2024 Pre-Season Profile: Boston Red Sox

 #19

The Boston Red Sox are stuck in a division with four juggernauts.  Will they be able to enter the conversation of the AL East contenders at all in 2024?

2023 Predictions

#23 - 5th in AL East

MIH - Masataka Yoshida

MIP - Chris Sale

PTW - Triston Casas

FP - This is Chris Sale's last season for the Red Sox.

2023 Results

#20 - 78-84, 5th in AL East

Highest WAR (Position) - Rafael Devers

Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Chris Martin

There wasn't really any other result for the Red Sox in 2023.  The other four team in the division are peaking while the Sox are somewhere in between.  Their superstar third baseman keeps doing what he should, but there second best player in terms of WAR was a reliever (that wasn't their closer).  With that said, you could call their season a success simply for getting so close to .500.  It shows that the AL East in 2023 might have been the toughest division in baseball history.

Additions / Subtractions

My prediction came true when the Red Sox traded Chris Sale to the Braves.  They also sent Alex Verdugo, the prize of the Mookie Betts trade, to the hated Yankees.  Justin Turner is gone, Christian Arroyo is gone, Adam Duvall is gone, James Paxton is gone.  Most of these were replaced internally with youngsters.  The main off-season acquisitions were outfielder Tyler O'Neill and starter Lucas Giolito who never got to throw a pitch before blowing out his elbow in Spring Training.

Most Important Hitter

Trevor Story

Trevor Story seemed to be one of those superstars looking for a payday that no one wanted to give him in the 2022 off-season.  Eventually the Red Sox gave him a 6 year deal.  Now, entering the third year of that deal, Story has only played 137 mediocre games in Boston.  The Red Sox need Story to stay healthy and productive if they are to have any chance of being relevant this season.

Most Important Pitcher

Brayan Bello

Chris Sale is gone.  Lucas Giolito is injured.  All of a sudden, 24 year old Brayan Bello is the only one left to anchor this rotation.  They have a lot of faith in the youngster, giving him an extension this off-season following a solid 2023.  With that said, he needs to take some huge strides forward if he is to be a relied upon ace.

Prospect to Watch

Ceddanne Rafaela

There are several options for this spot for the 14th best farm system in baseball, sporting 4 players in the Top 100.  Although Marcelo Mayer might end up being the best rookie in 2024, I'm going with the one that made the Opening Day roster.  Ceddanne Rafaela has been given center field to start the season, and it's easy to see why.  He is an elite defender.  Even though the bat is still developing, his defense will keep him in the lineup and help the team this season.

2024 Prediction

5th in AL East

This division is so tough once again.  The other four teams in the division could easily all make the playoffs.  The Red Sox are kinda stuck.  They are too good to tank and rebuild, but not good enough to contend in this division.  They might be winning the AL Central, but they will once again sit around .500 and ride the cellar all season.

Fearless Prediction

This will be Alex Cora's last season as Red Sox manager.

Manager of the Red Sox right now has to be an impossible job.  You're expected to be one of the elite teams, but you don't have the resources to compete.  You're expected to be a big budget superteam, yet you traded away one of the best players in baseball a few seasons ago.  Fans expect to make the postseason, but your best season might still find the team in the cellar.  Alex Cora could be fired for PR purposes, showing the fans they don't accept mediocrity.  I could also see him stepping away after the season simply for getting away from the pressure of an impossible situation.

2023 Pre-Season Profile: Boston Red Sox

 #23

The Boston Red Sox went from cellar in 2020 to the ALCS in 2021 back to the cellar in 2022.  Will 2023 see another bounce back?  Or will they stay in the cellar?

2022 Predictions

#11 - 2nd in AL East, WILD CARD, lose in Wild Card Round

MIH - Trevor Story

MIP - Chris Sale

PTW - Jeter Downs

2022 Results

#17 - 78-84, 5th in AL East

Highest WAR (Position) - Xander Bogaerts

Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Michael Wacha

The Red Sox got hurt by being in the best division in baseball in 2022.  Only finishing 6 games under .500, they were still only good for last place in the AL East.  Thanks to more injuries, Chris Sale only pitched 2 games in 2022, bringing his grand total of 11 starts in the last 3 seasons.  Trevor Story had an okay first season in Boston.  The season wasn't bad, but when you are chasing down the rest of that division, it feels like they had a long way to go.

Additions / Subtractions

No fan base is more dejected entering the 2023 season than the Boston Red Sox.  They watched cornerstones Xander Bogaerts and J.D. Martinez leave in free agency.  Tommy Pham and Eric Hosmer moved on after mid-season acquisitions.  Starters Michael Wacha, Rich Hill, and Nathan Eovaldi left in free agency.  Jeter Downs, one of the centerpieces of the prospect haul in the Mookie Betts trade, gets DFA'ed, marking a sign of admitting they lost that trade.  Last offseason's prize signing Trevor Story is out for most of the year.  They did bring in some talent with starter Corey Kluber, closer Kenley Jansen, infielders Justin Turner and Adalberto Mondesi, and outfielders Adam Duvall and Japanese import Masataka Yoshida.  That's some huge turnover!  There was also a lot more star power walking out the door than walking in.  At least they were able to re-sign Rafael Devers to a big extension or else this offseason would have been a colossal failure.  Otherwise he would have been the next Red Sox superstar to be traded or leave in free agency.

Most Important Hitter

Masataka Yoshida

The biggest wild cards on any roster are Japanese imports.  These superstars in the Japanese league are trying to be the next Ichiro or Hideki Matsui or Shohei Ohtani.  Sometimes they become the next Kazuo Matsui, Kosuke Fukudome, or Tsuyoshi Shinjo.  The latest to make the transition is Masataka Yoshida.  He is slated to be the keeper of the Green Monster in leftfield to start the season, but how will he transition?  Looking at the rest of the offseason the Red Sox had, it looks like they are expecting Yoshida to come in and produce immediately to help pick up the massive hole left behind by the likes of Bogaerts and Martinez.  If he hits, the Red Sox are in much better shape than some think.  If he misses, the Red Sox may be in some trouble.

Most Important Pitcher

Chris Sale

Chris Sale is being paid like the ace of the Red Sox.  For the last 3 seasons, he has been cashing the checks with no production.  He is signed on this megadeal for at least the next two seasons.  If he can get on the field, he has the tools to still be one of the best pitchers in baseball ... I think.  Have the injuries aged his body too much?  He is entering his age 34 season.  He is not a young pitcher anymore.  The Red Sox are relying on him being back at the elite level because there is not much depth and top end talent behind him.

Prospect to Watch

Triston Casas

The Red Sox may have 4 prospects in MLB's Top 100 right now, but their system is ranked 19th according to Bleacher Report due to a lack of depth.  One of their top prospects is Triston Casas.  Ranked the 23rd best prospect in baseball and the 2nd best prospect in the Red Sox system, Casas is slated to be the starting first baseman on Opening Day in Boston.  Casas is a big dude with a big bat.  At 6'4" and 252lb, Casas could easily be a 40 homer guy.  Barely staying under the threshold to maintain rookie status, Casas played in 27 in 2022 for the Red Sox and homered 5 times.  He is definitely a bat the Red Sox are hoping will pop in 2023.

2023 Prediction

5th in AL East

I don't really see any other outcome for the Red Sox this season.  They watched too much talent leave and didn't bring in enough to make up for it.  Even with last year's talent, they were in the cellar.  Also, their division is so stacked.  This division had 3 teams in the playoffs in 2022 with the Orioles just missing.  There's really no other option for the Red Sox.  Either something goes drastically wrong in Tampa, Toronto, Baltimore, or the Bronx, or ... the Red Sox finish in the cellar for the third time in 4 seasons.

Fearless Prediction

This is Chris Sale's last season for the Red Sox.

At some point, the Red Sox have to realize they need to stop trying to half compete and just need to sell off and rebuild.  I think that starts with Chris Sale.  If he pitches well this year, he gets traded at the deadline or in the offseason to a contender who thinks they are one arm away.  If he pitches poorly, they might just eat the money and let him go.  Either way, this could be the end of his road in Boston.

2021 Pre-Season Profile: Boston Red Sox

 #26

The Boston Red Sox had a tumultuous year in 2020, losing their best player, their ace, and their manager.  Will 2021 bring a quick rebound, or are they stuck in an impending rebuild?

2020 Predictions

#21 - 4th in AL East

MIH - Xander Bogaerts

MIP - Nathan Eovaldi

PTW - Tanner Houck

2020 Results

#27 - 5th in AL East

Everyone knew the Red Sox were going to take a step back in 2020, but I don't know if anyone thought it would be a step back that far.  They dropped all the way to the cellar without Mookie Betts, Chris Sale, and Alex Cora leading the way.  They did have some sparks, as Alex Verdugo proved to be a potential budding star they got back in the Betts deal.  My prospect to watch also flashed in the few opportunities he got on the mound in 2020.

Additions / Subtractions

The Red Sox had a fascinating offseason in that they were not in the full "go for it" mode you tend to see out of them.  They made some interesting additions in signing Kike Hernandez to replace the (finally) retiring Dustin Pedroia at second base.  They signed Hunter Renfroe to man a corner outfield spot.  They traded for Adam Ottavino from the Yankees.  They brought in upside guys like Garrett Richards and Nick Pivetta for their rotation.  These are nice little moves, but not the type of move you expect to see come out of Boston.  One of the more fascinating moves of the offseason for the Red Sox was the trade of Andrew Benintendi to the Royals.  The biggest transaction overall has to be the re-hiring of Alex Cora after his one year suspension/hiatus.

Most Important Hitter

Rafael Devers

With as much success as he had as early as he had it, it's easy to forget how young Rafael Devers is.  Entering only his age 24 season, Devers still hasn't hit his peak.  He is one of the main pieces of what should be the new core of the next wave of Red Sox.  His bat has always been really good, but his defense was pretty bad last year.  For the Red Sox to bounce back, Devers needs to round out his overall game and finally become the perennial All Star that everyone thought he would become.

Most Important Pitcher

Eduardo Rodriguez

One of the biggest things that doomed the 2020 campaign for the Red Sox was the depleted rotation.  Not only did you have an injured and recovering Chris Sale, but you also had an entire lost year from Eduardo Rodriguez, who struggled through a bad case of COVID and never was healthy enough to play.  One of the most consistent and steady pitchers in the league over the last couple years, Rodriguez is going to try and make a comeback and show that he is back to full strength.  With Chris Sale probably not ready to start the season, his presence in the rotation will be key.

Prospect to Watch

Bobby Dalbec

Ranked the 93rd best prospect in baseball on mlb.com, Bobby Dalbec had a really strong look in the big leagues last season.  Dalbec and his huge power will get every opportunity to prove that he is a middle-of-the-order bat for the Red Sox moving forward.

2021 Predictions

5th in AL East

I'm not really sure why I am still so low on the Red Sox this season.  They have a lot of great pieces in place, they have their manager back, and they're the freaking Red Sox and are never down for that long.  With all that said, it feels like the step back they took last year is not quite ready for a bounce back yet.  They could easily end up in 4th instead, but the team they are fighting with at the bottom of the division seems to have a lot more momentum on their side.

Fearless Prediction

J.D. Martinez will be traded before the 2022 season.

Entering the 2021 season, J.D. Martinez is the only regular in the Red Sox lineup that is over 30.  There is an obvious youth movement hitting Boston, and if the team sees the disappointments they had last season, look for them to unload another aging old contract from their roster to improve the prospects of their next big run coming up soon.