)

4 nominations

Picture

Actress - Judi Dench

Adapted Screenplay

Original Score

Every year, no matter how many films are nominated, there seems to be the stereotypical British film that works its way into the Best Picture lineup for some reason.  In 2013, that film was Philomena.  It had about every nomination one of these British films needs to justify its Best Picture appearance.  It had a major acting nomination, a screenplay nom, and one other random justification nod.  The only thing that would have made its case stronger would have been a Directing nomination.  Looking at the 2013 lineup, it would have been interesting to see if it would have made a five film lineup.  There are other films that were more worthy, but it is the type of film that sneaks in no matter what.  On top of that, it was a great film.  I have no problem with this film being a Best Picture nominee.

Nomination Grade: B-

Beasts of the Southern Wild

(2012)

4 nominations

Picture

Actress - Quvenzhane Wallis

Director - Benh Zeitlin

Adapted Screenplay

Another byproduct of expanding the Best Picture is bringing attention some small independent films that usually wouldn't be recognized as much.  Beasts of the Southern Wild is one of those films.  A film like this sometimes pops up in the screenplay lists.  However, it is rare a small independent film finds its way to screenplay, director, and acting nominations.  Maybe it got this much attention because it did have a chance at Best Picture so people paid more attention to it.  Maybe it really was that good in the eyes of the Academy.  I don't think it was that deserving of the honor, but it is hard to argue much with the resume it put together.

Nomination Grade: C+

Winter's Bone

(2010)

4 nominations

Picture

Actress - Jennifer Lawrence

Supporting Actor - John Hawkes

Adapted Screenplay

This film falls in a similar category as Beasts of the Southern Wild.  It deserved awards attention, but probably didn't deserve a Best Picture nomination.  As the one year that was forced to have 10 nominees this decade, I have to think Winter's Bone was the tenth film on the list.  If it hadn't been for a very surprising nomination for John Hawkes, it would not have had much of a resume to warrant Best Picture consideration.  However, many people forget that this was the film that announced the arrival of Jennifer Lawrence.  If it weren't for Winter's Bone, I don't know if she would be as much of a household name now.

Nomination Grade: C-

The Kids Are All Right

(2010)

4 nominations

Picture

Actress - Annette Bening

Supporting Actor - Mark Ruffalo

Original Screenplay

This is an actor's film.  Many times in films like this, there are not many nominations outside the major categories.  This is the case with this film as it only garnered two acting nominations and a screenplay nomination.  Julianne Moore could have easily been nominated as well, but wasn't.  Usually you would think a film like this deserves its Best Picture nomination, but it reminds me a little of a film like Doubt which earned four acting nominations and a screenplay nomination, but was left off the Best Picture top five of 2008.  However, Doubt deserved consideration for one of those spots just as much as fan favorites WALL-E and The Dark Knight did.  I have no problem seeing this film in the Best Picture category.

Nomination Grade: B

The Wolf of Wall Street

(2013)

5 nominations

Picture

Actor - Leonardo DiCaprio

Supporting Actor - Jonah Hill

Director - Martin Scorsese

Adapted Screenplay

Some filmmakers deserve the recognition of Best Picture for pretty much every film they put out.  This was Martin Scorsese's 8th film to be nominated for Best Picture, and it seems to have a very similar pedigree as some of his earlier films.  With that said, it would not have been a huge shock to see Leo DiCaprio walk away with Best Actor this time around (other than the fact that the Academy seems physically unable to give Leo his day in the sun).  It may only have five nominations, but they are all the important ones.  This was definitely a lock for Best Picture that year.

Nomination Grade: A-

Captain Phillips

(2013)

6 nominations

Picture

Supporting Actor - Barkhad Abdi

Adapted Screenplay

Sound Mixing

Editing

Sound Editing

It is a shame this film didn't have a 7th nomination as Tom Hanks was robbed in the Best Actor category.  With that said, looking back on it, this was a somewhat strange nomination.  It only had one acting nomination (for a film debut no less).  It had a screenplay nomination, but no directing recognition hurts it.  It had several tech noms, but Paul Greengrass always gets those noms whether his movie gets major recognition or not (see United 93 and The Bourne Ultimatum).  In a year with five nominees, this may have been left off the list.  However, as a fan of this film, I am happy I can call it a nominee.

Nomination Grade: B

Nebraska

(2013)

6 nominations

Picture

Actor - Bruce Dern

Supporting Actress - June Squibb

Director - Alexander Payne

Original Screenplay

Cinematography

This has everything you would expect to see out of a Best Picture nominee.  It has some solid acting nominations (with Bruce Dern in talks of winning to the very end), a previous winner nominated for director, the screenplay is nominated, and it got a solid tech nomination as well.  This film deserves its moniker.  It was just one of the unlucky films that couldn't beat anybody out.

Nomination Grade: A

War Horse

(2011)

6 nominations

Picture

Cinematography

Art Direction

Sound

Sound Editing

Original Score

There is a big difference between War Horse and Nebraska even though they had the same number of nominations.  While Nebraska had all the important nominations like acting, director, and screenplay, War Horse was only able to be recognized for its tech performances.  The only reason this was even considered a Best Picture contender is the fact that it was directed by Steven Spielberg.  In a year with five nominees, this would be the equivalent of films like King Kong or Memoirs of a Geisha, however those films actually won Oscars while not being nominated.  This probably didn't belong here.

Nomination Grade: C

Moneyball

(2011)

6 nominations

Picture

Actor - Brad Pitt

Supporting Actor - Jonah Hill

Adapted Screenplay

Sound

Editing

If my brother has convinced me of anything in regards to the Oscars, it is that under most circumstances, a nomination for Best Editing is an indication of a movie loved by the Academy.  Add that to two acting nominations, a screenplay nomination, and a film fronted by a previous directing nominee, and you have quite a strong resume for Best Picture.  This film definitely deserves its title, even if it is about the Oakland A's...

Nomination Grade: A-

127 Hours

(2010)

6 nominations

Picture

Actor - James Franco

Adapted Screenplay

Editing

Original Song

Original Score

I can't think of this film's run at the Oscars without thinking of the bizarre behavior of James Franco while hosting the Oscars that year.  For that performance alone, I wish this film hadn't gotten so much recognition.  As it is, as much as I love this movie, it didn't really earn its way to being a Best Picture nominee.  It did have some key nominations like actor, screenplay, and editing, and it also was the follow-up film for a recent winner, but its other two nominations were for music.  Those are categories where many films get their one and only nominations.  As it was, they were more honoring another recent winner in A.R. Rahman than honoring the film.  This fits in a similar category as Cast Away.  Franco deserved his nomination (despite the Oscars), and the film deserved some recognition, but not Hollywood's highest honor.

Nomination Grade: C

American Hustle

(2013)

10 nominations

Picture

Actor - Christian Bale

Actress - Amy Adams

Supporting Actor - Bradley Cooper

Supporting Actress - Jennifer Lawrence

Director - David O. Russell

Original Screenplay

Production Design

Costume Design

Editing

Of all the films on this list, American Hustle deserves to be here.  Its 10 nominations are tied for second most of all time for a film to get shut out.  It achieved a true rarity by getting nominated in every major category (Picture, Director, Screenplay, and all 4 acting categories).  The ironic thing is it was the second year in a row David O. Russell pulled off this feat.  It is also amazing how close this movie was to not being on this list.  Jennifer Lawrence was an Oscar favorite through much of the awards season, and it would not have been a surprise if the film walked away with the Best Picture honor.  Instead, it walked away with nothing, but it definitely deserves to be called a Best Picture nominee.

Nomination Grade: A+

True Grit

(2010)

10 nominations

Picture

Actor - Jeff Bridges

Supporting Actress - Hailee Steinfeld

Director - The Coen Brothers

Adapted Screenplay

Cinematography

Art Direction

Costume Design

Sound

Sound Editing

This is one of the films American Hustle is tied with.  The Coens are almost guaranteed to get some serious recognition whenever they put out a movie, even if it is a remake of a beloved classic John Wayne western.  Although this one wasn't as deserving as American Hustle (no editing nom, not as many acting noms), it still belongs in the Best Picture discussion.  You have the recent winner getting recognized again in Jeff Bridges, the directors of a recent Best Picture winner getting honored again for producing, directing, and writing, and you have the fact that the Academy loves westerns.  Everything about this film screams award worthy, except for the fact that it didn't win any.

Nomination Grade: A

After looking at all these films, let's ask the question again.  Has it worked?  I think they have succeeded in drawing the public's attention to more quality films that the masses otherwise would not have heard of.  There have been very few instances where the big blockbusters have garnered extra recognition by being nominated.  I think this is partially because very few of the big blockbusters this decade have been high quality enough to be recognized in this way.  I think the recent rules for Best Picture are much better for honoring the movies that deserve it.  If you noticed, there were no 2014 films on this list as all 2014 Best Picture nominees walked away with at least one Oscar.  Rumors are beginning to swirl that the Academy is considering changing their rules for Best Picture once again.  Although I did like the group of five every year, I also appreciate the need to expand with the ever-expanding industry.  The current rules ensure no more films like The Blind Side end up as an Best Picture nominee (although Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close made it under the current rules).  I would like to see the rules stay the same.  However, it will be interesting to see what we talk about when it comes to Best Picture nominees at the end of this decade.  Either way, these 14 films are now immortalized in exclusive company whether they deserve it or not.

2012 Oscar Predictions: Final (Major Categories)

After the Golden Globes and Critics Choice awards, everything seems to be much clearer. Here is how it will shake out on January 24^th at 5:30 in the morning Pacific Time (screw the east coast, no one cares)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Predicted Five

1. The Descendants – Alexander Payne takes this for his second film in a row!

2. Moneyball – Aaron Sorkin can’t win two years in a row, can he? The Critics Choice win was big, though.

3. The Ides of March – The Golden Globes and Clooney love will probably secure this nomination

4. Hugo – The favorites in the major categories are normally mentioned here.

5. The Help – This is a dark horse for Best Picture. I can’t see it missing for a nomination here.

Others in contention

6. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo – Got the WGA nom, but with ineligibility, basically anything could get mentioned there. I have a feeling this film is stronger than we are all anticipating.

7. War Horse – If it gets in for Best Picture which is not a certainty anymore, this will probably be another nomination for it.

8. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close – No one has really seen this, but the Critics Choice liked it. Why am I underestimating the sentimental Stephen Daldry again?

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

The Predicted Five

1. Midnight in Paris – Two wins in four days for Woody, but where is he? A good speech would really have secured his win!

2. The Artist – The default winner if it is the clean sweep it will likely be.

3. Win Win – The quietest of all contenders, but this nomination is a near certainty.

4. Young Adult – A past winner returns to form with a brilliant dark comedy. Seems like Oscar stuff.

5. A Separation – The Globes awarding this is big. It must just be a unanimous hit, but where is it playing? Will enough voters see it for it to get in this category?

Others in contention

6. The Tree of Life – Everyone is ignoring it, but this category is not out of the question.

7. Bridesmaids – Could be one of the worst screenplays ever nominated if it gets in.

8. 50/50 - A very dark horse, but the precursors are piling up. Can this pull a shocker?

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Octavia Spencer – The Help – Seems ridiculous, but this is a lock for the win.

2. Jessica Chastain – The Help – The best in the cast, but stands no chance against her overrated costar.

3. Berenice Bejo – The Artist – Obvious nominee, but only if The Artist is winning EVERYTHING and The Help doesn’t get the major noms will she stand a chance at victory.

4. Shailene Woodley – The Descendants – She was amazing, and her movie is one of the favorites. She will likely snag a spot.

5. Janet McTeer – Albert Nobbs – The Globe nod helps, but this is really just a race for second place.

Others in contention

6. Melissa McCarthy – Bridesmaids – She sucked, but the SAG and Critics Choice noms are disturbingly telling.

7. Sandra Bullock – Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close – No precursors, but if they love the film (and we know they love her), she will get in.

Annual Tommy Lee Jones – In the Valley of Elah Shocker Nomination: Jeannie Berlin – Margaret

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Christopher Plummer – Beginners – It’s over. It sucks, but it’s over.

2. Kenneth Branagh – My Week with Marilyn – Biopic role, beloved star. He is in for sure.

3. Albert Brooks – Drive – The only time an actor has missed the SAG nom and won the Oscar was Marcia Gay Harden in 2000. He can’t win, but his nom has to happen.

4. Nick Nolte – Warrior – His SAG nom showed the support from the right group of people. He has been nominated twice. Can this be an all veteran category?

5. Armie Hammer – J. Edgar – The SAG nomination is a good sign for him, who seems to be the forgotten one of the category. Make-up nom in the tradition of Josh Brolin in Milk?

Others in contention

6. Jonah Hill – Moneyball – Has the precursors, but this reeks of the Mila Kunis snub.

7. Viggo Mortensen – A Dangerous Method – A very quiet contender, but he has enough support to make a run.

8. Patton Oswalt – Young Adult – He has the Oscar scene, but the movie’s support may not be strong enough.

Annual Tommy Lee Jones – In the Valley of Elah Shocker Nomination: Brad Pitt – The Tree of Life

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Meryl Streep – The Iron Lady – This is going to be a close vote, but 30 years without a win is just stupid with all those nominations she gets.

2. Viola Davis – The Help – She obviously has the support of her peers, but she is up against the woman that arguably made her career take off.

3. Michelle Williams – My Week with Marilyn – The Golden Globe win solidified her nomination. If Streep and Davis split, she could be a Tilda Swinton-esque winner.

4. Rooney Mara – The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo – Astonishing work. If we really were awarding the best performances, she would win. Since we aren’t, a nomination will just do.

5. Glenn Close – Albert Nobbs – Transformation role, veteran who has not won and is often snubbed. She will slide in.

Others in contention

6. Tilda Swinton – We Need to Talk About Kevin – She is said to be terrific, and she took a Globe nod. If enough voters see it in time, she could be a surprise mention.

7. Charlize Theron – Young Adult – She has the resume to do it, but I can’t see her supplanting one of the predicted five.

8. Elizabeth Olsen – Martha Marcy May Marlene – Excellent performance that will probably come up just short. Not quite the unanimous hit that Winter’s Bone was.

Annual Tommy Lee Jones – In the Valley of Elah Shocker Nomination: Olivia Colman - Tyrannosaur

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. George Clooney – The Descendents – Beating Pitt at the Globes locked this one up.

2. Brad Pitt – Moneyball – The nomination is obvious, but I don’t think he can win anymore. As Clooney said, “I would like to live in a world where Brad Pitt is an Oscar winner.” We may never see that day, sadly.

3. Jean Dujardin – The Artist – Playing the Jeremy Renner overlooked role in the favorite film sucks, doesn’t it? Oh, and stop trying to be quirky at the ceremonies. We get it. The movie is silent and you are French. Hilarious…

4. Leonardo DiCaprio – J. Edgar – The Clint movies are never completely ignored…

5. Michael Fassbender – Shame – He seems to be the talk of the year, along with Ryan Gosling. He is so good in this movie, that I can see this being the Javier Bardem late entry nominee.

Others in contention

6. Gary Oldman – Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy – Another snub for Oldman? This is getting ridiculous.

7. Michael Shannon – Take Shelter – Everyone who saw it knows he should win. If enough see it, he may just pull off a nom.

8. Demien Bichir – A Better Life – How the hell did that SAG nom happen? Whatever. He is a contender, I guess.

Annual Tommy Lee Jones – In the Valley of Elah Shocker Nomination: Paul Giamatti – Win Win

BEST DIRECTOR

The Predicted Five

1. Michel Hazanavicius – The Artist – The Best Picture-Best Director awards almost never split anymore. Sigh…

2. Martin Scorsese – Hugo – The Globe win helps, but he always wins there.

3. David Fincher – The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo – The guilds minus the SAG loved his film. Sound familiar?

4. Alexander Payne – The Descendents – The Globe win for Best Picture-Drama was vital. His film could win it all with some luck and a few more horrible speeches by the crew of The Artist.

5. Woody Allen – Midnight in Paris – The guilds loved it. The Globes and critics adored it. He is back in form. Maybe he will show up for this one.

Others in contention

6. Steven Spielberg – War Horse – The frontrunner goes down! Good, he didn’t deserve it anyway.

7. Terrence Malick – The Tree of Life – We thought the Director nom with no Picture nom splits were over now that the nominees increased. If any film is worthy of that, it is this one.

8. Tate Taylor – The Help – The major awards noms are obvious, but this one is more difficult. The DGA snub hurt.

9. Bennett Miller – Moneyball – The Acedemy loves a good underdog. Will they take anoint Moneyball with this nomination?

10. Stephen Daldry – Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close – Screw it. I refuse to underestimate him again. I should just predict him and get it over with.

BEST PICTURE

The Predicted Ten Seven

1. The Artist – The one to beat. It almost cannot lose at this point, unless the voters do not want to listen to another one of those speeches.

2. The Descendents – The Golden Globe win speaks volumes. With a possible SAG win, this could make it close.

3. Hugo – All the techs do not mean Best Picture anymore.

4. The Help – Is going to get a strong push, but it doesn’t have Weinstein behind it.

5. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo – It is getting all the right noms as of late. Will the Academy be awesome for once and give this a chance?

6. Moneyball – I fear a snub here, but it seems to have the support to make it at least to the ceremony. If Pitt was a more solid Actor contender, then this would be a lock.

7. Midnight in Paris – It is obviously proving the early release date critics wrong. Will one last Woody Allen work of art be a contender for the prize? Probably not, but it deserves consideration.

Others in contention

8. The Tree of Life – Missed all the important awards, but it only needs 5% first place votes. Are there enough Malick fans?

9. War Horse – His snubs recently are shocking. I don’t see a nom happening.

10. Bridesmaids – The PGA, SAG, and WGA noms showed that people care, but are there enough of those stupid people?

11. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close - Maybe not enough people have seen it. It could surprise.