In honor of the 50th anniversary of the nation's greatest sporting spectacle not on pay-per-view, here are 50 amazing facts about Super Bowl 50 (not Super Bowl L, you dummy):
1.
The 2015 Broncos scored 355 points and allowed 296 points. Amazingly, the 1973 Broncos scored 354 points
and allowed 296 points. The 2015 Broncos
went 12-4 and made the Super Bowl; the 1973 Broncos went 7-5-2 and missed the
playoffs.
2.
Just in case you forgot, the 1973 Broncos scored 354 points in 14 games, while
it took the 2015 Broncos 16 games to reach that mark.
3.
In 2015, 39-year-old Broncos QB Peyton Manning threw for 2,249 yards, 9
touchdowns and 17 interceptions. In 1973, 35-year-old Broncos QB Charley
Johnson threw for 2,465 yards, 20 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions. Manning
finished 27th in the NFL in pass yards; Johnson finished 3rd.
4.
Between Manning and Brock Osweiler, Broncos quarterbacks combined for 23
interceptions, the worst in the league.
5.
Since 1990, 85 NFL teams have thrown 23 interceptions in a single season. Of
those 85, only 11 made the playoffs.
6.
The combined playoff records of those previous 10 teams before the 2015
Broncos: 2-10. None of those teams ever made
it past the divisional round.
7.
The 2015 Broncos committed 31 turnovers.
In the past 30 years, only one team (the 1999 Rams) committed 31
turnovers and won the Super Bowl.
8.
The Broncos joined the 4-12 Cowboys and 5-11 49ers in being the only teams in
the league which never scored more than 31 points in a game all season.
9.
In the last 25 years, every Super Bowl team has scored over 31 points during
the season at least once.
10.
Week 1, the Ravens had the football at the Denver 16 yard line with 36 seconds
left. Joe Flacco threw a pass to the end
zone that was intercepted by Darian Stewart.
Denver won 19-13.
11. Week 2, the Chiefs led Denver by 7 with 40 seconds left. The Broncos scored a touchdown, kicked off,
and scored off a Jamaal Charles fumble at the 20 yard line. Denver won 31-24.
12.
In the fourth quarter of Week 4, Teddy Bridgewater completed 11 of 13 passes for
127 yards and Adrian Peterson ran for 47 yards and a touchdown. Down by 3, the Vikings had the ball at their
own 47 with 35 seconds left when Bridgewater was stripped-sacked. Denver won 23-20.
13. Week 6, the Raiders gained 139 yards in the fourth
quarter (the Broncos gained only 30), but lost when David Carr’s pass was
intercepted and returned 74 yards for a touchdown by Chris Harris. Denver won 16-10.
14.
Week 7, the Browns trailed the Broncos by 3 and had a first down at the Denver
11 with 1:47 left. They kicked a field
goal to tie the game. Miraculously, they
got the ball back in Denver territory with 53 seconds remaining, until Josh
McCown threw an interception. In
overtime, they had a first down at the Denver 39. The plays that followed: A run for a 3 yard
loss, an 8-yard sack, a 2-yard sack, and a 5-yard delay of game penalty. Denver won in overtime 26-23.
15. Week 11, the Bears trailed 17-9 and scored a touchdown with 29 seconds left. The 2-point conversion failed. The Broncos won 17-15 in a game where they
punted 7 times.
16.
Week 12, the Patriots led 21-7 in the fourth quarter and were getting the ball
back. Chris Harper, a backup signed off
the practice squad, fumbled the punt return. After Dont’a Hightower and Rob Gronkowski were
knocked out of the game, the Broncos won 30-24 in overtime.
17. Week 16, the Bengals, led by A.J. McCarron,
had a 14-0 lead 29 minutes into the game before they collapsed in the second
half. Although the Broncos had a fumble
and missed field goal in the fourth quarter, they still won 20-17 in overtime.
18. Week 17, the 4-11 Chargers forced 5 turnovers
and led by 3 points with 10 minutes left. San
Diego scored only scored 10 points off the 5 Denver turnovers. The Broncos won 27-20.
19. In the AFC Divisional Round, the Steelers played
without their top two runningbacks and its top wide receiver. Pittsburgh led by
4 in the fourth quarter and was driving in Denver territory until fourth-string
runningback Fitzgerald Toussaint fumbled. The Broncos won 23-16 in a game where
they didn’t score a touchdown in the first 57 minutes of play.
20.
In the AFC Championship Game, the Patriots had the ball inside the Denver 20
yard line on three separate drives. Denver punted 9 times and was outgained by
92 yards and 8 first downs. The Broncos
won 20-18.
21.
Just to review, that’s 11 victories that Denver easily could have (and in many
cases, deserved to have) blown. Including
the playoffs, the Broncos went 11-3 in games decided by a touchdown or less –
the most close wins ever by a Super Bowl team.
By contrast, the 2015 Giants and Ravens went a combined 8-15 in such
games.
22.
Combined record of Denver’s opponents away from home in 2015: 56-72. The Broncos played only two games away from
home against opponents with winning records: Kansas City (the Jamaal Charles
fumble) and Pittsburgh (a game they lost 34-27).
23. Excluding
playoffs, total first downs surrendered to home opponents: 118. Total first downs surrendered to road
opponents: 171.
24.
The combined QB rating of the Broncos quarterbacks (76.3) was worse than the
combined QB rating of all the quarterbacks Denver faced (78.8). The other teams which fared the same (along
with their records): Minnesota (11-5), Indianapolis (8-8), Philadelphia (7-9),
St. Louis (7-9), New York Giants (6-10), Chicago (6-10), San Francisco (5-11),
Baltimore (5-11), Jacksonville (5-11), Dallas (4-12), Tennessee (3-13),
Cleveland (3-13).
25.
The last quarterback to win a Super Bowl after a season in which he threw more
interceptions than touchdowns? Len
Dawson in 1969. Dawson was also the last QB to win a Super
Bowl after throwing under 10 TDs for the season (min. 3 starts). Yes, those last two stats include Brad
Johnson and Trent Dilfer.
26.
The 2015 Panthers won 15 regular season games, only the 7th such NFL
team ever to do so. No 15-1 team has ever lost a Super Bowl.
27.
Week 2, Carolina led Houston 24-10 with 7:00 remaining the fourth quarter. Carolina won 24-17.
28.
Week 3, Carolina led New Orleans 27-16 with 5:00 remaining in the fourth quarter. Carolina won 27-22.
29.
Week 4, Carolina led Tampa Bay 37-17 with 1:00 remaining in the fourth
quarter. Carolina won 37-23.
30.
Week 8, Carolina led Indianapolis 23-6 with 8:00 remaining in the fourth
quarter. Carolina won 26-23 in overtime.
31.
Week 9, Carolina led Green Bay 37-14 with 8:00 remaining in the fourth
quarter. Carolina won 37-29.
32.
Week 11, Carolina led Washington 44-14 with 1:00 remaining in the fourth
quarter. Carolina won 44-16.
33. Week 12, Carolina led Dallas 33-6 with 5:00 remaining in the fourth quarter.
Carolina won 33-14.
34.
Week 16, Carolina led New York 35-21 with 6:00 remaining in the fourth
quarter. Carolina won 38-35.
35.
In the NFC Divisional Round, Carolina led Seattle 31-14 with 7:00 remaining in the
fourth quarter. Carolina won 31-24.
36. Considering
all the meaningless fourth quarter points given up, it’s reasonable to say that
of the 308 points Carolina surrendered on the season, 75 of them (24.4%) came
in garbage time (this excludes the playoffs).
37.
OK, OK, you Peyton apologists: Some of those games (such as Indianapolis, Green
Bay, and New York) were admittedly not truly garbage time points because the
opponent actually came back and put Carolina’s win at least temporarily in some
degree of doubt. But even if you take
out those three games, that’s still 29 garbage time points on the season.
Denver’s supposedly “vastly superior” defense gave up 296 total points in 2015;
Carolina’s gave up 308. Do the math.
38.
Carolina gets an unfair reputation for playing an easy schedule. In reality, they defeated Seattle twice, beat
Arizona by 34 points, scored 37 points against the Packers, beat playoff teams
in Washington and Houston, and defeated the Cowboys on Thanksgiving with a
healthy Romo starting (but not finishing).
39.
One more tidbit about Carolina’s unfairly-criticized schedule: Through the
first eight weeks, the Panthers only won one game by 14 or more points. In their ten games since then, they’ve had
six victories by 14+ points.
40.
Carolina was 6-0 in games against Super Bowl-winning QBs. Three of those wins came on the road. Denver went 5-1 in games against Super
Bowl-winning QBs, but all five of those wins were at home. The sole loss (against Pittsburgh) came on
the road.
41. This
season, 23 defensive players had 4 or more interceptions. Four of them were Panthers (Kurt Coleman,
Thomas Davis, Luke Kuechly, Josh Norman).
By contrast, Denver’s leader in interceptions was Aqib Talib, with 3.
42.
Carolina rushed for 144 yards against Seattle in the NFC Divisional Round. That was the most rush yards allowed by the
Seahawks’ defense in 27 games – since November 16, 2014, when they gave up 190
to the Chiefs. Going into the game, Russell Wilson had never faced a deficit
larger than 21 points. Carolina jumped
out to a 31-point lead 24 minutes into the game.
43.
Carolina’s 49-15 win over Arizona in the NFC Championship Game was, according to Football
Outsiders’ DVOA metric, the 8th most dominant single-game
performance by a team in NFL history.
DVOA ranks it as the 2nd most dominant playoff performance
ever, behind San Francisco’s 44-3 walloping of the Giants in
1994.
44.
That was Phil Simms’ final game as an NFL QB.
Sorry, just had to throw that in there.
45. One
more thing regarding DVOA: According to the metric, Denver is coming off wins
over the 7th and 6th best teams, respectively. Carolina is coming off victories over the 1st
and 5th ranked teams, respectively.
46.
As a team, Carolina has rushed for 100+ yards in 31 consecutive games, dating
back to Week 5 of 2014. Denver did go 5-2 in games allowing over 100 yards
rushing this season, but all five of those wins were the bullshit-style wins
aforementioned in #10-18 on this list.
47.
Since December 1, 2014, the Panthers have gone 22-2. They have a +31 turnover margin over that
span.
48.
Since December 1, 2014, Cam Newton and Steph Curry have combined for 136 wins,
24 losses, and one championship (for now).
49.
Since 2011 (Cam’s first season on the Panthers), Carolina leads the NFL in
rushing touchdowns win 90, ranks 3rd in total rushing yards, 4th
in yards per rush, and 7th in total wins – not bad for a team that
has had only two winning seasons in five years.
50. Cam
Newton has thrown for over 340 yards only three times: His first (422 yards), second
(432 yards), and fourth starts (374 yards) as an NFL quarterback.
All
right, so that last fact doesn’t really supply a meaningful case for which team will win Super Bowl 50, but it’s still an amazing and quirky stat. Cam’s most prolific passing days occurred
when he was at his most raw and inexperienced.
How many other successful quarterbacks can you say that about? By contrast, Peyton Manning’s greatest
passing day (479 yards in a 2014 win over Arizona) came on his 244th
regular-season start, in the middle of his 16th season. And it’s the same case across the board: Tom
Brady’s best passing day (517 yards) occurred on his 146th game, Ben
Roethlisberger’s (522 yards) on his 151st game, and Eli Manning’s
(510 yards) on his 123rd.
Of
course, Cam has a much smaller sample size (78 regular season and 5 playoff
games) and his transformation into a (somewhat) more conventional pocket passer
has been well-documented. Whatever he did in the offseason prior to 2015
to elevate his game, it has worked; going into the season, he had a win-loss
record under .500, only one playoff win (over Ryan Lindlay) and a lifetime QB
rating of 85.2. In 2015, he was the
presumptive league MVP and it wasn’t even close. But the (correct) question on everyone’s minds
is: How will he perform on the game’s biggest stage against the league’s best
defense?
Obviously,
after reading those 50 facts, you should have some coherent idea about where I
stand on this game. But it’s also true
that I tend to choose games with my heart rather than my brain; three weeks ago, right after the Steelers and Seahawks pulled out unbelievable
wins at the last second, I was ready to send everything to hell and proclaim
another disastrous Denver-Seattle Super Bowl.
But one week later, the Patriots restored my confidence and I thought they were a
lock to beat Denver. I purposefully
overlooked Brady’s shaky record in Denver and Manning’s ability to play well at
home in sunny weather after two months of rest and sustenance courtesy of Rocco and Gino.
I have a rooting interest in this
game and it is the Carolina Panthers, a franchise I’ve been rooting for since
the days of Steve Beuerlein and Tim Biakabutuka. I even felt a little
sad after my team beat them in the Super Bowl 12 years ago
and unless they were playing the Patriots or Saints, I can’t really remember
any games I ever rooted against them. So
let’s forget about my heart (or my brain) for a second, and play a game of “worst-case
scenario.” Let’s try to imagine the hypothetical circumstances enabling the Broncos to win Super Bowl 50:
First, Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware
will have to dominate the Panthers’ offensive line, particularly on the
outside, where tackles Michael Oher and Mike Remmers may be vulnerable. Of course they had little difficulty doing
that against the Patriots, but if they are able to beat the tackles, the
Broncos’ pass rush also must cover the middle of the field in order to prevent plays
like this from
happening. Denver was successful two
weeks ago because Wade Phillips never blitzed, which is something they’ll have
to continue to do in the Super Bowl since the Panthers have a quarterback who isn’t
exactly intimidated by blitzes.
The
Denver secondary will also have to eliminate downfield passes, which of course
they were also very good at this season.
It’s not unthinkable to believe that Aqib Talib, Chris Harris, and T.J.
Ward can capably cover the likes of Greg Olson, Philly Brown, and Ted Ginn (who
may not even require too much coverage due to his fairly egregious drop rate). Forcing the Panthers into third-and-longs and
eliminating long completions or scrambles is a great gameplan for the Broncos,
and again, it’s not inconceivable that they could do this. Denver was middle-of-the-pack when it came to
picking off passes, but remember that the Broncos 14-1 (including the playoffs)
when forcing at least one takeaway.
The problem comes when you try to
draw up a best-case scenario for the Denver offense. It’s a given that Manning must be
turnover-free and perhaps get some assistance from calls (or no calls) on the
field. The Broncos will need Emmanuel
Sanders and Demaryius Thomas to have serious YAC (yards after catch) numbers,
which could be possible if Manning targets the receiver not covered by Josh
Norman; Robert McClain, filling in for an injured Peanut Tillman, has looked
shaky at times this postseason. Denver
hasn’t been great running the ball in the last two games, but C.J. Anderson has
broken off a couple of 30-yard runs which put the Broncos in field goal range
in both games. You have to wonder about
the health of Thomas Davis and Jared Allen, and if Carolina opts to send a
blitz against Manning, perhaps the offensive line can give him or Anderson
enough time to burn the linebackers.
The issue is that even if the
Broncos play well on offense, they probably won’t score more than 20-24
points. Defenses know that Manning
cannot throw the ball more than 15 yards or escape from pressure, and they also
know that the Broncos’ conservative gameplan calls more for clock management
and field position than explosiveness.
The best case scenario for the Broncos is that they take an early lead,
preferably 7-0 or 10-0. This eliminates
pressure to pick up yardage and can enable Anderson and Ronnie Hillman to run out
the clock. Denver’s special teams have
quietly been strong too, so keeping the Panthers inside their own 20 yard line
(like they did so often against the Patriots) will be of paramount importance. If the Broncos make it a game of field
position, eliminate Cam’s comfort in the pocket, and benefit from some timely magic from the
Sheriff, they can win the game. They’re
certainly the healthier team, the more experienced team, and just beat two
quarterbacks who combined for six titles.
And let’s not forget who’s announcing.
Writing this, it admittedly makes me feel a
little uneasy about the “surefire” prediction that Carolina will beat
Denver. Haven’t we seen the Broncos
execute this exact gameplan all season?
After all, as the 2003-2004 Patriots famously demonstrated, winning
games in the clutch is a more important skill than winning blowouts. But after thinking about it, there are three
main reasons I still like the Panthers:
1. Denver hasn’t faced a quarterback
like Cam Newton all season. In fact, the
best rushing quarterbacks they squared off against were Andrew Luck and Alex
Smith – in games the Broncos both lost.
On top of this, it’s virtually impossible to gameplan against Cam Newton
because (recalling stat #47) no one in
the league has figured him out. Even
if you take out his top receiver (Kelvin Benjamin), give him an oft-injured,
second-tier runningback (Jonathan Stewart) and a very average offensive line
(with Michael Oher, for god’s sake), he still puts up a 17-1 league MVP season. That kind of transcendent skill is impossible
to prepare for and contain.
2. I trust Carolina in a neutral
site more than Denver. No one talks
about the air pressure in Denver, which certainly had an effect on players like
Gronkowski two weeks ago. It takes the
wind out of opponents, and extends the kicking game, which favors a
defensive-oriented team like the Broncos.
Denver is coming off four straight home games where their average margin
of victory was 4.75 points. Their most
impressive road wins were at Detroit Week 3 and at San Diego Week 13. The Panthers weren’t exactly great away from
home either, but did win in Seattle, New Orleans, and New York (all of which,
the last I saw, were more impressive than Detroit or San Diego). The NFC was tougher than the AFC, and I
believe that being away from home impairs the Broncos more so than the
Panthers (fact #22 really sticks out here).
3. Denver’s style of play fits right
into Carolina’s hands. Manning turns
over the ball a lot; the Panthers are the league’s best team at takeaways. Denver eliminates deep passes and pressures
the QB; the Panthers are a run-first offense (not exactly the strengths of Pittsburgh and New England) and Cam Newton is the best in the
league at avoiding pressure. In close
games, Denver controls the clock and slows the pace down; in 6 of the 8
quarters they’ve played this postseason, Carolina has done the same thing,
except with double-digit leads. Even if
you want to concede that Denver’s defense is the best in football, you also
have to say that Carolina’s offense is the best. And if you want to say that Carolina’s
defense is one of the best in football, you have to also admit that Denver’s
offense . . . well, isn’t.
Teams that finished the season
ranked #1 in total defense are 9-2 in Super Bowls. Defense wins championships more so than
offenses, sure. But for Denver to win
the game, Carolina is going to have to make mistakes – mistakes like missing an
extra point or having your fourth-string runningback fumble or turning the ball
away with seconds remaining. Could
Carolina make these devastating mistakes?
I mean, if Russell Wilson can, anyone can. But unlike
the Patriots last year, the way this Denver team wins games necessitates that such mistakes are made. So maybe Cam Newton fumbles at the goal-line
in the fourth quarter? Maybe Graham Gano
misses a 25-yard field goal? Maybe Josh
Norman has a chance to pick off Peyton Manning’s game-winning pass, but it
slips through his hands? All of those
scenarios are in the cards. But if the
game is played 100 times, how often do each of those events happen? Once?
Twice? That still leaves 96 or 97
other scenarios. At first I thought
picking Carolina was going with my heart, but it actually seems fairly clear that it’s
really going with my head.
Prediction: Carolina 37,
Denver 13.
Doppelganger: Do we really have
to look that far?
Special Prop Bets:
Odds that Jim Nantz’s and Peyton Manning’s shared agent will make an appearance
in the booth: 3/1
Odds
that Rocco and Gino will hold a “friendly one-on-one” with Nantz and Simms
before the game to avoid any mention of you-know-what-banned-substance: 4/1
Odds that such a meeting isn’t necessary because they weren’t going to bring it
up anyway: No bet.
Odds
that representatives from Papa Johns and Nationwide will personally hand the
Lombardi trophy to Peyton Manning: 5/1
Odds
that Simms, Roger Goodell and Eli Manning will actually be wearing pom-poms and
giggling with each other about going steady with the leader of the pack: 7/2
Odds
that Nantz and Simms introduce Manning by humming “Great-est-QB-of-all-time” to
the annoying “Nationwide” theme: 6/5
Odds
that I will copy-paste this column and the 2013 Super Bowl preview when Newton’s Panthers and Manning’s LA Rams meet in next
year’s NFC Championship Game: Even.
