2021 Pre-Season Profile: Cincinnati Reds

 #19

The Cincinnati Reds went for it in 2020, but ended up losing in the first round of the playoffs.  Will 2021 be another step towards contention, or will they be taking a step back?

2020 Predictions

#7 - 1st in NL Central, lose in NLDS

MIH - Eugenio Suarez

MIP - Raisel Iglesias

PTW - Tony Santillan

2020 Results

#13 - 31-29, 2nd NL Central, lost in Wild Card Round

The Reds looked like they had the roster in 2020 to make a deep run.  Their lineup had some pop, and their rotation was elite, led by Cy Young winner Trevor Bauer.  Thanks to the expanded playoffs, they found themselves in the tournament, but didn't score a run in their Wild Card sweep by the Braves.

Additions / Subtractions

After one year of going for it, the Reds seemed to partially give up on their run before it ever started.  First, Trevor Bauer left in free agency (and the Reds never even attempted to bring him back).  Then they traded closer Raisel Iglesias to the Angels (they signed Sean Doolittle to fill the role).  Shortstop Freddy Galvis signed in Baltimore in free agency (and wasn't replaced by another veteran).  The offseason was also mired in rumors of whether aces Luis Castillo and Sonny Gray would also be traded.  For now, they are still on the roster showing the Reds weren't quite willing to sell the whole farm.

Most Important Hitter

Nick Senzel

One of the top Reds prospects from a couple years ago was Nick Senzel.  Now he is the starting centerfielder, but he has yet to fulfill any of the promise of his prospect status.  Right now, Senzel has a career .245 average and an 83 OPS+ in two seasons.  Hardly the production you expect out of a top prospect.  He needs to take a step or two forward to make this lineup truly work.

Most Important Pitcher

Luis Castillo

Luis Castillo is on his way to being one of the elite pitchers in the league.  As of right now, he is still a Red and the most impactful pitcher on their staff.  With Trevor Bauer's departure, the spotlight will now be on him to lead the staff.  This could be a breakout season for Castillo.  The question is if that production will be putting the Reds in contention or if he will be traded to help someone else.

Prospect to Watch

Jose Garcia

The Reds have four prospects in baseball's Top 100.  Jose Garcia is not one of them, but he has a golden opportunity that could lead to some great success for the 22 year old prospect.  The Reds lost their shortstop in free agency and never replaced him.  That forced them to find an internal solution, and Jose Garcia appears to be that solution to start the season.  Ranked the 6th best prospect in the Reds system, this Cuban defector shows a lot of promise to be an everyday shortstop in the league for quite some time.

2021 Prediction

3rd in NL Central

Like I said when I previewed the Cubs, the NL Central was wide open in 2020 and is wide open this season too even though it looks like a couple teams are heading in the wrong direction.  The Reds had one of the more curious offseasons.  It's like they wanted to do a full reset but couldn't find the right price for some of their more valuable assets.  So I guess they are forced to compete this year.  I see them having a little less turmoil and a little more depth than the Cubs which puts them in 3rd in the division.

Fearless Prediction

Over half of the Reds' Opening Day lineup will no longer be on the roster Opening Day 2022.

Like I said, the Reds tried to reset this offseason and couldn't.  Look for them to try and start unloading talent, maybe not mid-season but definitely next offseason.  Either that, or they reload since they still have a decent core.  I really don't understand what they are trying to do.

2019 Pre-Season Profile: Cincinnati Reds

#19

The Cincinnati Reds have been building up a strong farm system over the last couple years, but their on-field production has been lacking.  Will bringing in some veteran leadership finally bring about the change in the Reds' fortunes they have been waiting for?

2018 Predictions

5th in NL Central

This will be Bryan Price's last season as the Reds' manager.

2018 Results

67-95, 5th in NL Central

Last season was Bryan Price's fifth season as the Reds manager, and only lasted 18 games.  Apparently, losing over 90 games every season finally wasn't good enough.  The Reds, and especially their pitching staff, have been underwhelming all throughout his tenure.  It was long past time to move on.  There were some breakout performances from players like Scooter Gennett and Eugenio Suarez.

Additions / Subtractions

Rarely do you see a team with a streak of losing like this become buyers in the offseason.  However, that is exactly what happened with the Reds and their new manager David Bell.  They made several blockbuster trades to make them interesting.  They acquired Tanner Roark from the Nationals and Sonny Gray from the Yankees.  Then, in what might be the biggest surprise of the offseason, the Reds sent Homer Bailey (who was quickly released) to the Dodgers for Matt Kemp, Yasiel Puig, and Alex Wood.  The only other notable subtractions were speedster Billy Hamilton and starter Matt Harvey.

Most Important Hitter

Yasiel Puig

The Reds made some big moves in the offseason to help change their culture.  So they picked up one of the most polarizing players in the big leagues over the last decade.  When Yasiel Puig is on, he is one of the best in the league.  When Puig is off, he is bad and a distraction.  If nothing else, Puig is exciting.  He is instantly the most interesting player on the Reds and might be able to anchor their lineup with Joey Votto,  It all depends on what Puig shows up.  Maybe the change of scenery will be good for him.

Most Important Pitcher

Sonny Gray

For a struggling pitching staff, a proven commodity is exactly what they need.  Sonny Gray has had a bit of a rocky road over the last year or so.  He started 2017 in Oakland before being traded mid-season to the Yankees.  In 2018, he struggled greatly in the Bronx with one of his worst seasons as a professional.  The Reds acquired him with the idea that a change of scenery, and a reunion with his college pitching coach, will bring him back to his All Star level.  If he does, he may stabilize this entire pitching staff.

Prospect to Watch

Nick Senzel

The second overall pick in the 2016 Draft, Nick Senzel is the 6th best prospect in the league and about ready to break out when given the opportunity.  He tore up AAA in 2018 with a .310 average.  The only problem is his two positions, second and third base, currently have two of the Reds best hitters in Gennett and Suarez.  This season, either one of them will be moved or Senzel will be sen t off to bring back more veterans that can help now.

2019 Prediction

4th in NL Central

All the moves the Reds made this offseason definitely have them moving in the right direction for the first time in awhile.  The problem is their division might have two or three playoff teams in it with possibly every team finishing above .500.  They will compete, which is more than could be said of them for the last five years.  However, their division will keep them away from the playoffs.  They will still be a fun team to watch all season though.

Fearless Prediction

Scooter Gennett will be traded mid-season.

This team is headed in the right direction for sure, but it doesn't mean they can't continue to seel off some pieces and rebuild.  With Nick Senzel waiting in the wings, Scooter has a chance to be expendable and bring back an impressive haul.  Look for him to be available and possibly moved by the Deadline.

2017 Pre-Season Profile: Oakland Athletics

#25

Over the past few years, the Oakland A's have hit the reset button Moneyball style.  After a few seasons at the bottom of the division, will 2017 see some progress back to the top of the division with this new core?

My 2016 Predictions

5th in AL West

Half of the A's Opening Day lineup will be traded before the end of the season.

2016 Results

69-93, 5th in AL West

No one expected much from the A's in 2016, and they didn't disappoint.  The makeshift lineup put together led the A's back to the cellar for a second straight year.  This was another transition year as their farm system was being restocked.  As for my prediction, it came up just a bit short.  Four of the ten Opening Day starters (Billy Burns, Josh Reddick, Aaron Hill, Billy Butler) were traded by the end of the season, however Danny Valencia was traded this offseason so I am going to label this prediction as fulfilled.

Additions / Subtractions

The A's have made their offseason strategy an art form.  They buy low on some solid veterans looking to prove themselves, then flip them at the Trade Deadline for more prospects to build their farm system.  Like I said, a good portion of their lineup was flipped last year with Valencia traded this offseason.  The new crop of vets to land in Oakland includes Trevor Plouffe, Rajai Davis, Matt Joyce, and Santiago Casilla.

Most Important Hitter

Khris Davis

One highlight of the 2016 Athletics was the emergence of Khris Davis.  He exploded for 42 home runs and 102 RBI's while becoming the A's best player.  Now he will have a target on his back as he will not catch anyone by surprise this year.  Can he repeat his production from last year?  If so, he is on the verge of becoming a superstar that could lead the next great A's run (or be traded, depending on what Billy Beane wants to do).  If he can't, the A's are further away from success than they want to be.

Most Important Pitcher

Sonny Gray

In 2015, Sonny Gray emerged as the next great A's ace, verging on the brink of being a superstar.  In 2016, he battled injuries to start the season.  When he came back, he was a different pitcher, finishing the year with a 5.69 ERA.  If the A's want to have any chance of being relevant in 2017, Sonny Gray needs to be his 2015 version and not his 2016 version.

Player to Watch

Franklin Barreto

Any hardcore Athletics should already know the name of Franklin Barreto.  The 21 year-old infielder is not only A's top prospect and baseball's 52nd best prospect overall, he was also the key piece sent back to A's in the Josh Donaldson trade with the Blue Jays.  Knowing that, it's obvious to see why his debut is so anticipated.  Barreto's career is the only thing that could prevent the Donaldson trade from going down as one of the worst trades in baseball history.  2017 is the first chance we have to see young Barreto on the field in Oakland.  With Marcus Semien seemingly having shortstop locked up, second base is more likely to be the position at which he makes his debut.

2017 Prediction

4th in AL West

You have to give Oakland credit; they are never down for that long.  Their latest group of prospects are getting ready to hit the big leagues, while their latest group of veterans will most likely be shipped off for more prospects.  They have a chance of getting off to a fast start with the veterans, while the rookies will make the second half exciting.  When all is said and done, they still won't be very good, but they are at least heading in the right direction.

Fearless Prediction

Half of the A's Opening Day roster will be traded by the end of the season.

Yes, it is the same prediction as last year, but it doesn't make it any less relevant.  Look at their lineup.  Half of this lineup is in Oakland so that they can earn their way to a deadline trade.  Look for Trevor Plouffe, Rajai Davis, Matt Joyce, and maybe even players like Marcus Semien, Sonny Gray, and Stephen Vogt to be dealt before all is said and done.

2016 Pre-Season Profile: Oakland Athletics

We may now be two weeks into the season, but it isn't too late to look at a preview for a few last teams.  How will the Oakland A's fare in 2016?

Last Season

My 2015 Prediction: 5th in AL West

2015 Result: 68-94, 5th in AL West

I was finally right!  Every year, it seemed that the Oakland A's would put a sub-par team on the field, and yet they would still compete and sometimes even make the playoffs.  After going all in for the 2014 season, the 2015 season saw them finally come crashing back down to earth.  The A's hit the cellar in 2015 for the first time since 2009 as it seemed they were trying to hit the reset button after the disappointing finish in 2014.

2016 Additions / Subtractions

This offseason saw the A's continue to unload some of their major league talent as Brett Lawrie, Scott Kazmir, and Jesse Chavez left either by trade or free agency.  They did bring in a few guys too, like Khris Davis, Chris Coghlan, and Ryan Madson.  However, the roster still looks very much like a work in progress.

Most Important Hitter

Billy Burns

Has there ever been a more "moneyball" player than Billy Burns?  He is a 5'9", 170 pound, switch-hitting, slap hitter that plays centerfield.  Nothing about him looks like a big leaguer except his stat line.  In one of the deepest rookie classes in recent memory, Billy Burns took 5th in the Rookie of the Year voting in 2015.  For the future incarnation of the A's to be a success, Billy Burns needs to make sure last season was a sign of things to come and not a one hit wonder.

Most Important Pitcher

Sonny Gray

Over the last couple years, Sonny Gray has quietly become one of the best pitchers in baseball.  Now he is in his contract year on a team not expected to contend.  This makes Gray incredibly important for the A's as he will most likely be traded around the Trade Deadline.  The haul they are able to get for their ace will help set them up for some future success in the years to come.

Player to Watch

Sean Manaea

After trading away the farm in 2014 (Cubs phenom Addison Russell being one of them) they needed to rebuild their system.  Sean Manaea came over to Oakland from Kansas City in the Ben Zobrist deal last season.  Now he is one of their top prospects and set to make his big league debut this summer, especially if the A's have the type of season they are expected to have.

2016 Prediction

5th in AL West

I heard one prognosticator say that the A's are the only American League team without a realistic shot at the postseason entering the season.  I would agree with that, which probably means they will win the division.  However, they seem to be the only AL team in the middle of a rebuild.  Everyone else is prepping for a pennant run this season.  This season has the potential to once again be rough on the east side of the Bay, however Billy Beane never lets A's be down for too long.

Fearless Prediction

Half of the A's Opening Day lineup will be traded before the end of the season.

For a rebuilding team, they sure have a lot of veterans on their roster.  Look for guys like Sonny Gray, Chris Coghlan, Billy Butler, Jed Lowrie, Danny Valencia, Coco Crisp, and maybe even Josh Reddick traded before the end of the season to build up their farm system.  By season's end, all of these players will be most valuable to the A's as ways to improve their future.

2015 Pre-Season Profile: Oakland Athletics

What happens when Billy-Ball goes all in for a World Series run last year?  The team looks like this the next year...  That's not a good thing...

Last Season

88-74, 2nd in AL West, WILD CARD, Lost to Royals in Wild Card Game

For the first half of the season, the A's looked like an unstoppable force destined for the World Series.  Then, the front office got in the way, going on an unnecessary spending spree and disrupting the chemistry of the ball club.  After trading for players like Jon Lester, Jeff Samardzija, Jason Hammel, Adam Dunn, Jonny Gomes, and Geovany Soto, the team went into a tail spin.  They went from the best record in baseball to barely beating out the Mariners for the last Wild Card spot on the last day and losing to the eventual AL Champs in the Wild Card game.  Was this decline inevitable no matter what moves they made?  Maybe, but I do know it didn't start until trades started happening.

2015 Additions / Subtractions

The better question for this spot might be who didn't they lose this offseason.  It was obvious that the A's went all in last year as they continued to uncharacteristically make Blockbuster trade after Blockbuster trade.  What we didn't know then is they that would be their only shot with that group of players.  As what happens with a small market team governed by Moneyball, they build a few years for a big run, then hit the reset button.  This year was the reset button.  Every player they traded for last year is gone, along with Jed Lowrie, Alberto Callaspo, and All Stars Brandon Moss, Derek Norris, and Josh Donaldson.  Donaldson is probably the toughest loss for them.  This former catcher switched positions to third base to find the field and became one of the best players at his position in the league.  He and Moss are the perfect examples that Moneyball works.  The list of additions is much less impressive than the list of subtractions.  Ike Davis, Billy Butler, and Brett Lawrie are solid players, but nowhere near the level of what they lost.  The biggest addition is super-utility man Ben Zobrist, who can literally play any position on the field and hit at an All Star level.  Too bad he can't play every position at once...

Most Important Hitter

Brett Lawrie

When the A's traded Donaldson to the Blue Jays, one of the primary pieces they received in return was Brett Lawrie.  Lawrie had never fully realized his potential in Toronto, but Oakland is now counting on him being the player his skill set says he should be.  With so many pieces leaving town, Lawrie is one player that has the upside to lessen the blow some.

Most Important Pitcher

Jarrod Parker

Before Sonny Gray broke onto the scene in 2014 as the latest guy to come out of nowhere to be the ace of the A's, Jarrod Parker had done the same thing in 2013.  Tommy John surgery in last spring derailed his 2014 season, and he was practically forgotten about during the A's roller coaster run last year.  Now he is eyeing a June return to the club and could be a pivotal piece to the A's having a successful season.  If he can come back and show the ability that put him at the top of the rotation in 2013, then the A's may have a rotation that can overcome the many struggles they will have at the plate.

Player to Watch

Marcus Semien

Of the many prospects the A's received in the litany of trades they made this offseason, Marcus Semien seems most ready for a breakout year.  He also will get the best opportunity as he is penciled in as the Opening Day starter at shortstop.  Coming over from the White Sox in Samardzija Trade 2.0, he is not at the level of Addison Russell, the shortstop prospect the A's gave up to the Cubs to get Samardzija initially.  However, the A's need a player like Semien to develop into a superstar, and a place like Oakland tends to elevate players above their potential ... so they can be traded for more prospects in five years.

Prediction

5th in AL West

Billy Beane has pulled off some miracle seasons in the past, but there is are just too many unknowns in 2015.  They are only returning three starters from last year, and they downgraded at every position with the exception of Zobrist.  Their closer is most likely starting the season on the DL, and although they have some quality young arms in their rotation, it is not the sure thing it has been in the past.  I have predicted bad years for the A's recently and have been wrong before.  I could be wrong this time too, but I just don't see a winner this year from this roster.  With that said, they will probably win the division.  Who knows...