2021 Pre-Season Profile: Toronto Blue Jays

 #5

The Toronto Blue Jays' young roster went through a tumultuous 2020 season and still made the playoffs.  Was that a sign of things to come for the team to the North?

2020 Predictions

#20 - 3rd in AL East

MIH - Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

MIP - Hyun Jin Ryu

PTW - Nate Pearson

2020 Results

#11 - 32-28, 3rd in AL East, lost in Wild Card Round

The Blue Jays benefitted from the expanded playoffs by sneaking into one of the last two spots made available.  After having a winning record and playing their home games in their AAA stadium in Buffalo, the young Blue Jays had to be excited about the success they saw.  The team of baby boomers is filled with second generation MLB talent ready to burst into stardom.  They took huge steps forward in 2020 that have to excite Blue Jay fans.

Additions / Subtractions

The Blue Jays made one of the biggest splashes of the offseason by landing centerfielder George Springer in a major free agent deal.  He will serve as a veteran presence with a lot of postseason experience to lead this team of kids.  They also surprised by signing shortstop Marcus Semien to come in and man second base.  As far as the pitching is concerned, mid-season acquisition Taijuan Walker signed a free agent deal with the Mets so the Mets traded Steven Matz to the Blue Jays.  The Jays also signed Kirby Yates to be their closer, but a recent injury will require Tommy John surgery and put him out for all of the 2021 season at least.

Most Important Hitter

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

It almost feels like some people are ready to give up on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as the can't miss phenom everyone thought he was going to be.  People thought he would hit the big leagues and immediately win a Triple Crown.  Instead, he has been good but not great, having 106 and 116 OPS+ totals in his first two seasons.  Not having the immediate success everyone thought has led to him being passed up by some of his young teammates like Bo Bichette and Cavan Biggio.  With as long as we have been talking about him, it's easy to forget that Vlad Jr. is only 22 years old.  He entered camp this year in the best shape of his life, losing a lot of weight in the offseason.  Although the Blue Jays saw success in 2020 without the best version of Vlad Jr., seeing him fulfill his potential is one of the ways this team takes the next step forward.

Most Important Pitcher

Steven Matz

The new acquisition was originally touted as one of the Mets phenoms when he came up alongside the likes of Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, and Noah Syndergaard.  It seems like the high expectations that Steven Matz never quite met required a change of scenery to breathe life back into his career.  Now he has that fresh start on a rising team.  Hyun Jin Ryu established himself as the ace last season, and several others from the rotation are starting the season injured.  It definitely gives Steven Matz an opportunity to make an immediate impact on his new club.

Prospect to Watch

Nate Pearson

He had a chance to make a huge impact in 2020 for the Blue Jays, but flamethrower Nate Pearson only saw the field for 5 games in the shortened COVID season.  With that said, he did make the postseason roster and pitched some critical innings.  Now, this 6th best prospect in all of baseball is ready to start the season in the rotation for the Jays (after a hopefully short stint on the IL) and be a crucial part of this team's pitching staff.

2021 Prediction

2nd in AL East, WILD CARD, lose in ALDS

In 2020, the Blue Jays snuck into the playoffs and couldn't win a game once they got there.  Now they have a taste of the postseason and want to get back.  George Springer I think is possibly the most impactful signing of the offseason as he brings that veteran experience while still being in his prime to such a young team.  It will be interesting to see if there is any impact with the Blue Jays once again not being allowed to play in Toronto to start the season thanks to border restrictions.  I see this lineup taking off and leading them to the ALDS regardless of where they play.

Fearless Prediction

The Blue Jays will trade for a closer before Memorial Day.

With Kirby Yates going down for the year, it leaves a huge hole in the back end of the Blue Jays' bullpen.  Before Memorial Day, they will identify a top end reliever with a hot start on a team that won't be competing this year (maybe someone like Craig Kimbrel for the Cubs?), and they will pull off a deal to make sure their bullpen doesn't cost them a chance to have a special team in 2021.

2019 Pre-Season Profile: New York Mets

#12

The New York Mets made several unconventional moves this offseason that set them up to try and win now.  Will this lead them to the playoffs in 2019?

2018 Predictions

4th in NL East

The Mets rotation will not see one trip through feature Syndergaard, deGrom, Harvey, Matz, and Wheeler again.

2018 Results

77-85, 4th in NL East

The Mets, under rookie manager Mickey Callaway, struggled through 2018.  Their main struggle was scoring runs, as the Cy Young winning ace could only squeeze out 10 wins.  Outside of Jacob deGrom, the Mets were about as inconsequential as could be last season.  As for my prediction around the rotation, I am not sure if they ever made it through one time with those five, but the fact that Matt Harvey was out of town barely a month into the season shows that I was onto something.

Additions / Subtractions

The Mets had one of the most fascinating offseasons.  It all started with their decision to hire an agent, Brodie Van Wagenen, as their new general manager.  He came in claiming to view personnel decisions from a different point of view which was shown in every move they made.  The biggest move was trading outfielder Jay Bruce, along with several top prospects to the Mariners for second baseman Robinson Cano and closer Edwin Diaz.  They also signed veterans Wilson Ramos and Jed Lowrie.  They traded for Keon Broxton, who looks to be their future centerfielder.  Where many teams stay away from veterans these days, Van Wagenen's philosophy seems to be to embrace the veteran to help you win now.  Every acquisition they made, except for Diaz and Broxton, was for a veteran most teams didn't even want to consider because of their age.  However, the Mets knew they needed offense to try and accompany their pitching, and it had to come from somewhere.  The quickest way to get it is through veteran proven commodities.

Most Important Hitter

Michael Conforto

Although veterans like Cano, Lowrie, and Frazier are the names everyone recognizes in the heart of the Mets lineup, their best hitter might be Michael Conforto.  The Mets have been touting Conforto as the future anchor of their lineup for several years, and he has really started to come into his own recently.  He made the All Star Team in 2017 in career year.  Then in 2018, he played his first full season without injury, playing in 153 games and hitting 28 home runs and 82 RBI's.  Although his production has been moving up, he now needs to emerge as a leader.  With veteran hitters surrounding him in the lineup, this might be the year he takes the next step into being the superstar leader the Mets have been waiting for him to be.

Most Important Pitcher

Steven Matz

When Steven Matz burst onto the scene in 2015 for the Mets World Series run, he was quickly touted as the fifth ace in a massive rotation.  Syndergaard and deGrom have definitely come through on that promise.  Matt Harvey, thought to be the best of the group in 2015, is now on his third team in 12 months.  The jury is still out on Zack Wheeler as he was out with injuries for a couple seasons.  Then there is Matz, the only lefty of the group.  He has shown signs of greatness over the last few years, but it has been inconsistent.  2018 was the first season he topped 150 innings in his career, however his ERA+ shows he was slightly under league average in his production.  If the Mets want to be elite, either Wheeler or Matz have to join deGrom and Syndergaard at the top of their rotation.  With Matz being the lefty, he is more crucial to be the one to emerge.

Prospect to Watch

Peter Alonso

One thing with a veteran team is you better have depth.  The Mets do.  Entering the offseason, Peter Alonso was probably slated as the Opening Day starting first baseman.  Now, with all acquisitions, that debut may have to wait (thanks to some injuries, maybe not...).  Alonso is a big presence at first base and at the plate.  Before the end of this season, watch for him to emerge as the everyday first baseman in Queens.

2019 Prediction

2nd in NL East

I love what the Mets did this offseason.  They needed offense, and they went out and bought one.  Going after the veterans is not popular these days, but that is more because everyone is more focused on sustainable success.  If you are looking at short term success, it isn't a bad way to go.  Look for the offense to show up and allow their pitching to actually win games this year.  I don't know how sustainable this roster will be after 2019, but they should be fun to watch this season as they come up just short of the playoffs.

Fearless Prediction

Noah Syndergaard will finish higher in the Cy Young voting than Jacob deGrom.

I am a huge Noah Syndergaard fan.  The guy is a freak athlete.  Now that he is healthy again, he has the opportunity this year to show how good he is.  For him to finish ahead deGrom in the Cy Young voting would be quite a feat considering deGrom is coming off of possibly the most dominant season a pitcher has had in the 21st century.  It is hard to repeat that level of success, but his teammate will pick up where he left off.  This seems to be what the Mets have done over the last few years.  Their aces take turns being the best pitcher on the staff.  This year should be no different.

2018 Pre-Season Profile: New York Mets

#21

The New York Mets fought through injuries in 2017 to have a poor season in a poor division.  Will a return of some key pieces and a change in manager bring about a better result in 2018?

2017 Predictions

2nd in NL East, WILD CARD, lose in NLDS

Noah Syndergaard will win the NL Cy Young.

2017 Results

70-92, 4th in NL East

The Mets have built their roster on a dynamic young pitching staff with just enough offense to support it.  Well, when only one of their five aces makes more than 20 starts in the season (including only 7 stars from Noah Syndergaard, the best of the bunch), it sets the team up for failure.  When Thor went down early in the season, obviously my prediction went out the window with his season.

Additions / Subtractions

The Mets made some very interesting moves over the offseason.  First, after trading away Jay Bruce to the Indians mid-season last year, the Mets were able to bring him back.  Then they brought in veterans Adrian Gonzalez and Todd Frazier to man the corner infield spots.  They brought in starter Jason Vargas to bring some stability to their oft-injured rotation.  The biggest move the Mets made was letting manager Terry Collins go and bringing in Mickey Callaway, former pitching coach of the Indians, as their new manager.

Most Important Hitter

Yoenis Cespedes

Like I said, their team is built around their pitching.  However, ever since the Mets traded for Cespedes in 2015, their offense has lived and died with his production.  When he is hot, the Mets are hot.  When he is cold, the Mets are cold.  If the Mets are going to have a successful season, Cespedes needs to be MVP caliber.

Most Important Pitcher

Noah Syndergaard

Before his injury last season, Noah Syndergaard had been emerging as one of the best pitchers in all of baseball.  As such an imposing figure on the mound and with such electric stuff, it is easy to see why Thor is so good.  The Mets are expecting Syndergaard to be back to the freak he was before the injury, and the early returns from Spring Training say he is.  An injury-free season from Thor will make for a much better season for the Mets.

Prospect to Watch

Marcos Molina

One problem with the Mets is they currently have a poor farm system.  No players in their farm system are in baseball's Top 100 prospects, and none of their top 7 prospects are expected to make their debuts in the big leagues in the next year or two.  The best prospect that is closest to the Show is Marcos Molina, a 23 year old Dominican pitcher.  A recent elbow injury derailed some of his progress, and he has a lot of pitchers on the roster in front of him, but a lively arm like his might be able to help out the bullpen down the stretch.

2018 Prediction

4th in AL East

I do not have high hopes for the Mets this year.  A manager that is pitching-centric will help, but I don't know if we will ever see the Syndergaard/deGrom/Harvey/Matz/Wheeler rotation dominate the league like everyone thought they would when they first debuted.  Their offense is relying on comeback years from some aging veterans.  The arms are not going to stay healthy.  Add that to the fact that some of the other teams in the division have young cores that are ready to explode onto the scene, and the Mets will struggle to gain ground.  2018 could be entertaining for the Mets, but not successful.

Fearless Prediction

The Mets rotation will not see one trip through feature Syndergaard, deGrom, Harvey, Matz, and Wheeler again.

At this point, it looks like it would take an injury from Jason Vargas for this to happen in 2018 (and all of them to get and remain healthy).  It is easy to see a scenario where guys like Matt Harvey or Zack Wheeler end up traded or on other rosters by the end of the season.  With other starters like Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman in the fold, they are definitely starting pitcher wealthy and could part with some to build up the struggling farm system.  This dream rotation they built seems to be over before it ever really got started.  The encouraging part is the Mets might be better off without it.

2017 Pre-Season Profile: New York Mets

#7

The New York Mets have carried their powerful young starting rotation to the playoffs the last two seasons, almost winning it all in 2015.  Will 2017 bring enough offense to balance their pitching to make another deep run?

My 2016 Predictions

1st in NL East, lose in NLCS

One of the Mets' five aces will go down with Tommy John surgery in 2016.

2016 Results

87-75, 2nd in NL East, WILD CARD, lost in Wild Card Game

My predictions are a lot more accurate than they appear at first glance.  I had their 2016 playoff run coming to an end at the hands of the Giants.  The only difference is they lost to the Giants in the Wild Card Game instead of the NLCS.  Regardless, it was still a very successful follow-up season for a young team after a World Series run the year before.  As for my Fearless Prediction, fortunately none of their great young starting pitchers went down with Tommy John.  With that said, Noah Syndergaard was the only one that pitched a full season.  Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey, and Steven Matz dealt with different injuries throughout the season, and Zack Wheeler waited till 2017 to make his comeback from Tommy John.

Additions / Subtractions

The Mets are entering 2017 with almost the exact same roster they ended 2016 with.  In fact, the only real change from the start of 2016 is the mid-season deal they made for Jay Bruce.  The other difference is letting veteran Bartolo Colon leave so the youngsters can have the rotation to themselves.

Most Important Hitter

Jay Bruce

The Mets brought Jay Bruce over last season to help provide some pop with Yoenis Cespedes in the middle of the order.  Instead, Bruce had a terrible run over the last few months, hitting just .219 with 8 home runs and 19 RBI's in 50 games.  The Mets considered trading Bruce again in the offseason, but they instead are banking on Bruce to return to his All Star level he showed with the Reds.  He could be the key to waking up a mediocre offense.

Most Important Pitcher

Noah Syndergaard

Every year, the Mets seem to have a different pitcher emerge as the best pitcher of the staff.  In 2013, it was Matt Harvey.  In 2015, it was Jacob deGrom.  In 2016, it was Noah Syndergaard.  Like I said before, Syndergaard was the only one of the Mets' youngsters to pitch a full season.  He is also the only one that hasn't had any injury issues so far in his career.  Before this season starts, one of their aces (Matz) is already on the DL.  They need someone to bring some stability to the staff and string together consecutive strong seasons.  Syndergaard looks to be the one that has the best opportunity to do just that.

Player to Watch

Amed Rosario

The Mets' infield is getting old.  Neil Walker is 31, Asdrubal Cabrera is 31, David Wright is 34 (when he can play), and Jose Reyes is 34 (when Wright doesn't play).  One of these guys is going to lose their job at some point this season to 21 year old prospect Amed Rosario.  Ranked the 5th best prospect in baseball, Rosario is a shortstop by trade, however he could give a spark at any infield position needed this season.  He might be the catalyst for a late season run towards the playoffs.

2017 Prediction

2nd in NL East, WILD CARD, lose in NLDS

The Mets have so much elite pitching, they are near guaranteed to have a spot in the playoffs.  Even if guys get hurt, they have starters waiting for a shot to show that they belong as well.  I see them getting into that Wild Card Game again this season.  This time, they won't get MadBum'ed and make it to the NLDS where their run will come to an end.  They won't get over the hump until the offense get and upgrade.

Fearless Prediction

Noah Syndergaard will win the NL Cy Young.

It is hard to go against Clayton Kershaw for this award, who is one of the greatest pitchers this game has ever seen.  However, Thor has the potential to join him in that category.  This is the year where the Mets' rotation gets that stability it needs as Syndergaard takes his place among the game's elite.

2016 Pre-Season Profile: New York Mets

The New York Mets surprised a lot of people in 2015 by not only winning the NL East, but making all the way to the World Series.  Will they be able to repeat that level of success in 2016?

Last Season

My 2015 Prediction: 4th in NL East

2015 Result: 90-72, 1st in NL East, lost in World Series

I was way off about the Mets last season.  Everyone knew about their pitching, but the question was if they would be able to produce enough offense to win games.  They hung around long enough to make a couple trades at the Trade Deadline that put them over the top down the stretch.  Their 2015 run to the World Series felt very similar to the Royals' 2014 run to the World Series.  The Royals ended up winning it all the next season.  The Mets are hoping the pattern continues with them.

2016 Additions / Subtractions

The primary subtractions for the Mets end up not affecting them that much.  The biggest name to leave was Daniel Murphy, however the trade for Neil Walker brings in a comparable replacement.  They had to give up Jon Niese to get Walker, but their rotation hardly needed him anymore.  Michael Cuddyer retired, however this simply cleared a space for phenom Michael Conforto to start every day.  The biggest move made this offseason was re-signing Yoenis Cespedes, who gave them the boost they needed to get as far as they did last season.  They also brought in veteran Asdrubal Cabrera to give boost at shortstop offensively.

Most Important Hitter

Yoenis Cespedes

The Mets are built around pitching, but their lineup this season will be built around Cespedes.  He is about as streaky of a hitter as there is in baseball right now.  He can look like an MVP candidate for a week, then look like he needs to be benched.  He is like Yasiel Puig minus all the flash.  The biggest question going into this season is can he play centerfield on a consistent basis?  He is an elite corner outfielder, but he showed in the playoffs last year that he can be an average at best centerfielder.  With defensive stud Juan Lagares now relegated to the bench, how much do they let Cespedes bumble and stumble in center before they try and figure out an alternative?  Or does he show that his defensive play in the playoffs was an anomaly, and he can actually play the position well?  Only time will tell...

Most Important Pitcher

Matt Harvey

In his first first full season back from Tommy John surgery, Matt Harvey for the most part returned to his elite form from a few years prior.  The dreaded "innings limit" came up and reared its ugly head at the end of the season, but it turned out to not distract from the playoff push.  Now all the limits should be lifted.  The Mets have the potential, by the end of the season, to have five aces in their rotation.  The difference between this and the Nationals of 2015 is all of the Met's starters are 28 or younger.  They are all in their prime and still getting better.  Matt Harvey, although he wasn't the best of them last year, is the leader.  He needs to keep up with deGrom and Syndergaard to keep that title and make this rotation as historic as it could be.

Player to Watch

Steven Matz

This isn't really a huge revelation considering how well he played in the postseason last year.  The bigger surprise might be the fact that through all he did last season, Steven Matz maintained his rookie status for 2016.  He is expected to be the sole lefty in the Mets' rotation and contribute right away on day one.  Once Zack Wheeler returns from Tommy John, this will be a rotation unmatched in the league.

2016 Prediction

1st in NL East, lose in NLCS

This pitching staff is for real.  This is not just silly over-hype because they are a New York team.  Harvey, deGrom, Matz, Syndergaard, and Wheeler would all be aces for any other team.  The Mets have them all.  It will be really hard for them lose behind this group.  Also, the NL East is pretty terrible this season, featuring possibly the two worst teams in all of baseball.  This will be a two team race for the division, and I see the Mets pulling it out.  They won't get all the way back to where they did in 2015 (they still need to improve that offense a little more), but it will be a respectable follow-up to the surprise World Series appearance last season.

Fearless Prediction

One of the Mets' five aces will go down with Tommy John surgery in 2016.

The arm of a pitcher, especially a young pitcher, is a fragile thing these days.  It seems to be a requirement to miss a season with the dreaded Tommy John at some point.  The Mets have already had two of their Big Five go through it in Harvey and Wheeler.  It seems inevitable that it happens again.  If I had to pick one, I would say it's Syndergaard's turn.  However, this pitching staff is deep enough, they can withstand one of the group going down for awhile.  They already have the ageless Bartolo Colon in the fold to fill in for Wheeler until he is ready to come back mid-season.  He would just continue to pitch as he always has.  It just doesn't seem logical to have five young arms like that all finish the season perfectly healthy though.