2024 Pre-Season Profile: New York Mets

 #18

The New York Mets went from being the best team money could buy and a legit World Series contender to selling at the Trade Deadline.  Are they ready to climb the mountaintop in 2024?

2023 Predictions

#3 - 1st in NL East, lose in NLCS

MIH - Brandon Nimmo

MIP - Kodai Senga

PTW - Francisco Alvarez

FP - A closer named Diaz will lead the Mets in saves in 2023.

2023 Results

#23 - 75-87, 4th in NL East

Highest WAR (Position) - Francisco Lindor

Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Kodai Senga

The Mets won the award as the most disappointing season in the league.  They had thrown so much money at so many top players trying to put together and All Star roster, and it just didn't work.  The Edwin Diaz injury during the World Baseball Classic didn't help either.  There were some bright spots, as Japanese import Kodai Senga showed he's the real deal.  Phenom catcher Francisco Alvarez showed signs that he could be the star they were hoping he would be in the next couple years.  However, when you have to give up and trade both Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer mid-season to help reset your roster, it's not a good year.

Additions / Subtractions

The most notable change was the replacement of manager Buck Showalter with Yankees bench coach Carlos Mendoza.  In terms of the roster, no more huge splashes for the Mets, at least not this year.  They signed starters Luis Severino and Sean Manaea to stabilize the rotation.  Center fielder Harrison Bader is another smaller signing to fill a hole.  Then there was last minute addition J.D. Martinez as the team's full time DH.  All of these are solid moves, but when the Mets were printing money the last couple off-seasons, it's a little underwhelming.

Most Important Hitter

Pete Alonso

One of the more interesting storylines of the off-season was the move that wasn't made.  Pete Alonso is entering the final year of club control with the Mets, and he is set to be a free agent at the end of the season.  There was plenty of talk about the Mets either signing Alonso long term or trading him to continue their step back and reset.  Instead, Alonso is playing in a contract year.  Will he sign long term?  Will he be traded mid-season if the Mets are irrelevant?  Anything is possible.

Most Important Pitcher

Edwin Diaz

Losing Edwin Diaz in that freak celebration injury pre-season last year dealt a bigger blow than anyone anticipated.  Not only is he the Mets closer, but he is also a spark plug and source of so much energy.  The Mets also chose to replace him internally instead of trading for another closer.  Now he's back, but is he truly back to being the most dominant closer in baseball?  If he is, the whole bullpen works.  If not, this Mets bullpen gets really thin really fast.

Prospect to Watch

Luisangel Acuna

The Mets sport the 13th best farm system in baseball, thanks almost entirely to their Trade Deadline moves last season.  Three of their four Top 100 Prospects were acquired mid-season last year.  Two of these prospects have a chance to make an impact in 2024, and the most intriguing of those is Luisangel Acuna.  This 22 year old middle infielder is the younger brother of reigning NL MVP Ronald Acuna and was acquired last season in the Max Scherzer trade to the Rangers.  In many ways, he looks like a mini version of his brother.  He doesn't have the same power at just 5'8", but he can definitely still hit.  He is also a strong defender up the middle.  The Mets seem pretty set at second and shortstop with Francisco Lindor and Jeff McNeil, but it will be a big storyline when this phenom makes his debut for more reasons than one.

2024 Prediction

3rd in NL East

When the 2023 roster wasn't working, the Mets knew they needed to take a step back and build a more sustainable winner.  They have done that, but they also knew it meant they were probably sacrificing the 2024 season in the process.  With that said, there is still way too much talent on this roster for them to be bad.  The Mets should be much better this year than last year.  They are also in a very top heavy division with two juggernauts that they hope to join very soon.

Fearless Prediction

Pete Alonso will be traded mid-season, and then sign a free agent deal with the Mets in the off-season.

This may be a wild prediction, but it feels like a very Mets thing to do.  By the Trade Deadline, the Mets may be ready to give up enough on the season to trade their first baseman, especially if he is having a good season and could bring back a good haul of prospects.  So then Pete Alonso becomes a free agent and signs with the highest bidder.  Well, that sounds like it would be the Mets.  So they get the prospect package and the star signed long term.  It doesn't happen often (Yankees pulled it off with Aroldis Chapman a few years back), but it feels like a situation that could play out here.

2023 Pre-Season Profile: New York Mets

 #3

The New York Mets continue to try and buy their way to championship.  Will winning the offseason result in winning in the postseason in 2023?

2022 Predictions

#4 - 1st in NL East, lose in NLCS

MIH - Francisco Lindor

MIP - Max Scherzer

PTW - Brett Baty

2022 Results

#9 - 101-61, 2nd in NL East, WILD CARD, lost in Wild Card Series

Highest WAR (Position) - Jeff McNiel

Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Max Scherzer

This is how good the National League has been recently.  The New York Mets won 101 games in 2022.  Yeah, that was good for 2nd in the division.  They lost in the Wild Card Series to the Padres, who you can argue were the more talented (and maybe higher spending) team.  Then, the eventual NL champ was the 3rd place team from their own division.  With the type of overhaul the Mets had before the 2022 season, it sometimes takes a year or two for the team to come together and play well as a unit.  With that said, they still won 101 games.

Additions / Subtractions

Well, with new Mets owner Steve Cohen, since the Mets didn't win the World Series, it meant he didn't spend enough money.  So he opened up the pocket books again.  First, the Mets kept some of their own that were entering free agency by re-signing closer Edwin Diaz and outfielder Brandon Nimmo to huge deals.  Then, they signed a second 40 year old pitcher to a contract paying $40 million per year.  Last year it was Max Scherzer.  This year it was Justin Verlander.  They signed veteran Jose Quintana and Japanese import Kodai Senga to bolster the rotation even more.  Reliever and former closer David Robertson was signed to deepen the bullpen (and possibly close now that Diaz is out for the year).  Catcher Omar Narvaez was signed to be an offensive-minded catcher.  They also found themselves in the middle of the Carlos Correa saga as they jumped in and agreed to a deal with the superstar shortstop after the Giants questioned his medicals.  Then when the Mets questioned his medicals, both sides backed out of the deal, and he ended up back in Minnesota.  The only real significant subtractions were starters Jacob deGrom, Chris Bassitt and Taijuan Walker, but they were more than adequately replaced.

Most Important Hitter

Brandon Nimmo

Brandon Nimmo had a career year in 2022, which just happened to be his contract year.  He cashed in to stay with the Mets, signing an 8 year $162 million deal.  However, it was only the second time in Nimmo's seven year career he has played in more than 100 games.  The production has always been decent when he is on the field.  The problem is he has to be on the field.  Was 2022 starting a new trend of health, or an anomaly in a career riddled with injuries?  The Mets have a potent middle of the order with the likes of Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso, but they are counting on Nimmo to be on base for them to drive in.

Most Important Pitcher

Kodai Senga

The Mets have a lot of money invested in their starting rotation.  The amount of money they are paying the comination of Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander more than 9 teams' entire rosters.  However, most of the money invested in the rotation was spent on established older pitchers.  The one step they took to solidify part of their rotation passed this year and next was signing Kodai Senga.  The 30 year old Japanese star signed a 5 year $75 million deal with the Mets.  These Japanese players are definitely hit or miss.  Senga has some serious talent.  The question is ... will he be the next Masahiro Tanaka or the next Yusei Kikuchi?  If he is closer to Tanaka, then the Mets have an ace that will be around long after Scherzer and Verlander retire.

Prospect to Watch

Francisco Alvarez

On top of spending all this money, the Mets also boast a top ten caliber farm system, highlighted by one of the best prospects in all of baseball, 21 year old catcher Francisco Alvarez.  The reason the Mets signed a short term stop gap at catcher this offseason was to leave room for Alvarez to break out.  This kid showed all through the minors some elite pure power, slugging 24 homers in 2021 and 27 homers in 2022.  He got a taste of the big leagues at the end of last season, and although he is starting 2023 back in the minors, he will be brought up soon to be another centerpiece of the heart of the Mets batting order.

2023 Prediction

1st in NL East, lose in NLCS

Somehow, a 101 win team looks on paper to have greatly improved this offseason.  They should win the division, but the Braves and Phillies will definitely make it difficult on them.  Can they go all the way?  Absolutely.  I struggle to see a team with this much turnover again coming together in a way to go all the way.  There's a reason whenever the moniker of "best team money can buy" rarely produces a championship.

Fearless Prediction

A closer named Diaz will lead the Mets in saves in 2023.

It was heartbreaking to see such a moment of joy turn so fast in one fatal misstep as Edwin Diaz tore up his knee in the middle of a joyous celebration with his WBC teammates.  It left the Puerto Rico team dejected and the Mets without a closer for the season.  The Mets have announced they will use a closer by committee to start the season, but you know Steve Cohen won't be content with that.  A trade will be made for a closer, and one of the most likely candidates is Edwin's brother Alexis Diaz.  Currently the closer for the Reds, the younger Diaz was shedding tears on the field watching Edwin be carried off the field.  Wouldn't it be poetic if the Mets used some of their farm system depth to bring him in to fill in for his brother?  The Reds are always willing right now to get rid of established stars for prospect potential.  This seems like too good of a story for the Mets to pass up.