2024 Pre-Season Profile: New York Mets

 #18

The New York Mets went from being the best team money could buy and a legit World Series contender to selling at the Trade Deadline.  Are they ready to climb the mountaintop in 2024?

2023 Predictions

#3 - 1st in NL East, lose in NLCS

MIH - Brandon Nimmo

MIP - Kodai Senga

PTW - Francisco Alvarez

FP - A closer named Diaz will lead the Mets in saves in 2023.

2023 Results

#23 - 75-87, 4th in NL East

Highest WAR (Position) - Francisco Lindor

Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Kodai Senga

The Mets won the award as the most disappointing season in the league.  They had thrown so much money at so many top players trying to put together and All Star roster, and it just didn't work.  The Edwin Diaz injury during the World Baseball Classic didn't help either.  There were some bright spots, as Japanese import Kodai Senga showed he's the real deal.  Phenom catcher Francisco Alvarez showed signs that he could be the star they were hoping he would be in the next couple years.  However, when you have to give up and trade both Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer mid-season to help reset your roster, it's not a good year.

Additions / Subtractions

The most notable change was the replacement of manager Buck Showalter with Yankees bench coach Carlos Mendoza.  In terms of the roster, no more huge splashes for the Mets, at least not this year.  They signed starters Luis Severino and Sean Manaea to stabilize the rotation.  Center fielder Harrison Bader is another smaller signing to fill a hole.  Then there was last minute addition J.D. Martinez as the team's full time DH.  All of these are solid moves, but when the Mets were printing money the last couple off-seasons, it's a little underwhelming.

Most Important Hitter

Pete Alonso

One of the more interesting storylines of the off-season was the move that wasn't made.  Pete Alonso is entering the final year of club control with the Mets, and he is set to be a free agent at the end of the season.  There was plenty of talk about the Mets either signing Alonso long term or trading him to continue their step back and reset.  Instead, Alonso is playing in a contract year.  Will he sign long term?  Will he be traded mid-season if the Mets are irrelevant?  Anything is possible.

Most Important Pitcher

Edwin Diaz

Losing Edwin Diaz in that freak celebration injury pre-season last year dealt a bigger blow than anyone anticipated.  Not only is he the Mets closer, but he is also a spark plug and source of so much energy.  The Mets also chose to replace him internally instead of trading for another closer.  Now he's back, but is he truly back to being the most dominant closer in baseball?  If he is, the whole bullpen works.  If not, this Mets bullpen gets really thin really fast.

Prospect to Watch

Luisangel Acuna

The Mets sport the 13th best farm system in baseball, thanks almost entirely to their Trade Deadline moves last season.  Three of their four Top 100 Prospects were acquired mid-season last year.  Two of these prospects have a chance to make an impact in 2024, and the most intriguing of those is Luisangel Acuna.  This 22 year old middle infielder is the younger brother of reigning NL MVP Ronald Acuna and was acquired last season in the Max Scherzer trade to the Rangers.  In many ways, he looks like a mini version of his brother.  He doesn't have the same power at just 5'8", but he can definitely still hit.  He is also a strong defender up the middle.  The Mets seem pretty set at second and shortstop with Francisco Lindor and Jeff McNeil, but it will be a big storyline when this phenom makes his debut for more reasons than one.

2024 Prediction

3rd in NL East

When the 2023 roster wasn't working, the Mets knew they needed to take a step back and build a more sustainable winner.  They have done that, but they also knew it meant they were probably sacrificing the 2024 season in the process.  With that said, there is still way too much talent on this roster for them to be bad.  The Mets should be much better this year than last year.  They are also in a very top heavy division with two juggernauts that they hope to join very soon.

Fearless Prediction

Pete Alonso will be traded mid-season, and then sign a free agent deal with the Mets in the off-season.

This may be a wild prediction, but it feels like a very Mets thing to do.  By the Trade Deadline, the Mets may be ready to give up enough on the season to trade their first baseman, especially if he is having a good season and could bring back a good haul of prospects.  So then Pete Alonso becomes a free agent and signs with the highest bidder.  Well, that sounds like it would be the Mets.  So they get the prospect package and the star signed long term.  It doesn't happen often (Yankees pulled it off with Aroldis Chapman a few years back), but it feels like a situation that could play out here.

2023 Pre-Season Profile: San Francisco Giants

 #19

The San Francisco Giants took a big step back in 2022 after being the surprise winner of the NL West in 2021.  Will 2023 see a return to the postseason in San Francisco?

2022 Predictions

#14 - 3rd in NL West

MIH - Brandon Belt

MIP - Logan Webb

PTW - Heliot Ramos

2022 Results

#15 - 81-81, 3rd in NL West

Highest WAR (Position) - Mike Yastrzemski

Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Carlos Rodon

I don't know if anyone expected the Giants win 107 games again in 2022, especially in this elite division with juggernauts in the Dodgers and Padres.  Finishing the season at .500 and outside the playoff picture may have been a lower fall than anyone was hoping for.  Their pitching was pretty elite, with Carlos Rodon anchoring the staff.  The lineup struggled to hit, with little Yaz finishing 5th on the team in WAR as their best hitter.  As has been the norm for the last decade or so, the Giants remained one of the older teams in the league, with only 3 of their starting 9 playing 2022 under the age of 30.

Additions / Subtractions

This offseason served as a little bit of a reset for the Giants.  Carlos Rodon signed a megadeal with the Yankees.  Veterans Evan Longoria, Tommy La Stella, and Brandon Belt moved on.  The Giants did bring some players in, like starters Sean Manaea and Ross Stripling, reliever Taylor Rogers, and outfielders Michael Conforto and Mitch Haniger.  The biggest story of the Giants offseason who they didn't sign.  The Giants have been trying for the last few years to find a superstar to be their new face of the franchise.  They pushed hard a few years ago for Bryce Harper and lost.  This offseason, for a few hours, they thought they had signed Aaron Judge, then they didn't.  For a few days, they thought they signed Carlos Correa, then they didn't.  Both for different reasons.  Judge wanted to be a Yankee, and Correa's ankle couldn't be cleared by the medical staff.  What's left is a roster with a gaping hole in the star category.  They have a lot of good players, but really no elite players.

Most Important Hitter

Michael Conforto

This spot could just as easily go to Mitch Haniger as they are both in similar situations, but Michael Conforto comes in with a bigger question mark next to his name.  With the lack of the big name signing, the Giants will be leaning on both of these new signings.  What makes them question marks?  Both have struggled to stay healthy.  Haniger has been injured more than healthy in his career, and Conforto didn't play at all in 2022 with an injury.  Both are All Star caliber players at their best.  The question is if they can stay on the field.  If the Giants get 140+ games from both Conforto and Haniger, this lineup is going to be a lot more productive than anyone thinks.

Most Important Pitcher

Sean Manaea

Carlos Rodon left a huge hole in the starting rotation, and one of the pitchers asked to try and help fill that hole is new acquisition Sean Manaea.  He has shown signs of being a very good player when he was in Oakland.  Last year in San Diego, he was not very good at all.  He posted only a 75 ERA+ and a standard ERA just under 5.00.  They are hoping for a bounce back, and San Francisco seems to be a good spot for pitchers to have that bounce back season.

Prospect to Watch

Casey Schmitt

For some reason, the Giants tend to struggle building up a strong farm system.  They are currently league average, which is better than they have been in awhile.  They have two prospects in the Top 100, but the prospect most likely to have an impact in 2023 is their 4th best prospect, Casey Schmitt.  Able to play both shortstop and third base, Schmitt has opened eyes with his bat.  Working his way through 3 levels in 2022, Schmitt hit .293 with 21 homers and 78 RBI's.  With an uneasy situation entering the season at third base, Schmitt could snag that job sooner rather than later.

2023 Prediction

4th in NL West

There are just too many question marks for the Giants this season.  Can Conforto and Haniger stay healthy?  Can Manaea bounce back?  Can Joey Bart start to hit?  How much longer can Brandon Crawford be a productive player?  Even at their best in 2023, they have a ceiling of 3rd in their division.  This is probably their floor (they won't be worse than the Rockies).  Could they compete for a Wild Card spot?  Sure, but everything has to go right.  I don't see it happening.

Fearless Prediction

Gabe Kapler is fired after the 2023 season.

Outside of 2021, Gabe Kapler has been a manager of mediocre team.  Is this all his fault?  Not at all.  Could he be the scapegoat?  Easily.  I've never fully understood Kapler as a manager.  He just rubs me the wrong way.  The Giants are usually very patient with their managers, but if they continue to try and recruit star players, look for Kapler to be fired to show they are ready for a new era.

2021 Pre-Season Profile: Oakland Athletics

 #8

Every year, the Oakland Athletics seem to outperform other teams loaded with more star power and big contracts.  Will 2021 continue their run of seemingly anonymous success?

2020 Predictions

#9 - 2nd in AL West, WILD CARD, lose in Wild Card Game

MIH - Marcus Semien

MIP - Liam Hendriks

PTW - Jesus Luzardo

2020 Results

#5 - 36-24, 1st in AL West, lost in ALDS

The A's once again put together a stellar regular season even though it was short.  Taking the crown in the AL West with a bad year from their 2019 MVP candidate in Marcus Semien and without a full season from their best player in Matt Chapman, the A's showed just how much of a collective team they are.  With that said, when everything was on the line in the playoffs, they couldn't beat the Astros even though they were by far the superior team in the regular season.  This seems to be the next step for the A's; turn regular season success into postseason success.

Additions / Subtractions

It may be a challenge for the A's to improve much this season considering what they lost this offseason.  Marcus Semien and Liam Hendriks, two of their most productive players over the last few seasons, signed free agent deals elsewhere.  Outfielder Robbie Grossman also moved on.  To replace Semien at shortstop, they traded away DH Khris Davis for veteran shortstop Elvis Andrus in one of the more fascinating trades of the offseason.  They also signed Trevor Rosenthal and Sergio Romo to help fill the void in the bullpen left by Hendriks.  The only other significant move made was signing Mitch Moreland as a possible DH and depth option.

Most Important Hitter

Matt Olson

Matt Olson is another player that wasn't stellar for the A's in 2020, but he is a cornerstone of their lineup.  A Gold Glove caliber first baseman, Olson has also shown some great pop in the heart of the order.  He has the potential to continue to grow into a superstar, but he has to bounce back from the lackluster 2020.  The Two Matt's (Olson and Chapman) are the keys to so much of what the A's do in 2021.  Since they proved last season they could survive extended stretches without Chapman, that makes Olson the pick here.

Most Important Pitcher

Jesus Luzardo

The A's have a lot of unassuming but productive talent in the lineup that can match up with anyone.  If they lack one thing, it is an ace that can go toe-to-toe with any team out there.  Chris Bassitt had an outstanding year in 2020, but he is reaching the back half of his career so who knows how long that will keep up.  The future ace of this staff needs to be Jesus Luzardo.  It may be a little too early to place huge expectations on a guy like this as he is only entering his age 23 season, but he has the dynamic stuff to be a star in the league.  He was just about average in 2020, finishing with a 98 ERA+.  He needs to take a huge leap forward and be the stopper that rotation desperately needs. if they plan on having the postseason success they have been missing.

Prospect to Watch

A.J. Puk

It's about time for the A's to start retooling their farm system.  They currently boast no prospects in the Top 100 and sit in the lower third of the league in terms of overall farm system.  With all that said, I think it is finally time for A.J. Puk to break out.  This 6'7" lefty has been on the verge of stardom for several years now, but some injuries have delayed his arrival.  Now he is about to turn 26 years old and has fallen out of the Top 100 simply because who knows if he can stay healthy.  His stuff is electric though, and if he can finally put it all together, watch out!

2021 Prediction

1st in AL West, lose in ALDS

This season has the potential to look very similar to Oakland fans.  They are going to have an excellent regular season, aided by a potentially softening division.  Then they will get to the playoffs and run into some juggernaut superteams and not stand a chance.  I think playoff appearances might be the peak for this team as it is currently constructed.  Going beyond that would be an over-achievement they have not been able to reach quite yet.

Fearless Predictions

Before Opening Day 2022, Matt Chapman and Matt Olson will be traded, a new ballpark deal is done, or the A's will announce a relocation.

Both Matts are under club control with the A's through the 2023 season.  With the trajectory their careers are headed, it is only a matter of time before the A's look to unload them at their peak value before they have to pay them too much, especially considering their lackluster farm system.  Either that, or something in their situation in Oakland changes that helps them bring in more revenue and allows them to sign someone to a long term deal.  Or they get ready to leave town.  In the next 12 months, it is very likely that one of those three things happens.

2019 Pre-Season Profile: Oakland Athletics

#10

The Oakland A's were the biggest surprise of the 2018 season, working their way all the way up to a Wild Card spot.  Can the A's repeat the success of last year?

2018 Predictions

5th in AL West

Khris Davis will be the starting DH for the AL in the All Star Game.

2018 Results

97-65, 2nd in AL West, WILD CARD, lost in Wild Card Game

I was way off on the A's, but I can't quite say it is surprising.  Every time I count the A's out, they end up making the playoffs.  If I predict they do well, they end up in the cellar.  The A's are just out to mess up me and my Mariners.  Oakland once again put everything together in a way no other organization can and took a roster of no namers and resurrection projects and turned it into a 97 win team.  That's a ton of wins!  I correctly predicted the breakout year for Khris Davis, however I didn't count on J.D. Martinez almost winning an MVP as a DH.

Additions / Subtractions

The Athletics stayed consistent with who they are and made some minor moves that have the potential of having a major impact.  The biggest move the A's made was trade for Jurickson Profar to replace Jed Lowrie at second base.  Then they brought in Robbie Grossman, a very underrated hitter, to add some outfield depth.  Marco Estrada becomes the latest starter they bring in to try and resurrect some past glory.  No move wows you, but all the moves both make sense and will work out.

Most Important Hitter

Matt Chapman

This might be possibly the biggest star in baseball that no one has still heard of.  Matt Chapman took his first full season in the big leagues in 2018 and tallied a 6 win season in terms of WAR.  He had a 136 OPS+, won a Gold Glove at the very competitive third base, and finished 7th in AL MVP voting.  He showed he can be a big time star, and the A's are going to need him to repeat last year's great performance if they want to maintain the success of last season.  It feels like the team's success is pretty closely tied to Chapman's success.

Most Important Pitcher

Frankie Montas

The A's always seem to cobble together a rotation of veterans looking for a rebirth on their careers.  This year is no different with their rotation starting with Mike Fiers (better than advertised, but a journeyman), Marco Estrada, and Brett Anderson at the top.  There aren't many young guns facotring into their rotation right now, especially with Jharel Cotton and no-hit boy Sean Manaea starting the season on the injured list as they continue to recover from injuries they sustained last season.  The best pitcher in their Opening Day rotation under the age of 30 is Frankie Montas.  Montas came to the A's in the Rich Hill deal with the Dodgers a few seasons ago, and they are still waiting for him to break out.  He had decent success last year in 65 innings with the A's.  Now he needs to establish himself as a real starting pitcher in this league to help provide some promise for the future in the rotation.  If he does, their rotation will be scary once Manaea and Cotton are healthy and top prospects Jesus Luzardo and A.J. Puk join the team at some point in the next season or two.

Prospect to Watch

Sean Murphy

One underrated subtraction from the A's that might have quite an impact in 2019 is Jonathan Lucroy leaving to sign with the Angels.  He was an important part of handling the pitching staff last season.  However, one of the reasons they let him go was the anticipation of Sean Murphy making his debut at some point in 2019.  He is a solid hitter but will make the most impact as a defender behind the plate.  The A's have a couple veterans filling in at catcher this season waiting for Murphy to be ready.

2019 Prediction

2nd in AL West, WILD CARD, lose in Wild Card Game

I think the A's have everything in place to make another big run and make the postseason.  Seeing how good the top of the American League is, they don't have much of a chance getting further.  It will still be quite the feat if they are able to make back-to-back runs to the postseason.

Fearless Prediction

Blake Treinen will lead the American League in saves in 2019.

Blake Treinen was another huge surprise for the A's last season.  Ending the season with 38 saves, Treinen ended the year with a 0.78 ERA.  He only gave up 7 earned runs all year!  The guy was a stud, and he will repeat that production on another postseason run for the A's.  A team built on pitching, especially their elite bullpen, will be in a lot of close games giving Treinen a lot of opportunities to tally a league-leading amount of saves.

2018 Pre-Season Profile: Oakland Athletics

#25

The Oakland A's always ride a fine line between tanking and competing.  Will they be relevant in 2018?

2017 Predictions

4th in AL West

Half of the A's Opening Day roster will be traded by the end of the season.

2017 Results

75-87, 5th in AL West

2017 was another below average season for the A's.  It was not that long ago that they were trading for guys like Jon Lester and Jeff Samardzija mid-season to make a deep run in the playoffs.  Now they are hardly recognizable from that playoff team.  They have spent the last few seasons building up a new young core to lead them moving forward.  As for the prediction of roster turnover, about half of the players that played Opening Day last season are no longer in the Oakland organization.

Additions / Subtractions

There was once again a decent amount of roster turnover for Oakland this offseason.  They spent some resources building up their bullpen, bringing in a young arm in Emilio Pagan (trading slugger Ryon Healy) and a veteran in Yusmeiro Petit (free agency).  The biggest moves they made that can have lasting impacts are the signing of All Star catcher Jonathan Lucroy and the trade for outfielder Stephen Piscotty.  These are moves that have the potential to help Oakland right now, showing they feel they are getting close to competing again.

Most Important Hitter

Stephen Piscotty

The trade for Piscotty was, reportedly, to get him closer to home for family reasons.  However, it was a great move for Oakland that may pay off well.  Piscotty was touted as the next great All Star outfielder for the St. Louis Cardinals several years ago when he made his debut.  However, he rarely showed signs of eclipsing the lofty expectations put upon him.  If he can find some more production in a place that may be more comfortable for him, this could turn out to be a steal for the A's and a potential centerpiece of their new wave of young talent.

Most Important Pitcher

Sean Manaea

Only a couple years ago, Sean Manaea was the A's top prospect looking to break onto the scene.  Now, Manaea is actually one of their more experienced starters.  He is also on the verge of breaking out and showing what he can really do.  He showed flashes of brilliance last season, but it was inconsistent.  It is time for Manaea to show if he will be a star for the A's moving forward.

Prospect to Watch

A.J. Puk

The first round pick of the A's in the 2016 draft, A.J. Puk is a big left-handed pitcher that seems to be on the fast track to the big leagues.  In his first full season of professional baseball, he led all of the minor leagues with 13.2 strikeouts per 9 innings.  The A's will probably be looking to give some youngsters a chance to show what they can do at some point this season, and the debut of Puk will not only be one of them but will probably be one that make some noise around baseball.

2018 Prediction

5th in AL West

Let's start with the good news.  The A's are looking to finally have this new young core starting to emerge.  Players like Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, Stephen Piscotty, and Dustin Fowler are going to be mainstays in their lineup for the foreseeable future.  As they grow together, they will start to compete and be relevant again.  The A's will probably be better this year than they were last year.  Now the bad news.  The A's are stuck in one of the most competitive divisions in baseball right now.  The Angels and Mariners are both expected to make strides towards a postseason berth, the Rangers can never be counted out of being relevant every year, and the Astros are the reigning World Champions.  The A's are heading in the right direction, but their record might now show it in 2018.

Fearless Prediction

Khris Davis will be the starting DH for the AL in the All Star Game.

Kris Davis has quietly become one of the more prolific power hitters over the past few seasons.  In 2017, he had 43 home runs and 110 RBI's.  This followed up a 2016 season of almost identical numbers.  His biggest knock has been poor defense, but if he stays the designated hitter for the A's this season, he has a chance to finally be recognized.  There is some great competition in this spot, but Davis has a chance to really shine in 2018.

2016 Pre-Season Profile: Oakland Athletics

We may now be two weeks into the season, but it isn't too late to look at a preview for a few last teams.  How will the Oakland A's fare in 2016?

Last Season

My 2015 Prediction: 5th in AL West

2015 Result: 68-94, 5th in AL West

I was finally right!  Every year, it seemed that the Oakland A's would put a sub-par team on the field, and yet they would still compete and sometimes even make the playoffs.  After going all in for the 2014 season, the 2015 season saw them finally come crashing back down to earth.  The A's hit the cellar in 2015 for the first time since 2009 as it seemed they were trying to hit the reset button after the disappointing finish in 2014.

2016 Additions / Subtractions

This offseason saw the A's continue to unload some of their major league talent as Brett Lawrie, Scott Kazmir, and Jesse Chavez left either by trade or free agency.  They did bring in a few guys too, like Khris Davis, Chris Coghlan, and Ryan Madson.  However, the roster still looks very much like a work in progress.

Most Important Hitter

Billy Burns

Has there ever been a more "moneyball" player than Billy Burns?  He is a 5'9", 170 pound, switch-hitting, slap hitter that plays centerfield.  Nothing about him looks like a big leaguer except his stat line.  In one of the deepest rookie classes in recent memory, Billy Burns took 5th in the Rookie of the Year voting in 2015.  For the future incarnation of the A's to be a success, Billy Burns needs to make sure last season was a sign of things to come and not a one hit wonder.

Most Important Pitcher

Sonny Gray

Over the last couple years, Sonny Gray has quietly become one of the best pitchers in baseball.  Now he is in his contract year on a team not expected to contend.  This makes Gray incredibly important for the A's as he will most likely be traded around the Trade Deadline.  The haul they are able to get for their ace will help set them up for some future success in the years to come.

Player to Watch

Sean Manaea

After trading away the farm in 2014 (Cubs phenom Addison Russell being one of them) they needed to rebuild their system.  Sean Manaea came over to Oakland from Kansas City in the Ben Zobrist deal last season.  Now he is one of their top prospects and set to make his big league debut this summer, especially if the A's have the type of season they are expected to have.

2016 Prediction

5th in AL West

I heard one prognosticator say that the A's are the only American League team without a realistic shot at the postseason entering the season.  I would agree with that, which probably means they will win the division.  However, they seem to be the only AL team in the middle of a rebuild.  Everyone else is prepping for a pennant run this season.  This season has the potential to once again be rough on the east side of the Bay, however Billy Beane never lets A's be down for too long.

Fearless Prediction

Half of the A's Opening Day lineup will be traded before the end of the season.

For a rebuilding team, they sure have a lot of veterans on their roster.  Look for guys like Sonny Gray, Chris Coghlan, Billy Butler, Jed Lowrie, Danny Valencia, Coco Crisp, and maybe even Josh Reddick traded before the end of the season to build up their farm system.  By season's end, all of these players will be most valuable to the A's as ways to improve their future.