2023 Pre-Season Profile: Miami Marlins

 #17

The Miami Marlins have some of the most exciting talent in all of baseball on their roster.  Can their stars stay healthy and produce a better season on the field in 2023?

2022 Predictions

#23 - 4th in NL East

MIH - Jazz Chisholm Jr.

MIP - Jesus Luzardo

PTW - Max Meyer

2022 Results

#22 - 63-93, 4th in NL East

Highest WAR (Position) - Miguel Rojas

Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Sandy Alcantara

The Marlins 2022 season can be summed up in one word: Sandy.  Sandy Alcantara emerged as possibly the best pitcher in all of baseball (if not the best, at least the biggest workhorse) and wrapped up the season with a Cy Young and a top 10 MVP finish.  With that said, the Marlins ran into two problems in 2022.  They were in one of the most competitive divisions in all of baseball, and the rest of the roster couldn't keep up with Sandy.  Alcantara had an 8.0 WAR season, but the next best player had only a 3.0 WAR season (Pablo Lopez).  The players in 4th and 5th on the team in WAR (Jon Berti, Jazz Chisholm Jr.) only played 102 and 60 games respectively.  If guys who only play half the season put together your most productive seasons, it's hard to have a productive season.

Additions / Subtractions

The biggest move of the offseason for the Marlins is manager Don Mattingly moving on and replaced by rookie manager Skip Schumaker.  In terms of the roster, the Marlins made some fascinating moves that rode the line between building the big league roster and moving on from big league talent.  They traded shortstop Miguel Rojas to the Dodgers.  The traded starter Pablo Lopez to the Twins for last year's AL batting champ Luis Arraez.  They traded J.J. Bleday to the A's for A.J. Puk in an exchange of former phenoms in need of a change of scenery.  They signed a crew of veterans that includes starter Johnny Cueto, reliever Matt Barnes, infielders Yuli Gurriel, Jean Segura, and Jose Iglesias.  It was a very active offseason for sure.

Most Important Hitter

Jazz Chisholm Jr.

I said he was the Marlins most important hitter in 2022, but it might be even more important in 2023.  Jazz Chisholm Jr. is a budding superstar that is quickly becoming one of the more recognizable faces in baseball.  His style and flash have turned enough heads to make him the cover athlete for this year's MLB The Show even though he has barely played 200 career games.  He was an All Star in 2022, but injuries held him to only 60 games.  Now, with the acquisition of Luis Arraez, Jazz is not only trying to stay healthy, but he's planning on doing it at the new position of centerfield.  This season will be a big season for Jazz as he tries to prove that he deserves the notoriety he has garnered, and also that he can anchor the Marlins lineup and locker room.

Most Important Pitcher

Sandy Alcantara

It's easy to say the reigning Cy Young Award is going to be his team's most important pitcher, but this is especially the case for the Marlins for several reasons.  Like I said earlier, Sandy Alcantara was the Marlins last season.  He also threw over 200 innings for the second season in a row.  In fact, in 2022 he threw 23 more innings than any other pitcher in baseball.  Alcantara is a work horse and built like an old school pitcher, however this workload tends to wear down an arm pretty quick.  If the Marlins are going to have a successful season, Alcantara needs to throw 200 innings again.  The question is if his arm can withstand that innings load again.

Prospect to Watch

Eury Perez

Pretty soon, Alcantara will be joined by an electric phenom.  Eury Perez is only 19 years old (turns 20 in April) and is just about ready to make an impact at the big league level.  At 6'8" 220 pounds, Perez can touch triple digits with his fastball while featuring a full 4 pitch mix.  Ranked the 13th best prospect in MLB, if he continues to dominate at every level, the Marlins might have a second coming of their current ace.

2023 Prediction

4th in NL East

It's hard to think of a 4th place divisional finish as a step forward, but that's the best the Marlins can hope for in 2023.  I think they actually might benefit the most of any team having the balanced schedule this season.  In 2022, over one-third of the Marlins schedule was against the Mets, Braves, and NL champ Phillies.  The new schedule drops that number to less than one-fourth (39 games instead of 57).  They have a good chance at finishing the season around .500, which will be good for 4th at best with the superteams in front of them.  It feels like they are building the roster the right way though.

Fearless Prediction

Sandy Alcantara will win a second straight Cy Young.

Alcantara's arm might break down at some point, but not this year.  If he stays healthy, a second straight Cy Young should be easy for Sandy to get simply because of the high workload while remaining dominant.  No one pitches like he does anymore.  It's a bad start if he only goes 7 innings.  He wants a complete game every time out.  Alcantara had 6 complete games in 2022.  The next highest was 2.  If he is able to throw 200 innings again, the Cy Young will be in Miami again.

2021 Pre-Season Profile: Miami Marlins

 #20

The Miami Marlins were the surprise of the 2020 season, fighting through COVID issues to somehow make the playoffs and even win a series.  Was that a crazy 60 game anomaly, or are the Marlins ready to be a perennial contender?

2020 Predictions

#22 - 5th in NL East

MIH - Brian Anderson

MIP - Sandy Alcantara

PTW - Jesus Sanchez

FP - The Marlins will win a World Series in the next 5 years.

2020 Results

#14 - 31-29, 2nd in NL East, lost in NLDS

As you can tell by my Fearless Prediction from last year, I could see some Miami Marlins success coming soon, but no one saw it coming this soon.  The Marlins also dealt with most COVID issues of any club in the league, yet through all that they made made a postseason run thanks to the expanded playoff setup last year that allowed all 2nd place finishers a spot in the tournament.  There has never been a more deserving Manager of the Year award handed out than Don Mattingly in 2020.

Additions / Subtractions

The Marlins roster looks practically the same in 2021 as it did at the end of 2020.  There was some turnover in the bullpen as there is with every club.  Jose Urena, their Opening Day starter in 2018, was allowed to walk.  They also brought in Adam Duvall to man a corner outfield spot.  Other than that, the roster looks roughly the same.  The biggest news the Marlins made over the offseason was the hiring of their new GM, Kim Ng.  She is the first woman to hold that role in MLB so there will definitely be a spotlight on her and the decisions around this roster this season.

Most Important Hitter

Starling Marte

In 2020, the Marlins actually found themselves as buyers at the Trade Deadline and made an incredibly savvy move by acquiring Starling Marte from the Diamondbacks.  Instantly, his presence in the lineup made it feel more legitimate.  It wasn't just a group of kids anymore.  Moving into 2021, Marte will serve that same role of being a quality veteran presence in the heart of the lineup and also provide the leadership needed for the upcoming young core.

Most Important Pitcher

Sixto Sanchez

It's rare that a player that still has his rookie status is the most important player on a club, but that is the case for Sixto Sanchez.  A highly regarded prospect and the centerpiece of the J.T. Realmuto trade to the Phillies, Sanchez made his debut in late August and in only 7 stars, he worked his way up to being 3rd on the team in WAR and was the #2 starter during the Marlins' playoff run behind ace Sandy Alcantara.  Now the Marlins need Sanchez to make the jump from phenom to established dominant ace at the top of their rotation.  It's a lot to ask for a kid only entering his age 22 season, but he has the stuff to do it.

Prospect to Watch

Jazz Chisholm

The Marlins currently have 5 players (including Sixto Sanchez) in MLB's Top 100 Prospects list.  Although Sixto is still technically a prospect, the most exciting rookie to watch this season for the Marlins might be Jazz Chisholm.  Ranked the 66th best prospect in baseball, Jazz played in 21 games for the Marlins last season with marginal success.  Now he is slated to be their starting 2nd baseman on Opening Day.  He has all the tools to be a star with the personality (and the name) to go along with it.  He will be a fun watch for this young and exciting team moving forward.

2021 Prediction

5th in NL East

I know the Marlins finished 2nd last year.  I know they are a team on the rise.  I know everything is moving in the right direction for this franchise that has often struggled to do that.  The problem is this is, in 2021, the most competitive division I can remember.  In this division, you have four other teams that have built super rosters and are fully committed to winning right now.  In a full 162 game season, I don't see the Marlins overtaking any of the other four.

Fearless Prediction

2021 will be the last time the Miami Marlins finish in the cellar of the NL East for the next decade.

Like I said, the Marlins are moving in the right direction and are very close to breaking out into an elite team.  2021 is not the time, but in the next few years they will be hitting their peak.  Behind Kim Ng and CEO Derek Jeter, look for the Marlins to have sustainable success moving forward.  Who would've thought this was possible after they traded away Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna, and J.T. Realmuto just a few short years ago.