2021 Pre-Season Profile: Oakland Athletics

 #8

Every year, the Oakland Athletics seem to outperform other teams loaded with more star power and big contracts.  Will 2021 continue their run of seemingly anonymous success?

2020 Predictions

#9 - 2nd in AL West, WILD CARD, lose in Wild Card Game

MIH - Marcus Semien

MIP - Liam Hendriks

PTW - Jesus Luzardo

2020 Results

#5 - 36-24, 1st in AL West, lost in ALDS

The A's once again put together a stellar regular season even though it was short.  Taking the crown in the AL West with a bad year from their 2019 MVP candidate in Marcus Semien and without a full season from their best player in Matt Chapman, the A's showed just how much of a collective team they are.  With that said, when everything was on the line in the playoffs, they couldn't beat the Astros even though they were by far the superior team in the regular season.  This seems to be the next step for the A's; turn regular season success into postseason success.

Additions / Subtractions

It may be a challenge for the A's to improve much this season considering what they lost this offseason.  Marcus Semien and Liam Hendriks, two of their most productive players over the last few seasons, signed free agent deals elsewhere.  Outfielder Robbie Grossman also moved on.  To replace Semien at shortstop, they traded away DH Khris Davis for veteran shortstop Elvis Andrus in one of the more fascinating trades of the offseason.  They also signed Trevor Rosenthal and Sergio Romo to help fill the void in the bullpen left by Hendriks.  The only other significant move made was signing Mitch Moreland as a possible DH and depth option.

Most Important Hitter

Matt Olson

Matt Olson is another player that wasn't stellar for the A's in 2020, but he is a cornerstone of their lineup.  A Gold Glove caliber first baseman, Olson has also shown some great pop in the heart of the order.  He has the potential to continue to grow into a superstar, but he has to bounce back from the lackluster 2020.  The Two Matt's (Olson and Chapman) are the keys to so much of what the A's do in 2021.  Since they proved last season they could survive extended stretches without Chapman, that makes Olson the pick here.

Most Important Pitcher

Jesus Luzardo

The A's have a lot of unassuming but productive talent in the lineup that can match up with anyone.  If they lack one thing, it is an ace that can go toe-to-toe with any team out there.  Chris Bassitt had an outstanding year in 2020, but he is reaching the back half of his career so who knows how long that will keep up.  The future ace of this staff needs to be Jesus Luzardo.  It may be a little too early to place huge expectations on a guy like this as he is only entering his age 23 season, but he has the dynamic stuff to be a star in the league.  He was just about average in 2020, finishing with a 98 ERA+.  He needs to take a huge leap forward and be the stopper that rotation desperately needs. if they plan on having the postseason success they have been missing.

Prospect to Watch

A.J. Puk

It's about time for the A's to start retooling their farm system.  They currently boast no prospects in the Top 100 and sit in the lower third of the league in terms of overall farm system.  With all that said, I think it is finally time for A.J. Puk to break out.  This 6'7" lefty has been on the verge of stardom for several years now, but some injuries have delayed his arrival.  Now he is about to turn 26 years old and has fallen out of the Top 100 simply because who knows if he can stay healthy.  His stuff is electric though, and if he can finally put it all together, watch out!

2021 Prediction

1st in AL West, lose in ALDS

This season has the potential to look very similar to Oakland fans.  They are going to have an excellent regular season, aided by a potentially softening division.  Then they will get to the playoffs and run into some juggernaut superteams and not stand a chance.  I think playoff appearances might be the peak for this team as it is currently constructed.  Going beyond that would be an over-achievement they have not been able to reach quite yet.

Fearless Predictions

Before Opening Day 2022, Matt Chapman and Matt Olson will be traded, a new ballpark deal is done, or the A's will announce a relocation.

Both Matts are under club control with the A's through the 2023 season.  With the trajectory their careers are headed, it is only a matter of time before the A's look to unload them at their peak value before they have to pay them too much, especially considering their lackluster farm system.  Either that, or something in their situation in Oakland changes that helps them bring in more revenue and allows them to sign someone to a long term deal.  Or they get ready to leave town.  In the next 12 months, it is very likely that one of those three things happens.

2019 Pre-Season Profile: Oakland Athletics

#10

The Oakland A's were the biggest surprise of the 2018 season, working their way all the way up to a Wild Card spot.  Can the A's repeat the success of last year?

2018 Predictions

5th in AL West

Khris Davis will be the starting DH for the AL in the All Star Game.

2018 Results

97-65, 2nd in AL West, WILD CARD, lost in Wild Card Game

I was way off on the A's, but I can't quite say it is surprising.  Every time I count the A's out, they end up making the playoffs.  If I predict they do well, they end up in the cellar.  The A's are just out to mess up me and my Mariners.  Oakland once again put everything together in a way no other organization can and took a roster of no namers and resurrection projects and turned it into a 97 win team.  That's a ton of wins!  I correctly predicted the breakout year for Khris Davis, however I didn't count on J.D. Martinez almost winning an MVP as a DH.

Additions / Subtractions

The Athletics stayed consistent with who they are and made some minor moves that have the potential of having a major impact.  The biggest move the A's made was trade for Jurickson Profar to replace Jed Lowrie at second base.  Then they brought in Robbie Grossman, a very underrated hitter, to add some outfield depth.  Marco Estrada becomes the latest starter they bring in to try and resurrect some past glory.  No move wows you, but all the moves both make sense and will work out.

Most Important Hitter

Matt Chapman

This might be possibly the biggest star in baseball that no one has still heard of.  Matt Chapman took his first full season in the big leagues in 2018 and tallied a 6 win season in terms of WAR.  He had a 136 OPS+, won a Gold Glove at the very competitive third base, and finished 7th in AL MVP voting.  He showed he can be a big time star, and the A's are going to need him to repeat last year's great performance if they want to maintain the success of last season.  It feels like the team's success is pretty closely tied to Chapman's success.

Most Important Pitcher

Frankie Montas

The A's always seem to cobble together a rotation of veterans looking for a rebirth on their careers.  This year is no different with their rotation starting with Mike Fiers (better than advertised, but a journeyman), Marco Estrada, and Brett Anderson at the top.  There aren't many young guns facotring into their rotation right now, especially with Jharel Cotton and no-hit boy Sean Manaea starting the season on the injured list as they continue to recover from injuries they sustained last season.  The best pitcher in their Opening Day rotation under the age of 30 is Frankie Montas.  Montas came to the A's in the Rich Hill deal with the Dodgers a few seasons ago, and they are still waiting for him to break out.  He had decent success last year in 65 innings with the A's.  Now he needs to establish himself as a real starting pitcher in this league to help provide some promise for the future in the rotation.  If he does, their rotation will be scary once Manaea and Cotton are healthy and top prospects Jesus Luzardo and A.J. Puk join the team at some point in the next season or two.

Prospect to Watch

Sean Murphy

One underrated subtraction from the A's that might have quite an impact in 2019 is Jonathan Lucroy leaving to sign with the Angels.  He was an important part of handling the pitching staff last season.  However, one of the reasons they let him go was the anticipation of Sean Murphy making his debut at some point in 2019.  He is a solid hitter but will make the most impact as a defender behind the plate.  The A's have a couple veterans filling in at catcher this season waiting for Murphy to be ready.

2019 Prediction

2nd in AL West, WILD CARD, lose in Wild Card Game

I think the A's have everything in place to make another big run and make the postseason.  Seeing how good the top of the American League is, they don't have much of a chance getting further.  It will still be quite the feat if they are able to make back-to-back runs to the postseason.

Fearless Prediction

Blake Treinen will lead the American League in saves in 2019.

Blake Treinen was another huge surprise for the A's last season.  Ending the season with 38 saves, Treinen ended the year with a 0.78 ERA.  He only gave up 7 earned runs all year!  The guy was a stud, and he will repeat that production on another postseason run for the A's.  A team built on pitching, especially their elite bullpen, will be in a lot of close games giving Treinen a lot of opportunities to tally a league-leading amount of saves.

2018 Pre-Season Profile: Oakland Athletics

#25

The Oakland A's always ride a fine line between tanking and competing.  Will they be relevant in 2018?

2017 Predictions

4th in AL West

Half of the A's Opening Day roster will be traded by the end of the season.

2017 Results

75-87, 5th in AL West

2017 was another below average season for the A's.  It was not that long ago that they were trading for guys like Jon Lester and Jeff Samardzija mid-season to make a deep run in the playoffs.  Now they are hardly recognizable from that playoff team.  They have spent the last few seasons building up a new young core to lead them moving forward.  As for the prediction of roster turnover, about half of the players that played Opening Day last season are no longer in the Oakland organization.

Additions / Subtractions

There was once again a decent amount of roster turnover for Oakland this offseason.  They spent some resources building up their bullpen, bringing in a young arm in Emilio Pagan (trading slugger Ryon Healy) and a veteran in Yusmeiro Petit (free agency).  The biggest moves they made that can have lasting impacts are the signing of All Star catcher Jonathan Lucroy and the trade for outfielder Stephen Piscotty.  These are moves that have the potential to help Oakland right now, showing they feel they are getting close to competing again.

Most Important Hitter

Stephen Piscotty

The trade for Piscotty was, reportedly, to get him closer to home for family reasons.  However, it was a great move for Oakland that may pay off well.  Piscotty was touted as the next great All Star outfielder for the St. Louis Cardinals several years ago when he made his debut.  However, he rarely showed signs of eclipsing the lofty expectations put upon him.  If he can find some more production in a place that may be more comfortable for him, this could turn out to be a steal for the A's and a potential centerpiece of their new wave of young talent.

Most Important Pitcher

Sean Manaea

Only a couple years ago, Sean Manaea was the A's top prospect looking to break onto the scene.  Now, Manaea is actually one of their more experienced starters.  He is also on the verge of breaking out and showing what he can really do.  He showed flashes of brilliance last season, but it was inconsistent.  It is time for Manaea to show if he will be a star for the A's moving forward.

Prospect to Watch

A.J. Puk

The first round pick of the A's in the 2016 draft, A.J. Puk is a big left-handed pitcher that seems to be on the fast track to the big leagues.  In his first full season of professional baseball, he led all of the minor leagues with 13.2 strikeouts per 9 innings.  The A's will probably be looking to give some youngsters a chance to show what they can do at some point this season, and the debut of Puk will not only be one of them but will probably be one that make some noise around baseball.

2018 Prediction

5th in AL West

Let's start with the good news.  The A's are looking to finally have this new young core starting to emerge.  Players like Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, Stephen Piscotty, and Dustin Fowler are going to be mainstays in their lineup for the foreseeable future.  As they grow together, they will start to compete and be relevant again.  The A's will probably be better this year than they were last year.  Now the bad news.  The A's are stuck in one of the most competitive divisions in baseball right now.  The Angels and Mariners are both expected to make strides towards a postseason berth, the Rangers can never be counted out of being relevant every year, and the Astros are the reigning World Champions.  The A's are heading in the right direction, but their record might now show it in 2018.

Fearless Prediction

Khris Davis will be the starting DH for the AL in the All Star Game.

Kris Davis has quietly become one of the more prolific power hitters over the past few seasons.  In 2017, he had 43 home runs and 110 RBI's.  This followed up a 2016 season of almost identical numbers.  His biggest knock has been poor defense, but if he stays the designated hitter for the A's this season, he has a chance to finally be recognized.  There is some great competition in this spot, but Davis has a chance to really shine in 2018.

2017 Pre-Season Profile: Oakland Athletics

#25

Over the past few years, the Oakland A's have hit the reset button Moneyball style.  After a few seasons at the bottom of the division, will 2017 see some progress back to the top of the division with this new core?

My 2016 Predictions

5th in AL West

Half of the A's Opening Day lineup will be traded before the end of the season.

2016 Results

69-93, 5th in AL West

No one expected much from the A's in 2016, and they didn't disappoint.  The makeshift lineup put together led the A's back to the cellar for a second straight year.  This was another transition year as their farm system was being restocked.  As for my prediction, it came up just a bit short.  Four of the ten Opening Day starters (Billy Burns, Josh Reddick, Aaron Hill, Billy Butler) were traded by the end of the season, however Danny Valencia was traded this offseason so I am going to label this prediction as fulfilled.

Additions / Subtractions

The A's have made their offseason strategy an art form.  They buy low on some solid veterans looking to prove themselves, then flip them at the Trade Deadline for more prospects to build their farm system.  Like I said, a good portion of their lineup was flipped last year with Valencia traded this offseason.  The new crop of vets to land in Oakland includes Trevor Plouffe, Rajai Davis, Matt Joyce, and Santiago Casilla.

Most Important Hitter

Khris Davis

One highlight of the 2016 Athletics was the emergence of Khris Davis.  He exploded for 42 home runs and 102 RBI's while becoming the A's best player.  Now he will have a target on his back as he will not catch anyone by surprise this year.  Can he repeat his production from last year?  If so, he is on the verge of becoming a superstar that could lead the next great A's run (or be traded, depending on what Billy Beane wants to do).  If he can't, the A's are further away from success than they want to be.

Most Important Pitcher

Sonny Gray

In 2015, Sonny Gray emerged as the next great A's ace, verging on the brink of being a superstar.  In 2016, he battled injuries to start the season.  When he came back, he was a different pitcher, finishing the year with a 5.69 ERA.  If the A's want to have any chance of being relevant in 2017, Sonny Gray needs to be his 2015 version and not his 2016 version.

Player to Watch

Franklin Barreto

Any hardcore Athletics should already know the name of Franklin Barreto.  The 21 year-old infielder is not only A's top prospect and baseball's 52nd best prospect overall, he was also the key piece sent back to A's in the Josh Donaldson trade with the Blue Jays.  Knowing that, it's obvious to see why his debut is so anticipated.  Barreto's career is the only thing that could prevent the Donaldson trade from going down as one of the worst trades in baseball history.  2017 is the first chance we have to see young Barreto on the field in Oakland.  With Marcus Semien seemingly having shortstop locked up, second base is more likely to be the position at which he makes his debut.

2017 Prediction

4th in AL West

You have to give Oakland credit; they are never down for that long.  Their latest group of prospects are getting ready to hit the big leagues, while their latest group of veterans will most likely be shipped off for more prospects.  They have a chance of getting off to a fast start with the veterans, while the rookies will make the second half exciting.  When all is said and done, they still won't be very good, but they are at least heading in the right direction.

Fearless Prediction

Half of the A's Opening Day roster will be traded by the end of the season.

Yes, it is the same prediction as last year, but it doesn't make it any less relevant.  Look at their lineup.  Half of this lineup is in Oakland so that they can earn their way to a deadline trade.  Look for Trevor Plouffe, Rajai Davis, Matt Joyce, and maybe even players like Marcus Semien, Sonny Gray, and Stephen Vogt to be dealt before all is said and done.

2016 Pre-Season Profile: Oakland Athletics

We may now be two weeks into the season, but it isn't too late to look at a preview for a few last teams.  How will the Oakland A's fare in 2016?

Last Season

My 2015 Prediction: 5th in AL West

2015 Result: 68-94, 5th in AL West

I was finally right!  Every year, it seemed that the Oakland A's would put a sub-par team on the field, and yet they would still compete and sometimes even make the playoffs.  After going all in for the 2014 season, the 2015 season saw them finally come crashing back down to earth.  The A's hit the cellar in 2015 for the first time since 2009 as it seemed they were trying to hit the reset button after the disappointing finish in 2014.

2016 Additions / Subtractions

This offseason saw the A's continue to unload some of their major league talent as Brett Lawrie, Scott Kazmir, and Jesse Chavez left either by trade or free agency.  They did bring in a few guys too, like Khris Davis, Chris Coghlan, and Ryan Madson.  However, the roster still looks very much like a work in progress.

Most Important Hitter

Billy Burns

Has there ever been a more "moneyball" player than Billy Burns?  He is a 5'9", 170 pound, switch-hitting, slap hitter that plays centerfield.  Nothing about him looks like a big leaguer except his stat line.  In one of the deepest rookie classes in recent memory, Billy Burns took 5th in the Rookie of the Year voting in 2015.  For the future incarnation of the A's to be a success, Billy Burns needs to make sure last season was a sign of things to come and not a one hit wonder.

Most Important Pitcher

Sonny Gray

Over the last couple years, Sonny Gray has quietly become one of the best pitchers in baseball.  Now he is in his contract year on a team not expected to contend.  This makes Gray incredibly important for the A's as he will most likely be traded around the Trade Deadline.  The haul they are able to get for their ace will help set them up for some future success in the years to come.

Player to Watch

Sean Manaea

After trading away the farm in 2014 (Cubs phenom Addison Russell being one of them) they needed to rebuild their system.  Sean Manaea came over to Oakland from Kansas City in the Ben Zobrist deal last season.  Now he is one of their top prospects and set to make his big league debut this summer, especially if the A's have the type of season they are expected to have.

2016 Prediction

5th in AL West

I heard one prognosticator say that the A's are the only American League team without a realistic shot at the postseason entering the season.  I would agree with that, which probably means they will win the division.  However, they seem to be the only AL team in the middle of a rebuild.  Everyone else is prepping for a pennant run this season.  This season has the potential to once again be rough on the east side of the Bay, however Billy Beane never lets A's be down for too long.

Fearless Prediction

Half of the A's Opening Day lineup will be traded before the end of the season.

For a rebuilding team, they sure have a lot of veterans on their roster.  Look for guys like Sonny Gray, Chris Coghlan, Billy Butler, Jed Lowrie, Danny Valencia, Coco Crisp, and maybe even Josh Reddick traded before the end of the season to build up their farm system.  By season's end, all of these players will be most valuable to the A's as ways to improve their future.