2019 Pre-Season Profile: Toronto Blue Jays

#25

The Toronto Blue Jays have a new coaching staff and the most talked about player in baseball to have yet to play in single major league game.  Will the changes and the hype make immediate success in 2019, or will it point to a bright future not yet realized?

2018 Predictions

3rd in AL East

2018 will be Josh Donaldson's last season as a Blue Jay.

2018 Results

73-89, 4th in AL East

The Blue Jays had another less than stellar season in 2018 as the window on their latest wave of success officially slammed closed.  The team started into full rebuild mode, which was shown by the mid-season trades of any veterans with value: Steve Pearce, JA Happ, Roberto Osuna, and former MVP Josh Donaldson.  Outside of trading these players to contenders, and giving a native Canadian (James Paxton) his first no-hitter on his native soil, the Blue Jays really had an inconsequential season.
The biggest story of the season might have been the fact that their top prospect didn't get the call-up despite every indication that he was ready (keep building the hype!).

Additions / Subtractions

The subtractions were more notable than the additions.  Veteran catcher Russell Martin was moved to the Dodgers, and outfielder Curtis Granderson, as well as infielders Aledmys Diaz and Yangervis Solarte, left via free agency.  In their place?  They were replaced internally for the most part.  In fact, outside of starting pitchers Matt Shoemaker and Clayton Richard entering the organization, the roster is practically unchanged from the way it ended last season.  The most significant change was the firing of longtime manager John Gibbons and the hiring of longtime Rays' coach Charlie Montoyo.

Most Important Hitter

Randal Grichuk

At one point, Randal Grichuk was a top prospect and looked at as a centerpiece of the next generation of Cardinals in St. Louis.  After not being as strong as expected, he was moved to Toronto before last season.  In his first year in Toronto, he was solid hitting 25 homers and a 118 OPS+.  He was third on the team in WAR behind first baseman Justin Smoak and defensive freak Kevin Pillar.  The Blue Jays acquired him with the hope that a change of scenery would help him achieve some of the success his talent once promised.  If he is to be a potential building block of the next wave of Blue Jay success that is around the corner, 2019 is an important year for him to show that he is worthy of it.

Most Important Pitcher

Aaron Sanchez

In 2016, Aaron Sanchez was the next great ace in the league.  He went 15-2 with a 3.00 ERA (led the league) and had a 142 ERA+ (league average is 100).  The Blue Jays shut down his season early to control innings and hopefully avoid injuries.  Even with the extra precautions, the injuries came anyways, only throwing 36 innings in 2017 and 105 innings in 2018.  The only encouraging sign is the injuries were mainly revolving around finger injuries and not shoulder or elbow.  Even when he was healthy in 2018, he posted a 4.89 ERA and an 86 ERA+, the first time he dropped below average in his career.  Sanchez is only entering his age 26 season, and if he is healthy the Blue Jays are hoping he returns to form, even if it is just to drive up the asking price for his potential mid-season trade to a contender.

Prospect to Watch

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

The hype is real!  Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is the overall top prospect in baseball and one of the best hitting prospects to come along in the last few decades.  With the success he showed at the plate in the minors last year, he should have been on the roster for the last half of 2018, however the Blue Jays are trying to control service time and keep him in their organization for as long as possible.  Because of that, don't expect to see him in the big leagues until mid-April as the Blue Jays eek out one more extra year of club control.  Once he arrives, be prepared for him to hit.  He may only be 19, but he is ready.  If he stays at third base, watch for two sons of former players, Vlad Jr. and Bo Bichette (might be called up by mid-season), to be the future left side of the Toronto infield for the next five or six seasons.

2019 Prediction

4th in AL East

The top of this division is definitely in a different category than the bottom.  The Blue Jays are in no way ready to compete with the top three teams in the division.  They are at least a couple years away from being competitive again.  However, as soon as Vlad Jr. is called us to big leagues, no one will be able to say they aren't exciting.  Vlad will mark the start of a new wave of stud prospects hitting the big league club over the next few seasons that will make them competitive again.  Until then, enjoy watching Vlad hit.  It will be one of the few things the Blue Jay fans will have to cheer for this season, especially if guys like Bo Bichette are held back unfairly like Vlad Jr. was.

Fearless Prediction

Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez will be traded mid-season.

The Blue Jays are probably eyeing 2021 or 2022 as their peak year to really start competing again in the AL East.  That is when their top prospects will really be hitting their prime.  Both Stroman and Sanchez will be free agents after the 2021 season.  Add that to the fact that the top of the Blue Jays' farm system is loaded with hitters but lacking a little in the pitching department, and it would make sense if they decided to move these two potential aces now to bring back some pitching prospects that will be peaking at the same time as the rest of their prospects.  Either way, if they are not viewed as being on the team when the Blue Jays plan on being competitive again, trade them now.

2018 Pre-Season Profile: Toronto Blue Jays

#22

The Toronto Blue Jays went from perennial playoff contender to irrelevance in 2017.  Does 2018 bring a return to form or more of the same?

2017 Predictions

5th in AL East

No Blue Jays starting pitcher will start more than 30 games.

2017 Results

76-86, 4th in AL East

I had a pretty good read on the Blue Jays last year.  Losing some key pieces, watching others age in front of them, and fighting through injuries led to them only one game out of the cellar in the AL East.  As for their pitching, Marcus Stroman and JA Happ were able to each start 33 games, however 2016 All Star Aaron Sanchez had the setback I predicted, only pitching 36 innings in an injury-plagued campaign.

Additions / Subtractions

The Blue Jays made some minor moves for some veterans that will help fill out their roster in 2018.  The most noteworthy additions were veteran Curtis Granderson to man leftfield and former top prospect Randal Grichuk to man rightfield.  Some other minor moves for depth were infielders Yangervis Solarte and Aledmys Diaz along with pitchers Jaime Garcia and Seung Hwan Oh.  None of these moves could be considered huge difference makers (maybe Grichuk), but it helps the lineup look respectable in 2018 as opposed to some of the "extreme tankers" (Marlins, I'm looking at you).

Most Important Hitter

Justin Smoak

In 2017, Justin Smoak went from a prime example of potential that never delivers to finally putting it all together to be an All Star.  Now entering 2018, the Blue Jays are going to be relying on Smoak to anchor the center of their order with Josh Donaldson.  More times than not, when a player has a spike year like Smoak did in 2017, it is more likely for it to be a fluke instead of a sign of good things to come.  The Blue Jays are really hoping Smoak can buck the trend.

Most Important Pitcher

Marcus Stroman

Over the last few seasons, Marcus Stroman has emerged as one of the better pitchers in baseball.  Only entering his age 27 season, Stroman will try and repeat a productive 2017 that started with him dominating in the WBC and finished with him being the best player on the Blue Jays in terms of WAR.  Stroman is the ultimate competitor.  Will he be able to stay interested and on top of his game if the Blue Jays aren't in contention?  Also, he has thrown over 200 innings the last two seasons.  He has not had a history of arm issues (although he is working through some shoulder inflammation right now).  Will he be able to avoid the inevitable lost season young pitchers have had to arm problems?

Prospect to Watch

Anthony Alford

The Blue Jays have a pretty stacked farm system, highlighted by a couple second generation big leaguers.  However, Vlad Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette are still at least a year away from being ready for the big leagues.  The intriguing one to watch for 2018 is Anthony Alford.  This former football player for Southern Miss is a crazy athlete with blazing speed.  His other tools are still developing, but the Blue Jays would love to see him break through in leftfield at some point this year and maybe even be their leadoff hitter with a little pop.

2018 Prediction

3rd in AL East

Predicting them to finish in the middle of the AL East might be a little deceiving.  The Yankees and Red Sox are the only teams in this division that will finish over .500.  The Blue Jays are actually set up well moving forward.  They have some big-time prospects waiting in the wings and a decent pitching staff, led by Stroman and Aaron Sanchez, that will still be there when they are ready to compete again.  This season might not be a success in Toronto, but they are building to something great.

Fearless Prediction

2018 will be Josh Donaldson's last season as a Blue Jay.

Josh Donaldson only has one more year of control after 2018.  His relationship with the Blue Jays' front office has been rocky at best throughout his time in Toronto.  Chances are he will not be re-signing with the Blue Jays.  The Blue Jays probably don't want him back considering they have one of the top prospects in the world (Vlad Guerrero Jr.) that plays third base.  So all this leads to, ideally, an offseason trade to bring back more prospects that will support this new wave that will be ready to compete in a few years.

2017 Pre-Season Profile: Toronto Blue Jays

#19

The Toronto Blue Jays came just short of the World Series in 2016.  What do their prospects look like for the 2017 season?  Will they get over the hump, or fall back to the pack?

2016 Predictions

1st in AL East, lose in World Series

This will be the last year the Blue Jays make the playoffs for a decade.

2016 Results

89-73, 2nd in AL East, WILD CARD, lost in ALCS

I was all in on the Blue Jays in 2016.  I had them coming up short in the World Series.  It turns out their playoff run came up a little short of that thanks to an insanely hot Cleveland Indians team.  If nothing else, the Blue Jays showed they know how to compete.  As for my Fearless Prediction, only time will tell.

Additions / Subtractions

My look ahead in my Fearless Prediction was based on how this offseason was going to go for the Blue Jays.  It had the potential to be catastrophic.  Although it didn't hit the depths it could have, it still was pretty bad.  They watched All Stars Edwin Encarnacion and Michael Saunders walk away.  They re-signed aging slugger Jose Bautista for a discount only when it became apparent that no one else wanted him.  After losing these key pieces, the only player brought in was DH Kendrys Morales, quite the downgrade over Encarnacion.

Most Important Hitter

Troy Tulowitzki

This is the same player I highlighted in this position last year, but it is even more true this year than last year.  There was a time when Tulo was one of the best players in baseball.  The only question was if he could stay healthy.  Ever since he moved to Toronto from Denver, his production has fallen apart.  At his best, Tulowitzki was almost a 7 win player when you look at WAR.  In 2016, he was just over a 3 win player.  That's not terrible, but it's not superstar level either.  With the loss of Encarnacion and Saunders and the deterioration of Joey Bats, the Blue Jays need Tulo to be the superstar again.  It would also help if he could play over 140 games, a feat he has only accomplished 3 times in his 10 year career.

Most Important Pitcher

Aaron Sanchez

The Blue Jays had outstanding performances from some of their starters last season, most notably JA Happ and Marco Estrada.  However, the real spark was Aaron Sanchez.  The 23 year old had 15 wins and almost 200 innings.  He would have surpassed that threshold if the team let him, but they decided to shut him down late in the year to control his workload.  However, a pitcher rarely sees his inning count go up by 100 in one year without any ill effects.  With the offense possibly taking a step back this year, the pitching needs to step up and as good if not better than 2016.  Their ability to do this starts and ends with Sanchez, his health, and his ability to duplicate his dominance from a year ago.

Player to Watch

Rowdy Tellez

The Blue Jays are a few years away from their top prospects making an impact on the big league roster (however we all look forward to the debut of Vlad Guerrero Jr.).  One player who might have a chance to make an impact this season is first baseman Rowdy Tellez.  The incumbent in Toronto is Justin Smoak, who all Mariner fans know is the definition of a bust (he has a career WAR of 1.5 ... he has "boasted" a negative WAR in more seasons than a positive WAR).  Tellez, listed at 6'4" and 220 pounds, has the potential to be a serious power threat at the next level.  Look for the Blue Jays to give up on Smoak at some point this season and give Tellez a shot.

2017 Prediction

5th in AL East

This might be a little dramatic, but I could easily see it happen.  The Blue Jays are coming crashing back down to Earth this season.  Everyone else in this division is trending up.  Instead, the Blue Jays have done nothing to improve themselves while getting a year older in the process.  The pitching staff won't repeat their performance from last year (although Marcus Stroman could have a breakout season), and the offense looks a lot like the Angels now, which is one of the weakest offenses in the game.  They both have one superstar (Josh Donaldson), an aging slugger who is a shell of his former self (Jose Bautista), and a roster that otherwise sports more busts than bombs.  I'm holding to my prediction from last season.  Count this as year 1 of 10 upcoming years of futility north of the border.

Fearless Prediction

No Blue Jays starting pitcher will start more than 30 games.

One of the reasons I see the Blue Jays falling apart this year is their pitching staff.  They all had amazing seasons last year, but so many times seasons like that are followed by injuries.  JA Happ, Aaron Sanchez, Marco Estrada, and Francisco Liriano all could spend significant time on the DL.  Marcus Stroman is a stud, but I could easily see his workload in the World Baseball Classic catching up with him.  Look for the Blue Jays to be scrambling for starting pitching by mid-season.

MLB 2016: Season in Review & Postseason Predictions

The longest grind of the sports year has come to an end as game 162 was played in the baseball season.  (Well, game 161 for four teams for a variety of reasons.)  As always, the season was a wild ride, and now we gear up for some incredible postseason baseball where anything can happen.  Let's stop and take a look at the season that was, how my preseason predictions fared, and what to expect from the Fall Classic.

AL East

My Preseason Predictions

1.  Toronto Blue Jays*

2.  Boston Red Sox

3.  Tampa Bay Rays

4.  Baltimore Orioles

5.  New York Yankees

Final 2016 Standings

1.  Boston Red Sox*

2.  Baltimore Orioles*

3.  Toronto Blue Jays*

4.  New York Yankees

5.  Tampa Bay Rays

I knew the Red Sox would be back, but I didn't know just how good they would be or that David Ortiz would be historic in his final season.  The Orioles constantly surprise as Buck Showalter proves once again to be one of the best managers in baseball.  One of the biggest surprises of the season was Mark Trumbo leading the league in home runs.  Toronto was able to sneak their way into the playoffs.  I had predicted a division title for the Blue Jays, but some injuries held them back.  At least my World Series prediction is still in tact!  I knew the New York Yankees were taking steps back with Chapman being traded (BOLD PREDICTION FULFILLED) along with Miller, Teixeira retiring, and A-Rod being forced into retirement.  What I didn't predict is how quickly the kids would come out and play like everyone expects Yankees to play.  The Tampa Bay Rays didn't have much going for them entering the season, however they always seem to surprise.  Not this year, as they found themselves in the cellar.

AL Central

My Preseason Predictions

1.  Detroit Tigers*

2.  Kansas City Royals*

3.  Minnesota Twins

4.  Cleveland Indians

5.  Chicago White Sox

Final 2016 Standings

1.  Cleveland Indians*

2.  Detroit Tigers

3.  Kansas City Royals

4.  Chicago White Sox

5.  Minnesota Twins

I completely underestimated the Indians.  Not only did the pitching dominate, but the offense was able to produce without Michael Brantley.  The Tigers came up just short as they weren't eliminated until the last day.  They are looking older and older.  Their window might be closed.  The Royals incredible run comes to an end in 2016 as injuries derailed their season over and over.  The White Sox started hot but quickly faded to the back of the division.  Robin Ventura leaving (BOLD PREDICTION FULFILLED) might be a sign of the rebuilding that should have started several years ago.  The Twins were the biggest disappointment of the season as they almost made the playoffs in 2015 only end the season as the only team with 100 losses.

AL East

My Preseason Predictions

1.  Houston Astros*

2.  Texas Rangers*

3.  Seattle Mariners

4.  Los Angeles Angels

5.  Oakland A's

Final 2016 Standings

1.  Texas Rangers*

2.  Seattle Mariners

3.  Houston Astros

4.  Los Angeles Angels

5.  Oakland A's

I had the Rangers in the playoffs as a Wild Card, but they showed that last year was no fluke as they dominated the division once again.  The Mariners surprised as they took their rebuilt roster to the doorstep of the playoffs.  Coming up short extends the Mariners' streak without a playoff berth to 15 seasons, the longest active streak in baseball.  The Astros had a bit of a regression this season after a surprising postseason run last year.  Watch for them to come storming back in 2017.  The Angels still have the best player in the world, but they are wasting his prime years as they have no support for him.  Oakland ended the year in full rebuild mode, getting rid of most of their Opening Day roster (BOLD PREDICTION FULFILLED).

NL East

My Preseason Predictions

1.  New York Mets*

2.  Washington Nationals

3.  Miami Marlins

4.  Atlanta Braves

5.  Philadelphia Phillies

Final 2016 Standings

1.  Washington Nationals*

2.  New York Mets*

3.  Miami Marlins

4.  Philadelphia Phillies

5.  Atlanta Braves

I knew Dusty Baker would be a difference maker for the Nationals, however I didn't know he would be this much of a difference maker.  He turned this team back into an elite squad in one year.  The Mets somehow made it back into the playoffs even though their insane pitching rotation is a mess.  The Marlins had a positive season pointing in the right direction for the future until this last week.  The sudden and tragic passing of superstar Jose Fernandez not only came to define their season, but it has the potential to define every season for the next decade as his absence will be felt for years to come.  (Next year's All Star Game in Miami will be tough without #16 there...)  The Phillies seem to be progressing well in their rebuild as it looks like they might be an impact team sooner than was expected.  The Braves started about as bad as possible, however they ended the season on a positive note and should be riding some good momentum into their new SunTrust Park in 2017.

NL Central

My Preseason Predictions

1.  Chicago Cubs*

2.  Pittsburgh Pirates*

3.  St. Louis Cardinals

4.  Cincinnati Reds

5.  Milwaukee Brewers

Final 2016 Standings

1.  Chicago Cubs*

2.  St. Louis Cardinals

3.  Pittsburgh Pirates

4.  Milwaukee Brewers

5.  Cincinnati Reds

I knew the Cubs were going to be good.  I had no idea they were going to be this good.  I correctly predicted that the Cardinals were finally going to miss the playoffs.  They just needed too many pieces to fall into place.  The Pirates were disappointing this season and are now talking about entertaining trade offers for superstar Andrew McCutchen.  The Brewers are in rebuild mode after trading Jonathan Lucroy to the Rangers (BOLD PREDICTION FULFILLED).  The Reds are stuck somewhere between rebuilding and being stuck with big veteran contracts.  They might not have bottomed out yet.

NL West

My Preseason Predictions

1.  San Francisco Giants*

2.  Los Angeles Dodgers*

3.  Arizona Diamondbacks

4.  Colorado Rockies

5.  San Diego Padres

Final 2016 Standings

1.  Los Angeles Dodgers*

2.  San Francisco Giants*

3.  Colorado Rockies

4.  Arizona Diamondbacks

5.  San Diego Padres

The Dodgers impressed this season under rookie manager Dave Roberts.  Even with an extended injury to Clayton Kershaw, the Dodgers dominated.  (I was so close on my prediction with the Dodgers, but no one wanted Yasiel Puig so he wasn't traded.)  I had the Giants winning the division, which they might have done if they didn't go through one of the most inexplicable second half collapses in recent memory.  They still snuck in to the postseason though so watch out.  The Rockies are showing they are very close to being a contender in this division.  (Again, SO close on my prediction, but they chose to keep CarGo.)  The Diamondbacks proved that their season was over before it started when AJ Pollock went down the weekend before Opening Day.  It also didn't help to have disappointing seasons from their two biggest offseason acquisitions: Zack Greinke and Shelby Miller.  The Padres are trying to be relevant, but their front office is proving to be a little inadequate.

Season Awards

AL Manager of the Year

1.  Terry Francona

2.  John Farrell

3.  Buck Showalter

Showalter seems to do more with less every season.  John Farrell turned around the Red Sox with aging superstars, a resurgence of Hanley Ramirez at first base, and Pablo Sandoval spending the whole season on the DL.  However, nothing beats what Terry Francona has done in Cleveland.  He is one of the best coaches of the 21st century.

NL Manager of the Year

1.  Dusty Baker

2.  Dave Roberts

3.  Joe Maddon

Joe Maddon might end up winning this as he somehow exceeded the highest expectations on any team in recent memory.  Rookie manager Dave Roberts took a dumpster fire in the Dodgers and won the division despite having a piecemeal starting rotation all season.  However, Dusty Baker showed that old school baseball people still have a place in the new school of sabermetrics.  His work with the Nationals was incredible this season.

AL Cy Young

1.  Aaron Sanchez

2.  Rick Porcello

3.  JA Happ

The Blue Jays had several pitchers step up and have career years.  JA Happ returned to Toronto and won 20 games, a rare feat in today's game.  Boston's Rick Porcello finally seemed to put everything together as he led the league in wins with 22.  However, Aaron Sanchez was the most impressive pitcher in the AL this season.  Toronto's young ace was even held back due to an innings limit, but still posted some impressive numbers.

NL Cy Young

1.  Kyle Hendricks

2.  Madison Bumgarner

3.  Jon Lester

Jon Lester showed that he is still the elite starter he was in Boston.  He definitely had more in the tank than many gave him credit for.  Madison Bumgarner once again had an elite season, which makes many teams nervous as they enter the postseason.  However, for the second year in a row, the best pitcher in the National League is a Cubs pitchers nobody knew before the season.  Kyle Hendricks had an unbelievable year that overshadowed what Lester did as well as last year's Cy Young winner, Jake Arrieta.

AL MVP

1.  David Ortiz

2.  Mike Trout

3.  Robinson Cano

Robinson Cano went from the most disappointing season of his career in 2015 to career highs in many stats in 2016.  He kept coming up big in the right spots, playing his best baseball in September while his team tried to make the postseason.  The best player on the planet, no matter how bad his team is, is still Mike Trout.  He just keeps getting better.  However, this season belonged to David Ortiz.  He played his best when it was his last.  Look for him to try and be the first DH to win MVP.

NL MVP

1.  Kris Bryant

2.  Daniel Murphy

3.  Nolan Arenado

One of these days, Nolan Arenado will be recognized for how great he really is.  He led the league in home runs and RBI's this season while playing Gold Glove caliber third base.  Daniel Murphy followed up his amazing postseason last year with an MVP caliber season this year for the Nationals.  However, when in doubt, the MVP is the best player on the best team.  The Cubs were by far the best team, and Kris Bryant was by far their best player.  Look for him to win the award in his sophomore season.

Playoff Predictions

Wild Card Round

Blue Jays def. Orioles

Giants def. Mets

The Blue Jays have waited all season to get back in this position after 2015's postseason.  The game is in Toronto, which is one of the craziest venues in all of baseball.  Toronto will win.  The NL Wild Card game will be a classic.  Noah Syndergaard, the only healthy ace for the Mets, is on the mound against the possibly the best postseason pitcher of all time in Madison Bumgarner.  Look for the Mets to be MadBummed.

Divisional Series

Blue Jays def. Rangers

Red Sox def. Indians

Giants def. Cubs

Nationals def. Dodgers

The first matchup is an epic rematch from last year.  There is no way the Blue Jays let the Rangers beat them again.  The Red Sox just have too much firepower for an injury-plagued Indians team.  The Cubs are the team everyone is looking to as the favorite, but the Giants have been there before many times and feature the rotation with the proven pedigree.  I said in my preseason predictions that the Cubs would dominate the regular season, but their pitching would run out of steam in the playoffs.  I'm holding to it.  The most intriguing matchup might be the Nats and the Dodgers.  Both teams finally played how everyone thought they could.  I give the edge to the team with the more experienced manager.

Championship Series

Blue Jays def. Red Sox

Giants def. Nationals

The storybook ending for David Ortiz would be to go out on top with a ring.  However, I really think this is the right time for the Blue Jays.  Their pitching is outstanding with Happ, Sanchez, and Marcus Stroman.  They might have the best lineup in the league.  It would be an upset, but I think it's time for the Blue Jays to get back to the World Series.  In the National League, it's Dusty Baker's Nationals going up against his former team in the Giants.  Bumgarner, Cueto, and Samardzija can shut down any lineup.  They know how to peak in the playoffs, and I don't see anything different happening this time around.

World Series

Giants def. Blue Jays

Why not go with my original prediction!  I predicted Giants over Blue Jays back before the season started, and I am going to stick to my guns.  After all, it is an even numbered year.  Besides that, the Giants just know how to get it done in the playoffs.  It will be a fun series, but look for a similar result to what we are used to seeing.

World Series MVP

Madison Bumgarner