2019 Pre-Season Profile: Detroit Tigers

#27

The Detroit Tigers are definitely in a rebuild mode in the weakest division in baseball.  Can they take advantage of the poor division and be a surprise this season?

My 2018 Predictions

5th in AL Central

2018 will be Victor Martinez's last season, and he will not finish it on the Tigers' roster.

2018 Results

64-98, 3rd in AL Central

Your division must be pretty bad if you almost get 100 losses and still finish third in your division.  Manager Ron Gardenhire's first season in Detroit wasn't spectacular, but it looks like he is steering it in the right direction.  As for my fearless prediction, it somehow came true.  After a season that truly showed that Victor Martinez had nothing left in the tank, he walked away from the game with a great farewell gesture about one week before the end of the season.  It was a fitting end for a great player that will have a fascinating argument for Cooperstown in five years.

Additions / Subtractions

Outside of the Victor Martinez retirement, there were only a few subtractions.  Catcher James McCann, pitcher Francisco Liriano, and shortstop Jose Iglesias hit free agency and went elsewhere.  They replaced them with some short term veteran players to fill in the gap while they wait for some of their prospects to develop.  So in comes shortstop Jordy Mercer, super utilityman Josh Harrison, and starters Tyson Ross and Matt Moore.  All of these players are just looking for an opportunity to show that they still have some value to teams who might be looking for help at the Trade Deadline.

Most Important Hitter

Nicholas Castellanos

There are only a few players left from the previous Tiger core that can still have some value on the trade market.  Possibly the most notable of these is Nicholas Castellanos.  Even through the lean years in Detroit, he has been a model of consistency, putting up solid season after solid season.  This will only be his age 27 season, and he will not be a free agent until after the 2020 season.  This Trade Deadline would be the ideal time to move him, but he has to prove he can continue his All Star caliber play to make the most impact on the market.

Most Important Pitcher

Michael Fulmer

A year younger than Castellanos, Michael Fulmer has been an anchor to the Tiger rotation since he broke into the league in 2016 as the Rookie of the Year.  He followed it up with an All Star appearance in 2017, but 2018 was disappointing as he fell below average (according to ERA+) for the first time in his career.  Fulmer, like Castellanos, has been rumored to be a trade chip for quite awhile.  He has to return to All Star form for Fulmer to be valuable to the Tigers on the trade market.

Prospect to Watch

Alex Faedo

The reason the Tigers might be eager to move on from Michael Fulmer is their farm system.  The Tigers have five right handed starters listed in the top 100 prospects in all of baseball that are set to break into the big leagues in the next couple seasons, including Casey Mize, last year's number one overall pick.  The pitcher out of this group most likely to make his debut and have an impact in 2019 is Alex Faedo, the Tigers' first round pick from 2017.  The 23 year old pitcher out of Florida made it to AA in his first full season of pro ball in 2018.  If he continues on this fast track to the big leagues, look or him to be in the Tigers' rotation by the end of the season.

2019 Prediction

4th in AL Central

The Tigers are still a couple years away from being relevant, but they are on the way back and will at least be interesting.  Their farm system will be slowly bringing their new core along over the next couple seasons.  Until then, Tiger fans will have to instead ask themselves questions like, "Will Miguel Cabrera stay healthy enough to play the whole season?"  And people wonder why teams are now hesitant to sign players to the mega deals...

Fearless Prediction

Both Nicholas Castellanos and Michael Fulmer will be traded mid-season.

The Tigers have an outstanding farm system when it comes to pitching, but they are lacking the studs offensively.  If you aren't planning on these two being a part of the plan in this next wave, the sooner you trade them the better.  There is no reason for either of these two to have bad years, which means their trade value should be as high as it will ever be come the Trade Deadline.  Move on and keep going on the rebuild.

2016 Pre-Season Profile: San Diego Padres

The San Diego Padres had a very disappointing 2015 season after stocking up on huge names heading into the season.  Now that expectations have fallen back down to earth, will the Padres have a more successful 2016?

Last Season

My 2015 Prediction: 2nd in NL West, WILD CARD, lose in Wild Card Game

2015 Result: 74-88, 4th in NL West

I'll admit, I was one of the people sold on the Padres last season.  With all the moves they made, they looked destined for a big year in 2015.  However, all those expectations came crashing down as the season could only be viewed as a colossal failure.  They fired their long-time manager and decided they needed to reset again after the one year experiment.

2016 Additions / Subtractions

Like I said, after the poor 2015 season, the Padres had to reshuffle the deck again.  They let Justin Upton and Ian Kennedy walk, and traded Craig Kimbrel and Jedd Gyorko.  Two of those names are ones that made the 2015 offseason such a success.  Coming onto the roster this year are Fernando Rodney, John Jay, and Alexei Ramirez.  They are good players, but definitely not the caliber of what they lost.

Most Important Hitter

Wil Myers

After winning Rookie of the Year in 2013 for the Rays, Wil Myers has been plagued by injuries.  His trade to the Padres last season was supposed to be the cornerstone of their resurgence, but he only played 60 games.  He is projected to the their starting first baseman this season, which might save some wear and tear on his body, but as one of the few young pieces brought in from the 2015 offseason, he needs to show a return to his rookie form for this front office to not be considered a complete failure.

Most Important Pitcher

Andrew Cashner

Andrew Cashner has shown flashes of brilliance over the last few seasons.  Last season was not one of those times.  He was once considered one of the emerging young arms in the game.  Now, he has a huge question mark about how good he could potentially be.  The starting rotation for the Padres has been a strength the last few seasons, and 2016 shouldn't be any different.  However, Cashner needs to finally show he can be a potential All Star starter for this staff to be as deep as it has been the last few years.

Player to Watch

Colin Rea

Like I said, the starting rotation for the Padres has been their strength the last few seasons.  The next big arm they have coming into that rotation is Colin Rea.  Rea made his big league debut last season with marginal success, but now he is projected to start the season in the rotation.  He is just one of a young wave of players that will have a potential impact for the 2016 Padres.

2016 Prediction

5th in NL West

Last season, the Padres were a popular pick to do great things.  With many of those moves not working, it has left the Padres in chaos.  They sold the farm last year to bring in players that didn't work.  Now they are stuck with guys like Melvin Upton, Jr., Matt Kemp, and James Shields and not a very rich farm system to add depth.  They are stuck.  Add to that a rookie manager with no experience, and this season has the potential of being a major disaster for San Diego.

Fearless Prediction

The Padres will trade over half of their starting rotation by the end of the season.

If this season becomes the dumpster fire I think it could be, the Padres will be heavy sellers at the Trade Deadline, and they have three guys in their starting rotation that could be key pieces for any contender.  "Big Game" James Shields would be a welcome addition to any playoff staff with his durability and experience.  Andrew Cashner, if he plays well this year, could be a wild card for a team looking for some rotation depth.  Their ace this season, Tyson Ross, would be the key piece.  He is young and talented.  If they want to really bolster their farm system and future, he would need to go.  The Padres' current front office seems to have a "go big or go home" mentality, so watch for all three of them to be traded, which would leave a guy like Colin Rea as their ace.