2020 Pre-Season Profile: San Francisco Giants

#27

The San Francisco Giants sent Bruce Bochy off to retirement in 2019 with an unexpected run at a possible playoff spot.  What can be expected of the Giants now that their legendary leader has moved on?

2019 Predictions

#24 - 5th in NL West

MIH: Steven Duggar

MIP: Dereck Rodriguez

PTW: Tyler Beede

FP: Madison Bumgarner will be traded to the Brewers mid-season.

2019 Results

#19 - 77-85, 3rd in NL West

I had a lot of things wrong in my predictions for the Giants last season.  After bringing in new GM Farhan Zaidi, the general expectation was that a rebuild would start immediately.  Two things changed that plan: Bruce Bochy announcing 2019 would be his last season, and the team actually playing pretty good for most of the year.  The fact that the team played well is kind of head scratching all things considered.  I predicted their Most Important Hitter last year would be Steven Duggar, who only played 73 games and is starting 2020 in the minors.  I said their Most Important Pitcher was Dereck Rodriguez, who had a terrible season and is fighting to stay in the rotation starting 2020.  Tyler Beede got a decent amount of playing time in 2019 but didn't break out, and now he is out for all of 2020 with Tommy John surgery.  Everything I thought needed to happen for the Giants to have some success last year didn't happen, and they had more success than anyone expected.  Even ace Madison Bumgarner, who everyone thought was going to be traded mid-season, ended up riding out the rest of 2019 with the Giants before hitting the free agent market simply because the Giants were trying to contend.  Never underestimate the magic of Bruce Bochy.

Additions / Subtractions

It is rare that the change of manager can so greatly alter a franchise, but Bochy had been around for so long and had come to define who the Giants were that his retirement is the biggest subtraction of the offseason.  Replacing him is the young, energetic, analytics-driven (everything Bochy isn't) Gabe Kapler, fresh off his failed managerial gig with the Phillies.  The other big subtraction was the inevitable departure of Madison Bumgarner, who signed with division rival Arizona.  The additions this offseason resemble a team starting a rebuild, as the Giants brought in a bunch of veterans looking to rebound and possibly be traded mid-season.  So enter starting pitchers like Kevin Gausman, Drew Smyly, and Tyson Ross as well as Giants legend Hunter Pence returning to the Bay Area.  Possibly the most interesting addition for the team is the return of Johnny Cueto, who was out for almost all of 2019 with Tommy John.

Most Important Hitter

Mike Yastrzemski

One of the best stories of 2019 on any team was the story of Mike Yastrzemski.  With a name like that, it is hard to hide the family relation.  The grandson of Red Sox legend Carl Yastrzemski, Mike made his debut in 2019 which everyone paid attention to, mainly because of the family connection.  Then, something unexpected happened; he was really good.  Mike finished the season with a .272 average, 21 homers, 55 RBI, .518 slugging, and a 123 OPS+.  His 2.8 WAR was third on the Giants behind only Jeff Samardzija and MadBum, making him the best position player on the team, all this in only 107 games.  Having played himself into the Giants long term plans, little Yaz is now entering 2020 as the everyday centerfielder.  However, the question is can he repeat his production?  If his sophomore season is anything like his rookie year, the Giants just found yet another gem to be a foundational piece moving forward.

Most Important Pitcher

Jeff Samardzija

Let's not kid ourselves, this is a rebuilding year for the Giants.  With Bochy gone, no one expects to see the miraculous run of 2019 again.  With that said, a lot of veterans are going to be playing for what a possible trade mid-season.  The most likely candidate for that is Jeff Samardzija.  Samardzija is entering the final year of his 5 year, $90 million deal he signed with the Giants, and outside of one injury-plagued year, he has really pitched well for them.  Last season, he was their best player in terms of WAR.  Now he is entering his age 35 season and a walk year.  A solid 2020 campaign might bring about one more decent payday for Samardzija as well as a possible mid-season trade to a contender.  I think he gets traded regardless, however how much he brings back is dependent on how well he performs.

Prospect to Watch

Joey Bart

As the Giants have taken a downward turn the last few seasons, one positive has been the replenishing of a depleted farm system.  The Giants had now prospects in the top 100 just a few short years ago.  Now they have five prospects ranking among the league's best, and the top of the list should make a splash in 2020.  Joey Bart is a former #2 overall pick in the 2018 draft and now the 14th best prospect in all of baseball.  This catcher is really the whole package.  He can hit, has power, and has the potential to be a Gold Glove caliber defender behind the plate.  The face of the Giants franchise for the last decade has been catcher Buster Posey, however look for him to move to another position so Joey Bart can become the new face of the Giants for the next decade.

2020 Prediction

5th in NL West

Last season, Farhan Zaidi was brought in to rebuild the Giants from the ground up using the new age model that teams like the Rays and Dodgers have mastered.  That plan was stalled for a year after Bruce Bochy had one last heroic run in him.  Now that he is retired, look for the full rebuild to take shape.  The Giants are not competing this year, but they are headed in the right direction.  I was not a fan of Gabe Kapler in Philly, but I think he fits well in San Fran.  He is like the Jason Kidd of MLB.  You could see him being a good coach/manager, but you don't start him off with a star-studded, win now roster.  You start him with a young rebuilding roster.  The Phillies were Kapler's Brooklyn Nets, and the Giants are Kapler's Milwaukee Bucks.  He can learn and grow along with his roster.  I like what they are doing, but it won't lead to success in 2020.

Fearless Prediction

Half of the Giants' Opening Day lineup will not be on the roster by the end of the season.

One of the biggest problems with a rebuild is the veterans that are still under contract that block the young prospects from getting experience.  The Giants are filled with that problem, especially on the infield.  Players like Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford, Evan Longoria, and even Buster Posey are entering their mid-30's likely not to be on the roster when the Giants are ready to compete again.  In a true rebuild, players like these get traded when they might have maximum value.  That could very well be mid-season for most of these players, especially Belt, Crawford, Longoria, and others like Hunter Pence and maybe even Johnny Cueto.  Something needs to happen to make room for both Joey Bart and Buster Posey in the lineup.  I see a lot of roster movement and turnover in 2020 for the Giants.

2017 Pre-Season Profile: San Francisco Giants

#11

The streak was broken!  For the first time since 2008, the Giants did not emerge as champions on an even numbered year.  Another streak that has lasted just as long as missing the playoffs on odd numbered years.  Will that continue in 2017?

My 2016 Predictions

1st in NL West, win World Series

The San Francisco Giants come home with MVP, Cy Young, and World Series trophies.

2016 Results

87-75, 2nd in NL West, WILD CARD, lost in NLDS

Last year, I was sticking with the streak until it proved me wrong.  Well, it proved me wrong in 2016.  The Giants even made the playoffs!  They had shown over the last decade that they were unstoppable as long as they make the postseason.  Madison Bumgarner did prove he is more than just a postseason pitcher as he had a dominant season, finishing 4th in the Cy Young voting.  Buster Posey was solid but not quite dominant in his season.  They were really good, but they ran into history when they lost to the Cubs.

Additions / Subtractions

The Giants had a huge offseason in 2016, signing both Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija to bolster the rotation.  Picking up Matt Moore and Eduardo Nunez in mid-season trades are huge bonuses moving into 2017.  However, if there has been one weakness for the Giants during this amazing run they have had, it has been their bullpen.  In 2010, 2012, and 2014, three different pitchers closed out the final game, including MadBum in 2014 because Bruce Bochy didn't trust anyone in the bullpen.  They tried to address this this offseason by signing closer Mark Melancon.  For the first time in awhile, the ninth inning will be taken care of in 2017.

Most Important Hitter

Joe Panik

The core of the Giants have been together for awhile.  They are starting to age.  One of the younger kids in their lineup is second baseman Joe Panik.  Panik burst on the scene in 2014 as he became one of the stars of their postseason run.  He followed that up with a strong 2015, making his first All Star Team.  2016 was a massive disappointment as his bat fell asleep for the entire season.  With the age of the Giants' roster, guys like Panik need to step up and show they can become stars for this team.

Most Important Pitcher

Jeff Samardzija

The Giants were expecting great things from their two big signings last year.  Johnny Cueto didn't disappoint as he competed with Madisno Bumgarner for best pitcher on the team.  Although Jeff Samardzija wasn't bad, he also was much less than dominant.  Samardzija has had a few down seasons recently since he left the Cubs.  The Giants were hoping he would emerge as the third ace on the staff, making them near unbeatable.  Now, he is entering the 2017 season not even as their third starter as Matt Moore has passed him up.  Samardzija needs to start to pitch like he is being paid; as an elite superstar in the game.

Player to Watch

Tyler Beede

Outside of the bullpen, another weakness of the Giants' organization over this current run has been their farm system.  They have maintained their aging core, trading prospects to help win now.  This has led to a system that is in the bottom third of the league, sporting just two prospects in baseball's Top 100.  Their top prospect might be a difference maker down the stretch in 2017.  Tyler Beede is a 23 year old starting pitcher that has been working his way up through the Giants' system since he was drafted in 2014.  Look for him to either be a contributor near the end of the season or be a key piece in another trade to help the Giants win now.

2017 Prediction

3rd in NL West

Ten teams make the playoffs.  I have the Giants 11th.  They will be the best team to not make October this season.  They have a strong roster top to bottom as they do every year, however it is hard for a team like this to hold up throughout the full season.  Their age is going to catch up with them, leading to potential injuries.  Injuries will challenge depth, which the Giants lack.  Look for a bounceback in 2018, but the window for this current Giants group is closing quickly.

Fearless Prediction

Buster Posey and Hunter Pence will miss a combined total of 162+ games.

When the Giants struggle, it is because of injuries to key bats in their order.  The heart and soul of their lineup are Buster Posey and Hunter Pence.  When Posey stays healthy, the Giants succeed.  To help with this, Posey is playing more and more first base to avoid the grind of catching every day.  Hunter Pence has been marred by injuries the last two seasons.  Before that, he played every day.  His body appears to be breaking down though.  Injuries to these two will slow this team down enough to keep them away from where they want to be.

2016 Pre-Season Profile: San Francisco Giants

The San Francisco Giants followed up their World Series win in 2014 by not making the playoffs in 2015.  They have won the World Series the last three even numbered years.  Can they do it again in 2016?

Last Season

My 2015 Prediction: 3rd in NL West

2015 Result: 84-78, 2nd in NL West

The Giants had what could be considered a disappointing season in 2015, even though they finished over .500.  This is such a bizarre pattern they have established these last five seasons.  In 2010, they win the World Series.  In 2011, they don't make the playoffs.  In 2012, they win the World Series.  In 2013, they don't make the playoffs.  In 2014, they win the World Series.  In 2015, they don't make the playoffs.  I would love to see what would happen if they actually made the playoffs in an odd numbered year.

2016 Additions / Subtractions

The Giants went against what they normally do and had a fairly active offseason.  They added Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija to an already strong rotation, while adding Denard Span to the outfield.  They had few notable departures, most notable in name rather than impact to the club.  In bringing in Cueto and Samardzija, they let longtime giants Ryan Vogelsong and Tim Lincecum walk, while Tim Hudson retired.

Most Important Hitter

Hunter Pence

Part of what led to the Giants' struggles in 2015 was the injury to Hunter Pence that limited him to just 52 games.  Pence is a contributor on the field, but also a great chemistry guy.  He needs to be on the field for the Giants to have the kind of season they hope for.

Most Important Pitcher

Johnny Cueto

Johnny Cueto has been one of the best pitchers in baseball the last five seasons, but he had a terrible (by his standards) season in 2015.  This offseason he signed a big contract paying him as if last year didn't happen.  That is exactly what the Giants need him to be.  Bumgarner, Cueto, and Samardzija can be one of the best top three in any rotation in the league, but Cueto and Samardzija both have to be better than last year.

Player to Watch

Josh Osich

The Giants have a fairly weak farm system.  However, when you have such a veteran lineup, there is little need for many rookies to have huge impacts.  With that said, here is one that will be on the Opening Day roster.  Josh Osich just barely stayed under the limit for service time to still be considered a rookie in 2016.  Look for him to have an impact as a left-handed specialist out of the Giants' bullpen this season.

2016 Prediction

1st in NL West, win World Series

Why not!  This pattern is ridiculous.  However, this prediction is less about that and more about the fact that the Giants might have their best team since this crazy run started.  Pitching has always been a strength of this team, but this is the best it has been since Lincecum was winning Cy Youngs.  Buster Posey is also the best catcher in baseball.  Complementary pieces like Brandon Belt, Joe Panik, Brandon Crawford, and Matt Duffy fill out a very deep lineup with few weaknesses.  Also, don't forget, they have what might be the greatest postseason performer of all time.  If they make the playoffs, be prepared to be MadBum'ed once again.  It seems inevitable.

Fearless Prediction

The San Francisco Giants come home with MVP, Cy Young, and World Series trophies.

This is a pretty tall order, but not out of the question.  Buster Posey is a contender for MVP every season, and Madison Bumgarner might actually show some of his freak dominance in the regular season after having a full offseason of rest.  This has only happened five times, and not since 1988.  It would be a crazy feat, but not something that should surprise anyone.

2015 Pre-Season Profile: Oakland Athletics

What happens when Billy-Ball goes all in for a World Series run last year?  The team looks like this the next year...  That's not a good thing...

Last Season

88-74, 2nd in AL West, WILD CARD, Lost to Royals in Wild Card Game

For the first half of the season, the A's looked like an unstoppable force destined for the World Series.  Then, the front office got in the way, going on an unnecessary spending spree and disrupting the chemistry of the ball club.  After trading for players like Jon Lester, Jeff Samardzija, Jason Hammel, Adam Dunn, Jonny Gomes, and Geovany Soto, the team went into a tail spin.  They went from the best record in baseball to barely beating out the Mariners for the last Wild Card spot on the last day and losing to the eventual AL Champs in the Wild Card game.  Was this decline inevitable no matter what moves they made?  Maybe, but I do know it didn't start until trades started happening.

2015 Additions / Subtractions

The better question for this spot might be who didn't they lose this offseason.  It was obvious that the A's went all in last year as they continued to uncharacteristically make Blockbuster trade after Blockbuster trade.  What we didn't know then is they that would be their only shot with that group of players.  As what happens with a small market team governed by Moneyball, they build a few years for a big run, then hit the reset button.  This year was the reset button.  Every player they traded for last year is gone, along with Jed Lowrie, Alberto Callaspo, and All Stars Brandon Moss, Derek Norris, and Josh Donaldson.  Donaldson is probably the toughest loss for them.  This former catcher switched positions to third base to find the field and became one of the best players at his position in the league.  He and Moss are the perfect examples that Moneyball works.  The list of additions is much less impressive than the list of subtractions.  Ike Davis, Billy Butler, and Brett Lawrie are solid players, but nowhere near the level of what they lost.  The biggest addition is super-utility man Ben Zobrist, who can literally play any position on the field and hit at an All Star level.  Too bad he can't play every position at once...

Most Important Hitter

Brett Lawrie

When the A's traded Donaldson to the Blue Jays, one of the primary pieces they received in return was Brett Lawrie.  Lawrie had never fully realized his potential in Toronto, but Oakland is now counting on him being the player his skill set says he should be.  With so many pieces leaving town, Lawrie is one player that has the upside to lessen the blow some.

Most Important Pitcher

Jarrod Parker

Before Sonny Gray broke onto the scene in 2014 as the latest guy to come out of nowhere to be the ace of the A's, Jarrod Parker had done the same thing in 2013.  Tommy John surgery in last spring derailed his 2014 season, and he was practically forgotten about during the A's roller coaster run last year.  Now he is eyeing a June return to the club and could be a pivotal piece to the A's having a successful season.  If he can come back and show the ability that put him at the top of the rotation in 2013, then the A's may have a rotation that can overcome the many struggles they will have at the plate.

Player to Watch

Marcus Semien

Of the many prospects the A's received in the litany of trades they made this offseason, Marcus Semien seems most ready for a breakout year.  He also will get the best opportunity as he is penciled in as the Opening Day starter at shortstop.  Coming over from the White Sox in Samardzija Trade 2.0, he is not at the level of Addison Russell, the shortstop prospect the A's gave up to the Cubs to get Samardzija initially.  However, the A's need a player like Semien to develop into a superstar, and a place like Oakland tends to elevate players above their potential ... so they can be traded for more prospects in five years.

Prediction

5th in AL West

Billy Beane has pulled off some miracle seasons in the past, but there is are just too many unknowns in 2015.  They are only returning three starters from last year, and they downgraded at every position with the exception of Zobrist.  Their closer is most likely starting the season on the DL, and although they have some quality young arms in their rotation, it is not the sure thing it has been in the past.  I have predicted bad years for the A's recently and have been wrong before.  I could be wrong this time too, but I just don't see a winner this year from this roster.  With that said, they will probably win the division.  Who knows...