2019 Pre-Season Profile: Detroit Tigers

#27

The Detroit Tigers are definitely in a rebuild mode in the weakest division in baseball.  Can they take advantage of the poor division and be a surprise this season?

My 2018 Predictions

5th in AL Central

2018 will be Victor Martinez's last season, and he will not finish it on the Tigers' roster.

2018 Results

64-98, 3rd in AL Central

Your division must be pretty bad if you almost get 100 losses and still finish third in your division.  Manager Ron Gardenhire's first season in Detroit wasn't spectacular, but it looks like he is steering it in the right direction.  As for my fearless prediction, it somehow came true.  After a season that truly showed that Victor Martinez had nothing left in the tank, he walked away from the game with a great farewell gesture about one week before the end of the season.  It was a fitting end for a great player that will have a fascinating argument for Cooperstown in five years.

Additions / Subtractions

Outside of the Victor Martinez retirement, there were only a few subtractions.  Catcher James McCann, pitcher Francisco Liriano, and shortstop Jose Iglesias hit free agency and went elsewhere.  They replaced them with some short term veteran players to fill in the gap while they wait for some of their prospects to develop.  So in comes shortstop Jordy Mercer, super utilityman Josh Harrison, and starters Tyson Ross and Matt Moore.  All of these players are just looking for an opportunity to show that they still have some value to teams who might be looking for help at the Trade Deadline.

Most Important Hitter

Nicholas Castellanos

There are only a few players left from the previous Tiger core that can still have some value on the trade market.  Possibly the most notable of these is Nicholas Castellanos.  Even through the lean years in Detroit, he has been a model of consistency, putting up solid season after solid season.  This will only be his age 27 season, and he will not be a free agent until after the 2020 season.  This Trade Deadline would be the ideal time to move him, but he has to prove he can continue his All Star caliber play to make the most impact on the market.

Most Important Pitcher

Michael Fulmer

A year younger than Castellanos, Michael Fulmer has been an anchor to the Tiger rotation since he broke into the league in 2016 as the Rookie of the Year.  He followed it up with an All Star appearance in 2017, but 2018 was disappointing as he fell below average (according to ERA+) for the first time in his career.  Fulmer, like Castellanos, has been rumored to be a trade chip for quite awhile.  He has to return to All Star form for Fulmer to be valuable to the Tigers on the trade market.

Prospect to Watch

Alex Faedo

The reason the Tigers might be eager to move on from Michael Fulmer is their farm system.  The Tigers have five right handed starters listed in the top 100 prospects in all of baseball that are set to break into the big leagues in the next couple seasons, including Casey Mize, last year's number one overall pick.  The pitcher out of this group most likely to make his debut and have an impact in 2019 is Alex Faedo, the Tigers' first round pick from 2017.  The 23 year old pitcher out of Florida made it to AA in his first full season of pro ball in 2018.  If he continues on this fast track to the big leagues, look or him to be in the Tigers' rotation by the end of the season.

2019 Prediction

4th in AL Central

The Tigers are still a couple years away from being relevant, but they are on the way back and will at least be interesting.  Their farm system will be slowly bringing their new core along over the next couple seasons.  Until then, Tiger fans will have to instead ask themselves questions like, "Will Miguel Cabrera stay healthy enough to play the whole season?"  And people wonder why teams are now hesitant to sign players to the mega deals...

Fearless Prediction

Both Nicholas Castellanos and Michael Fulmer will be traded mid-season.

The Tigers have an outstanding farm system when it comes to pitching, but they are lacking the studs offensively.  If you aren't planning on these two being a part of the plan in this next wave, the sooner you trade them the better.  There is no reason for either of these two to have bad years, which means their trade value should be as high as it will ever be come the Trade Deadline.  Move on and keep going on the rebuild.

2017 Pre-Season Profile: San Francisco Giants

#11

The streak was broken!  For the first time since 2008, the Giants did not emerge as champions on an even numbered year.  Another streak that has lasted just as long as missing the playoffs on odd numbered years.  Will that continue in 2017?

My 2016 Predictions

1st in NL West, win World Series

The San Francisco Giants come home with MVP, Cy Young, and World Series trophies.

2016 Results

87-75, 2nd in NL West, WILD CARD, lost in NLDS

Last year, I was sticking with the streak until it proved me wrong.  Well, it proved me wrong in 2016.  The Giants even made the playoffs!  They had shown over the last decade that they were unstoppable as long as they make the postseason.  Madison Bumgarner did prove he is more than just a postseason pitcher as he had a dominant season, finishing 4th in the Cy Young voting.  Buster Posey was solid but not quite dominant in his season.  They were really good, but they ran into history when they lost to the Cubs.

Additions / Subtractions

The Giants had a huge offseason in 2016, signing both Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija to bolster the rotation.  Picking up Matt Moore and Eduardo Nunez in mid-season trades are huge bonuses moving into 2017.  However, if there has been one weakness for the Giants during this amazing run they have had, it has been their bullpen.  In 2010, 2012, and 2014, three different pitchers closed out the final game, including MadBum in 2014 because Bruce Bochy didn't trust anyone in the bullpen.  They tried to address this this offseason by signing closer Mark Melancon.  For the first time in awhile, the ninth inning will be taken care of in 2017.

Most Important Hitter

Joe Panik

The core of the Giants have been together for awhile.  They are starting to age.  One of the younger kids in their lineup is second baseman Joe Panik.  Panik burst on the scene in 2014 as he became one of the stars of their postseason run.  He followed that up with a strong 2015, making his first All Star Team.  2016 was a massive disappointment as his bat fell asleep for the entire season.  With the age of the Giants' roster, guys like Panik need to step up and show they can become stars for this team.

Most Important Pitcher

Jeff Samardzija

The Giants were expecting great things from their two big signings last year.  Johnny Cueto didn't disappoint as he competed with Madisno Bumgarner for best pitcher on the team.  Although Jeff Samardzija wasn't bad, he also was much less than dominant.  Samardzija has had a few down seasons recently since he left the Cubs.  The Giants were hoping he would emerge as the third ace on the staff, making them near unbeatable.  Now, he is entering the 2017 season not even as their third starter as Matt Moore has passed him up.  Samardzija needs to start to pitch like he is being paid; as an elite superstar in the game.

Player to Watch

Tyler Beede

Outside of the bullpen, another weakness of the Giants' organization over this current run has been their farm system.  They have maintained their aging core, trading prospects to help win now.  This has led to a system that is in the bottom third of the league, sporting just two prospects in baseball's Top 100.  Their top prospect might be a difference maker down the stretch in 2017.  Tyler Beede is a 23 year old starting pitcher that has been working his way up through the Giants' system since he was drafted in 2014.  Look for him to either be a contributor near the end of the season or be a key piece in another trade to help the Giants win now.

2017 Prediction

3rd in NL West

Ten teams make the playoffs.  I have the Giants 11th.  They will be the best team to not make October this season.  They have a strong roster top to bottom as they do every year, however it is hard for a team like this to hold up throughout the full season.  Their age is going to catch up with them, leading to potential injuries.  Injuries will challenge depth, which the Giants lack.  Look for a bounceback in 2018, but the window for this current Giants group is closing quickly.

Fearless Prediction

Buster Posey and Hunter Pence will miss a combined total of 162+ games.

When the Giants struggle, it is because of injuries to key bats in their order.  The heart and soul of their lineup are Buster Posey and Hunter Pence.  When Posey stays healthy, the Giants succeed.  To help with this, Posey is playing more and more first base to avoid the grind of catching every day.  Hunter Pence has been marred by injuries the last two seasons.  Before that, he played every day.  His body appears to be breaking down though.  Injuries to these two will slow this team down enough to keep them away from where they want to be.

2016 Pre-Season Profile: Tampa Bay Rays

Somehow, the Tampa Bay Rays defy the odds every year and have a solid season with whatever roster is put on the field.  Last season was no exception.  Will 2016 bring more of the same?

Last Season

My 2015 Prediction: 5th in AL East

2015 Result: 80-82, 4th in AL East

Every season, the Rays look like the last talented team in their division.  Every season, they over-achieve and play better than anyone expects with their talent level and payroll.  This is partially because of a strong pitching staff that seems to replenish itself every year with new young talent.  Although they finished fourth, this was only because of the immense competition in the AL East.  They easily could have ended up a slot or two higher.

2016 Additions / Subtractions

As with every Tampa Bay offseason, it was highlighted by low-level moves that could make a huge impact.  They picked up Logan Morrison, Brad Miller, and Danny Farquhar is a trade with Seattle, and then added Corey Dickerson in a trade with Colorado for Jake McGee.  The subtraction list is very short, mainly losing low-level players that the acquisitions replaced.

Most Important Hitter

Evan Longoria

It feels like Evan Longoria has been around forever, however he is only entering his age 30 season.  He has gone from being one of the best third basemen in the league to fairly mediocre in the last few years (6 WAR in 2013, 3 WAR in 2014 and 2015).  For the Rays to be back in playoff consideration, the one player they were willing to commit to long term has to start playing again like the MVP-caliber player he once was.

Most Important Pitcher

Matt Moore

Matt Moore was one of the next generation of Tampa Bay pitchers to dominate the league.  After an All-Star appearance in 2013, his progress was put on hold by Tommy John surgery in 2014.  He came back to only make 12 starts in 2015.  He needs to be back to full strength in 2016 for the Rays to have any success.

Player to Watch

Blake Snell

Like I said, Tampa Bay is known for the constant carousel of young pitchers.  The next in that line to arrive this season will be Blake Snell.  This lefty is the 14th best prospect in all of baseball and should be ready to make an impact at some point in 2016.

2016 Prediction

3rd in AL East

The Rays always seem to over-achieve and compete in the very competitive AL East.  The young core of pitching will always keep them competitive.  Some upgrades to their offense should help keep this team right around .500 again in 2016 as they show they are not in the cellar, but also not elite.

Fearless Prediction

Chris Archer will start the 2016 All Star Game.

One part of the Rays' roster that is elite is Chris Archer.  He is quickly turning into possibly the best of all the pitchers to come through Tampa Bay (yes, that includes David Price).  He has all the skills to be one of the league's elite pitchers, and he has the personality to be considered a true superstar.  Look for Archer to come out and have a phenomenal start that leads to potentially the start in the All Star Game.