2023 Pre-Season Profile: San Diego Padres

 #6

The San Diego Padres continued to spend more than almost any other team this offseason.  Will they get over the hump and win a World Series in 2023?

2022 Predictions

#6 - 2nd in NL West, WILD CARD, lose in NLDS

MIH - Manny Machado

MIP - Yu Darvish

PTW - C.J. Abrams

2022 Results

#4 - 89-73, 2nd in NL West, WILD CARD, lost in NLCS

Highest WAR (Position) - Manny Machado

Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Yu Darvish

The 2022 San Diego Padres could be summed up with three players: one was one of the best in the league, one never showed up, and one showed up mid-season.  First, Manny Machado may have had his best season ever, earning a runner up finish in the MVP race.  Second, Fernando Tatis Jr. got hurt before the season started in a motorcycle accident, and right before he was ready to return, got suspended for PED's, potentially tainting an entire career of one of baseball's brightest young stars.  Third, the Padres showed they are willing to continue to double down by trading for one of the best hitters in the game Juan Soto at the Trade Deadline.  They rode the talent on the field to the NLCS, but no one was beating the Phillies in their run to the NL pennant.

Additions / Subtractions

Just when you think the Padres may have reached their limit in payroll, they doubled down again.  They seemed to be in on every big name free agent, finally landing shortstop Xander Bogaerts on (another) huge deal.  They signed Manny Machado to an extension that was (another) huge deal.  They solidified the rotation with Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha.  Then, as if they didn't have enough already, they went to the veteran market and picked up Nelson Cruz and Matt Carpenter.  There were a couple subtractions, like Jurickson Profar, Wil Myers, Sean Manaea, and Mike Clevinger, but I think the additions outweigh the subtractions.

Most Important Hitter

Fernando Tatis Jr.

One of the most fascinating storylines in all of baseball entering the 2023 season is what will happen with Fernando Tatis Jr.  The last time we saw him, he was an MVP candidate, leading the league in home runs, and earning every bit of his newly signed 14 year megadeal.  However, even then his durability and overall health were being questioned as he was starting to see some time in the outfield to protect the wear and tear on his body.  Then he gets hurt making a dumb decision.  Then he compounds that by getting caught for PED's.  Then the Padres go out and sign another shortstop to an 11 year deal.  Now Tatis will have to wait another month before he finally is allowed back from his suspension, and he essentially has lost his job.  He finished 2021 as possibly the face of baseball.  Now he is being looked at as, at best, the 4th best player on his team.  What will he be this year?  How much did PED's possibly impact his past performance, or was it another dumb decision during his injury recovery?  Who is this player???  He's only 23 year old too!  Does he go back to his MVP-caliber 2021 form?  If he does, the Padres will be special.  Is he put off by losing his job, switching positions, and still sitting out?  If so, he could be a negative influence in that locker room that destroys one of the most talented teams in the league.  No one knows!  Watching what happens with Tatis will be one of the biggest storylines of the entire season.

Most Important Pitcher

Blake Snell

The Padres will roll out possibly the best lineup in all of baseball in 2023, however their pitching staff has a lot more questions in it.  One of the players that could be an X-factor for the whole pitching staff in Blake Snell.  In 2018, Snell was on another planet for the Rays.  He had a 217 ERA+ that year and won the Cy Young.  Since then, he hasn't even sniffed that level of production.  His best season since was the COVID-shortened 2020 season with a 127 ERA+.  Last season was next best at 111 ERA+, but he only threw 128 innings.  Now he is entering his third season with the Padres, which is also his contract year at age 30.  If he can return to some level of dominance, it not only will solve a lot of possible questions with the Padres pitching staff, but it will also earn him one last big payday heading into free agency next offseason.

Prospect to Watch

Jay Groome

With all the big spending and blockbuster trades the Padres have done the last few seasons, it has completely depleted their farm system.  Ranked in the bottom third of MLB farm systems, the Padres only tout 2 prospects in the Top 100, with neither ready to contribute this season.  In fact, only 2 prospects in their top 10 even have a chance to play in the big leagues this season.  The more intriguing of these prospects in their 9th best prospect, Jay Groome.  When drafted in 2016, this 6'6" 262lb left-handed pitcher was thought to be one of the top prospects in the draft.  Then injuries and missed time completely derailed his development to the point that the Padres acquired him as an afterthought last season from the Red Sox in the Eric Hosmer trade.  He stuff isn't elite, but he still has pretty good makeup.  Look for him to get a chance to earn a rotation spot if the injury bug hits the Padres this season.

2023 Prediction

2nd in NL West, WILD CARD, lose in NLDS

It might be a hot take to have the Padres this low, but there are just way too many elite National League teams.  With that said, the Padres are probably the most talented team in the league.  They also feel like they could completely implode on themselves.  They do have one of the best managers around in Bob Melvin, and they have basically a player/coach at this point in Nelson Cruz.  So hopefully that stabilizes some of the volatility.  There are still a lot of questions with their rotation.  When they win the division and go on to win the World Series, this will look like a really bad take, but it's what I'm going with right now.

Fearless Prediction

One of the Padres superstars will not be on their roster at the start of the 2024 season.

The spending has to stop at some point, right?  Right?!?  They have paid out huge money to Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Yu Darvish.  However, they have yet to lock up Juan Soto beyond this season.  He might need the biggest contract of all of them.  I could see the Padres let him walk in free agency ... or maybe they sign him and trade Tatis ... or maybe they trade Soto mid-season to get something for him ... or maybe they just double down one more time and sign Soto and just keep it all.  They have to run out of money at some point though ... I think.

2021 Pre-Season Profile: Boston Red Sox

 #26

The Boston Red Sox had a tumultuous year in 2020, losing their best player, their ace, and their manager.  Will 2021 bring a quick rebound, or are they stuck in an impending rebuild?

2020 Predictions

#21 - 4th in AL East

MIH - Xander Bogaerts

MIP - Nathan Eovaldi

PTW - Tanner Houck

2020 Results

#27 - 5th in AL East

Everyone knew the Red Sox were going to take a step back in 2020, but I don't know if anyone thought it would be a step back that far.  They dropped all the way to the cellar without Mookie Betts, Chris Sale, and Alex Cora leading the way.  They did have some sparks, as Alex Verdugo proved to be a potential budding star they got back in the Betts deal.  My prospect to watch also flashed in the few opportunities he got on the mound in 2020.

Additions / Subtractions

The Red Sox had a fascinating offseason in that they were not in the full "go for it" mode you tend to see out of them.  They made some interesting additions in signing Kike Hernandez to replace the (finally) retiring Dustin Pedroia at second base.  They signed Hunter Renfroe to man a corner outfield spot.  They traded for Adam Ottavino from the Yankees.  They brought in upside guys like Garrett Richards and Nick Pivetta for their rotation.  These are nice little moves, but not the type of move you expect to see come out of Boston.  One of the more fascinating moves of the offseason for the Red Sox was the trade of Andrew Benintendi to the Royals.  The biggest transaction overall has to be the re-hiring of Alex Cora after his one year suspension/hiatus.

Most Important Hitter

Rafael Devers

With as much success as he had as early as he had it, it's easy to forget how young Rafael Devers is.  Entering only his age 24 season, Devers still hasn't hit his peak.  He is one of the main pieces of what should be the new core of the next wave of Red Sox.  His bat has always been really good, but his defense was pretty bad last year.  For the Red Sox to bounce back, Devers needs to round out his overall game and finally become the perennial All Star that everyone thought he would become.

Most Important Pitcher

Eduardo Rodriguez

One of the biggest things that doomed the 2020 campaign for the Red Sox was the depleted rotation.  Not only did you have an injured and recovering Chris Sale, but you also had an entire lost year from Eduardo Rodriguez, who struggled through a bad case of COVID and never was healthy enough to play.  One of the most consistent and steady pitchers in the league over the last couple years, Rodriguez is going to try and make a comeback and show that he is back to full strength.  With Chris Sale probably not ready to start the season, his presence in the rotation will be key.

Prospect to Watch

Bobby Dalbec

Ranked the 93rd best prospect in baseball on mlb.com, Bobby Dalbec had a really strong look in the big leagues last season.  Dalbec and his huge power will get every opportunity to prove that he is a middle-of-the-order bat for the Red Sox moving forward.

2021 Predictions

5th in AL East

I'm not really sure why I am still so low on the Red Sox this season.  They have a lot of great pieces in place, they have their manager back, and they're the freaking Red Sox and are never down for that long.  With all that said, it feels like the step back they took last year is not quite ready for a bounce back yet.  They could easily end up in 4th instead, but the team they are fighting with at the bottom of the division seems to have a lot more momentum on their side.

Fearless Prediction

J.D. Martinez will be traded before the 2022 season.

Entering the 2021 season, J.D. Martinez is the only regular in the Red Sox lineup that is over 30.  There is an obvious youth movement hitting Boston, and if the team sees the disappointments they had last season, look for them to unload another aging old contract from their roster to improve the prospects of their next big run coming up soon.

2017 Pre-Season Profile: Boston Red Sox

#1

The Boston Red Sox saw the retirement of one of their all-time greats in David Ortiz in 2016.  Will 2017 be a let down year, or will it see the emergence of the next generation of all-time Red Sox greats?

My 2016 Predictions

2nd in AL East

David Price will spend time on the DL in 2016.

2016 Results

93-69, 1st in AL East, lose in ALDS

The Red Sox had a great season in 2016.  After a disappointing finish in the cellar in 2015, the team bounced back, led by a farewell campaign from David Ortiz that Hollywood couldn't have written.  Led by their 40 year old slugger, and some young new stars, the Red Sox won the division.  Once in the playoffs, they ran into the buzzsaw that was the Cleveland Indians.  As for my Fearless Prediction, it appeared to just be premature.  I said the workload of David Price was going to catch up with him.  After leading the league in innings pitched in 2016, Price is starting the 2017 season on the DL which might result in Tommy John surgery.

Additions / Subtractions

The biggest subtraction is obviously the loss of David Ortiz.  Despite what many people hoped, he did indeed retire.  He has been replaced in the lineup by Mitch Moreland, a defense-first first baseman that allows Hanley Ramirez to inherit the DH spot.  Otherwise, the lineup didn't change much.  As far as their pitching goes, the Red Sox once again won the lottery.  After signing the biggest fish last season in David Price, they traded for the biggest fish on the market this year in Chris Sale.  They gave up a good portion of their farm system to get him, but get him they did.

Most Important Hitter

Pablo Sandoval

The success of Pablo Sandoval's season might be more important to Pablo Sandoval than the Red Sox.  After signing a big free agent contract with the Red Sox a few years ago, Pablo Sandoval has been an epic disappointment.  His 2016 season was defined by being overweight, breaking his belt on a swing, and a season-ending injury that dd the Red Sox a favor because now they had an excuse not to play him.  After several attempts to fill the third base hole last season did not work as well as they had hoped, the Red Sox are giving The Artist Formerly Known as Kung Fu Panda one more chance to show why they paid him so much money.  If this season goes well, Sandoval will be a candidate for Comeback Player of the Year.  If this season goes poorly, not only will the Red Sox move on, but Sandoval's career will most likely be over.

Most Important Pitcher

Rick Porcello

Entering the 2016 season, everyone was talking about how the Red Sox signed David Price.  However, it was Rick Porcello that got the headlines by the end of the season, winning the AL Cy Young.  Now the Red Sox have added Chris Sale to the top of the rotation, giving them three established aces.  At least that is the hope.  More times than not, when a top-notch pitcher changes teams the first season is a bit of a letdown.  At the same time, David Price is on the shelf with no guarantee that he pitches at all this season.  Rick Porcello is going to be counted on as the stabilizing force in that rotation to hold it together no matter what happens with Sale and Price.  For someone who just had his first elite season, that might be too lofty a task for Porcello.

Player to Watch

Andrew Benintendi

This is an easy one.  The only reason he still qualifies as a rookie was an injury last season that kept his game total down below the limit.  However, Benintendi burst on the scene in 2016, showing he was ready to break out and be a star.  This season, he is the Opening Day rightfielder for the Red Sox.  He will not only be a fun rookie to watch, but he is being counted on to join their young core of Betts, Bogaerts, and Bradley.  Add Benintendi to that ... talk about the new "Killer B's!"

2017 Prediction

1st in AL East, win the World Series

This team is loaded.  Their lineup is possibly the best in the league, led by Mookie Betts, who has the potential to join Mike Trout as the two best players in the league.  Their pitching is elite and deep, even if David Price ends up not pitching this season.  This new core of stars had a taste of the postseason last year, and now they are ready to take it all the way.  If they are able to stay together, this might be the making of a dynasty.

Fearless Prediction

Chris Sale will win the AL Cy Young.  Mookie Betts will win the AL MVP.

Sale's career has been building to this.  He has been on this slow rise to dominance, but has yet to break through as the best pitcher in the league.  I think the biggest reason for this is the fact that he has yet to play on a team good enough to support him.  The White Sox have yet to contend since Sale's career has taken off.  Now he is on one of the most talented rosters in the league.  Combine that with Sale's dominance in the prime of his career, and this could be a special season for Chris Sale.  For Mookie Betts, his career has been building as well.  Last season, he took second in the MVP voting to Mike Trout, however he is close to eclipsing and possibly passing Trout.  Winning Cy Young, MVP, and the World Series is rare, but not a far-fetched prediction considering the circumstance.