2024 Pre-Season Profile: Chicago Cubs

 #25

The Chicago Cubs had a solid season in 2023, almost making the playoffs.  So ... they fired their manager.  Would the change in leadership lead to more success?

2023 Predictions

#15 - 2nd in NL Central

MIH - Dansby Swanson

MIP - Kyle Hendricks

PTW - Hayden Wesneski

FP - Ian Happ will be traded at the Trade Deadline.

2023 Results

#17 - 83-79, 2nd in NL Central

Highest WAR (Position) - Nico Hoerner

Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Justin Steele

The Cubs were about what I thought they would be in 2023, even though they may have done it in a different way.  Dansby Swanson, their prize of last off-season, was an All Star and got MVP votes despite being average at the plate.  Kyle Hendricks had a pretty good bounce back year also.  The surprises of 2023 were starter Justin Steele, infielder Nico Hoerner, and the resurrection of Cody Bellinger.  They were in the conversation for a playoff spot right to the end, finishing only 1 game out of a Wild Card berth.  By all accounts, 2023 was a pretty successful season from a big brand working their way back to the top.

Additions / Subtractions

So why did they fire their manager?!?  David Ross, a fan favorite back to his playing days, is out.  This move had nothing to do with David Ross and had everything to do with the fact that they could upgrade to Craig Counsell, who left the rival Brewers for the big market and the pig payday.  Three other additions of note: one got a lot of press, one got a little press, and one got very little, but all were significant.  First, Cody Bellinger finally re-signed with the Cubs after his huge turnaround season.  Next, the Cubs signed Japanese import Shota Imanaga to replace Marcus Stroman in the rotation.  He was a top pitcher in Japan and could turn into a huge signing.  Then, a small trade of prospects brought to the Cubs Michael Busch, who will be on the Opening Day roster and is set to have a big impact for the Cubs.

Most Important Hitter

Cody Bellinger

One of the most fascinating free agency cases this off-season was Cody Bellinger.  He's been an MVP, he's been one of the worst hitters in baseball, and last year he made a triumphant return to his old form.  However, heading into free agency, which player do you pay?  Bellinger wanted to be paid like the potential MVP candidate, while clubs were more skeptical that he was back.  The Cubs, more out of necessity, finally paid him, but waited till after Spring Training had already started to do so.  Now, they have significant funds invested in the Bellinger of 2023.  If he continues to show that's once again who he is, the Cubs lineup could be quite potent.  If not, the Cubs could be stuck with the contract they didn't want.

Most Important Pitcher

Shota Imanaga

I thought about going with Justin Steele here after his huge breakout in 2023, but Shota Imanaga might determine the true success of this pitching staff.  Japanese pitchers have had mixed success in the majors.  When they are good, they're really good.  When they're not, they can really struggle.  Imanaga has a chance to be really good and an ace of the staff like Masahiro Tanaka, Yu Darvish, and Shohei Ohtani, but he also could fall into the category of Hideki Irabu, Kei Igawa, and Yusei Kikuchi.

Prospect to Watch

Pete Crow-Armstrong

The Cubs have a bright future, with 7 players in the Top 100 Prospects.  The best of these is ready to break out in 2024 in Pete Crow-Armstrong.  Ranked the 16th best prospect in all of baseball, Crow-Armstrong is a 21 year old lefty outfielder that the Cubs acquired a few years ago in the Javier Baez trade with the Mets.  He is set to be a solid hitter with okay power, but his best tools are his speed and fielding ability.  He is a future Gold Glove winner in centerfield.  The Cubs are excited to give him the opportunity in 2024 to show what he's got.

2024 Predictions

4th in NL Central

The Cubs are on their way back to the top, so why are they so low?  They are in a weird division that literally anyone could win.  Someone has to finish in first, and someone has to finish in last.  Where some divisions are unpredictable because of how many elite teams there are, this division is unpredictable because all the teams are good but not great.  The Cubs are in the middle of that and have enough question marks that they could end up near the bottom of the standings.

Fearless Prediction

Pete Crow-Armstrong will win a 2024 Gold Glove.

Why wait?  If Pete Crow-Armstrong is as good as they say he is, the defense will transfer over immediately.  If the defense is as elite as it is supposed to be, this reality will only be held back by his playing time in his rookie season.  If he hits, he will get enough playing time to make this happen.

2023 Pre-Season Profile: Chicago Cubs

 #15

The Chicago Cubs have completed a full reset of their roster from the core that won the World Series in 2016.  Is this new core ready to compete?

2022 Predictions

#19 - 3rd in NL Central

MIH - Nico Hoerner

MIP - Marcus Stroman

PTW - Brennen Davis

2022 Results

#19 - 74-88, 3rd in NL Central

Highest WAR (Position) - Ian Happ

Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Marcus Stroman

The Cubs quietly had a decent season in 2022.  They never really felt like they were in contention, but they remained competitive throughout the whole season.  One of the biggest revelations of the 2022 season for the Cubs was the solid rookie outing for Japanese import Seiya Suzuki.

Additions / Subtractions

This offseason for the Cubs was all about officially ending one era and starting a new one.  They watched Willson Contreras join the Cardinals in free agency, marking the departure of one of the only remaining players from the World Series team.  To fill the leadership void, the Cubs signed shortstop Dansby Swanson to a huge deal.  Then they invested in some bounce back reclamation projects.  This came in the form of starter Jameson Taillon, first basemen Eric Hosmer and Trey Mancini, and most notably, centerfielder Cody Bellinger.

Most Important Hitter

Dansby Swanson

The Cubs signed Swanson to be the cornerstone of their future, and he will be counted on to start earning his big contract immediately.  He earned the big payday too.  Last season was his best in the big leagues, hitting .277 with 25 home runs, 96 RBI's, and a 115 OPS+ while playing every game and earning his first Gold Glove.  The Cubs are paying him like that was just the start of his greatness.  If the Cubs are taking a step forward in 2023, he will have to prove that's true.

Most Important Pitcher

Kyle Hendricks

What appears to be the final remaining player from the Cubs glory days, Kyle Hendricks has really fallen off the last few seasons.  In fact, 2021 and 2022 were his worst seasons in the big leagues.  In 2022, injuries kept him to only 16 starts and 84 innings.  He almost pitched more in the COVID shortened 2020 season than in 2022.  He doesn't need to bounce all the way back to the elite level that led the league in ERA in 2016, but the Cubs need him to bounce back in some way.  Their pitching staff feels very makeshift and random entering the year.  Hendricks returning to form would provide some much needed stability.

Prospect to Watch

Hayden Wesneski

With the Cubs pitching staff less set than their lineup, there will be opportunities for a player like Hayden Wesneski to have an impact in 2023.  Acquired at the Trade Deadline last season from the Yankees for reliever Scott Effross, Wesneski had a chance to get in 6 games last fall with some pretty good success.  The 25 year old starter is thought to have a very high floor with a ceiling of a mid-rotation starter.  Wesneski enters 2023 as the Cubs #5 prospect in their farm system, which ranks middle of the pack in the league.

2023 Prediction

2nd in NL Central

I like where the Cubs are at!  I think they are definitely heading in the right direction.  Dansby Swanson was a perfect choice to be the new face of their franchise, their new core is starting to develop nicely, and their pitching has some upside.  I look for the Cubs to be a surprise team in 2023.  They probably won't contend for a playoff spot, but they might be in the conversation for a Wild Card down the stretch, especially since they are in one of the worst divisions in baseball.

Fearless Prediction

Ian Happ will be traded at the Trade Deadline.

Over the last season or two, one of the perpetual storylines around the Cubs has been if Ian Happ will be traded at any point.  Happ has been one of those bridge players who broke out on the scene in 2017 just after the World Series run and has been one of their best players the last few years.  Now he is in his last year of club control and will be looking for a big payday next offseason.  The Cubs also have a ton of outfield depth in their farm system, with some ready to contribute at some point this season.  Look for Ian Happ to be moved in July for a young, big league ready arm.  A move like this would be a perfect opportunity to sell while still competing down the stretch, even if it might not be a popular move with Cubs fans.

2021 Pre-Season Profile: Atlanta Braves

 #6

The Atlanta Braves continued to show in 2020 that they are one of the best young teams in all of baseball, coming one win away from making the World Series.  Can they continue to take steps forward in 2021?

2020 Predictions

#10 - 2nd in NL East, WILD CARD, lose in Wild Card Game

MIH - Marcell Ozuna

MIP - Cole Hamels

PTW - Kyle Wright

2020 Results

#6 - 35-25, 1st in NL East, lost in NLCS

I thought 2020 was due to be a step back for the young Braves roster.  Instead, they leapt forward.  I thought Cole Hamels was going to be a factor, and he pitched one game.  Marcell Ozuna had a big year, but not as big as league MVP Freddie Freeman.  Their young pitching stepped up, and that was after Opening Day starter Mike Soroka went down with an injury in his third start.  This all just proved how talented this team truly is and how high their ceiling is going forward.

Additions / Subtractions

Despite the big 2020 season, the Braves still understand the need for some veteran pitching to mentor the young aces they are developing.  So they went out and picked up Drew Smyly and Charlie Morton to pitch alongside the kids.  The other big move was re-signing Marcell Ozuna.  The only real subtractions from the lineup were Adam Duvall leaving for the Marlins and the retirement of Nick Markakis, moves that made room in the lineup considering there is no DH this year.  They did lose some key bullpen arms in Mark Melancon and Darren O'Day.

Most Important Hitter

Dansby Swanson

The Braves' lineup is pretty loaded with stars.  From Freddie Freeman to Marcell Ozuna to possibly the best of them all in Ronald Acuna Jr., this lineup can produce runs.  The breakout star among stars last season was Dansby Swanson.  He put together his best season to date at the plate and trailed only Freeman and pitching phenom Max Fried on the team in WAR (his highest WAR mark of his career despite it only being a 60 game season).  The question is whether or not the former number one overall pick can replicate that level of production for a full 162.  If he can, he becomes yet another weapon opposing pitchers have to deal with in this lineup.

Most Important Pitcher

Will Smith

The Braves always have a plethora of starting pitching, but the real question mark this season is the bullpen.  Closer Mark Melancon and specialist Darren O'Day left this team in the offseason and weren't really replaced.  So who is the closer?  How will they end the brilliant games their starters will pitch?  The most likely option, and the option the Braves need to emerge, is Will Smith.  A former All Star closer with the Giants, Smith has shown he can be an impact arm at the end of a game, something no one else in the bullpen has really proven.  If he can establish himself as the guy, all the other arms in the pen can start to find their role.  If he can't, it might be bullpen by committee which rarely ever works.

Prospect to Watch

Cristian Pache

After a taste of the big leagues in 2020 as a 21 year old, Cristian Pache will be the Opening day starting centerfielder.  Ranked the 12th best prospect in baseball, Pache is an elite defender (which earned him a spot on the postseason roster last season) that is still learning how to be an impact bat in a lineup.  He has shown some great progress and could be the next great young star in the Braves lineup.

2021 Prediction

1st in NL East, lose in NLDS

Emerging from the mayhem of the NL East in 1st place is going to be no easy task, but the Braves seem to have the depth and the youth to do it.  With that said, I think come October some of that youth could hurt them from making a deep run this season, especially considering how strong some of the other contenders are.  It might be a quick exit, but the Braves are a powerhouse that are here to stay for awhile.

Fearless Prediction

Ronald Acuna Jr. wins the NL MVP.

Somehow, Ronald Acuna Jr. is just entering his age 23 season, and he has already established himself as a perennial MVP candidate.  He won Rookie of the Year in 2018, finished 5th in MVP in 2019, and finished 12th in MVP in 2020 despite missing some time with injury and his teammate taking first place.  This could be the year he emerges with the crown.  What will help him is the development of Cristian Pache so he doesn't have to play centerfield anymore.  Being in rightfield might be a little less taxing and might be able to preserve some health.  Either way, it should be a big year for Acuna.

2019 Pre-Season Profile: Atlanta Braves

#18

The Atlanta Braves took a giant leap forward in 2018, winning the division and making the playoffs with their new young core.  Will they continue to progress to one of the elite teams in the league in 2019?

2018 Predictions

2nd in NL East

Ronald Acuna will be the 2018 NL Rookie of the Year.

2018 Results

90-72, 1st in NL East, lost in NLDS

I knew the Braves were heading to something special, but no one saw them being this good this quick.  Everything seemed to align for them, including the division kings, the Nationals, having a down year which allowed them to take the top spot.  Although they did not go far in the playoffs, they showed their tear down from a few years ago was worth it.  They also showed that they have still further to go.

Additions / Subtractions

With most of Atlanta's lineup young and far from free agency, very little was changed in their roster.  Leaving was catcher Kurt Suzuki, and starters Anibal Sanchez and Brandon McCarthy.  Replacing Suzuki is former Brave coming home Brian McCann.  Replacing the starters are some of their super prospects.  However, the biggest move the Braves made this offseason was upgrading at third base by bringing in former MVP Josh Donaldson.

Most Important Hitter

Ozzie Albies

For the first half of the season, Ozzie Albies was possibly the best second baseman in the league as he helped lead the Braves to their huge start.  He feel off pretty impressively in the second half though.  Even though he is only entering his age 22 season, he is being counted on as an anchor of the Braves lineup with other young phenoms like Ronald Acuna.  They need to repeat their production and then some to help the Braves take the next step in 2019.

Most Important Pitcher

Mike Foltynewicz

Mike Foltynewicz emerged last season as the ace of the Braves staff, even making the All Star Team.  He is electric when he is on the mound.  However, the workload over the last few years might be catching up to him.  He is already missing the start of the season with elbow issues (terrible sign).  The Braves will be counting on him to come back and establish himself as the ace once again.  Of the young guns in their rotation, he is the most established.  Although they still have guys like Julio Teheran and Kevin Gausman, Folty is the leader.

Prospect to Watch

Touki Toussaint

You can really take your pick of several pitchers as three of the top four prospects in the Braves system are all starters and have all already made their big league debut last season.  Mike Soroka and Kyle Wright might garner a higher place on their top prospects (all three are in baseball's top 40 prospects), Touki Toussaint is the one slated right now to start the season in the Braves rotation.  The 22 year old righty throws hard with his best pitches being his fastball and curveball.  All three of these guys should have an impact this year, but Touki will be the one people will get to know right away.

2019 Prediction

4th in NL East

This was one of the toughest calls of the whole list.  The Braves have all the promise in the world and are really looking like the new version of what the Astros did a couple years ago.  They tanked to rebuild and came back stronger than ever with some of the most exciting young players in the game.  If you remember, the Astros broke out a year earlier than expected, taking a Wild Card spot in 2015.  Then, they took a giant step back in 2016, finishing in third in their division before busting out to a World Series title in 2017.  I see the Braves on a similar trajectory.  No one expected them to be as good as they were in 2018.  Many times, when a team breaks out big like that, the next year is a bit of a let down.  Combine that with the fact that their division has quickly become one of the most competitive in baseball, and you have a team that will probably be just over .500, but they will finish behind some of the new competitors in town.

Fearless Prediction

Mike Foltynewicz will throw less than 100 innings in 2019.

He is not off to a good start missing the first few weeks of the season.  When someone throws as hard as Folty does, he is bound to have arm issues at some point.  He is starting this season with an arm issue, and I have a feeling it might lead to more issues throughout the season.  Don't be surprised if you hear the words Tommy John thrown out before the end of the season.  Now Folynewicz isn't their only pitcher, but all of the Braves young studs aren't quite ready to take the reins.  Look for everything to align a bit better in 2020.

2017 Pre-Season Profile: Atlanta Braves

#20

The Atlanta Braves continue to design the blueprint for how to rebuild a franchise.  Will their youth movement open up their new ballpark with a successful 2017 season?

My 2016 Predictions

4th in NL East

The Atlanta Braves will lead the league this year in big league debuts.

2016 Results

68-93, 5th in NL East

The 2016 was an interesting one for the Atlanta Braves.  Their youth movement started off horribly as they were easily the worst team in the league the first half of the season, leading to the firing of manager Fredi Gonzalez 37 games in.  However, the end of the year started to see a turnaround as they were one of the hottest teams in the league in September.  They may have had one more win too, but they were the opponent in the cancelled game following the death of Marlins' star Jose Fernandez.

Additions / Subtractions

The Braves were one of the most active teams this offseason.  Their approach seemed to be to surround their youngsters with solid veterans that will help make them successful.  This led to acquiring guys like Bartolo Colon, RA Dickey, Kurt Suzuki, and Brandon Phillips.  Add to that Matt Kemp, who was acquired mid-season last year, and you have a really good balance between rising stars and proven veterans moving forward.  Possibly the two most significant additions this offseason have nothing to do with the lineup.  Brian Snitker, a lifetime Brave, had the interim tag removed as th team's manager in 2017.  However, the biggest change for the team is the opening of their brand new ballpark, replacing the Olympic-Stadium-turned-baseball-park Turner Field.  The opening of a new stadium always brings some heightened excitement to any season.

Most Important Hitter

Adonis Garcia

The Braves are a roster filled with either kids trying to prove themselves or veterans helping fill in the holes.  Then there is Adonis Garcia, who doesn't really fit either category.  At 32 years old, this Cuban defector is only entering his third season in the big leagues.  He is still figuring out how to hit in the league, but he is too old to be considered one of the young guys.  This season could be a make-or-break year for Garcia.  If he has a successful season, then he will be considered part of the new young core moving forward.  If he struggles, he could easily be considered one of the expendable veterans that could be dropped or traded at any point for the next phenom to take over.

Most Important Pitcher

Jaime Garcia

Amidst all the old guys picked up over the offseason, the move to get Jaime Garcia (no relation to Adonis) could easily slide under the radar.  However, this is the kind of "low-risk-high-reward" moves that could really pay off for the Braves.  It wasn't long ago that Jaime Garcia was considered one of the better young pitchers in the game.  However, a few injuries in recent years have derailed a once promising career.  Now the 30 year old lefty is looking to resurrect his career in Atlanta.  If he can recapture some of his glory from St. Louis, he could really solidify a fascinating starting rotation.

Player to Watch

Ozzie Albies

Everyone knows about Rookie of the Year favorite Dansby Swanson.  However, one of the guys to watch for this season is Ozzie Albies.  Overshadowed by Swanson, Albies is still a top 10 prospect in all of baseball.  Because of Swanson, this 20 year old has been transitioning from shortstop to second base.  With Brandon Phillips now starting at second, it allows the Braves to have some patience with Albies, but it also gives him a mentor.  In his prime, nobody did it better than Phillips.  Watch for Albies to be brought along slowly, but once he hits Atlanta, enjoy what will become one of the best young double play combos in the league.

2017 Prediction

3rd in NL East

It sounds like a bit of a stretch, but this team has so much going for it moving into 2017.  They have a young core that ended 2016 with a lot of positive momentum.  They brought in a lot of veteran talent that can stabilize the roster and bring some consistency.  They also have the buzz surrounding the opening of SunTrust Park, which often inspires teams to overachieve.  The Braves are still several years away from truly competing, but they are going to make some great strides in the right direction this season and really surprise a lot of people.

Fearless Prediction

The Atlanta Braves will be over .500 at the All Star Break.

What will lead to a strong season for the Braves is a fast start.  Look for them to be one of the hottest teams in baseball at the start of the season.  Eventually they will cool off as the veterans slow down or get traded and the team hands some spots over to kids like Ozzie Albies.  However, the fast start will have them as the talk of the league for a good portion of the early summer.

2016 Pre-Season Profile: Atlanta Braves

The season may be a week in, but it's not too late to finish up some predictions.  Let's look at the Atlanta Braves!

Last Season

My 2015 Prediction: 3rd in NL East

2015 Result: 67-95, 4th in NL East

The Braves started a true rebuild process in 2015, as the proud dynasty of the 90's and 00's finally came to a true end.  I picked them to finish 3rd because the Braves always seem to find a way to win their share of games.  2015 is the year this stopped.  The Braves were pretty bad.  The only question was had they reached rock bottom yet.

2016 Additions / Subtractions

If anyone wasn't fully convinced the Braves had started to rebuild, this offseason was the clincher.  For all those other teams I have been criticizing in these articles, this is what a rebuild is supposed to look like.  They traded Shelby Miller, the key piece in the Jason Heyward trade the offseason before, to the Diamondbacks.  Then they traded their slick-gloved shortstop Andrelton Simmons to the Angels.  Cameron Maybin left and went to the Tigers as well.  All these trades brought back prospects, the crown jewel being Dansby Swanson, the 2015 number one overall pick by the Diamondbacks.  Ender Inciarte and Erik Aybar were the only major league players acquired through all these trades.  However, this did take the Braves' farm system from one of the worst in the league to one of the best.

Most Important Hitter

Freddie Freeman

With the way the Braves were selling, everyone was wondering if Freddie Freeman would be heading out as well.  Would he be another piece to bring back prospects, or the cornerstone this new team would be build around.  When the 26 year old first baseman was still on the roster in Spring Training, it appears the answer is the latter.  If Freeman truly is the face of this franchise moving forward, he can't get frustrated by the rebuild.  He has to remain the star he is while leading this team into its next great era to come.

Most Important Pitcher

Julio Teheran

Julio Teheran has been touted as the future ace of the Braves for several seasons.  He made the All Star Team in 2014, but followed it up with an average year in 2015.  If he truly is going to be the anchor of this staff moving forward, he has to be better than he was last year.

Player to Watch

Aaron Blair

In an age where top prospects are more valuable than gold, the Diamondbacks gave up a lot for Shelby Miller.  Not only did they trade Swanson to the Braves (who is still a year or so away), but they also gave them Aaron Blair.  Blair is a big, strong righty that will most likely be in the Braves' rotation by the end of the year.  The Braves are hoping some of their new prospects like Blair and Swanson will be mainstays on the Braves roster for the next decade.

2016 Prediction

4th in NL East

Was 2015 rock bottom for the Braves?  I would say no.  2016 will be rock bottom for the Braves as they close down Turner Field.  The only thing keeping them out of the cellar is the Phillies, but these will be the two worst teams in baseball this year.  2017 looks more promising as some of these prospects will start to find their way to the big leagues by the end of this season.  They are really trying the Houston Astros' model of rebuilding.  The goal is to win the World Series in five years.  It seems to have worked in Houston.  Only time will tell if it will work in Atlanta.

Fearless Prediction

The Atlanta Braves will lead the league this year in big league debuts.

This isn't much of a stretch.  However, with as bad as they are and as good as their farm system now is, look for a rotation of players to come up and get a taste of the big leagues for the first time this year.  Inciarte, Aybar, and maybe even Nick Markakis will be shipped off by the end of the year.  Two-thirds of their starting lineup on game 162 I will predict was not on their 25 man roster on Opening Day.