2019 Pre-Season Profile: Seattle Mariners

#20

The Seattle Mariners followed up an 89 win season in 2018 with a crazy active offseason that reset their roster for the second time in three years, this time aiming for more sustainable success.  Will all these moves lead to similar success in 2019?

2018 Predictions

3rd in AL West

Ichiro will be released by Memorial Day.

2018 Results

89-73, 3rd in AL West

Although the Mariners ended up exactly where I predicted them to be, it says little about the season they had.  For most of 2018, the Mariners looked destined to end their long playoff drought until a tough stretch to end the season, combined with a furious charge by the A's, kept them from the postseason.  Through many ups and downs, including Ichiro only lasting a month (but not leaving the organization) and a half and Robinson Cano getting suspended for steroids, the season had to be considered a success even without the playoff berth.

Additions / Subtractions

General manager Jerry DiPoto can't help but make move after move every offseason.  This winter saw several blockbuster trades that, as he said, "re-imagined" the Mariners roster.  First, catcher Mike Zunino and outfielder Guillermo Heredia were sent to Tampa Bay for centerfielder Mallex Smith.  Then, second baseman Robinson Cano and closer Edwin Diaz were sent to the Mets for outfielder Jay Bruce, top prospects Jerred Kelenic and Justin Dunn, and reliever prospect Gerson Bautista.  Then, ace James Paxton was traded to the Yankees for pitching prospects Justus Sheffield and Erik Swanson.  Then, shortstop Jean Segura along with relievers Juan Nicasio and James Pazos was traded to the Phillies for shortstop prospect J.P. Crawford and slugger Carlos Santana.  Then, Carlos Santana was traded to the Indians for slugger Edwin Encarnacion.  Then, reliever Alex Colome was traded to the White Sox for catcher Omar Narvaez.  Then, outfielder Ben Gamel was traded to the Brewers for outfielder Domingo Santana.  Then, Nelson Cruz, Denard Span, Cameron Maybin, Nick Vincent, and Erasmo Ramirez left in free agency.  Coming in through free agency were shortstop Tim Beckham, closer Hunter Strickland, and Japanese ace Yusei Kikuchi.  It is like DiPoto treats the Mariners roster the way I would treat my fantasy roster.

Most Important Hitter

Dee Gordon

One of the bigger acquisitions of last offseason was speedster Dee Gordon.  After an experiment of putting him in centerfield was thwarted by the Cano suspension, he is entering 2019 as the Mariners starting second baseman.  A former batting champion in 2015, Gordon fought through injuries to a disappointing season of just hitting .268 and an ERA+ of 79.  Looking at Gordon's track record, he tends to alternate good seasons and bad seasons.  2015 was good, 2016 was poor.  2017 was good, 2018 was poor.  Now we are in 2019, and the on base machine should be back at it.  If that happens, he will either emerge as a top veteran leader of this club or be the latest to be traded for more prospects.

Most Important Pitcher

Marco Gonzales

One of the biggest developments of the 2018 season was the emergence of Marco Gonzales as the new ace of the Mariners staff, especially once James Paxton was traded.  Marco's season had ups and downs, but when he was on there were few better.  He will end Felix Hernandez's streak of 10 straight Opening Day starts, and no one argues that he hasn't earned it.  He is now a few years removed from Tommy John surgery, with 2018 being his first full season in the big leagues.  He threw 166.2 innings in 2018.  Before that, his high innings count in the big leagues was 40 innings in 2017.  The biggest question for Marco's 2019 season is whether he will continue to progress and grow into the staff ace or if he will break down from too much work.

Prospect to Watch

Justus Sheffield

All those trades made this offseason took the Mariners farm system from being worst in the league to almost hitting the top 10.  The best prospect they received is also the one most likely to have a big impact this season.  Justus Sheffield pitched sparingly for the Yankees last season, mainly providing some depth in the bullpen at the end of the season.  However, look for Sheffield to be a staple of the Mariners rotation by the end of this season and join Marco, Kikuchi, and Wade LeBlanc in the super lefty-heavy rotation.

2019 Prediction

4th in AL West

This team is nowhere near as good as it was last year.  Too many productive veterans were moved for too many unproven prospects.  However, the thought behind the moves seems to have been achieved.  If they win 89 games and can't make the playoffs right now, then there isn't much they can do to get over that hump as things stand today.  So take a step back, and live to fight in 2020 and 2021, when some of the powerhouses (Astros, Yankees, Red Sox) may need to start looking at breaking up their current core due to either age or free agency.  That is when the Mariners are now looking at peaking.  They have a shot to be around .500 this season, but they won't be competing for the playoffs much this season.

Fearless Prediction

Felix Hernandez will not finish the season on the Mariners roster.

The biggest mystery of the Mariners season is what to do with King Felix.  He has been the team's unquestioned ace for over a decade.  However, the last couple season have seen a falloff in production as his workload seems to have caught up with him.  He is entering his age 33 season and the final deal of his 7 year, $175 million deal he signed in 2013.  Everyone keeps waiting for the second stage of his career to start, but it is looking more and more like it will never come.  With the direction this roster is going, I see only two ways this season plays out for Felix: either he plays well enough to get trade value to be moved or he continues his poor play and ends up released.  Either way, as weird as it is to say for the face of this franchise, but it is hard to see a scenario where Felix Hernandez finishes this season on the Mariners roster.

2018 Pre-Season Profile: Miami Marlins

#30

It is a magical time of year.  Pitchers and catchers have reported to Spring Training, and the rest of the players are not far behind.  We are less than a week away from the first Spring Training game, and before we know it, we will be in the middle of another outstanding baseball season.  This offseason has been unlike any other, with many of the top free agents still looking for jobs as camps open.  Players are looking to cash in with big contracts while clubs are scared of signing the latest free agent bust.  The trade market has been rich, with many teams searching for alternate solutions to upgrade their roster.  As I start my pre-season profiles for each club, there are still many unanswered questions for many players and many teams.

As we go from last to first, we start with one of the most active teams of the offseason as they seemed determined to go from average and emerging to terrible and rebuilding.

My 2017 Predictions

4th in NL East

The Marlins will trade for Jose Quintana mid-season.

2017 Results
77-85, 2nd in NL East

The Marlins finished with almost the exact same record as they did in 2016, however the weak NL East had them finish in second.  After tragically losing one of the faces of the franchise in Jose Fernandez at the end of the 2016 season, their other face, Giancarlo Stanton, had a career year that ended in him winning the NL MVP award.  I thought the Marlins might make some moves to really try and compete, with the starting rotation being the biggest hole in their roster.  Instead of making a splash for a guy like Quintana, the splash came in the new ownership group that was in place by the time the season ended.

Additions / Subtractions

With Derek Jeter & Co. now owning the Marlins, the philosophy of the franchise took a complete 180.  Instead of trying to find new ways to complement their strong lineup, the new ownership group decided the status quo was not sustainable financially.  If they needed to shed payroll, they needed to just blow up the current core and start over.  That is exactly what they did.  Gone are All Star caliber players like Dee Gordon, Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna, and reigning MVP Stanton along with the hundreds of millions of dollars committed to them.  Prospects were brought back, but some of the trades were simply salary dumps when you see the level of prospects they got in return.  The franchise had a complete reset, with second baseman Starlin Castro being the only established major leaguer brought back in any transaction.

Most Important Hitter

J.T. Realmuto

Along with Justin Bour, Realmuto is one of only two remaining members of the former Marlins core still on the roster, and he is not happy about it.  He has been very vocal this offseason about the fact that he wants to be traded as well so he has a chance to compete.  This makes him valuable to the Marlins because if they do decide to move him (which might be necessary if he becomes a cancer in the locker room) he should bring back a decent haul.  Yelich brought back the best haul of the offseason trades.  A similar haul might be in the cards for Realmuto, a 27 year old catcher with pop getting ready to enter his prime.

Most Important Pitcher

Jose Urena

In a year where the pitching staff was the downfall of the Marlins, Urena was a bright spot in 2017, going well over 100 innings for the first time in his career.  He was effective in those innings, earning 14 wins, a 3.82 ERA, and a 106 ERA+.  This makes him the only Marlins pitcher with more than 10 starts that was above league average (ERA+ 100).  All of this is promising, considering he is only entering his age 26 season.  This may be the future ace of the staff if he isn't already.  He may be one of the few things Marlins fans have to look forward to.

Prospect to Watch

Lewis Brinson

By far, the best prospect the Marlins got in their wheeling and dealing this offseason was Lewis Brinson from the Brewers in the Yelich deal.  He has been one of the top prospects for the last few years in all of baseball, and he is slated to be the Marlins Opening Day centerfielder.  He has a real chance of becoming a star and a new face of the new Marlins for the foreseeable future.

2018 Prediction

5th in NL East

Almost by design, the Marlins have the worst roster in the league by a decent amount.  They seem to be trying to employ the Astros blueprint of success.  Tear down to nothing and rebuild around some top draft picks.  The problem with this method is it takes several years to see any results.  Expect at least two or three 100 loss seasons before the Marlins improve.

Fearless Prediction

Half of the Marlins Opening Day starting lineup will not be on the roster by season's end.

The Marlins can't be done unloading pieces.  They should probably pick up a couple veteran players that are still in free agency to fill out their roster so they can at least look respectable on Opening Day.  However, look for players like Martin Prado, Starlin Castro, J.T. Realmuto, Justin Bour, Dan Straily, Wei-Yin Chen, and whatever veterans they might pick up along the way to either be traded or dropped by season's end.

2016 Pre-Season Profile: Miami Marlins

The Miami Marlins have a history of either being really good or really bad.  In 2015, they reached a rare position: they were mediocre.  Will 2016 be a step in one direction or another?

Last Season

My 2015 Prediction: 2nd in NL East

2015 Result: 71-91, 3rd in NL East

I was high on the Marlins coming into the 2015 season, however the season quickly went south and turned bizarre when they fired their manager Mike Redmond in favor of their general manager who had never managed before on any level.  I had them in second potentially battling for a Wild Card spot.  Instead, they ended up with 90 losses.  The only thing that kept them from going lower in the standings was how bad the Braves and Phillies were.

2016 Additions / Subtractions

The Marlins always seem to either go all in or sell everyone every offseason.  This offseason looked a little different.  They brought in a solid starter in Wei-Yin Chen and re-signed Dee Gordon.  They really didn't do much more.  They know they have something interesting building in Miami, and these few moves are small pieces that will help the team continue to develop.  The biggest move they made was at manager.  Don Mattingly is a vast improvement over the joke that was Dan Jennings last season.  He will actually be able to lead this team where they need to go.

Most Important Hitter

Marcell Ozuna

Many people say Marcell Ozuna is one of those special talents that can do it all.  The problem is he has yet to put it all together on the field for the Marlins.  For the Marlins to start taking steps forward, a player like Ozuna has to have a breakout season and show what kind of player his talent projects him to be.

Most Important Pitcher

Jose Fernandez

In 2013, Jose Fernandez showed that he has the talent to be one of the best pitchers in baseball.  Then, the dreaded Tommy John derailed his next two seasons.  Now, he is entering 2016 at full strength and should ready to be the superstar again.  This team is currently being built around two superstars: Fernandez and Giancarlo Stanton.  For this to continue, Fernandez needs to get back to that elite status.

Player to Watch

Jarlin Garcia

One problem the Marlins have is they do not have a very good farm system.  Their best prospects are still a few years away also.  The best player in the system that has a chance to make an impact this season is Jarlin Garcia.  He is a 23 year old left-handed pitcher that could get some starts this season for the big club.  Depending on his success, he could figure more into the plans moving forward.

2016 Prediction

3rd in NL East

The Marlins should be better than they were last season, however it shouldn't move them up the standings in the NL East at all.  The NL East has two elite teams, two terrible teams, and the Marlins who are somewhere in the middle.  In the next couple seasons, they might be contenders but not quite yet.

Fearless Prediction

Giancarlo Stanton will play a full season and hit 55+ home runs.

Giancarlo Stanton is a freak.  His only problem so far has been injuries, many of them freak injuries.  He hasn't played a full season since 2011.  Last season, he hit 27 home runs in 74 games.  That is just insane!  He is due to catch some breaks in terms of the injury bug so he can truly show what kind of production he can have.  He was halfway to 55 home runs in less than half the season in 2015.  A full season in 2016 should bring ridiculous production.

2015 Pre-Season Profile: Miami Marlins

The Miami Marlins had a surprising 2014 led by one of the best players on the planet.  Will the Marlins continue to take steps forward, or are they still more laughable than legitimate?

Last Season

77-85, 4th in NL East

Ever since the Miami Marlins went on a spending spree then sold off all their new acquisitions, not much has been expected of them.  In 2014, they at least started to show that they are headed in the right direction.  The emergence of potential future stars like Christian Yelich and Marcell Ozuna showed the league that the Marlins may be in the discussion much sooner than people thought.  Even without superstar Jose Fernandez for most of the season, the Marlins won 15 more games than in 2013, and if it wasn't for a late-season freak injury, they may have also had the NL MVP in Giancarlo Stanton.  (This shot is still the most impressive home run I have ever seen!)

2015 Additions / Subtractions

The list of offseason moves starts mainly with who is not leaving.  When the Marlins were able to ink Giancarlo Stanton to a 13 year deal (with a no trade clause), it was possibly the first time in the franchise's history they have shown a commitment to long term success and spending.  With Stanton signed, the Marlins didn't stop there, remaining active throughout the whole offseason.  As opposed to the 2012 offseason where they went after high end free agents with big price tags, this time around they improved their team with small move after small move.  They traded for Martin Prado to replace departing third baseman Casey McGehee.  They traded for Dee Gordon and Dan Haren from the Dodgers.  They also traded for Mat Latos from the Reds.  Then they signed veterans like Mike Morse and Ichiro Suzuki to fill out the roster and add depth.  With only McGehee and starter Nathan Eovaldi being the only players that saw significant time in 2014 departing the roster, the Marlins definitely looked greatly improved in 2015.

Most Important Hitter

Dee Gordon

In his first full year as a second baseman, Dee Gordon had a career year in 2014, making the All Star Team for the first time and leading the league in triples and stolen bases.  Now, he has been brought over to Miami to be the table setter for their young lineup.  The Marlins are counting on Gordon to continue the progress he made in 2014 and play like one of the best lead-off hitters in the league.  His talent says that he can be and should be.  Having a player like Ichiro, one of the best lead-off hitters maybe of all time, on the roster could help Gordon be great.

Most Important Pitcher

Henderson Alvarez

With Jose Fernandez not quite fully recovered from his Tommy John surgery, and no one knowing if he will be all the way back to 100% this season, it puts a lot of pressure on the rest of the staff to pick up the slack.  This is probably why the Marlins brought in veterans like Mat Latos and Dan Haren to solidify the back end of the rotation, but the majority of this pressure is going to fall on the young shoulders of Henderson Alvarez.  He is capable of shouldering the load as he did in 2014, winning 12 games with a 2.65 ERA.  If he can repeat that production, he and Fernandez will be quite the formidable duo at the top of the rotation for years to come.

Player to Watch

Justin Nicolino

Usually, when you think about the Marlins, you think about young prospects getting a chance to prove themselves (usually before they are ready).  This year's Marlins are not quite that way, with each position fairly set for the year.  One name to watch for, though, is Justin Nicolino.  With so much age ... I mean ... experience ... at the back end of the Marlins' rotation, it is highly likely they decide to move on from one or two of their elder statesmen that are not able to perform like they did in their glory days.  If this happens, look for lefty Nicolino to be one of the first to get a shot to prove himself.

Prediction

2nd in NL East

The Marlins have definitely taken another step forward heading into 2015.  Combine that with a weak division this year, and it is highly plausible to see Miami finishing above .500 and competing for a Wild Card spot through most of the summer, no matter how much they get out of Jose Fernandez.  With a healthy 100% Fernandez, who knows how far this team can go?  This has definitely become a team to watch moving forward, if for no other reason than to see what Giancarlo Stanton is going to do with the bat next.