If the Seahawks
win on a missed chip-shot field goal . . .
And if the Steelers win because of
horrible officiating . . .
And if Aaron Rodgers and Andy Reid
make you feel stupid for betting against them . . .
And if the Bengals, Vikings,
Redskins, and Texans all lost in horrible fashion . . .
That can only mean one thing: It’s
the NFL playoffs! Of the remaining eight
quarterbacks, one has never won a playoff game, two have never made it to a
Super Bowl, and the other five share a combined nine championships. I wonder if that information will play any
significant role in which teams I predict to win this week. It sure as hell didn’t last week, when I took A.J. McCarron and Kirk Cousins, and they each broke my heart. But hey, when you play with matches, you tend
to get burned – kind of like how if you send your linebackers coach on to the
field to incite the opposing team in order to draw a late-game penalty, you get
condemned
by league officials. Or if you purchased
illegal HGH supplements and had them shipped to your house under your wife’s
name, you get publicly criticized. Or if you are found not
guilty of deflating footballs, you still get unfairly ostracized by the media. Yep, it’s
the NFL playoffs and I am in a bitter mood!
Kansas City at New
England (-5½)
Saturday, January
16, 4:35pm EST, CBS.
In the first half of the 2015
season, the Patriots were the 2014 version of themselves (unstoppable on
offense, annihilating teams every week, playing angry, disciplined,
mistake-free football). During the
second half, however, the Patriots were the 2013 version of themselves (ridden
with injuries at every conceivable position, eager to run the clock to get out
of games without suffering further injuries, no consistent running game to
speak of). So heading into this week, it
is more than understandable to ask the question: Which team are they? The 2013 team, which limped into the playoffs
without its biggest weapons and subsequently lost in Denver, or the 2014 Super
Bowl championship team?
For the moment, let’s stick to what
we know. The Patriots have historically
dominated the divisional round in the Brady/Belichick era, winning eight out of
a possible nine home games. The Chiefs
are coming off their first playoff victory in two decades over a team that
should have never made the playoffs to begin with. The Patriots are expected to start several of
their biggest players who have been sidelined due to injury (including Julian
Edelman, Danny Amendola, and Devin McCourty).
The Chiefs have some injury question marks, none bigger than Jeremy
Maclin and Justin Houston.
But then there are the things that
make me nervous as a biased Patriots fan.
One is that Kansas City has won 11 straight games; we had a similar
streak in 2003, and when you win that many games, you panic less, come together
as a team more, and eliminate the kind of intimation Bill Belichick teams
typically thrive upon. Conversely, the
Pats finished the season 2-4. Of course,
we were banged up and perhaps mucking around to avoid getting the one seed for
some unknown reason (kind of like how we inexplicably kicked off to the Jets to
start OT a few weeks ago). No one ever
said being a Patriots fan wasn’t interesting.
Another scary element looming in the
minds of Pats fans is the last time we played the Chiefs – you know, when Trent Dilfer called Tom Brady
old and said we would have to start playing Jimmy G. But should we put a lot of stock in that
game? At the same time, I wrote last
week that many of the Chiefs’ wins during their current streak are unimpressive
(last week was a beautiful illustration of that), and as I said above, at least
a few of the Pats’ late-season losses were due to trying to avoid the
Steelers injuries.
New England loses when three things
happen: When Tom Brady is pressured and sacked; when they cannot run the ball
(2-3 in games of 70 or fewer yards); and when they score under 27 points (1-3
in such games this season). Essentially,
we can chalk those three factors to one simple strategy: The Chiefs’ defensive
line has to play outstanding. When Tom
Brady is given time in the pocket, as the Ravens and Seahawks crucially
permitted him last season, the Patriots are virtually impossible to beat, and that’s
not even considering when Edelman and Gronkowski playing at their highest
levels. The Chiefs sacked Brian Hoyer
three times last week, and forced four interceptions; but I think it’s safe to
say that Hoyer is not Tom Brady.
It is worth noting, however, that
Brady has been sacked 38 times this season – the only time he had more sacks
was in 2013. Then there’s his high ankle
sprain suffered in the season finale against Miami. The Patriots notoriously underplay the extent
of their injuries, but Brady was noticeably limping in that game. The offensive line has been in shambles since
November, and with no LeGarrette Blount or Dion Lewis, the Pats will have to
rely on the legs of (gulp) Steven Jackson and Brandon Boldin. Sure, we didn’t exactly light the running
game on fire last year against the Ravens or Seahawks, but at least we could
fake the run or call for play-action.
Not this week (or this postseason, for that matter.)
At this point, you may be thinking,
“OK, so the Chiefs defense, which specializes in stuffing the ground game and
pressuring the QB, may have the advantage.
But they still cannot score points.”
Well, that deserves a more careful look.
The four quarterbacks who managed to beat New England this year were
Brock Osweiler, Sam Bradford, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Ryan Tannehill (suddenly the
name “Alex Smith” doesn’t seem all that bad).
Two of those losses came when the Pats blew two-touchdown leads; in the
other two we gave up 300 yards through the air, 5 touchdowns, and zero
interceptions. Want more? This season, the Pats defense only had five
games with multiple takeaways. Compare
that with nine such games each in 2014 and 2013. Including last week, the Chiefs have nine
games where the offense scored 26+ points, and seven of those games were on the
road. The Pats were 3-3 in games giving up 26+ points.
The Chiefs aren’t exactly an
electric offense, but Charcandrick West, Spencer Ware, and even Alex Smith are
all better running options than the Pats’ best runningback. They doubled the Patriots turnover ratio (+14
compared to +7) and played a much tougher schedule (Kansas City only lost one
AFC road game all season). There’s no
combination quite like Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, but Andy Reid and Alex
Smith each have considerable playoff experience too. The Patriots come into the
game with more off-field drama and higher
expectations; having thrilled an already ecstatic Kansas City fan
base, the Chiefs should come into the game feeling like they are playing with
house money.
It may be shocking to say, but here
goes nothing: I think I have to pick against my beloved team. I can’t help but notice the eerie parallels
between this Chiefs teams and the other teams we’ve blown playoff games to
(specifically, the Mark Sanchez-led Jets and the Ravens): An offense
prioritizing ball control, a brutal defensive line, prior success against the
Patriots, and a fearless coaching staff.
The 11-game winning streak may give the Chiefs too much confidence, but
watching them last week (in an admittedly one-sided game), there wasn’t any
discernable sense of cockiness or hubris.
The best-case scenario for the Patriots is, like they’ve done so many
times before, Tom Brady shuts up all the doubters, they build a quick 14-0 lead,
and the environment of Gillette Stadium in January intimidates the opponent
into submission. The problem is, sadly,
I believe the Patriots really tried to win many of those games they ultimately
lost down the stretch, while the Chiefs have played the last three months
unafraid of anyone or anything.
Prediction: Kansas City 24, New England 17
Playoff doppelganger: 2010 AFC
Divisional Round, NY Jets 28, New England 21.
Because of course. This game took
me many years to recover from, but when I finally overcame it, the feeling was so sweet. Serenity now, serenity now.
Green Bay at
Arizona (-7)
Saturday, January
16, 8:15pm EST, NBC.
The writing was on
the wall going into last Sunday, when everyone
was picking Washington over Green Bay. It’s
never good when you are the trendy, popular pick; just ask Mark Helfrich. Meanwhile, everyone did
not relax and forgot that they were picking Kirk Cousins over the Super Bowl
champion, two-time league MVP, and Mr. Olivia Munn.
It’s fair to say that the Packers
resemble the Patriots in how erratic and bipolar they’ve looked down the
stretch, due in large part to injuries.
Since October, they’ve won just four games – against Minnesota, Dallas,
Oakland, and the Hail Mary in Detroit – and when you add in last week, the
Packers’ resume doesn’t look that outstanding.
I mean, this is the same team that lost to Denver, Carolina, and Arizona
by a combined score of 104 to 47. But like
the Patriots, maybe Green Bay’s M.O. has been to rest everyone and don’t worry
about giving maximal effort until the postseason. Hell, that always seems to work for Eli Manning.
It’s also possible that the Redskins
were a fraudulent team that won nine games in a horrific division, but any time
a team can win by 17 points on the road – especially after overcoming an early
deficit of 11 points – the result is impressive and merits consideration. Obviously, the Cardinals are a much more difficult
challenge for Green Bay, particularly because they beat the Packers by 30 on
December 27. But if you accept the logic
that Green Bay wasn’t playing at full strength or effort for much of the
season, you may have to throw out much of what that game appeared to
demonstrate.
And what did that game show? Green Bay’s offensive line was awful, giving up
an unbelievable eight sacks, while Corey Redding and Jerraud Powers each had
fumble returns for touchdowns. Arizona’s
secondary was even more outstanding, limiting Rodgers to 151 yards and only one
touchdown. Meanwhile, the Cardinals
offense did what it has done all year – create big passing plays down the
field, enable a consistent and diverse running game (David Johnson, Andre
Ellington, and Kerwynn Williams each had at least seven carries for 39 yards),
and limit turnovers.
At 36 years old, Carson Palmer is
coming off the best statistical season of his career, throwing for over 4,600
yards, 35 touchdowns, and most importantly, not getting injured. That critical caveat is what worries me most
about Palmer. In his career, he has
missed 32 games due to injury. Injuries
have also sidelined Tyrann Mathieu and Chris Johnson, both of which are huge
blows to this team. In spite of this,
Arizona looked great down the stretch – that is, until two weeks ago when the
Seahawks demolished
the Cardinals at home (in a game in which every probability seemed to be pointing
toward Palmer taking a Michael Bennett hit and being sidelined for the
playoffs; instead, that hit was made by N’Damukong Suh on Tom Brady). Like the
Patriots and the Packers, that late-season loss was alarming; but was it a
meaningless game in which starters were rested, or does Arizona really have
some gaping holes to fix?
In many respects, the Cardinals may
have had the most balanced and complete team in the league in 2015, but besides
the injury worries, one thing also strikes me about them: Outside of that
Packers victory, they don’t have too many impressive wins on their resume. True, they beat the Seahawks in Seattle, and
the next week took care of business at home against the Bengals – but look at
the rest of the teams they beat: New Orleans, Chicago, San Francisco (twice),
Detroit, Baltimore, Cleveland, St. Louis, Minnesota and Philadelphia. No
Carolina, no Denver or New England, and their non-Seahawk losses were to the
Steelers and Rams. You can’t control
what schedule you get, but Arizona’s is a little suspect.
Two other observations about the
Cardinals’ losses this year: In each of the three games, they gave up over 120
yards on the ground and could not force a turnover (conversely, they had three
giveaways in each game). Last week, the
Packers had 141 yards rushing and only turned the ball over once. Green Bay had eight games where they didn’t
turn the ball over at all, while Arizona had eight games with multiple
giveaways.
If there was any lesson learned last
weekend, it was: Don’t discount the experienced playoff QB. Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Alex Smith, and Ben
Roethlisberger beat Kirk Cousins, Teddy Bridgewater, Brian Hoyer, and A.J.
McCarron. I think Palmer is in a class
just above those last four guys, but he’s still 0 for 1 in playoff games (I don’t
count the Steelers debacle in 2006), while Rodgers just won his fourth road
playoff game. Including last week, five
of the six games where the Packers scored 29 or more points came on the
road. Outside of Sam Shields and Quinten
Rollins, the Packers’ defense is the healthiest it has been all season, which
is probably the same thing you can say about the Green Bay running game. David Johnson has been great for the
Cardinals, but he is still a rookie, while players like John Brown, J.J.
Nelson, Deone Bucannon, and Markus Golden are still in their first couple years
as pros. Meanwhile, everyone is picking against Green Bay once again, which is
exactly the way Aaron Rodgers likes it. It’s
a tough call but in this circumstance, I say experience means something.
Prediction: Green Bay 34, Arizona 27
Playoff doppelganger: 2008 NFC
Divisional Round, Arizona 33, Carolina 13. Cardinals fans will certainly
remember this one: Stumbling into the playoffs, with no one giving them any
chance, with no running game or consistency to speak of, the wily veteran Kurt
Warner defied all the odds and showed why experience and a strong arm are two
of the most important commodities to have in a postseason run. Like the 2015 Cardinals, the 2008 Panthers
were coming off the franchise’s best season and were the critical darlings of
many prognosticators. But then Jake
Delhomme became Jake Delhomme and turned the ball over 13450924332 times. I bet he still wishes he could have gotten bailed out in the first
quarter by Kimo von Oelhoffen.
Seattle at
Carolina (-3)
Sunday, January
17, 1:05pm EST, Fox.
It is very
possible that these are the two best teams in the NFL at the moment. One is the two-time defending conference
champion, the other became the sixth team in NFL history to finish 15-1 and has
a QB who is the shoo-in for league MVP. After
four consecutive Seahawks victories over the Panthers (by an average of just
under 7 points) Carolina finally took down Seattle this season in Week 6, with
Cam Newton connecting on the game-winning touchdown
to Greg Olsen. That felt like a seminal
and tide-changing moment in Carolina Panthers franchise history – as well as
the most frustrating and bitter moment in the Seahawks season.
I believe the Panthers were the best
team in football in 2015. You can find
holes here and there; they did it without Kelvin Benjamin, relied perhaps too heavily
on the likes of Ted Ginn, Jerricho Cotchery, and Devin Funchess, and had the
luxury of playing ten games against the NFC South and AFC South. They haven’t played a team with a winning
record since November 8, and had several games this year (including vs.
Indianapolis, Green Bay, New Orleans, and the Giants) where they blew
double-digit leads, but hung on to win.
Sometimes it wasn’t pretty. Often times it wasn’t overly impressive on
the field. But finishing 15-1, leading
the league in scoring offense, rushing offense, and takeaways, and having the
league’s best player score 45 touchdowns is undeniably impressive.
The Seahawks weren’t exactly pretty
either last week, relying on a bad offensive play, a bad defensive play, and a
reprehensible special teams play by their opponent to win by a single point. Has there ever been a luckier team in NFL
history than the Seahawks? I don’t deny
that they’re immensely talented on both sides of the ball, but at this point,
how can anyone be surprised anymore when these types of antics occur (Bill
Barnwell had a perfect tweet
about this). As a Seahawks hater, I knew
that a 27-yard chip shot was too good to be true. I knew that Peterson would fumble at a
critical time (ask Todd if you don’t believe me), just like I knew they would
recover that stupid onside kick last year, just like I knew the refs would uphold the Fail Mary. I’m not Nostradamus. I’m a Seahawks hater.
In many respects, Carolina is the
most desirable opponent for the Seahawks.
Without that Newton-to-Olsen touchdown, Seattle would be 5-0 against
Carolina in the Russell Wilson era (never mind that each game was close, that’s
just always how Seattle plays). Last
week was the eighth time the Seahawks have faced off against a playoff team
this season. This week will be the sixth
time they’ve faced a playoff team on the road.
They get back a healthy Marshawn Lynch, a healthy Luke Willson, and the weather
will not be below zero. In his five
games against the Seahawks, Cam Newton has thrown four touchdowns, five
interceptions, has never rushed for over 42 yards, and has only completed 56
percent of his passes. Against the
Panthers, Russell Wilson has thrown for seven touchdowns, three interceptions,
and has completed over 68 percent of his passes.
Look, it’s not rocket science
here. Seattle had the tougher schedule;
they have the better quarterback, the better coach, more playoff experience,
resentment stemming the game earlier this season, and they have their best
offensive player in the lineup once again.
Carolina played weak teams all year, have only one playoff win in Cam’s
career (vs. Ryan Lindley), will be missing one of its premier defenders
(Charles Tillman), questionable receivers, and they give up leads. Cam’s stats look great, but he also had a
completion rate under 60 percent and only had four games where he averaged more
than five yards per rush attempt.
Carolina comes in as the favorite because they won 15 games, but shared
only two common opponents with Seattle: Dallas and Green Bay. The Panthers haven’t advanced past the
divisional round since 2005.
If you take the Panthers, you are
choosing to believe that Ted Ginn, Greg Olsen, and Jerricho Cotchery can beat
Richard Sherman, Kam Chancellor, and Earl Thomas. You’re choosing to believe that the team with
the easiest schedule in the league – a team that struggled in December games against
the Saints, Giants, and Falcons – can beat a team that has surrendered three
offensive touchdowns in its last six games.
You’re choosing to take the #1 offense over the #1 defense in a game
where the latter hasn’t lost in the playoffs to an NFC opponent in three years. You’re choosing to take the quarterback that
has been historically stifled over the quarterback that does this. I think it’s a no-brainer. Minnesota had its chance last week. That’s the closest it is going to get.
Prediction: Seattle 37, Carolina 17
Playoff doppelganger: 2010 NFC
Divisional Round, Green Bay 48, Atlanta 21.
The Falcons came into the game as the trendy #1 seed in the NFC, except they
had played a fraudulent schedule with the exception of a three-point regular
season win over the Packers. That was
enough to rile Aaron Rodgers up, and he torched the Falcons much-vaunted
defense for 366 yards and four total touchdowns. In the cases of both the Packers and the Seahawks,
not having a bye may actually help preserve momentum and focus.
Pittsburgh at
Denver (-7)
Sunday, January 17, 4:40pm EST, CBS.
Ten years ago, Ben Roethlisberger
and the six-seeded Steelers marched confidently on the road in the divisional
round and beat top-seeded Peyton Manning (due in large part to the unheralded defensive playmaking of Big Ben). Four
years ago, the Steelers marched confidently into Denver in the divisional round
and were 7½-point favorites over Tim Tebow, until this happened. Of course, Manning didn’t play for the
Broncos in 2006, nor was he on the field in 2011, but hopefully you get the
idea: This matchup, in whatever form it has taken, has given us some of the
more remarkable and improbable results the past decade.
There are a lot of unknowns in this
matchup, but there are a few things we know for sure. One is that the 2015 Broncos were a very
fortunate team. They were all but done
in Kansas City until Jeremy Hill Jamaal Charles was given the ball late; they trailed the
Patriots by two touchdowns in the fourth quarter until the refs suddenly
remembered who they were rooting for and commenced calling excessive penalties on Rob
Gronkowski; they survived overtime contests against the Browns and Bengals, and
somehow beat San Diego in spite of five giveaways. Their quarterbacks combined for 23
interceptions, a 76.3 QB rating, and 12 wins.
They had no major injuries to speak of all season (outside of Manning’s,
which may have given him two months of significant rest) and four of their five
wins over playoff teams came at home (the only win was the infamous Chiefs game
at Arrowhead).
We also know that after last week,
the Steelers are considerably banged up, with likely game-time decisions for
DeAngelo Williams and Antonio Brown, as well as a beat-up Roethlisberger, but
still . . . Denver is a seven-point favorite?
Am I not understanding something here?
The Broncos beat only four teams all season by a touchdown or more,
while four of the Steelers’ five losses with Roethlisberger under center were
by seven points or fewer. Four weeks
ago, on December 20, the Broncos not only lost to the Steelers, but gave up the
most points in any game they played all season (34). And oh yeah, Denver’s starting quarterback
has lost six times in the divisional round, and has gone one-and-done in the
playoffs a record nine times.
It’s certainly a considerable
advantage for the Broncos if Williams and Brown cannot play. Denver’s unequivocal strength is its
top-rated defense, which went 11-1 in games allowing 24 points or fewer. They only gave up one 300-yard passer all
season (you guessed it) and in the
December 20 game, Williams was a virtual non-factor, rushing 14 times for only
26 yards (Emmanuel Sanders nearly outgained him on the ground on one
carry). The Broncos scored 27 points in
the game’s first 28 minutes, before Osweiler and company were shut out in the
second half. I watched that game and
neither team looked perfect, with each throwing pivotal interceptions in the
game’s final five minutes. I will say
that I cannot imagine Denver players being too thrilled with the way they
finished that game.
The Sheriff Manning will of
course be an important factor, but I feel like the Broncos are the kind of team
that can survive a 120-yard, 2-interception performance (oddly enough, I feel
that way about the Steelers too). And the question must be asked: If Manning is
in the midst of another divisional round dud, why wouldn’t Gary Kubiak pull the
trigger and put Osweiler in? Denver went
8-1 in games where they rushed for 100+ yards (again, you can guess where their one
loss came). Pittsburgh’s defense has
played quietly well against the run all season, and if you take away the one
long gain surrendered to Jeremy Hill, the Bengals only ran 23 times for 53
yards last week. But if the Steelers’
run defense has been quiet, the Broncos’ run defense has been booming, allowing
only one 100-yard rusher all season (this time it might not be who you
guessed).
If you’re picking the Steelers in
this game, you believe that Manning’s two months of rest will have little
impact on his well-documented playoff demons.
You believe that Pittsburgh can score 24 points against anyone, at any
location, and you believe that Fitzgerald Toussaint, Jordan Todman, and
Martavis Bryant can make up for the losses to Williams and Brown (who may still
play anyway). You believe that
Roethlisberger has won more Super Bowls than Manning for a reason, and you know
that the only thing fluky about the December 20 game was how bad the Steelers
defense played against Brock Osweiler in the first half.
Those are not necessarily bad points
to make, but for me, they do not add up to enough confidence to realistically
take the Steelers in this game. If you
remember correctly, Pittsburgh just nearly blew a 15-point fourth quarter lead
to A.J. McCarron, and was bailed out by extremely fortunate penalties (and a
few horrendous no-calls). This season,
the Steelers played poorly on the road in New England, Kansas City, Seattle,
and Baltimore, and with the exception of Kansas City, those games were played
with healthy lineups intact. Pittsburgh
has turned the ball over two or more times in 10 of its past 11 games; Denver
is 11-1 in games where they forced one takeaway. Toussaint and Todman played well last week,
but that was by far the most relevant either runningback has been in a game the
past two seasons (you have to believe Cincinnati’s defensive scheme was more
focused on eliminating Brown and Bryant).
We all know Peyton Manning isn’t
necessarily Tom Brady when it comes to
playoff football (nor is Brock Oswiler). But I also know what network the game is on,
and I talked about talking about which legendary announcing pair will be talking
about how Peyton Manning just had the most noble and distinguished season of
his amazing career (anything else is heresy). Picking against The Sheriff is a grievous
violation of taste and ethics that may be punishable by being exiled to
Cincinnati and its thuggish fans.
Prediction: Denver 19, Pittsburgh 16.
Playoff doppelganger: 2004 AFC
Divisional Round, Pittsburgh 20, NY Jets 17 (OT). Maybe this comparison is a cop-out since the
2015 Broncos are basically the same fraudulent team as the 2004 Steelers, but
for no other reason, the two teams represent the pinnacle of winning games in
truly lucky fashion. The Jets had a +2
turnover margin in the game, and could have sealed victory on two separate
occasions, but perhaps inevitably, Doug Brien pulled a Blair Walsh both times. I
hated that game, and I hate the two teams involved in this matchup.
Thoughts? Disagreements? Write below!
