2023 Pre-Season Profile: Cincinnati Reds

 #28

The Cincinnati Reds have been selling off big league talent over the last few years and building up a strong farm system in the process.  Will 2023 be the year the big league roster starts to see some impact from all this young talent?

2022 Predictions

#26 - 4th in NL Central

MIH - Jonathan India

MIP - Luis Castillo

PTW - Hunter Greene

2022 Results

#27 - 62-100 - 4th in NL Central

Highest WAR (Position) - Brandon Drury

Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Luis Castillo

The Reds went from over .500 in 2021 to a 100 loss season in 2022.  They saw their ace traded mid-season (Luis Castillo), as well as their best hitter (Brandon Drury).  The offense struggled to score, but their young pitching showed some real bright spots, with phenom starters Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo having strong rookie seasons.  Also, rookie Alexis Diaz emerged as their closer of the future.  So amid a disappointing season, there was some hope.

Additions / Subtractions

As with many teams in rebuild mode, the offseason was about seeing if any of their veterans had value on the trade market while bringing in other veterans to be placeholders until the kids are ready.  Much of the Reds' work was done mid-season in shedding big league talent, but the offseason also saw the departure of Mike Moustakas, Kyle Farmer, Donovan Solano, and Mike Minor.  The new crop of veterans include starter Luke Weaver, shortstop Kevin Newman, and corner outfielder / first baseman Wil Myers.

Most Important Hitter

Nick Senzel

Not every prospect works out, and so far in his big league career, Nick Senzel is one of those prospects that just hasn't.  The former #2 overall pick is now entering his age 28 season and 5th full season in the big leagues.  So far, his rookie season (2019) was the most successful, where he posted a measly 87 OPS+ with 12 home runs.  In 2022, he had a 64 OPS+ with only 5 home runs and 25 RBI's in 110 games.  The good part about being on a rebuilding team is you are given more opportunities for playing time and development.  Senzel is once again slated to be the Reds' everyday centerfielder, but with the youth movement moving through the minors, Senzel needs to start showing some progress, or he will no longer have a job in Cincinnati.

Most Important Pitcher

Hunter Greene

No one meant more to the future success of the Reds in 2022 than Hunter Greene.  The flame-throwing phenom had a solid rookie campaign in his age 22 season, showing why everyone had been waiting for his debut since he was picked 2nd overall in the 2017 draft.  Now it's his time to take the next step and show he is ready to be the new ace of the Reds.  If Greene can solidify himself at the top of the Reds' rotation, then the Reds will be ready to contend sooner than anticipated.  It would also mean they have a true superstar on their hands too.

Prospect to Watch

Elly De La Cruz

The Reds have a strong farm system, boasting 4 players in the Top 100 Prospects.  Their system has a unique makeup though, with 7 of their top 8 prospects playing either shortstop or third base.  However, the class of the group, and the player most ready to make a splash in 2023, is Elly De La Cruz.  This 21 year old shortstop is ranked as the 10th prospect in baseball, and it's easy to see why.  At 6'5", he's a towering presence with special speed and some real pop in his bat.  In 2022, between Single-A and Double-A, De La Cruz hit 28 home runs and had 47 steals.  I don't think the Reds can keep him out of Cincinnati much longer, and he has an outside shot at making the Opening Day roster.

2023 Prediction

5th in NL Central

The Reds are definitely headed in the right direction, but they are not ready to turn that corner yet.  As some of these top prospects like Elly De La Cruz, Noelvi Marte, and Brandon Williamson join the big leagues throughout the year, the team will improve and become more and more fun to watch.  Look for next year to be a big jump year in Cincinnati, but for now, the record won't be great.

Fearless Prediction

This will be Joey Votto's last season.

It feels like it is time.  Joey Votto has been the face of the Reds almost since the moment he arrived in 2007.  He's a 6 time All Star, won a Gold Glove and an MVP.  He has a chance at being a Hall of Famer.  He's also entering his age 39 season, last year was the worst year of his career, and he's in the last year of his 10 year megadeal (which is the only reason he hasn't been traded like the rest of the team's veteran assets).  He has a team option for next year, but there's no way it gets picked up.  The production doesn't warrant a $20mil+ contract for his age 40 season.  I could see Votto opting to retire than wear another jersey besides the Reds.

2022 MLB Pre-Season Predictions: #30-21

Happy Opening Day!!!  One of my favorite things to do every year is take the month before the baseball season starts and do a preseason write-up and prediction article for each team.  Thanks to the lockout, a shortened Spring Training, and the crazy flurry of free agency signings during that shortened Spring Training, I did not have a chance to write these before the season starts.  With that said, I want to get my predictions out there in some way before the season gets going too much.  So here are teams #30-#21 in my pre-season power rankings.

#30

Oakland A's

2021 Prediction: #8, 1st in AL West, lose in ALDS

2021 Fearless Prediction: Before Opening Day 2022, Matt Chapman and Matt Olson will be traded, a new ballpark deal is done, or the A's will announce a relocation.

2021 Result: #13, 86-76, 3rd in AL West

Most Important Hitter: Sean Murphy

Most Important Pitcher: Frankie Montas

Prospect to Watch: Cristian Pache

2022 Prediction: 5th in AL West

After a lackluster end to 2021, the A's (as I predicted) traded away or let walk away almost their entire roster (including their manager).  Now the A's are starting over as they do every few years, but this one feels different.  They stripped the roster down to the studs without a next wave ready to compete.  Their most important players are the only ones left, and it's only a matter of time before they get traded too.  Are they trying to alienate the fanbase to make a move to Las Vegas easier?  Maybe.  On a side note, what is Oakland doing?  Do they just hate having sports?  They have already watched the Raiders move to Vegas, the Warriors move to San Francisco, and now the A's are on their way out since they refuse to build a new stadium to replace the worst facility in American professional sports.  Sad to see for a once proud sports city.

#29

Pittsburgh Pirates

2021 Prediction: #30, 5th in NL Central

2021 Fearless Prediction: Ke'Bryan Hayes will be an All Star and Rookie of the Year in 2021.

2021 Result: #27, 61-101, 5th in NL Central

Most Important Hitter: Bryan Reynolds

Most Important Pitcher: Mitch Keller

Prospect to Watch: Oneil Cruz

2022 Prediction: 5th in NL Central

The Pirates are a pretty lousy organization, shown by the fact that they just shelled out their biggest contract in franchise history at ... wait for it ... $70 million.  Then Ke'Bryan Hayes goes out and gets hurt in the first inning of Opening Day.  They seem to be the only team still concerned about service time manipulation by keeping Oneil Cruz in the minors to start the year because I think they are the only team that can't afford to sign a good player to a real contract.  Until they learn how to spend, they will only be good if they get lucky.

#28

Colorado Rockies

2021 Prediction: #28, 5th in NL West

2021 Fearless Prediction: Trevor Story will be traded before the Trade Deadline.

2021 Result: #21, 74-87, 4th in NL West

Most Important Hitter: Kris Bryant

Most Important Pitcher: German Marquez

Prospect to Watch: Elehuris Montero

2022 Prediction: 5th in NL West

The Rockies had an interesting offseason where they watched one of their stars leave in free agency while they brought another in.  What looked like a full blown rebuild got an uplift.  They don't have a lot of established players heading into this year though.  They should bounce back quick, but this year might be rough.

#27

Arizona Diamondbacks

2021 Prediction: #27, 4th in NL West

2021 Fearless Prediction: Madison Bumgarner will not be on the Diamondbacks roster at the start of 2022.

2021 Result: #29, 52-110, 5th in NL West

Most Important Hitter: Pavin Smith

Most Important Pitcher: Zac Gallen

Prospect to Watch: Alek Thomas

2022 Prediction: 4th in NL West

It's easy for the top of the NL West to rack up as many wins as they do when they have two door mats like the Rockies and Diamondbacks to deal with as many times as they do.  The Diamondbacks are trying, but they are so far behind the rest of the division (Rockies excluded) that it will take awhile for them to be relevant again.

#26

Cincinnati Reds

2021 Prediction: #19, 3rd in NL Central

2021 Fearless Prediction: Over half of the Reds' Opening Day lineup will no longer be on the roster Opening Day 2022.

2021 Result: #14, 83-79, 3rd in NL Central

Most Important Hitter: Jonathan India

Most Important Pitcher: Luis Castillo

Prospect to Watch: Hunter Greene

2022 Prediction: 4th in NL Central

My fearless prediction came true as the Reds unloaded a ton of their strong core and hit the full reset button.  They have a lot of promise with guys like reigning ROY Jonathan India and phenom Hunter Greene, but their step back will take a few years to bounce back from.

#25

Baltimore Orioles

2021 Prediction: #25, 4th in AL East

2021 Fearless Prediction: Trey Mancini will win Comeback Player of the Year.

2021 Result: #30, 52-110, 5th in AL East

Most Important Hitter: Cedric Mullins

Most Important Pitcher: John Means

Prospect to Watch: Adley Rutschman

2022 Prediction: 5th in AL East

It feels like the Orioles are starting to turn the corner.  The problem is they are in a division with 4 other teams that are World Series contenders.  They won't compete this year, but they will be interesting.

#24

Washington Nationals

2021 Prediction: #12, 3rd in NL East

2021 Fearless Prediction: Max Scherzer and Ryan Zimmerman will play their last games in a Nationals uniform in 2021.

2021 Result: #26, 65-97, 5th in NL East

Most Important Hitter: Josh Bell

Most Important Pitcher: Josiah Gray

Prospect to Watch: Cade Cavalli

2022 Prediction: 5th in NL East

It was time for the Nationals to take their step back and start to rebuild, but what a run they had!  They have another couple steps to fall back all the way before they start building back up, but when they do, they should still have possibly the best hitter of his generation in Juan Soto.

#23

Miami Marlins

2021 Prediction: #20, 5th in NL East

2021 Fearless Prediction: 2021 will be the last time the Miami Marlins finish in the cellar of the NL East for the next decade.

2021 Result: #25, 67-95, 4th in NL East

Most Important Hitter: Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Most Important Pitcher: Jesus Luzardo

Prospect to Watch: Max Meyer

2022 Prediction: 4th in NL East

The Marlins fell back down to earth in 2021 after a magical 60 games in 2020.  Now they are back on schedule with a lot of fun young talent.  It will be tough to compete with the top of the division, but they will cause headaches for the top teams throughout the season.

#22

Cleveland Guardians

2021 Prediction: #17, 3rd in AL Central

2021 Fearless Prediction: Shane Bieber will win a second straight Cy Young Award.

2021 Result: #16, 80-82, 2nd in AL Central

Most Important Hitter: Jose Ramirez

Most Important Pitcher: Shane Bieber

Prospect to Watch: Logan Allen

2022 Prediction: 5th in AL Central

The Guardians rely on one or two players more than any other team in the league.  If Jose Ramirez or Shane Bieber get hurt, they really don't have much of anything.  That's why they finally committed and paid Ramirez.  Scoring runs will be tough this year, but they can still pitch.  Bieber is the best and the leader, but not all they have.  My biggest issue with the Guardians this year ... can we stop this trend of rebranding a franchise but not changing a thing besides the name of the jersey?  The Guardians, the Commanders ... new name, exact same jersey.  It's going to take forever for people to get the name right because they look just like they did before.  Start over!

#21

Kansas City Royals

2021 Prediction: #24, 5th in AL Central

2021 Fearless Prediction: The Royals will sell at least two starting pitchers before the Trade Deadline.

2021 Result: #22, 74-88, 4th in AL Central

Most Important Hitter: Salvador Perez

Most Important Pitcher: Zack Greinke

Prospect to Watch: Bobby Witt Jr.

2022 Prediction: 4th in AL Central

This season for the Royals is all about veterans imparting wisdom on the young up and coming starts.  That's why they bring back Zack Greinke.  This season in KC is all about Bobby Witt Jr. though.  How quickly he breaks out will determine how successful their season is.

2021 Pre-Season Profile: Cincinnati Reds

 #19

The Cincinnati Reds went for it in 2020, but ended up losing in the first round of the playoffs.  Will 2021 be another step towards contention, or will they be taking a step back?

2020 Predictions

#7 - 1st in NL Central, lose in NLDS

MIH - Eugenio Suarez

MIP - Raisel Iglesias

PTW - Tony Santillan

2020 Results

#13 - 31-29, 2nd NL Central, lost in Wild Card Round

The Reds looked like they had the roster in 2020 to make a deep run.  Their lineup had some pop, and their rotation was elite, led by Cy Young winner Trevor Bauer.  Thanks to the expanded playoffs, they found themselves in the tournament, but didn't score a run in their Wild Card sweep by the Braves.

Additions / Subtractions

After one year of going for it, the Reds seemed to partially give up on their run before it ever started.  First, Trevor Bauer left in free agency (and the Reds never even attempted to bring him back).  Then they traded closer Raisel Iglesias to the Angels (they signed Sean Doolittle to fill the role).  Shortstop Freddy Galvis signed in Baltimore in free agency (and wasn't replaced by another veteran).  The offseason was also mired in rumors of whether aces Luis Castillo and Sonny Gray would also be traded.  For now, they are still on the roster showing the Reds weren't quite willing to sell the whole farm.

Most Important Hitter

Nick Senzel

One of the top Reds prospects from a couple years ago was Nick Senzel.  Now he is the starting centerfielder, but he has yet to fulfill any of the promise of his prospect status.  Right now, Senzel has a career .245 average and an 83 OPS+ in two seasons.  Hardly the production you expect out of a top prospect.  He needs to take a step or two forward to make this lineup truly work.

Most Important Pitcher

Luis Castillo

Luis Castillo is on his way to being one of the elite pitchers in the league.  As of right now, he is still a Red and the most impactful pitcher on their staff.  With Trevor Bauer's departure, the spotlight will now be on him to lead the staff.  This could be a breakout season for Castillo.  The question is if that production will be putting the Reds in contention or if he will be traded to help someone else.

Prospect to Watch

Jose Garcia

The Reds have four prospects in baseball's Top 100.  Jose Garcia is not one of them, but he has a golden opportunity that could lead to some great success for the 22 year old prospect.  The Reds lost their shortstop in free agency and never replaced him.  That forced them to find an internal solution, and Jose Garcia appears to be that solution to start the season.  Ranked the 6th best prospect in the Reds system, this Cuban defector shows a lot of promise to be an everyday shortstop in the league for quite some time.

2021 Prediction

3rd in NL Central

Like I said when I previewed the Cubs, the NL Central was wide open in 2020 and is wide open this season too even though it looks like a couple teams are heading in the wrong direction.  The Reds had one of the more curious offseasons.  It's like they wanted to do a full reset but couldn't find the right price for some of their more valuable assets.  So I guess they are forced to compete this year.  I see them having a little less turmoil and a little more depth than the Cubs which puts them in 3rd in the division.

Fearless Prediction

Over half of the Reds' Opening Day lineup will no longer be on the roster Opening Day 2022.

Like I said, the Reds tried to reset this offseason and couldn't.  Look for them to try and start unloading talent, maybe not mid-season but definitely next offseason.  Either that, or they reload since they still have a decent core.  I really don't understand what they are trying to do.

2020 MLB Pre-Season Power Rankings

We are FINALLY about to get some baseball!!!  After four months of delay due to the pandemic and a labor dispute, we are getting a crazy season of 60 games, a little over one-third of a normal season.  Every game will count in a way it never has before.  Back in March, I started my yearly pre-season profiles of each team.  Once the season was postponed, I postponed my profiles.  Now that the season is about to start, here is a quick overview of my pre-season rankings, thoughts, and predictions.  A few adjustments have been made since March, but the profiles I already did are locked in.  They are definitely the lower tier of the league this season.

#30

Baltimore Orioles

#29

Detroit Tigers

#28

Pittsburgh Pirates

#27

San Francisco Giants

#26

Seattle Mariners

#25

Kansas City Royals

#24

Colorado Rockies

#23

Texas Rangers

#22

Miami Marlins

#21

Boston Red Sox

Most Important Hitter: Xander Bogaerts

Most Important Pitcher: Nathan Eovaldi

Prospect to Watch: Tanner Houck

2020 Prediction: 4th in AL East

Loss of manager, Mookie, and Sale on the shelf will lead to a disappointing result in Fenway.

#20

Toronto Blue Jays

Most Important Hitter: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Most Important Pitcher: Hyun Jin Ryu

Prospect to Watch: Nate Pearson

2020 Prediction: 3rd in AL East

The Blue Jays are currently homeless, but they have a young core that is almost ready to take another step forward.  Could be a surprise contender.

#19

San Diego Padres

Most Important Hitter: Manny Machado

Most Important Pitcher: Garrett Richards

Prospect to Watch: MacKenzie Gore

2020 Prediction: 3rd in NL West

Another possible surprise contender, the Padres' youth movement needs their veteran leaders to lead the way for them to take the leap in 2020.

#18

Chicago Cubs

Most Important Hitter: Willson Contreras

Most Important Pitcher: Yu Darvish

Prospect to Watch: Nico Hoerner

2020 Prediction: 4th in NL Central

The toughest division in baseball is going to make sure the Cubs and their window of contention with this core might be over.

#17

Cleveland Indians

Most Important Hitter: Francisco Lindor

Most Important Pitcher: Carlos Carrasco

Prospect to Watch: Logan Allen

2020 Prediction: 3rd in AL Central

The 2020 season will be less about if the Indians can compete and more about how it might be the last we see of Francisco Lindor in a Cleveland uniform.

#16

Washington Nationals

Most Important Hitter: Juan Soto

Most Important Pitcher: Patrick Corbin

Prospect to Watch: Carter Kieboom

2020 Prediction: 4th in NL East

The defending champs have one of the best rotations in baseball and could do damage in the playoffs again because of it.  I just don't see the lineup getting them there.

#15

Chicago White Sox

Most Important Hitter: Eloy Jimenez

Most Important Pitcher: Lucas Giolito

Prospect to Watch: Luis Robert

2020 Prediction: 2nd in AL Central

A lot of people are picking the ChiSox to make the playoffs.  They could easily slip into a Wild Card spot, but I think they are still a year or two away.

#14

New York Mets

Most Important Hitter: Robinson Cano

Most Important Pitcher: Edwin Diaz

Prospect to Watch: Kevin Smith

2020 Prediction: 3rd in NL East

This is a roster that could top the division or bottom out.  It all depends if their veterans can stay healthy.

#13

Los Angeles Angels

Most Important Hitter: Anthony Rendon

Most Important Pitcher: Shohei Ohtani

Prospect to Watch: Jo Adell

2020 Prediction: 3rd in AL West

The Angels landed one of the big fish in the offseason, but their pitching is too mediocre to truly get over the top yet.

#12

Milwaukee Brewers

Most Important Hitter: Keston Hiura

Most Important Pitcher: Brandon Woodruff

Prospect to Watch: Drew Rasmussen

2020 Prediction: 3rd in NL Central

The Brewers have an elite lineup build for the new NL DH.  Their pitching is as average as their playoff runs, but their division is getting deeper and tougher.

#11

St. Louis Cardinals

Most Important Hitter: Paul Goldschmidt

Most Important Pitcher: Miles Mikolas

Prospect to Watch: Dylan Carlson

2020 Prediction: 2nd in NL Central

I had the Cards in the playoffs in March, but pulled them out now.  They are always right there, but they are built for the marathon, not the sprint.

#10

Atlanta Braves

Most Important Hitter: Marcell Ozuna

Most Important Pitcher: Cole Hamels

Prospect to Watch: Kyle Wright

2020 Prediction: 2nd in NL East, WILD CARD, lose in Wild Card Game

The Braves have one of the best young cores in baseball.  They will make the playoffs, but they are just a little too young to make a deep run ... yet.

#9

Oakland A's

Most Important Hitter: Marcus Semien

Most Important Pitcher: Liam Hendriks

Prospect to Watch: Jesus Luzardo

2020 Prediction: 2nd in AL West, WILD CARD, lose in Wild Card Game

The A's always seem to be good enough to reach the playoffs every year, but not do anything once they get there.  The shortened season also makes them vulnerable to miss the playoffs in 2020.

#8

Arizona Diamondbacks

Most Important Hitter: Starling Marte

Most Important Pitcher: Robbie Ray

Prospect to Watch: J.B. Bukauskas

2020 Prediction: 2nd in NL West, WILD CARD, lose in NLDS

As weird as it would be to see MadBum in the postseason not in a Giants uniform, I think the D-Backs have the roster to get there.

#7

Cincinnati Reds

Most Important Hitter: Eugenio Suarez

Most Important Pitcher: Raisel Iglesias

Prospect to Watch: Tony Santillan

2020 Prediction: 1st in NL Central, lose in NLDS

If this was a full season, I don't see the Reds making the postseason.  However, in a 60 game season, I see the Reds getting hot and the season ending before they fall back to the rest of the pack.  One of the best rotations in the league.

#6

Houston Astros

Most Important Hitter: Carlos Correa

Most Important Pitcher: Lance McCullers Jr.

Prospect to Watch: Forrest Whitley

2020 Prediction: 1st in AL West, lose in ALDS

The Astros might benefit most from having no fans ... banging on trash cans.  They are too talented not to win the division, but the loss of Gerrit Cole will make a deep run tough.

#5

New York Yankees

Most Important Hitter: Giancarlo Stanton

Most Important Pitcher: James Paxton

Prospect to Watch: Clarke Schmidt

2020 Prediction: 2nd in AL East, WILD CARD, lose in ALDS

The Yankees might have the most talented roster in the AL, but I don't think they have the best team.  I see the World Series favorite falling short.

#4

Philadelphia Phillies

Most Important Hitter: Andrew McCutchen

Most Important Pitcher: Zack Wheeler

Prospect to Watch: Alec Bohm

2020 Prediction: 1st in NL East, lose in NLCS

The Phillies have all the makings of a deep run in the postseason.  They have a killer lineup and great pitching.  Too bad there is a superteam they will be running into.

#3

Minnesota Twins

Most Important Hitter: Byron Buxton

Most Important Pitcher: Kenta Maeda

Prospect to Watch: Alex Kirilloff

2020 Prediction: 1st in AL Central, lose in ALCS

If only the Twins could have put some more elite talent in their pitching staff...  They have possibly the best lineup in the league which will carry them this far.

#2

Tampa Bay Rays

Most Important Hitter: Austin Meadows

Most Important Pitcher: Blake Snell

Prospect to Watch: Brendan McKay

2020 Prediction: 1st in AL East, lose in World Series

The Rays have the best bullpen, one of the best rotations (which is funny considering they use the opener so often), and an efficient lineup.  They are set up to dominate, especially in this sprint season.

#1

Los Angeles Dodgers

Most Important Hitter: Corey Seager

Most Important Pitcher: Julio Urias

Prospect to Watch: Dustin May

2020 Prediction: 1st in NL West, win World Series

I think this is the year.  They have the best roster that only got better with Mookie.  Their pitching is strong and deep.  I hate to go with the favorite, but they are just that good.