2024 Pre-Season Profile: Chicago Cubs

 #25

The Chicago Cubs had a solid season in 2023, almost making the playoffs.  So ... they fired their manager.  Would the change in leadership lead to more success?

2023 Predictions

#15 - 2nd in NL Central

MIH - Dansby Swanson

MIP - Kyle Hendricks

PTW - Hayden Wesneski

FP - Ian Happ will be traded at the Trade Deadline.

2023 Results

#17 - 83-79, 2nd in NL Central

Highest WAR (Position) - Nico Hoerner

Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Justin Steele

The Cubs were about what I thought they would be in 2023, even though they may have done it in a different way.  Dansby Swanson, their prize of last off-season, was an All Star and got MVP votes despite being average at the plate.  Kyle Hendricks had a pretty good bounce back year also.  The surprises of 2023 were starter Justin Steele, infielder Nico Hoerner, and the resurrection of Cody Bellinger.  They were in the conversation for a playoff spot right to the end, finishing only 1 game out of a Wild Card berth.  By all accounts, 2023 was a pretty successful season from a big brand working their way back to the top.

Additions / Subtractions

So why did they fire their manager?!?  David Ross, a fan favorite back to his playing days, is out.  This move had nothing to do with David Ross and had everything to do with the fact that they could upgrade to Craig Counsell, who left the rival Brewers for the big market and the pig payday.  Three other additions of note: one got a lot of press, one got a little press, and one got very little, but all were significant.  First, Cody Bellinger finally re-signed with the Cubs after his huge turnaround season.  Next, the Cubs signed Japanese import Shota Imanaga to replace Marcus Stroman in the rotation.  He was a top pitcher in Japan and could turn into a huge signing.  Then, a small trade of prospects brought to the Cubs Michael Busch, who will be on the Opening Day roster and is set to have a big impact for the Cubs.

Most Important Hitter

Cody Bellinger

One of the most fascinating free agency cases this off-season was Cody Bellinger.  He's been an MVP, he's been one of the worst hitters in baseball, and last year he made a triumphant return to his old form.  However, heading into free agency, which player do you pay?  Bellinger wanted to be paid like the potential MVP candidate, while clubs were more skeptical that he was back.  The Cubs, more out of necessity, finally paid him, but waited till after Spring Training had already started to do so.  Now, they have significant funds invested in the Bellinger of 2023.  If he continues to show that's once again who he is, the Cubs lineup could be quite potent.  If not, the Cubs could be stuck with the contract they didn't want.

Most Important Pitcher

Shota Imanaga

I thought about going with Justin Steele here after his huge breakout in 2023, but Shota Imanaga might determine the true success of this pitching staff.  Japanese pitchers have had mixed success in the majors.  When they are good, they're really good.  When they're not, they can really struggle.  Imanaga has a chance to be really good and an ace of the staff like Masahiro Tanaka, Yu Darvish, and Shohei Ohtani, but he also could fall into the category of Hideki Irabu, Kei Igawa, and Yusei Kikuchi.

Prospect to Watch

Pete Crow-Armstrong

The Cubs have a bright future, with 7 players in the Top 100 Prospects.  The best of these is ready to break out in 2024 in Pete Crow-Armstrong.  Ranked the 16th best prospect in all of baseball, Crow-Armstrong is a 21 year old lefty outfielder that the Cubs acquired a few years ago in the Javier Baez trade with the Mets.  He is set to be a solid hitter with okay power, but his best tools are his speed and fielding ability.  He is a future Gold Glove winner in centerfield.  The Cubs are excited to give him the opportunity in 2024 to show what he's got.

2024 Predictions

4th in NL Central

The Cubs are on their way back to the top, so why are they so low?  They are in a weird division that literally anyone could win.  Someone has to finish in first, and someone has to finish in last.  Where some divisions are unpredictable because of how many elite teams there are, this division is unpredictable because all the teams are good but not great.  The Cubs are in the middle of that and have enough question marks that they could end up near the bottom of the standings.

Fearless Prediction

Pete Crow-Armstrong will win a 2024 Gold Glove.

Why wait?  If Pete Crow-Armstrong is as good as they say he is, the defense will transfer over immediately.  If the defense is as elite as it is supposed to be, this reality will only be held back by his playing time in his rookie season.  If he hits, he will get enough playing time to make this happen.

2021 Pre-Season Profile: Milwaukee Brewers

 #15

The Milwaukee Brewers did not have a stellar run in the shortened 2020 season, making the playoffs despite a 4th place finish in the division.  Now they are looking at bouncing back and returning to the top of the division in 2021.  Do they have the roster to make it there?

2020 Predictions

#12 - 3rd in NL Central

MIH - Keston Hiura

MIP - Brandon Woodruff

PTW - Drew Rasmussen

2020 Results

#15 - 29-31, 4th in NL Central, lost in Wild Card Round

In 2020, the Brewers finished outside the top two of the division for the first time since 2016.  Only thanks to the expanded playoffs did they make it into the tournament, losing right away to the eventual champion Dodgers.  The majority of their lineup underwhelmed, which has always been the strength of the team.  The bullpen continued to be a strength, with Devin Williams winning Rookie of the Year, only giving up one run all season.  With all that said, 2020 is not to be seen as a successful season for Milwaukee after seeing the heights they can reach the past few seasons.

Additions / Subtractions

The Brewers always approach roster construction differently than any other team.  If you ask an average analyst, they would say the Brewers need more pitching.  Instead, they just add to their lineup depth.  After opting out in 2020, centerfielder Lorenzo Cain is back, and he will be moving around some with the signing of Jackie Bradley Jr.  On the infield, the Brewers signed second baseman Kolten Wong, moving Keston Hiura to first base.  So instead of addressing potential needs, they overload at positions of strength.  The only real subtraction is all-time Brewer Ryan Braun, who looking more and more like he will be calling it a career.

Most Important Hitter

Christian Yelich

The Brewers' lineup begins and ends with Christian Yelich.  After an MVP season in 2018 and an MVP runner up season in 2019, Yelich barely had a batting average over .200.  He did have enough production to post an OPS+ over 100 (111), but that was the lowest OPS+ of his career.  If Yelich is back to MVP-caliber production, the rest of the lineup works and becomes more productive.  If Yelich stays at his 2020 production, the Brewers will be looking for everyone else to step up and make up for lost production from their best player.

Most Important Pitcher

Josh Hader

More than any other team in baseball, the Brewers refuse to focus on their starting rotation.  They have some quality starters, with Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes coming off strong 2020 seasons.  However, the pitching staff of the Brewers is all about the bullpen, and the anchor of that bullpen is still Josh Hader.  Even with the emergence of Devin Williams last season, Hader is the guy.  As with a lot of elite bullpen arms (especially ones that burst on the scene at a young age), production has a potential to slightly fade as the velocity starts to slow down.  From 2017-2019, Hader was literally unhittable as he earned the reputation as the most electric bullpen arm in all of baseball.  With that said, his ERA has slowly been rising each season, reaching a career high 3.79 in 2020.  If the Brewers' bullpen is going to remain elite and the anchor of the pitching staff, Hader needs to reverse this trend and get back to the freak of years past.  If he struggles, he won't even be the closer for very long.

Prospect to Watch

Mario Feliciano

The Brewers have a pretty lackluster farm system, only boasting two Top 100 Prospects and neither are close to the big leagues.  Unless a random arm is going to come up and contribute out of the bullpen, Mario Feliciano might have the best chance of having an impact in 2021.  This 22 year-old catcher is a plus hitter and a solid defender.  The Brewers do have a decent crop of Major League catchers, but you can never have enough catchers, and Feliciano appears to be a future option at the position sooner rather than later.

2021 Prediction

2nd in NL Central

As I have said before, this division is wide open among the top four teams.  This could lead to them beating up on each other, which is why I only predict one team will make the playoffs from the NL Central.  It always confuses me how the Brewers have such great success every year, but I think they will show the sluggish season in 2020 was a sign of things to come.  That result might be different if the NL had a DH in 2021, as no NL roster seems more set up for that than the Brewers.  I mean, how do you carry Daniel Vogelbach on your roster if there is no DH???

Fearless Prediction

The Brewers will have no offensive players make the All Star Team.

This is mainly a statement on what kind of season I think Christian Yelich is going to have.  Is he as bad as he was in 2020?  No.  Is he going to get back to MVP level?  I don't think so.  I see him struggling out of the gate again, and although he might turn things around by the end of the season, I think he misses the All Star Game, leading to no offensive players being good enough to make the Mid-Summer Classic.  The pitching on the other hand has the potential to be well represented.

2019 Pre-Season Profile: Milwaukee Brewers

#9

The Milwaukee Brewers came one game short of the World Series in 2018.  Will 2019 bring about an NL pennant for the Brew Crew?

2018 Predictions

2nd in NL Central, WILD CARD, lose Wild Card Game

The Brewers will trade for an ace by the All Star Game.

2018 Results

96-67, 1st in NL Central, lost in NLCS

The Brewers exceeded most people's expectations in 2018 by making their way all the way to Game 7 of the NLCS before coming up just short.  They took a very unconventional approach to winning, leaning on a stellar bullpen in a way no one has before, especially in the playoffs.  They did trade for Gio Gonzalez at some point, but they viewed it more as depth than an ace.  Their ace was reliever Josh Hader.  Another surprise from 2018 was the MVP season from newly acquired Christian Yelich.  They knew he was good, but I don't know if anyone knew he would be that good.  I claimed their most important hitter was going to be Eric Thames, who found himself out of a job after the emergence of All Star Jesus Aguilar.  Few things went the way they were expected for the Brewers in 2018, but they all worked to their benefit.

Additions / Subtractions

The Brewers are entering 2019 with a very similar roster to what they ended 2018 with.  The biggest acquisition over the offseason was catcher Yasmani Grandal.  They re-signed Mike Moustakas, which was curious considering it kept them with the dilemma of having two third baseman.  The Brewers never seemed to mind overloading one position though.  With that in mind, another move they made was trading away Domingo Santana, an outfielder that hit 30 home runs in 2017 but was out of a job in 2018 after they acquired Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich.  He was sent to the Mariners for versitile speedster Ben Gamel.  They brought in lefty specialist Alex Claudio to help round out their bullpen, but that was about it.

Most Important Hitter

Christian Yelich

Especially in September, the Brewers rode the bat of Christian Yelich all the way to the division title and Yelich's MVP.  With the division actually getting more competitive in 2019, they will rely on Yelich to continue to emerge as one of the elite hitters in the entire league.  Looking at Yelich's career trajectory, and the fact that he is only entering his age 27 season, there is every indication that his success should continue.

Most Important Pitcher

Josh Hader

This is an easy one.  Josh Hader was by far their most important pitcher in 2018 as he was a freak on the mound all season.  His performance in the playoffs was out of this world as he seemed to pitch 2 or 3 innings every game.  It was a huge workload for the 24 year old, putting in 81 innings last season before the playoffs.  Hader seems to have everything aligned for a letdown season.  The Brewers cannot afford that, considering the injuries to closers Jeremy Jeffress and Corey Knebel they are starting the season with.  They need Hader to be as good, if not better, than last season with everything considered.  Looking at all the indicators, that is going to be hard to do.

Prospect to Watch

Keston Hiura

Many were surprised the Brewers brought back Mike Moustakas because it meant that either Moustakas or Shaw would have to play second base.  This move would block their top prospect, Keston Hiura, from having a spot in the majors.  Huira, a 22 year old second baseman picked in the first round of the 2017 draft, probably won't be ready to start the season in the big leagues but will be ready to some point this season.  His debut might need to wait until 2020 with the current roster, but if someone gets injured or if someone struggles, look for Hiura to come up and provide a spark in Milwaukee.

2019 Prediction

2nd in NL Central, WILD CARD, lose in Wild Card Game

Duplicating the success of 2018 is hard for any team to do, especially a team like the Brewers that leans so heavily on the bullpen, the most volatile part of a roster.  They have neglected to upgrade their rotation again.  I think they are good enough to compete all season and even make the playoffs, but they are not going to be able to do what they did last year.

Fearless Prediction

Craig Kimbrel will be a Brewer in 2019.

One of the craziest storylines entering the 2019 season is the fact that we have two All Stars still unsigned and without a team.  Starter Dallas Keuchel and closer Craig Kimbrel are still without a job.  Both of these players would be huge helps for the Brewers.  Knowing how the Brewers operate, and especially how they may be seriously lacking in the bullpen if their injuries are long term, Kimbrel to the Brewers just makes too much sense to not happen.

2017 Pre-Season Profile: Milwaukee Brewers

#27

The Milwaukee Brewers have been irrelevant in the national baseball scene since winning the division in 2011.  How long will it be before they return to a position of significance?

My 2016 Predictions

5th in NL Central

Jonathan Lucroy will be traded to the Texas Rangers for Jurickson Profar.

2016 Results

73-89, 4th in NL Central

Last year, the Brewers finished a little higher than I had anticipated, but this was more because the Reds were a lot worse than I thought.  The Brewers I had about right.  There was nothing that made them stand out in any way.  They are a franchise stuck in mediocrity.  Outside of a resurgence in Ryan Braun and a surprise amount of production out of journeyman Chris Carter, there really wasn't much notable that took place in Milwaukee last season.  However, my fearless prediction last season is one I am most proud of out of all my pre-season picks of 2016.  I may have gotten the details of the trade wrong, but I was right that he was heading to the Texas Rangers.  I think my trade proposal would have gone well too.

Additions / Subtractions

The Brewers' offseason was confusing.  Chris Carter led the league in home runs, so they let him walk and sign elsewhere.  Instead, they replaced him with Eric Thames, a 30 year old player that has spent his last 4 seasons in Japan resurrecting his career.  That is about as unknown a commodity as you get.  Many also thought, just like they did about Lucroy last year, that they needed to trade Ryan Braun, as his stock will never be this high again after his strong 2016.  However, they kept their aging superstar even though they are in an obvious rebuild scenario.  Instead, the Brewers were frustratingly quiet.

Most Important Hitter

Jonathan Villar

One of the bright spots for the Brewers last year was the emergence of Jonathan Villar.  In his first year with the club after being traded from the Astros, Villar showed what kind of player he can be.  Another strong season in 2017 can make the Brewers better and also solidify his position as a potential cornerstone of the Brew Crew moving forward.

Most Important Pitcher

Junior Guerra

The biggest surprise of the 2016 Milwaukee Brewers was Junior Guerra, a 31 year old pitcher just finally getting a shot to prove himself in the big leagues.  He pitched so well, he is being counted on as a potential ace of the staff in 2017.  For the Brewers to move in the right direction, Guerra needs to show that 2016 was a sign of things to come and not a fluke.

Player to Watch

Lewis Brinson

Last year, I said a potential Jonathan Lucroy trade would help set the Brewers up for the future.  The acquisition of top prospect Lewis Brinson was proof that I was right.  Brinson is a highly-touted outfield prospect that seems to have all the tools.  If the Brewers season goes the way it is supposed to, look for Brinson to get his shot in the big leagues sooner rather than later.

2017 Prediction

4th in NL Central

The Brewers are not a bad team.  They are also not good team.  They also show very few signs of changing any of these facts this season.  They might be the most boring team in all of baseball to try and follow.  Their lineup has some flash, but their pitching is mediocre.  They are on a rebuilding track, but that track is looking like it will take longer than most fans want it to.  Look for this season to look a lot like last season: bright spots, but mostly disappointing.

Fearless Prediction

Ryan Braun will be traded by the end of the season.

I don't have as strong of a prediction on this one as I did with the Lucroy trade last year (my best guess is he will go to the Dodgers), but the reasoning is almost identical.  It is time to fully commit to the rebuild, and that means it is time for a guy like Ryan Braun to bring back some prospects.  Also, this trade would clear a spot in the outfield for Lewis Brinson to come in.  Look for this blockbuster trade to happen.