2023 Pre-Season Profile: Cincinnati Reds

 #28

The Cincinnati Reds have been selling off big league talent over the last few years and building up a strong farm system in the process.  Will 2023 be the year the big league roster starts to see some impact from all this young talent?

2022 Predictions

#26 - 4th in NL Central

MIH - Jonathan India

MIP - Luis Castillo

PTW - Hunter Greene

2022 Results

#27 - 62-100 - 4th in NL Central

Highest WAR (Position) - Brandon Drury

Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Luis Castillo

The Reds went from over .500 in 2021 to a 100 loss season in 2022.  They saw their ace traded mid-season (Luis Castillo), as well as their best hitter (Brandon Drury).  The offense struggled to score, but their young pitching showed some real bright spots, with phenom starters Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo having strong rookie seasons.  Also, rookie Alexis Diaz emerged as their closer of the future.  So amid a disappointing season, there was some hope.

Additions / Subtractions

As with many teams in rebuild mode, the offseason was about seeing if any of their veterans had value on the trade market while bringing in other veterans to be placeholders until the kids are ready.  Much of the Reds' work was done mid-season in shedding big league talent, but the offseason also saw the departure of Mike Moustakas, Kyle Farmer, Donovan Solano, and Mike Minor.  The new crop of veterans include starter Luke Weaver, shortstop Kevin Newman, and corner outfielder / first baseman Wil Myers.

Most Important Hitter

Nick Senzel

Not every prospect works out, and so far in his big league career, Nick Senzel is one of those prospects that just hasn't.  The former #2 overall pick is now entering his age 28 season and 5th full season in the big leagues.  So far, his rookie season (2019) was the most successful, where he posted a measly 87 OPS+ with 12 home runs.  In 2022, he had a 64 OPS+ with only 5 home runs and 25 RBI's in 110 games.  The good part about being on a rebuilding team is you are given more opportunities for playing time and development.  Senzel is once again slated to be the Reds' everyday centerfielder, but with the youth movement moving through the minors, Senzel needs to start showing some progress, or he will no longer have a job in Cincinnati.

Most Important Pitcher

Hunter Greene

No one meant more to the future success of the Reds in 2022 than Hunter Greene.  The flame-throwing phenom had a solid rookie campaign in his age 22 season, showing why everyone had been waiting for his debut since he was picked 2nd overall in the 2017 draft.  Now it's his time to take the next step and show he is ready to be the new ace of the Reds.  If Greene can solidify himself at the top of the Reds' rotation, then the Reds will be ready to contend sooner than anticipated.  It would also mean they have a true superstar on their hands too.

Prospect to Watch

Elly De La Cruz

The Reds have a strong farm system, boasting 4 players in the Top 100 Prospects.  Their system has a unique makeup though, with 7 of their top 8 prospects playing either shortstop or third base.  However, the class of the group, and the player most ready to make a splash in 2023, is Elly De La Cruz.  This 21 year old shortstop is ranked as the 10th prospect in baseball, and it's easy to see why.  At 6'5", he's a towering presence with special speed and some real pop in his bat.  In 2022, between Single-A and Double-A, De La Cruz hit 28 home runs and had 47 steals.  I don't think the Reds can keep him out of Cincinnati much longer, and he has an outside shot at making the Opening Day roster.

2023 Prediction

5th in NL Central

The Reds are definitely headed in the right direction, but they are not ready to turn that corner yet.  As some of these top prospects like Elly De La Cruz, Noelvi Marte, and Brandon Williamson join the big leagues throughout the year, the team will improve and become more and more fun to watch.  Look for next year to be a big jump year in Cincinnati, but for now, the record won't be great.

Fearless Prediction

This will be Joey Votto's last season.

It feels like it is time.  Joey Votto has been the face of the Reds almost since the moment he arrived in 2007.  He's a 6 time All Star, won a Gold Glove and an MVP.  He has a chance at being a Hall of Famer.  He's also entering his age 39 season, last year was the worst year of his career, and he's in the last year of his 10 year megadeal (which is the only reason he hasn't been traded like the rest of the team's veteran assets).  He has a team option for next year, but there's no way it gets picked up.  The production doesn't warrant a $20mil+ contract for his age 40 season.  I could see Votto opting to retire than wear another jersey besides the Reds.

2017 Pre-Season Profile: San Diego Padres

#29

The San Diego Padres have seen all sorts of extremes over the last couple years.  They were all in one year, then rebuilding the next.  What will 2017 hold?

My 2016 Predictions

5th in NL West

The Padres will trade over half of their starting rotation by the end of the season.

2016 Results

68-94, 5th in NL West

A combination of hitting a complete reset button on their franchise and having one of the most competitive divisions in baseball resulted in a dismal 2016 for the Padres.  The silver lining to their season was the experience they gave to all their youth, including rookie manager Andy Green.  As for last year's fearless prediction, I nailed it!  Starting pitchers that were traded during the 2016 season numbered 3 or 4 (could've been 5), depending on who you want to count.  Drew Pomeranz ended the season with the Red Sox, Andrew Cashner ended the year with the Marlins, and James Shields was traded to the White Sox.  Colin Rea, last year's player to watch, was traded to the Marlins with Cashner but given back after he needed Tommy John surgery just one start in.  Tyson Ross, the best of the group, very easily could have been traded as well if he hadn't gotten hurt on Opening Day and sat out the rest of the year.

Additions / Subtractions

With all the trades made during the season, the Padres were fairly quiet during the offseason.  They let Tyson Ross walk and brought in veteran starters Jered Weaver and Jhoulys Chacin to fill out a very young rotation.  The biggest move of the offseason was the commitment to Wil Myers, making him the cornerstone of the new look Padres for years to come.

Most Important Hitter

Wil Myers

With the Padres in full rebuild mode, Wil Myers is one of the few players in the lineup with extensive big league experience.  He is also coming off a breakout All Star season in 2016.  He could easily emerge as a borderline superstar in 2017, which would allow all the youngsters in the lineup to relax and play without too much pressure.

Most Important Pitcher

Brandon Maurer

When the Padres traded Fernando Rodney last season, it opened up the competition at the back end of their bullpen for closer.  The most talented arm back there that should emerge is Brandon Maurer.  If he does, they potentially have a star in the making anchoring their bullpen.  He needs to be dominant if the bullpen is going to be serviceable this season.

Player to Watch

Manuel Margot & Hunter Renfroe

I couldn't just pick one.  These two outfield prospects are two of the most prized possessions of the Padres' farm system, and both are projected to make a huge impact this season.  Twenty-two year old Margot, one of the players acquired in the trade that sent Craig Kimbrel to the Red Sox, is the Padres' top prospect and is competing for the starting centerfield job.  Twenty-five year old Renfroe is a former first round pick of the Padres and is projected to be the starting rightfielder on Opening Day.  These two should forever be linked as cornerstones of the Padres' new core.

2017 Prediction

5th in NL West

The Padres are not quite ready to crawl out of the cellar of the NL West.  This is more due to the strength of the division than anything.  However, the pitching staff, which was once their strength, is now something that has a lot of learning still to do.  They will be fun to watch moving forward, but they are a few years away from being good.

Fearless Prediction

Margot and Renfroe will finish in the top 3 of Rookie of the Year voting in 2017.

I really want to predict that one of them will win this award, but any rational prognosticator would be crazy to pick anyone but the Braves' Dansby Swanson as the pre-season Rookie of the Year.  With that said, I see these two having a great year that might even get people talking about the Padres (which is a feat in itself).

2016 Pre-Season Profile: San Diego Padres

The San Diego Padres had a very disappointing 2015 season after stocking up on huge names heading into the season.  Now that expectations have fallen back down to earth, will the Padres have a more successful 2016?

Last Season

My 2015 Prediction: 2nd in NL West, WILD CARD, lose in Wild Card Game

2015 Result: 74-88, 4th in NL West

I'll admit, I was one of the people sold on the Padres last season.  With all the moves they made, they looked destined for a big year in 2015.  However, all those expectations came crashing down as the season could only be viewed as a colossal failure.  They fired their long-time manager and decided they needed to reset again after the one year experiment.

2016 Additions / Subtractions

Like I said, after the poor 2015 season, the Padres had to reshuffle the deck again.  They let Justin Upton and Ian Kennedy walk, and traded Craig Kimbrel and Jedd Gyorko.  Two of those names are ones that made the 2015 offseason such a success.  Coming onto the roster this year are Fernando Rodney, John Jay, and Alexei Ramirez.  They are good players, but definitely not the caliber of what they lost.

Most Important Hitter

Wil Myers

After winning Rookie of the Year in 2013 for the Rays, Wil Myers has been plagued by injuries.  His trade to the Padres last season was supposed to be the cornerstone of their resurgence, but he only played 60 games.  He is projected to the their starting first baseman this season, which might save some wear and tear on his body, but as one of the few young pieces brought in from the 2015 offseason, he needs to show a return to his rookie form for this front office to not be considered a complete failure.

Most Important Pitcher

Andrew Cashner

Andrew Cashner has shown flashes of brilliance over the last few seasons.  Last season was not one of those times.  He was once considered one of the emerging young arms in the game.  Now, he has a huge question mark about how good he could potentially be.  The starting rotation for the Padres has been a strength the last few seasons, and 2016 shouldn't be any different.  However, Cashner needs to finally show he can be a potential All Star starter for this staff to be as deep as it has been the last few years.

Player to Watch

Colin Rea

Like I said, the starting rotation for the Padres has been their strength the last few seasons.  The next big arm they have coming into that rotation is Colin Rea.  Rea made his big league debut last season with marginal success, but now he is projected to start the season in the rotation.  He is just one of a young wave of players that will have a potential impact for the 2016 Padres.

2016 Prediction

5th in NL West

Last season, the Padres were a popular pick to do great things.  With many of those moves not working, it has left the Padres in chaos.  They sold the farm last year to bring in players that didn't work.  Now they are stuck with guys like Melvin Upton, Jr., Matt Kemp, and James Shields and not a very rich farm system to add depth.  They are stuck.  Add to that a rookie manager with no experience, and this season has the potential of being a major disaster for San Diego.

Fearless Prediction

The Padres will trade over half of their starting rotation by the end of the season.

If this season becomes the dumpster fire I think it could be, the Padres will be heavy sellers at the Trade Deadline, and they have three guys in their starting rotation that could be key pieces for any contender.  "Big Game" James Shields would be a welcome addition to any playoff staff with his durability and experience.  Andrew Cashner, if he plays well this year, could be a wild card for a team looking for some rotation depth.  Their ace this season, Tyson Ross, would be the key piece.  He is young and talented.  If they want to really bolster their farm system and future, he would need to go.  The Padres' current front office seems to have a "go big or go home" mentality, so watch for all three of them to be traded, which would leave a guy like Colin Rea as their ace.

2015 Pre-Season Profile: San Diego Padres

After an uneventful 2014 season that saw a fourth straight losing season, the San Diego Padres had arguably the most exciting offseason in recent memory.  Will all the moves lead to success in 2015?

Last Season

77-85, 3rd in NL West

It could be said that the Padres were one of the most boring teams in baseball in 2014.  They had a solid pitching staff, but a lack of offense led to a sub-par season.  They only reason their record and standing were that good is because they happened to have the Rockies and the Diamondbacks in their division.

2015 Additions / Subtractions

To say the Padres' lineup went through a transformation this offseason would be a grand understatement.  Of the 2014 Opening Day starting lineup, only two players (Jedd Gyorko, Yonder Alonso) will remain come Opening Day 2015.  Many of the former starters will now be backing up the likes of Matt Kemp, Wil Myers, Justin Upton, Will Middlebrooks, and Derek Norris.  All these players were acquired via blockbuster deals this offseason.  Add to that pitching ace and staff mentor James Shields, and you have gone from one of the most boring teams in the league to the of the best and most exciting.  Who cares what they lost?  They upgraded every position around the diamond.

Most Important Hitter

Matt Kemp

The new heart of the Padres' batting lineup now features the likes of Justin Upton and Derek Norris.  However, the player that may determine the success or failure of the 2015 season is Matt Kemp.  Only a few years removed from being votes away from winning an MVP, Kemp's career is on the rebound.  After some injury plagued seasons, he finally seemed to be back on the right track in the second half of 2014.  Kemp had, however, overstayed his welcome in the extremely crowded Dodger outfield.  If he was going to make it back to who he once was, it would be for someone else ... like the Padres.  Now the Padres are counting on the end of 2014 being a sign of things to come instead of a flash of what could have been if it weren't for another injury.

Most Important Pitcher

Andrew Cashner

After being the Padres' Opening Day starter in 2014, Andrew Cashner never lived up to the billing of ace.  Suffering through an injury plagued season, he only tallied 5 wins last year.  Now with Big Game James taking the pressure off, Cashner can live up to his potential and be the type of guy that can seemlessly slot in behind the new ace of the staff.

Player to Watch

Austin Hedges

The Padres' number two prospect, catcher Austin Hedges, is not slated to be ready until next season.  However, if they get a chance at a postseason run, look for him to be a potential impact bat off the bench a la Andrew Susac last year for the Giants.  Also, watch for Hedges to get an early look if there is an injury to Derek Norris.  However, with most of last year's starters now serving as this year's bench, don't look for many, if any, rookies to pop up with any significant time this year.

Prediction

2nd in AL West, WILD CARD, lose in Wild Card Game

This complete overhaul of the roster has the Padres poised for a postseason already in 2015.  They brought in enough proven bats that Petco Park will not even prevent them from scoring runs.  Add to their young pitching staff a solid ace and another year of experience, and the Padres are destined to make the biggest leap in the standings and be a contender for the foreseeable future.