Zach's Fearless NFL Predictions 2016: Super Bowl 50

In honor of the 50th anniversary of the nation's greatest sporting spectacle not on pay-per-view, here are 50 amazing facts about Super Bowl 50 (not Super Bowl L, you dummy):

1. The 2015 Broncos scored 355 points and allowed 296 points.  Amazingly, the 1973 Broncos scored 354 points and allowed 296 points.  The 2015 Broncos went 12-4 and made the Super Bowl; the 1973 Broncos went 7-5-2 and missed the playoffs.

2. Just in case you forgot, the 1973 Broncos scored 354 points in 14 games, while it took the 2015 Broncos 16 games to reach that mark.

3. In 2015, 39-year-old Broncos QB Peyton Manning threw for 2,249 yards, 9 touchdowns and 17 interceptions. In 1973, 35-year-old Broncos QB Charley Johnson threw for 2,465 yards, 20 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions. Manning finished 27^th in the NFL in pass yards; Johnson finished 3^rd.

4. Between Manning and Brock Osweiler, Broncos quarterbacks combined for 23 interceptions, the worst in the league.

5. Since 1990, 85 NFL teams have thrown 23 interceptions in a single season. Of those 85, only 11 made the playoffs. 

6. The combined playoff records of those previous 10 teams before the 2015 Broncos: 2-10.  None of those teams ever made it past the divisional round.

7. The 2015 Broncos committed 31 turnovers.  In the past 30 years, only one team (the 1999 Rams) committed 31 turnovers and won the Super Bowl. 

8. The Broncos joined the 4-12 Cowboys and 5-11 49ers in being the only teams in the league which never scored more than 31 points in a game all season.

9. In the last 25 years, every Super Bowl team has scored over 31 points during the season at least once.

10. Week 1, the Ravens had the football at the Denver 16 yard line with 36 seconds left.  Joe Flacco threw a pass to the end zone that was intercepted by Darian Stewart.  Denver won 19-13.

11. Week 2, the Chiefs led Denver by 7 with 40 seconds left.  The Broncos scored a touchdown, kicked off, and scored off a Jamaal Charles fumble at the 20 yard line.  Denver won 31-24.

12. In the fourth quarter of Week 4, Teddy Bridgewater completed 11 of 13 passes for 127 yards and Adrian Peterson ran for 47 yards and a touchdown.  Down by 3, the Vikings had the ball at their own 47 with 35 seconds left when Bridgewater was stripped-sacked.  Denver won 23-20.

13.  Week 6, the Raiders gained 139 yards in the fourth quarter (the Broncos gained only 30), but lost when David Carr’s pass was intercepted and returned 74 yards for a touchdown by Chris Harris.  Denver won 16-10.

14. Week 7, the Browns trailed the Broncos by 3 and had a first down at the Denver 11 with 1:47 left.  They kicked a field goal to tie the game.  Miraculously, they got the ball back in Denver territory with 53 seconds remaining, until Josh McCown threw an interception.  In overtime, they had a first down at the Denver 39.  The plays that followed: A run for a 3 yard loss, an 8-yard sack, a 2-yard sack, and a 5-yard delay of game penalty.  Denver won in overtime 26-23.

15. Week 11, the Bears trailed 17-9 and scored a touchdown with 29 seconds left.  The 2-point conversion failed.  The Broncos won 17-15 in a game where they punted 7 times.

16. Week 12, the Patriots led 21-7 in the fourth quarter and were getting the ball back.  Chris Harper, a backup signed off the practice squad, fumbled the punt return.  After Dont’a Hightower and Rob Gronkowski were knocked out of the game, the Broncos won 30-24 in overtime.

17.  Week 16, the Bengals, led by A.J. McCarron, had a 14-0 lead 29 minutes into the game before they collapsed in the second half.  Although the Broncos had a fumble and missed field goal in the fourth quarter, they still won 20-17 in overtime.

18.  Week 17, the 4-11 Chargers forced 5 turnovers and led by 3 points with 10 minutes left. San Diego scored only scored 10 points off the 5 Denver turnovers.  The Broncos won 27-20.

19.  In the AFC Divisional Round, the Steelers played without their top two runningbacks and its top wide receiver. Pittsburgh led by 4 in the fourth quarter and was driving in Denver territory until fourth-string runningback Fitzgerald Toussaint fumbled. The Broncos won 23-16 in a game where they didn’t score a touchdown in the first 57 minutes of play.

              

20. In the AFC Championship Game, the Patriots had the ball inside the Denver 20 yard line on three separate drives. Denver punted 9 times and was outgained by 92 yards and 8 first downs.  The Broncos won 20-18.

21. Just to review, that’s 11 victories that Denver easily could have (and in many cases, deserved to have) blown.  Including the playoffs, the Broncos went 11-3 in games decided by a touchdown or less – the most close wins ever by a Super Bowl team.  By contrast, the 2015 Giants and Ravens went a combined 8-15 in such games.

22. Combined record of Denver’s opponents away from home in 2015: 56-72.  The Broncos played only two games away from home against opponents with winning records: Kansas City (the Jamaal Charles fumble) and Pittsburgh (a game they lost 34-27).

23. Excluding playoffs, total first downs surrendered to home opponents: 118.  Total first downs surrendered to road opponents: 171.

24. The combined QB rating of the Broncos quarterbacks (76.3) was worse than the combined QB rating of all the quarterbacks Denver faced (78.8).  The other teams which fared the same (along with their records): Minnesota (11-5), Indianapolis (8-8), Philadelphia (7-9), St. Louis (7-9), New York Giants (6-10), Chicago (6-10), San Francisco (5-11), Baltimore (5-11), Jacksonville (5-11), Dallas (4-12), Tennessee (3-13), Cleveland (3-13).

25. The last quarterback to win a Super Bowl after a season in which he threw more interceptions than touchdowns?  Len Dawson in 1969.  Dawson was also the last QB to win a Super Bowl after throwing under 10 TDs for the season (min. 3 starts).  Yes, those last two stats include Brad Johnson and Trent Dilfer.

26. The 2015 Panthers won 15 regular season games, only the 7^th such NFL team ever to do so. No 15-1 team has ever lost a Super Bowl.

27. Week 2, Carolina led Houston 24-10 with 7:00 remaining the fourth quarter.  Carolina won 24-17.

28. Week 3, Carolina led New Orleans 27-16 with 5:00 remaining in the fourth quarter.  Carolina won 27-22.

29. Week 4, Carolina led Tampa Bay 37-17 with 1:00 remaining in the fourth quarter.  Carolina won 37-23.

30. Week 8, Carolina led Indianapolis 23-6 with 8:00 remaining in the fourth quarter.  Carolina won 26-23 in overtime.

31. Week 9, Carolina led Green Bay 37-14 with 8:00 remaining in the fourth quarter.  Carolina won 37-29.

32. Week 11, Carolina led Washington 44-14 with 1:00 remaining in the fourth quarter.  Carolina won 44-16.

33. Week 12, Carolina led Dallas 33-6 with 5:00 remaining in the fourth quarter. Carolina won 33-14.

34. Week 16, Carolina led New York 35-21 with 6:00 remaining in the fourth quarter.  Carolina won 38-35.

35. In the NFC Divisional Round, Carolina led Seattle 31-14 with 7:00 remaining in the fourth quarter.  Carolina won 31-24. 

36. Considering all the meaningless fourth quarter points given up, it’s reasonable to say that of the 308 points Carolina surrendered on the season, 75 of them (24.4%) came in garbage time (this excludes the playoffs).

37. OK, OK, you Peyton apologists: Some of those games (such as Indianapolis, Green Bay, and New York) were admittedly not truly garbage time points because the opponent actually came back and put Carolina’s win at least temporarily in some degree of doubt.  But even if you take out those three games, that’s still 29 garbage time points on the season. Denver’s supposedly “vastly superior” defense gave up 296 total points in 2015; Carolina’s gave up 308.  Do the math.

38. Carolina gets an unfair reputation for playing an easy schedule.  In reality, they defeated Seattle twice, beat Arizona by 34 points, scored 37 points against the Packers, beat playoff teams in Washington and Houston, and defeated the Cowboys on Thanksgiving with a healthy Romo starting (but not finishing).

39. One more tidbit about Carolina’s unfairly-criticized schedule: Through the first eight weeks, the Panthers only won one game by 14 or more points.  In their ten games since then, they’ve had six victories by 14+ points. 

40. Carolina was 6-0 in games against Super Bowl-winning QBs.  Three of those wins came on the road.  Denver went 5-1 in games against Super Bowl-winning QBs, but all five of those wins were at home.  The sole loss (against Pittsburgh) came on the road.

41. This season, 23 defensive players had 4 or more interceptions.  Four of them were Panthers (Kurt Coleman, Thomas Davis, Luke Kuechly, Josh Norman).  By contrast, Denver’s leader in interceptions was Aqib Talib, with 3.

42. Carolina rushed for 144 yards against Seattle in the NFC Divisional Round.  That was the most rush yards allowed by the Seahawks’ defense in 27 games – since November 16, 2014, when they gave up 190 to the Chiefs. Going into the game, Russell Wilson had never faced a deficit larger than 21 points.  Carolina jumped out to a 31-point lead 24 minutes into the game.

43. Carolina’s 49-15 win over Arizona in the NFC Championship Game was, according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric, the 8^th most dominant single-game performance by a team in NFL history.  DVOA ranks it as the 2^nd most dominant playoff performance ever, behind San Francisco’s 44-3 walloping of the Giants in 1994.

44. That was Phil Simms’ final game as an NFL QB.  Sorry, just had to throw that in there.

45. One more thing regarding DVOA: According to the metric, Denver is coming off wins over the 7^th and 6^th best teams, respectively.  Carolina is coming off victories over the 1^st and 5^th ranked teams, respectively.

46. As a team, Carolina has rushed for 100+ yards in 31 consecutive games, dating back to Week 5 of 2014. Denver did go 5-2 in games allowing over 100 yards rushing this season, but all five of those wins were the bullshit-style wins aforementioned in #10-18 on this list.

47. Since December 1, 2014, the Panthers have gone 22-2.  They have a +31 turnover margin over that span.

48. Since December 1, 2014, Cam Newton and Steph Curry have combined for 136 wins, 24 losses, and one championship (for now).

49. Since 2011 (Cam’s first season on the Panthers), Carolina leads the NFL in rushing touchdowns win 90, ranks 3^rd in total rushing yards, 4^th in yards per rush, and 7^th in total wins – not bad for a team that has had only two winning seasons in five years. 

50. Cam Newton has thrown for over 340 yards only three times: His first (422 yards), second (432 yards), and fourth starts (374 yards) as an NFL quarterback.

All right, so that last fact doesn’t really supply a meaningful case for which team will win Super Bowl 50, but it’s still an amazing and quirky stat.  Cam’s most prolific passing days occurred when he was at his most raw and inexperienced.  How many other successful quarterbacks can you say that about?  By contrast, Peyton Manning’s greatest passing day (479 yards in a 2014 win over Arizona) came on his 244^th regular-season start, in the middle of his 16^th season.  And it’s the same case across the board: Tom Brady’s best passing day (517 yards) occurred on his 146^th game, Ben Roethlisberger’s (522 yards) on his 151^st game, and Eli Manning’s (510 yards) on his 123^rd.

Of course, Cam has a much smaller sample size (78 regular season and 5 playoff games) and his transformation into a (somewhat) more conventional pocket passer has been well-documented.  Whatever he did in the offseason prior to 2015 to elevate his game, it has worked; going into the season, he had a win-loss record under .500, only one playoff win (over Ryan Lindlay) and a lifetime QB rating of 85.2.  In 2015, he was the presumptive league MVP and it wasn’t even close.  But the (correct) question on everyone’s minds is: How will he perform on the game’s biggest stage against the league’s best defense?

Obviously, after reading those 50 facts, you should have some coherent idea about where I stand on this game.  But it’s also true that I tend to choose games with my heart rather than my brain; three weeks ago, right after the Steelers and Seahawks pulled out unbelievable wins at the last second, I was ready to send everything to hell and proclaim another disastrous Denver-Seattle Super Bowl.  But one week later, the Patriots restored my confidence and I thought they were a lock to beat Denver.  I purposefully overlooked Brady’s shaky record in Denver and Manning’s ability to play well at home in sunny weather after two months of rest and sustenance courtesy of Rocco and Gino.

            I have a rooting interest in this game and it is the Carolina Panthers, a franchise I’ve been rooting for since the days of Steve Beuerlein and Tim Biakabutuka.  I even felt a little sad after my team beat them in the Super Bowl 12 years ago and unless they were playing the Patriots or Saints, I can’t really remember any games I ever rooted against them.  So let’s forget about my heart (or my brain) for a second, and play a game of “worst-case scenario.”  Let’s try to imagine the hypothetical circumstances enabling the Broncos to win Super Bowl 50:

            First, Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware will have to dominate the Panthers’ offensive line, particularly on the outside, where tackles Michael Oher and Mike Remmers may be vulnerable.  Of course they had little difficulty doing that against the Patriots, but if they are able to beat the tackles, the Broncos’ pass rush also must cover the middle of the field in order to prevent plays like this from happening.  Denver was successful two weeks ago because Wade Phillips never blitzed, which is something they’ll have to continue to do in the Super Bowl since the Panthers have a quarterback who isn’t exactly intimidated by blitzes.

The Denver secondary will also have to eliminate downfield passes, which of course they were also very good at this season.  It’s not unthinkable to believe that Aqib Talib, Chris Harris, and T.J. Ward can capably cover the likes of Greg Olson, Philly Brown, and Ted Ginn (who may not even require too much coverage due to his fairly egregious drop rate).  Forcing the Panthers into third-and-longs and eliminating long completions or scrambles is a great gameplan for the Broncos, and again, it’s not inconceivable that they could do this.  Denver was middle-of-the-pack when it came to picking off passes, but remember that the Broncos 14-1 (including the playoffs) when forcing at least one takeaway.

            The problem comes when you try to draw up a best-case scenario for the Denver offense.  It’s a given that Manning must be turnover-free and perhaps get some assistance from calls (or no calls) on the field.  The Broncos will need Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas to have serious YAC (yards after catch) numbers, which could be possible if Manning targets the receiver not covered by Josh Norman; Robert McClain, filling in for an injured Peanut Tillman, has looked shaky at times this postseason.  Denver hasn’t been great running the ball in the last two games, but C.J. Anderson has broken off a couple of 30-yard runs which put the Broncos in field goal range in both games.  You have to wonder about the health of Thomas Davis and Jared Allen, and if Carolina opts to send a blitz against Manning, perhaps the offensive line can give him or Anderson enough time to burn the linebackers. 

            The issue is that even if the Broncos play well on offense, they probably won’t score more than 20-24 points.  Defenses know that Manning cannot throw the ball more than 15 yards or escape from pressure, and they also know that the Broncos’ conservative gameplan calls more for clock management and field position than explosiveness.  The best case scenario for the Broncos is that they take an early lead, preferably 7-0 or 10-0.  This eliminates pressure to pick up yardage and can enable Anderson and Ronnie Hillman to run out the clock.  Denver’s special teams have quietly been strong too, so keeping the Panthers inside their own 20 yard line (like they did so often against the Patriots) will be of paramount importance.  If the Broncos make it a game of field position, eliminate Cam’s comfort in the pocket, and benefit from some timely magic from the Sheriff, they can win the game.  They’re certainly the healthier team, the more experienced team, and just beat two quarterbacks who combined for six titles.  And let’s not forget who’s announcing.

            Writing this, it admittedly makes me feel a little uneasy about the “surefire” prediction that Carolina will beat Denver.  Haven’t we seen the Broncos execute this exact gameplan all season?  After all, as the 2003-2004 Patriots famously demonstrated, winning games in the clutch is a more important skill than winning blowouts.  But after thinking about it, there are three main reasons I still like the Panthers:

            1. Denver hasn’t faced a quarterback like Cam Newton all season.  In fact, the best rushing quarterbacks they squared off against were Andrew Luck and Alex Smith – in games the Broncos both lost.  On top of this, it’s virtually impossible to gameplan against Cam Newton because (recalling stat #47) no one in the league has figured him out.  Even if you take out his top receiver (Kelvin Benjamin), give him an oft-injured, second-tier runningback (Jonathan Stewart) and a very average offensive line (with Michael Oher, for god’s sake), he still puts up a 17-1 league MVP season.  That kind of transcendent skill is impossible to prepare for and contain.

            2. I trust Carolina in a neutral site more than Denver.  No one talks about the air pressure in Denver, which certainly had an effect on players like Gronkowski two weeks ago.  It takes the wind out of opponents, and extends the kicking game, which favors a defensive-oriented team like the Broncos.  Denver is coming off four straight home games where their average margin of victory was 4.75 points.  Their most impressive road wins were at Detroit Week 3 and at San Diego Week 13.  The Panthers weren’t exactly great away from home either, but did win in Seattle, New Orleans, and New York (all of which, the last I saw, were more impressive than Detroit or San Diego).  The NFC was tougher than the AFC, and I believe that being away from home impairs the Broncos more so than the Panthers (fact #22 really sticks out here).

            3. Denver’s style of play fits right into Carolina’s hands.  Manning turns over the ball a lot; the Panthers are the league’s best team at takeaways.  Denver eliminates deep passes and pressures the QB; the Panthers are a run-first offense (not exactly the strengths of Pittsburgh and New England) and Cam Newton is the best in the league at avoiding pressure.  In close games, Denver controls the clock and slows the pace down; in 6 of the 8 quarters they’ve played this postseason, Carolina has done the same thing, except with double-digit leads.  Even if you want to concede that Denver’s defense is the best in football, you also have to say that Carolina’s offense is the best.  And if you want to say that Carolina’s defense is one of the best in football, you have to also admit that Denver’s offense . . . well, isn’t.

            Teams that finished the season ranked #1 in total defense are 9-2 in Super Bowls.  Defense wins championships more so than offenses, sure.  But for Denver to win the game, Carolina is going to have to make mistakes – mistakes like missing an extra point or having your fourth-string runningback fumble or turning the ball away with seconds remaining.  Could Carolina make these devastating mistakes?  I mean, if Russell Wilson can, anyone can.  But unlike the Patriots last year, the way this Denver team wins games necessitates that such mistakes are made.  So maybe Cam Newton fumbles at the goal-line in the fourth quarter?  Maybe Graham Gano misses a 25-yard field goal?  Maybe Josh Norman has a chance to pick off Peyton Manning’s game-winning pass, but it slips through his hands?  All of those scenarios are in the cards.  But if the game is played 100 times, how often do each of those events happen?  Once?  Twice?  That still leaves 96 or 97 other scenarios.  At first I thought picking Carolina was going with my heart, but it actually seems fairly clear that it’s really going with my head.

Prediction: Carolina 37, Denver 13.

Doppelganger: Do we really have to look that far?

Special Prop Bets:

Odds that Jim Nantz’s and Peyton Manning’s shared agent will make an appearance in the booth: 3/1

Odds that Rocco and Gino will hold a “friendly one-on-one” with Nantz and Simms before the game to avoid any mention of you-know-what-banned-substance: 4/1

Odds that such a meeting isn’t necessary because they weren’t going to bring it up anyway: No bet.

Odds that representatives from Papa Johns and Nationwide will personally hand the Lombardi trophy to Peyton Manning: 5/1

Odds that Simms, Roger Goodell and Eli Manning will actually be wearing pom-poms and giggling with each other about going steady with the leader of the pack: 7/2

Odds that Nantz and Simms introduce Manning by humming “Great-est-QB-of-all-time” to the annoying “Nationwide” theme: 6/5

Odds that I will copy-paste this column and the 2013 Super Bowl preview when Newton’s Panthers and Manning’s LA Rams meet in next year’s NFC Championship Game: Even. 

Should the NFL Playoffs Expand From 12 to 14 Teams? A Year-by-Year Analysis

            As you should know by now, the National Football League currently operates the best playoff seeding system out of all the major sports: 12 total teams, consisting of four division champs, awarded #1-4 seeds on the basis of regular season win-loss records, plus two wild-card teams as #5 and #6.  Of course, there have been historical hiccups, such as this year’s NFC Wild Card game which featured a 7-win 4 seed (Carolina Panthers) and a 5 seed which not only lost five of its last seven games, but did so without scoring over 18 points in any of them. 

            But sometimes those historical hiccups have provided us with tremendous games.  The 2011 Broncos finished 8-8, were led by Tim Tebow, and had no business hosting a playoff game against the defending AFC champions . . . and the rest was history.  Same with the 2010 Seahawks and the 2008 Cardinals.  Maybe instead of saying that the NFL operates the best playoff system, it would be more accurate to say that the NFL uses the least flawed method, compared to the NBA (where more than half the league’s teams make the postseason and the playoffs last two months), the NHL (ditto), and the MLB (where homefield advantage in the World Series is determined by a meaningless, frivolous unofficial game in July).

            Anyway, for the last several months, the NFL has thrown around the idea of expanding the playoffs from 12 teams to 14.  Instead of the top two teams in each conference getting an extra week off, only the top seeded team would receive a bye, while the 2 seed would be forced to host a Wild Card game against the conference’s 7^th-seeded team.  The advantages of this system are obviously mostly monetary (this is Roger Goodell we are talking about): The NFL receives revenues from two additional playoff games, as well as hypothetically more competitive (read: must-see) games in the final weeks of the regular season.  While many defenders of this expansion laud the fact that it doesn’t really change too much about what already makes the NFL playoffs great (still fewer than half the league’s teams make the playoffs, still only four weekends of postseason football), no one really seems to be talking about why it would actually improve the playoff system.  And those who actually examine that argument in depth tend to fall in the “con” rather than “pro” camp.

Even fewer people are seriously looking at the question of whether the 7^th best team in each conference deserves to make the playoffs in the first place.  Therefore, I have broken down each season of the playoffs since the NFL readjusted its seeding system in 2002, and have determined whether the 7 seeds from each of those seasons deserved to make the playoffs.  Furthermore, I consider what their hypothetical matchup with the conference’s 2 seed would have looked like, and whether they would have had a chance of moving on to the Divisional Round.  No, I don’t use statistical analysis or metadata, but I do use a programming system more advanced than any computer: My own memory of each team.  I award subjective grades to each team on the basis of whether their playoff birth as a 7 seed was truly justified or not. If I find that more than half of the 26 7 seeds since 2002 merited a playoff appearance, I will begrudgingly agree with the commissioner and encourage playoff expansion to 14 teams.

2014

AFC 7 Seed: Houston Texans (9-7-0)

Would have played at: Denver Broncos (12-4-0)
Deserved Playoff Birth? YES
Could They Have Advanced? YES

NFC 7 Seed: Philadelphia Eagles (10-6-0)

Would have played at: Green Bay Packers (12-4-0)
Deserved Playoff Birth? NO

Let's begin our analysis with this past postseason. 2014 was one of the few years where everyone (at least, everyone who runs this website) agrees that the Patriots and Seahawks were the two best teams in their conferences, so its unlikely that the 7 seeds would have had a significant impact on the playoff outcomes. In the AFC, however, the Texans had the best player in the league (J.J. Watt) in the midst of having the best season of his career, and finished the season having won four of its final five games. One of those wins was a 12-point victory over the AFC's 6 seed, the Baltimore Ravens. Remembering how underwhelming Peyton Manning played in the latter half of the 2014 regular season and the eventual AFC Divisional matchup against the Colts (the NFL's 19th-ranked scoring defense), the Broncos would have been an optimal matchup for Houston -- and would have made for the premier game of Wild Card weekend. The Texans absolutely deserved a postseason birth. Final Grade: A

In the NFC, the Eagles stormed out to a 5-1 start before Nick Foles was injured and replaced by Mark Sanchez. The Sanchize played OK and actually had a better QB rating than Foles, but blew three straight December games for Philadelphia -- against Seattle, Dallas, and most inexcusably of all, the Washington Football Team. The 2014 Eagles also had one of the flukiest statistics of recent years: They scored eight touchdowns on defense or special teams. Tellingly, most of those touchdowns came in the first half of the season. It is tempting to believe they could have had a shot against the injured Aaron Rodgers . . . but then again, they lost to the Packers in a Week 11 game at Lambeau Stadium by a ridiculous score of 53-20. So despite the fact they won more games than the Texans, the Eagles were less deserving. Final Grade: C

2013

 

AFC 7 Seed: Pittsburgh Steelers (8-8-0)
Would have played at: New England Patriots (12-4-0)
Deserved Playoff Birth? NO

NFC 7 Seed: Arizona Cardinals (10-6-0)
Would have played at: Carolina Panthers (12-4-0)
Deserved Playoff Birth? YES
Could They Have Advanced? YES

The Steelers started the 2013 season 2-6, but finished 6-2 down the stretch, which prompted many of the initial rumblings about expanding the playoffs to 14 teams. Pittsburgh's offense played the second half of 2013 like they did for the entirety of 2014 -- mostly spectacularly, with Ben Roethlisburger, Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown being virtually unstoppable on the field. So why didn't they deserve a playoff birth (besides the fact I hate the Steelers)? Look at who they beat in those final six victories: Buffalo, Detroit, Cincinnati, Aaron Rodgers-less Green Bay, and Cleveland twice. Meanwhile, they dropped November/December games to the Patriots, Ravens, and Dolphins -- any one of which would have clinched a playoff spot under the current system. The Patriots game was particularly egregious, with the Steel Curtain defense giving up 55 points in a 24-point loss at Foxboro. And guess who they would have played in the Wild Card round? This doesn't exactly bolster their playoff credentials. Final Grade: C-

Like the Steelers, the Cardinals also finished the season white-hot, winning seven of its final games, including key wins against Indianapolis, St. Louis, and most impressive of all, in Seattle against the eventual Super Bowl champs. Had they taken care of business by beating the 49ers at home in Week 17, they would have clinched a playoff birth outright; instead, they gave up a game-winning drive to Colin Kaepernick with only 29 seconds left. That makes me think that they didn't truly deserve a playoff spot -- a true playoff team should win home games with their season on the line. But the Seahawks game was so impressive, the NFC West was so competitive in 2013, and the Cardinals had beat the 2nd-seeded Panthers by 16 points in Week 5. Arizona's home loss to the 49ers does stick out, but you know who else also lost to San Francisco at home? Carolina, in the eventual NFC Divisional Playoff. Case closed. Final Grade: B+

2012

AFC 7 Seed: Pittsburgh Steelers (8-8-0)
Would have played at: New England Patriots (12-4-0)
Deserved Playoff Birth? NO

NFC 7 Seed: Chicago Bears (10-6-0)
Would have played at: San Francisco 49ers (11-4-1)
Deserved Playoff Birth? YES
Could They Have Advanced? NO

Huh, this sounds familiar: The 8-8 Steelers as the AFC's 7 seed, having to travel to Foxboro to play the 12-4 Patriots. Don't say they NFL isn't predictable. Then again, there are some important differences between the 2013 and 2012 Steelers: While the former finished the season strong down the stretch, the 2012 team collapsed after a 6-3 start, with particularly inexcusable losses to Cleveland and at home to San Diego and Cincinnati. And the Bengals loss -- their third straight December loss -- occurred on the commemoration of the 40th anniversary of the Immaculate Reception! And while Pittsburgh did not play New England in the 2012 regular season, the Steelers finished only 3-5 on the road and had a -10 turnover ratio on the season. They did beat the eventual Super Bowl Champion Ravens in Week 13... but so did five other teams during the regular season. To merit a playoff spot as a 7 seed, you need more impressive credentials than this. Final Grade: C-

The 2012 Bears suffered one of the most remarkable collapses in NFL history: They missed the playoffs after beginning the season 7-1. Only the 1993 Dolphins -- a team which began its season 9-2 through 11 games -- suffered a more agonizing collapse in the regular season's second half. The case of the 2012 Bears begs the question of whether one of the league's best teams through the first two months of the season should be punished because of bad luck and injuries in the final two months. But here's the thing: The Bears didn't really suffer that many injuries, nor did they really have bad luck. Their final five losses (which occurred over a six-week stretch) all came at the hands of playoff teams. Had they made it into the postseason as the 7 seed, they would have traveled to Chicago -- the site of their Week 11 loss to 49ers, in which they were defeated 32-7 (ironically, it was also Colin Kaepernick's first start). Like the 2014 Eagles, the Bears scored a ton of TDs by defense and special teams (nine in total) and when that scoring began to cease, so did Chicago's winning ways. I tend to give the Bears the benefit of the doubt because 10 wins is the same number as the season's eventual Super Bowl champion (the Ravens) and because the Bears were unequivocally better than the NFC's 6 seed, the Joe Webb-led Vikings. But playoff heavyweights, Chicago was probably not. Final Grade: B-

2011

AFC 7 Seed: Tennessee Titans (9-7-0)
Would have played at: Baltimore Ravens (12-4-0)
Deserved Playoff Birth? NO

NFC 7 Seed: Chicago Bears (8-8-0)
Would have played at: San Francisco 49ers (13-3-0)
Deserved Playoff Birth? NO

The first of our "Wow, this team would have made the playoffs?" moment occurs with the 2011 Titans, a team about as unmemorable and unremarkable as any mediocre team in NFL history. The Titans won nine games primarily as a result of having the league's third-easiest schedule in 2011, playing in a division sans Peyton Manning for the first time in 14 years, and a meaningless Week 17 win against the Houston Texans' subs. The Titans didn't boast a single Pro Bowler, altered between 36-year-old Matt Hasselbeck and rookie Jake Locker at QB, and even Chris Johnson barely cracked 1,000 yards. Intriguingly, they did somehow manage to beat the Ravens during the regular season . . . in a Week 2 game in Nashville. The 2011 Titans are Exhibit A in the argument to retain the current NFL Playoff format at 12 teams. Final Grade: F

Once again, the Bears, like the Steelers, were left on the outside looking in. They were a talented defensive-minded team that played in the same division as two of 2011's best offenses (Green Bay and Detroit) and they did beat the Lions by 24 in Week 10. But after a 7-3 start under Jay Cutler, Chicago collapsed down the stretch (sounds familiar?) after Cutler's season-ending thumb injury. Under Caleb Hanie and Josh McCown, Chicago lost five straight games in the month of December, with its offense averaging 13 points per game. Had they made the playoffs in 2011, they would have probably looked similar to the 2014 Cardinals -- a strong defense undermined by an atrocious offense -- and their playoff fortunes would have resembled the 2014 Cardinals too. Final Grade: D

2010

AFC 7 Seed: San Diego Chargers (9-7-0)
Would have played at: Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4-0)
Deserved Playoff Birth? YES
Could They Have Advanced? YES Probably not

NFC 7 Seed: New York Giants (10-6-0)
Would have played at: Chicago Bears (11-5-0)
Deserved Playoff Birth? YES
Could They Have Advanced? YES

2010 is probably the strongest historical case for opening the NFL's playoff field to 14 teams. In the AFC, the San Diego Chargers accomplished an amazing feat no other team had achieved in a 16-game regular season: They finished #1 in offense and defense in terms of yardage. Philip Rivers led the league in passing yards, and in the Bolts' first season without LaDanian Tomlinson, San Diego still finished third in rushing touchdowns. They finished second in the league in sacks (47) and allowed the fewest first downs. So how did they muster only nine wins? They had horrible special teams (bottom-five in both punt and kickoff return yardage surrendered), had a -6 turnover ratio, and could not overcome a 2-5 start. They lost the AFC West title to the Matt Cassel-led Chiefs(!). Yikes. Still, the yardage statistic lends me to believe they could have kept pace with any team in the league. They would have faced a tremendously tough challenge in Pittsburgh, the #1 defense in points allowed and the eventual AFC Champions. It's worth remembering that between 1995 and 2012, San Diego was 0-6 in games played in Pittsburgh, so while the upset is a promising thought, realistically it would have been unlikely. Final Grade: B+

We all know about the 2010 Giants -- even if you have no recollection of 15 of the 16 games they played. The only relevant game came in Week 15 at home. You know the scenario. After blowing a 21-point 4th quarter lead, there's 14 seconds left, 4th down for the Giants, Desean Jackson to return the punt. The rest is history. What's less remembered is that New York finished with the same win total (10) as Philadelphia, but lost the tiebreaker due to that game. Like the Chargers, the 2010 Giants finished in the top ten of both offense and defense, led the league in takeaways (42), and were only one season away from winning their second title in five years. But like the 2013 Cardinals, playoff teams don't blow 21-point leads at home with the playoffs on the line. Still, 10 wins is still undeniable, particularly since it's the same total as the eventual Super Bowl champion Packers (as well as the 10-win Buccaneers, another team that somehow missed the playoffs). They would have had a very realistic shot against the Bears -- a team they beat by two touchdowns in the regular season -- but perhaps an event like the Desean Jackson punt is devastating enough to quell any momentum you would have had going into the postseason. As a Patriots fan, I often ponder the question: If only the Giants had finished out of the playoffs in 2011...  Final Grade: A-

2009

AFC 7 Seed: Houston Texans (9-7-0)
Would have played at: San Diego Chargers (13-3-0)
Deserved Playoff Birth? NO

NFC 7 Seed: Atlanta Falcons (9-7-0)
Would have played at: Minnesota Vikings (12-4-0)
Deserved Playoff Birth? NO

It's hard to believe that either of the 7 seeds would have caused major disruption in the 2009 playoffs -- a postseason which saw two #1 seeds reach the Super Bowl for the first time in 16 seasons. In the AFC, the Texans benefited from the AFC's second easiest schedule (behind the Chargers) and beat only two teams with a winning record all season. One of those games was in Week 17 when the Texans defeated the Patriots -- an inexplicable game where the Patriots starters played the first three quarters, New England built a 14 point lead, and blew it when the subs came in (it was also the game where Wes Welker was injured for the playoffs, a particularly hard pill to swallow since it was a meaningless game for New England). That makes me believe the Texans were really an 8-8 team, which is appropriate since their offense was spectacular and their defense stunk. Still, the Texans did win four straight to end the season and played the AFC Champion Colts respectably in both games. It's a close call -- especially because the Schaub-to-Johnson passing connection was at its apex -- but since the Texans didn't really demonstrate in the regular season they could stack up against more talented teams, I can't really merit a playoff birth. Final Grade: C

The Falcons made the playoffs in every season from 2008-2012, except for 2009. Like the Texans, they were mediocre team who played the NFC (and Super Bowl) Champion Saints respectably, but unlike the Texans, the Falcons had a very tough schedule -- third toughest in the league, in fact. They were 6-7 before finishing with three straight wins. But by that point of the season, Michael Turner was lost to an ankle injury, and the Falcons had only beat one team with a winning record all season. Remembering the Falcons playoff record in the Smith/Ryan era (1-4), it's hard for me to believe they could have gone into Minnesota and given Brett Favre and Adrian Peterson a serious challenge -- particularly since the 12-4 Cowboys lost by 31 to the Vikes in the Divisional Round and we all remember how close they were to beating the Saints in New Orleans. Like many of the teams so far on this list, the 2009 Falcons were a good team, but an even better argument as to why 14 teams in the playoffs is two too many. Final Grade: D+

2008

AFC 7 Seed: New England Patriots (11-5-0)
Would have played at: Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4-0)
Deserved Playoff Birth? HELL YEAH
Could They Have Advanced? UH...

NFC 7 Seed: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7-0)
Would have played at: Carolina Panthers (12-4-0)
Deserved Playoff Birth? YES
Could They Have Advanced? YES

2008 was one of the flukiest years in NFL history: Tom Brady lost for the season after 7 minutes, Brett Favre on the Jets, Kerry Collins leading the Titans to a 1 seed, the Broncos blowing a three game division lead with three weeks remaining, and the Arizona Cardinals coming within two minutes of winning the Super Bowl. And then there's the 2008 Patriots, one of only two teams to win 11 games and miss the playoffs (the other was the 1986 Broncos). Sure, they didn't have Tom Brady, but Matt Cassel exceeded all expectations as his replacement, leading a top-five offense with four straight December wins. Their late season surge was capped by a 40-point win over the eventual NFC Champion Cardinals in Week 16. There's almost no question that any 11-win team merits a playoff spot (for the sake of argument, just ignore the 2014 Cardinals). Unfortunately, the 2008 Patriots would have gotten a bad draw with Pittsburgh, the eventual Super Bowl champions and a team which annihilated the Pats by 23 in Foxboro in Week 13. More bad luck for the unluckiest team in NFL history. Final Grade: A

The 2008 NFC Championship game featured two nine-win teams (the Cardinals and Eagles), so it's understandable to believe the Bucs could have been competitive in the postseason. In Jon Gruden's final season as coach, Tampa Bay was the exact opposite of the Patriots, finishing the season with four straight losses after a 9-3 start. But they played in a division where all four teams finished .500 or above, and of course played strong defense all season. They would have played the Panthers, who the Bucs had split their season series with; but of course this was the same Carolina team that ultimately did lose their home playoff game to a 9-win team they had defeated earlier in the season. In most other years, the 2008 Buccaneers would have gone unnoticed as just another mediocre near-.500 team that would have been overmatched in the postseason, but given the wacky circumstances of 2008, I suppose anything could have been possible. Final Grade: B

2007

        AFC 7 Seed: Cleveland Browns (10-6-0)

Would have played at: Indianapolis Colts (13-3-0)
Deserved Playoff Birth? YES
Could They Have Advanced? NO

NFC 7 Seed: Minnesota Vikings (8-8-0)
Would have played at: Green Bay Packers (13-3-0)
Deserved Playoff Birth? NO

The Browns were certainly a sentimental darling in 2007, but beneath the facade, did a Derek Anderson-led, Romeo Crennel-coach team truly merit a playoff appearance? Anderson undoubtedly enjoyed his best season as a starter, with Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow combining for 2,400 yards and 16 touchdowns, and Jamal Lewis enjoyed a superb comeback season. But five of the Browns' six losses came on the road, including an inexcusable Week 16 loss in Cincinnati which would have wrapped up a playoff birth, if not the AFC North division (won by 10-win Pittsburgh, who beat the Browns twice). Those losses hurt. The Browns had a pretty easy schedule and really only had one impressive victory all season -- an overtime victory against the Seahawks. I give them the benefit of the doubt because the AFC's 6 seed (Tennessee) wasn't significantly better than the Browns and because 10 wins is the most the Browns have had in any season since 1994. Really, it's just another case of bad luck for the city of Cleveland. Although I don't think they would have been a serious threat to the Patriots or Colts, I can't really imagine any NFL fan in 2007 feeling happy that a 10-win Browns team failed to make the postseason. Final Grade: B

The 2007 Vikings were an unremarkable team except for its running game: They led the league in rushing yards, and gave up the fewest rushing yards to opponents. 296 of Minnesota's rushing yards came courtesy of Adrian Peterson's record-breaking performance against the Chargers in Week 9. They also had an extremely impressive game against the eventual Super Bowl champion Giants in Week 12, when they won in the Meadowlands 41-17. Still, Tavaris Jackson was horrific at quarterback, the passing defense was statistically the league's worst, and they dropped their Week 16 home matchup to the Redskins -- the team which eventually clinched the NFC's 6 seed. Like I've repeated throughout this article, true playoff teams don't blow home games in the final weeks of the regular season when the playoffs are on the line. It's hard to imagine rewarding the Vikings with a playoff birth as a reward for their subpar play in the season's final weeks. This is the kind of scenario I worry about if the league does expand to 14 playoff teams. Additionally, as 7 seed they would have traveled to Green Bay, where they lost 34-0 earlier in the season. Thus, unfortunately for long-suffering Vikings fans, this one's a pretty easy call. Final Grade: D-

2006

AFC 7 Seed: Denver Broncos (9-7-0)
Would have played at: Baltimore Ravens (13-3-0)
Deserved Playoff Birth? NO
Could They Have Advanced? YES*

NFC 7 Seed: Green Bay Packers (8-8-0)
Would have played at: New Orleans Saints (10-6-0)
Deserved Playoff Birth? NO
Could They Have Advanced? NO

Like many teams on this list, the 2006 Broncos was a tale of two seasons: One which saw Denver shoot out to a 7-3 start with impressive wins at New England and Pittsburgh, and the other when they decided to bench Jake Plummer and start rookie Jay Cutler in his place, with the Broncos subsequently finishing 2-4 down the stretch. Oddly enough, I don't recall many Broncos fans being upset with that decision; 32-year-old Plummer definitely had a "ceiling" fans knew he could not get past, and his subpar stats (11 TDs, 13 Ints, 55% completions) demonstrated that Denver was winning in spite of him rather than because of him. Strangely, when Cutler took the helm at QB and the offense dramatically improved, the defense declined; it was also the tough part of Denver's schedule. Still, all the 9-6 Broncos needed to do Week 17 was beat the lowly 49ers at home. Favored by 10 points, they lost in overtime, enabling the 9-7 Chiefs to take what should have been their 6 seed. Thus, the 2006 Broncos represent a quirky anomaly on this list: A team which did not deserve to make the playoffs, but had they done so, could have proved competitive -- especially against a Ravens team which only mustered 6 points at home to the Colts. Final Grade: C

Coming off a 4-12 season in 2005, the 2006 Packers started the season 1-4 and 4-8 before eventually winning their final four games. Three of those games came against sub-.500 teams and the fourth came against the NFC's top-seeded Bears in Week 17, a game in which Chicago spent most of the time resting its starters (and yet somehow Rex Grossman managed to throw three interceptions). So far in this article, I've been highly skeptical of awarding a "YES" grade to 8-8 teams clinching a 7 seed, and the 2006 Packers are no different. They finished the season nicely, and maybe even offered a preview of their much more successful 2007 campaign, but Green Bay had no impressive wins on the season, turned the ball over a lot (Favre had 18 TDs and 18 Ints) and were the product of one of the weakest-ever seasons in the NFC. Final Grade: D-

2005

AFC 7 Seed: Kansas City Chiefs (10-6-0)
Would have played at: Denver Broncos (13-3-0)
Deserved Playoff Birth? YES
Could They Have Advanced? PROBABLY NOT

NFC 7 Seed: Minnesota Vikings (9-7-0)
Would have played at: Chicago Bears (11-5-0)
Deserved Playoff Birth? NO

Like the 2007 Vikings and 2006 Rams, the 2005 Chiefs were led by a powerful young runningback who carried his team on his back in the season's final games. But like the 2007 Browns, the Chiefs played poorly on the road (where five of its six losses occurred) and played in a season where 10 wins simply was not enough. But if you watched football in 2005, you probably remember how unprecedented and dominant Larry Johnson was; in the nine games he started as a replacement for the injured Priest Holmes, Johnson ran wild for 1,351 yards and 16 TDs. In nine games. Kansas City did lose three games during that stretch -- all on the road -- but it's hard to believe that anyone in the AFC would have wanted to face the Chiefs as a 7 seed. KC would have traveled to Denver, who Johnson torched for 140 yards in Week 12, but who also went 8-0 during the regular season and owned the league's second-best rush defense. That would have been a great game. The Chiefs didn't play particularly great defense that season so I suspect Denver probably would have had the edge, but this would have been a scenario when seven playoff teams would have been fun. It's also worth remembering that Kansas City's win total matched the Super Bowl Champion Steelers'.  Final Grade: A

The 2005 Minnesota Vikings are remembered for one thing: the Love Boat Scandal. What no one remembers is that once the air was finally cleared after a 2-5 start, the Vikes actually played really well, finishing 7-2 with Brad Johnson taking over Daunte Culpepper's job at QB. No Randy Moss, no Fred Smoot, no Moe Williams. Go figure. They actually finished one game better than their historically great offensive team of the year before. To me, however, the 2006 Vikings are not a whole lot different than the 2006 Packers: They quietly rebounded after an uncharacteristically weak start, didn't really beat anyone all that impressive until beating up on division champion Chicago in a meaningless Week 17 game. The Vikes did have a six-game winning streak which did feature a commendable Week 10 win against the NFC East champion Giants at the Meadowlands. I suppose the best thing you could say about them is that they were the ultimate Tyson Zone team, while the worst thing you could say is they got what they deserved: Staying home in January. Final Grade: D+

2004

AFC 7 Seed: Jacksonville Jaguars (9-7-0)
Would have played at: New England Patriots (14-2-0)
Deserved Playoff Birth? NO

NFC 7 Seed: New Orleans Saints (8-8-0)
Would have played at: Atlanta Falcons (11-5-0)
Deserved Playoff Birth? NO

The 2004 Jaguars were mediocre in virtually every respect and only had three victories over teams with winning records: Two occurred in the first two weeks of the season, and the third was a massive upset over the Colts in Indianapolis in Week 7. They rallied in the final four games of the season, winning three of its final four, but its one loss during that stretch was costly: An inexcusable Week 16 21-0 shutout at home at the hands of David Carr and the Texans -- their second loss of the season to Houston. All they needed to clinch a playoff birth was a home victory over David Carr, and they couldn't score a point? The Jaguars were a competitive, defensively sound team during the Jack Del Rio era and even won a playoff game in 2007. The 2004 season showed the promise of things to come (they finished 12-4 next season), but by no means did they deserve a trip to New England to be annihilated by the eventual Super Bowl champs. Final Grade: D-

The Saints started 2004 with a 4-8 record until winning their final four games, capped off by a victory over the NFC South champion Falcons, who were resting Michael Vick for the playoffs. They lost every game they were supposed to lose, won most of the games they were supposed to win, went 1-5 against playoff teams with their starters intact, and were largely the beneficiaries of an extremely weak NFC. How weak? Had the Saints made the playoffs, they would have been the third 8-8 team from the NFC to clinch a playoff birth. Even more dumbfounding was the fact that both of those 8-8 teams (the Vikings and Rams) won their Wild Card playoff games. Does that mean the Saints had a chance of going into Atlanta and putting up a fight against the Falcons? Maybe. But that doesn't mean they deserved to be in the playoffs in the first place. Final Grade: D

2003

AFC 7 Seed: Miami Dolphins (10-6-0)
Would have played at: Kansas City Chiefs (13-3-0)
Deserved Playoff Birth? YES
Could They Have Advanced? NO

NFC 7 Seed: Minnesota Vikings (9-7-0)
Would have played at: St. Louis Rams (12-4-0)
Deserved Playoff Birth? NO

You could have made the case that the Dolphins had one of the NFL's two or three best defenses in 2003. They held eight of its opponents to 12 points or fewer. All but one of Miami's losses came to teams with 12 or more wins, and all but two of its losses were by a touchdown or less. They took the 14-2 Patriots to overtime. They went 6-2 on the road, and had the league's best runningback (Ricky Williams) and linebacker (Zach Thomas). They should have made the playoffs. But they did not, due mostly to their weak passing game and 34 turnovers on the season. It's possible that Miami's defense would have been talented enough to slow down the Chiefs -- a team which lost its Divisional Round game -- but their sluggish offense (which scored 28 points or more only once) would have been its Achilles' heel. They deserved to be in the postseason, but I don't exactly lose sleep thinking about the possibilities of Jay Fiedler in January. Final Grade: B+

Question: Name the only NFL team since 1990 to start 6-0 and miss the playoffs. The answer? You guessed it -- the 2003 Vikings, a team probably talented enough to contend with Marc Bulger's Rams and Quincy Carter's Cowboys, but whose stunning collapse made their case for a playoff birth fairly indefensible. The 2003 Vikings were somewhat the football equivalent of the 2011 Red Sox -- a team that gave up a ton of points and could only win games when their offense could manage to score a few more points. And then it culminated in one of the more improbable single-game collapses in sports history: The last second TD pass from Josh McCown to Nate Poole (and the second appearance on this list by the inimitable voice of Paul Allen). But if we're being honest here, Minnesota didn't even deserve to be that close to a playoff birth, having finished the season 3-7 and losing its final four road games. The stats look pretty, to be sure; but in a 14-team playoff, we lose the unbelievable impact of that Nate Poole YouTube clip forever. Final Grade: D

2002

AFC 7 Seed: Miami Dolphins (9-7-0)

Would have played at: Tennessee Titans (11-5-0)
Deserved Playoff Birth? NO

NFC 7 Seed: New Orleans Saints (9-7-0)

Would have played at: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (12-4-0)
Deserved Playoff Birth? NO

Basically, the same story with the 2002 Dolphins as with the '03 team: Strong defense, great running game, competitive division (no AFC East team finished under .500), and complete and utter ineptitude on the road. The Dolphins went 2-6 away from home which included losses in its final two games, three-point defeats at the hands of the Vikings and Patriots. If they had played all their games at home, the Dolphins would have been a surefire Super Bowl contender -- they had impressive victories over the Jets, Patriots, and AFC Champion Raiders. But the last I checked, 7 seeds would not receive the luxury of homefield advantage. Once again, no sleep lost here. Final Grade: C-

The 2002 Saints were a different story. Possessing arguably the league's most explosive offense, the Saints leaped to a 6-1 start, possessed a 9-4 record heading into December with the 1 and 2 seeds still in play, and promptly lost its final three games. Amazingly, they swept their season series with the eventual Super Bowl Champion Buccaneers, the same team they would have hypothetically matched up with in the Wild Card round. That sounds intriguing on paper, but once again, we're faced with the question of whether a team that suffered a second half collapse should have been rewarded by backing into the postseason. New Orleans blew three straight games, any one of which could have granted them the 6 seed. Instead, the Falcons earned the playoff spot -- a Falcons team which swept the Saints. A rematch with the Buccaneers would have undoubtedly been interesting, but in all likelihood would not have changed the playoff results. Final Grade: C+ 

FINAL VERDICT 

So for those of you keeping track at home, I concluded that only 10 of the 26 7-seeds merited a playoff birth. And of those 10 teams, only four of them had a reasonable chance of advancing, although it may be worth noting that all four of them occurred within the last seven years. And out of those four teams, I don't really believe any of them could have seriously advanced to the Super Bowl. But of course, there's more than just "likelihood": The extra playoff game between the 2 and 7 seeds could have seen season-ending injuries during the games, like Carson Palmer's or Rob Gronkowski's. It could have motivated previously stagnant teams to go on deep playoff runs and play their best football of the season. As an NFL fan, I can't help but wonder if we could have seen another Music City Miracle or Jacoby Jones catch in those nonexistent games (and as a Patriots fan, I'm still bitter about that 2008 team). And it is perhaps significant that none of the 26 teams on this list finished worse than .500.

But conversely, if 10 of those teams deserved a playoff spot, that means 16 of them did not. For every 2008 Patriots and 2010 Giants, there's an '02 Dolphins, '05 Vikings, and '09 Falcons lurking in the distance. Additionally, teams seeded second which won the Super Bowl (such as the 2002 Buccaneers, 2004 Patriots and 2008 Steelers) would have been forced to play an extra game in exchange for surrendering an extra week of rest. And while the NFL playoffs have certainly had its share of unpredictability and upsets featuring lower-seeded teams, the arguments I presented here honestly don't do a whole lot in convincing me that a 14-team playoff is the optimal direction for the league to go in. Of course, the opinions above are not written in the language of dollars and cents, but as a fan who knows that nothing in sports is better than the current format of the NFL playoffs.

Thoughts? Disagreements? Write them in the comments below!