2021 Pre-Season Profile: Chicago Cubs

 #21

The Chicago Cubs pulled out a division win in 2020, but were swept out of the expanded playoff field pretty quick.  Now there are talks of cutting payroll and a potential tearing down of the roster that broke the dreaded curse.  Will 2021 see more success or be the start of the rebuild?

2020 Predictions

#18 - 4th in NL Central

MIH - Willson Contreras

MIP - Yu Darvish

PTW - Nico Hoerner

2020 Results

#9 - 34-26, 1st in NL Central, lost in Wild Card Round

Everyone thought the Cubs were due for a down year in 2020 (at least I did).  Instead, behind rookie manager David Ross, the Cubs won the division and hosted a first round playoff series against the surprise of the 2020 season, the Miami Marlins.  The Cubs were eliminated without winning a game, leaving many to wonder if 2020 was actually a successful season or not.

Additions / Subtractions

The Cubs offseason was defined by two things: who left and who is still there.  First, leaving the club were Cy Young finalist Yu Darvish, veteran pitcher Jon Lester, and slugger Kyle Schwarber.  Also leaving was team president Theo Epstein, the man responsible for breaking the championship curses in both Boston and Chicago.  The one still there is Kris Bryant.  The Cubs are in the business of cutting payroll right now, and Bryant is due to have a big payday after the 2021 season.  Rumors swirled all offseason that he would be traded, but he is still manning the hot corner for the Cubs.  Coming in were some minor pickups like Joc Pederson, Zach Davies, and Jake Arrieta to fill in for the departing players.

Most Important Hitter

Kris Bryant

So much heading into this season revolves around Kris Bryant for the Cubs.  It reminds me some of the Rockies heading into last season being held hostage by the Nolan Arenado trade talks.  At the same time, Bryant is coming off a pretty disappointing 2020 season.  He barely cracked a .200 average with a 73 OPS+ in the shortened season.  Now Bryant is in his contract year (which many would argue shouldn't be happening thanks to service time manipulation).  Bryant's success in 2021 could lead to greater team success for the Cubs.  It could also lead to greater trade value at the deadline this year.  It could also lead to a bigger payday for Bryant next offseason.  Poor production could easily lead to more drama over what the Cubs are going to do with Kris Bryant.

Most Important Pitcher

Kyle Hendricks

With the departures of Yu Darvish and Jon Lester, the Cubs' rotation is lacking a lot of star power and established dominance.  The holdover in the rotation is Kyle Hendricks.  Ever since he made his debut in 2014, he has quietly been a dominant force for the Cubs using control and finesse in a way that draws comparisons to Greg Maddux.  Now he is by far the main man for the Cubs.  He is going to need to continue his dominance and mentor some young pitchers ready to make an impact for the bug club.

Prospect to Watch

Brailyn Marquez

One of those young arms Hendricks will be mentoring is Brailyn Marquez.  The top prospect in the Cubs' farm system, the 22 year old lefty got one appearance in 2020 that went pretty horrifically.  Now he is competing for a spot in the rotation.  If he doesn't break Spring Training with the big club, look for him to be a call up sometime soon.

2021 Prediction

4th in NL Central

The Cubs still have a lot of talent, but the NL Central is a pretty deep division (with the exception of the Pirates).  The depth of the division, as well as the questions around what direction the team is heading, will keep the Cubs from having a huge impact in 2021.  With that said, in that division, you can't really count them out.

Fearless Prediction

There will only player in the dugot from the Cubs' World Series roster on Opening Day 2022 will be manager David Ross.

What was supposed to be a long-lasting dynasty appears to be all but over 5 years later.  All indications show there is no way Kris Bryant returns next season.  He might not even last till the end of this season.  Anthony Rizzo is in the last year of his deal, as is Javy Baez.  Jake Arrieta is only back for one year.  Willson Contreras appears to be an attractive trade chip that could be moved.  That leaves just Jason Heyward and Kyle Hendricks.  If the Cubs go full rebuild here, one or both of those players could also be moved.  The likelihood that happens is low, but it's possible the entirety of that magical team will be gone very soon.

2019 Pre-Season Profile: Chicago Cubs

#14

The Chicago Cubs have not been able to repeat the success that won them their historic World Series in 2016.  Will 2019 bring them back to elite or mark the possible end of their run that broke the curse?

2018 Predictions

1st in NL Central, win World Series

2018 Results

95-68, 2nd in NL Central, WILD CARD, lost Wild Card Game

First, I didn't quite get to all my articles last season so I do not have a Fearless Prediction to carry over.  However, you could say predicting them to win two World Series in three years was quite a fearless prediction.  Unfortunately, that didn't happen.  It seems impossible for a 95 win season to be a disappointment, but it was in Chicago.  Although their record still showed success, they struggled all season with injuries and offense.  They lost a playoff game for the division title against the Brewers, then lost the Wild Card Game against the Rockies.  When they needed to win a game, they couldn't.

Additions / Subtractions

With the amount of money they have committed to several players as they have made this run over the last few seasons, the Cubs really had no financial flexibility to go out and acquire anyone.  In fact, they are entering 2019 with almost the exact same roster as they ended last season with.  Daniel Murphy has moved on after being acquired mid-season last year.  Daniel Descalso was brought in to replace Tommy La Stella as a backup utility infielder.  That's about all they did.

Most Important Hitter

Kris Bryant

Kris Bryant started off his career winning Rookie of the Year in 2015 and the MVP in 2016 before winning the World Series.  2017 wasn't up to his MVP level, but 2018 was his worst season to date.  Injuries limited him to 102 games.  When he played, he was below his lofty standards, only hitting .272 (.295 the year before) with 13 home runs (lowest total before that was 26) and an OPS+ of 118 (lowest before that was 135 his rookie year).  After being a 6 or 7 win player in terms of WAR each season up until this point, 2018 saw him total a 1.9 WAR.  If the Cubs are going to be elite in 2019, Kris Bryant needs to be elite once again.

Most Important Pitcher

Yu Darvish

Some questioned the Cubs last offseason when they decided to sign Yu Darvish to a 6 year deal after he seemed to fall apart in the World Series the year before for the Dodgers.  It was questioned even more when Darvish was only able to make 8 starts and total 40 innings in 2018 due to injuries.  He says he is entering 2019 100% healthy which will be needed.  Darvish still has the ability to be dominant, and the Cubs have a rotation that is aging and shown signs of inconsistency.  Darvish can stabilize the rotation and be the leader he is being paid to be.

Prospect to Watch

Adbert Alzolay

When the Cubs were preparing for their World Series run, they had one of the best farm systems in all of baseball.  Now, is it tends to happen, their system is one of the worst as all their top prospects are now several years into their career.  Others they have traded away to bring in players to help them now, like the 2016 trade of Gleyber Torres to the Yankees for Aroldis Chapman.  Or the 2017 trade of Eloy Jimenez to the White Sox for Jose Quintana.  Now they are left with a system that only boasts one player in the top 100, and he is still at least a couple years away.  Their best opportunity for meaningful contributions comes from Adbert Alzolay, a 24 year old right-handed starter.  He missed a good portion of last season with an injury so he won't be ready right away, but look for him to be a helpful arm through the dog days of summer.

2019 Prediction

3rd in NL Central

The way I see it, #11-14 on this list will be teams that are competing for a playoff spot all the way down to the final games, but come up just short.  The Cubs may have a renewed focus and energy this season, but they also now see themselves int he most competitive division in baseball.  Even if their win total is nearing 90 games again, it is possible that is only good for 3rd place in this stacked division.  Some of their core players are aging and past their prime, and I think their window with this core is quickly closing.

Fearless Prediction

This will be Joe Maddon's last season as Cubs manager.

There has been much speculation about this throughout the offseason.  Joe Maddon is in the last year of his contract, and no progress has been made towards an extension.  Several speculate that Maddon might want to see what happens this season first before he decides if he wants to come back.  Some say he might just be done managing.  However you look at it, chances are this is the Cubs last run with the manager that finally brought a World Series title back to Wrigley.