2016 Pre-Season Profile: Baltimore Orioles

For the past few years, the Baltimore Orioles have been stuck one step from the top.  In 2014, the made it to the ALCS.  In 2015, they missed the playoffs.  What will happen in 2016?

Last Season

My 2015 Prediction: 3rd in AL East

2015 Result: 81-81, 3rd in AL East

I got their spot right on last season.  They entered the 2015 season without making any moves to move them forward, and they ended up stalling for the whole season while other teams passed them up.  Everyone saw this coming.  They needed to do something to improve their roster and didn't.  That was the result because of it.

2016 Additions / Subtractions

It was going to be really interesting to see if they did anything different this offseason after a quiet offseason last year cost them a chance to do something special.  They lost guys like Wei-Yin Chen, Steve Pearce, and Gerrardo Parra to free agency.  However, the biggest thing they did this offseason was re-sign first baseman Chris Davis.  Then they did actually bring in some outside help this offseason also, trading for Mark Trumbo and signing Pedro Alvarez and Yovani Gallardo.  They aren't blockbuster signings, but they definitely fit in what the O's are all about and will help the team out.  The Orioles also were a part of the weirdest story of the offseason, signing Dexter Fowler only to have the whole thing fall apart and Fowler end up back with the Cubs.

Most Important Hitter

Matt Wieters

Matt Wieters, along with Colby Rasmus and Brett Anderson, made history this offseason by becoming the first players to ever take their qualifying offers instead of testing free agency (I think some others are wishing they had done the same ... Dexter Fowler and Ian Desmond to name a few).  Matt Wieters needs a bounce back season.  From 2011-2013, he made two All Star Teams, won two Gold Gloves, got some MVP votes, and hit 20+ home runs each season.  Then he had Tommy John surgery and has yet to return to that form since.  He only played in 75 games last season after playing almost double that in each season in that earlier stretch.  Not only are the Orioles counting on a return to past glory, but by accepting the qualifying offer, it shows Matt Wieters is hoping for the same thing so he can get his big pay day next offseason.

Most Important Pitcher

Chris Tillman

The one consistent member of the Orioles pitching staff over the past four or five seasons has been Chris Tillman.  It shows just how much they believe in him to be the only cog that hasn't been a revolving door in that rotation.  However, last season was pretty rough for Tillman.  With Wei-Yin Chen moving on to Miami, Tillman is being counted on to be the ace, even with Yovani Gallardo in the fold.  He has to pitch like he did in 2013 and 2014 for the Orioles to have success in 2016.

Player to Watch

Dylan Bundy

It feels like Dylan Bundy has been the player to watch for Baltimore for 5 years now.  Well, that's because he has.  After being taken in the 2011 draft 4th overall, he made his big league debut in 2012.  Then, a series of injuries kept him from playing much since.  Now, because of those two games he played in 2012 at the age of 19, he is now potentially facing waivers if he does not crack the Opening Day roster.  His story is similar to Danny Hultzen, second overall pick by the Mariners in the same 2011 Draft.  His arm issues have held him back in the same way.  The only difference is Hultzen never made his debut so his service clock hasn't started yet.  It will be very interesting to see if Bundy makes the Orioles' roster, most likely in the bullpen if he does.  If he doesn't, there is a good chance he is not Oriole property when the season starts.

2016 Prediction

4th in AL East

Yes, the Orioles have made improvements to their roster, however if you really look at it, they really just replaced what they already had with comparable pieces.  Trumbo replaces Parra, Alvarez replaces Pearce, and Gallardo replaces Chen.  Those are comparable, if not inferior, replacements for every position (and Gallardo was a late addition).  I see them in the exact same spot as last year.  They are still good, but everyone else around them is getting better, and they will continue to fall down the standings of the AL East until they commit and make a splash.

Fearless Prediction

Manny Machado will be playing shortstop by the end of the season.

Manny Machado has become one of the best third basemen in the league.  However, his natural position is shortstop.  He came up as a third baseman because of how well J.J. Hardy had played at short.  It has always been in the back of everyone's mind that eventually, Manny Machado would end up at shortstop, the onl question was when.  Last year, J.J. Hardy had a terrible season as his age looked like it might have finally caught up with him a little.  If he struggles at all this season, look for him to be traded to finally clear the path for Machado to shine at his natural position.

2015 Pre-Season Profile: Texas Rangers

After four straight 90+ win seasons, the Texas Rangers had an injury-plagued season for the ages in 2014 that took them from the top of their division to the bottom.  Will 2015 mark a return to their winning ways, or was 2014 a sign of future struggling?

Last Season

67-95, 5th in AL West

The Rangers seemed to set records in 2014 for most days spent on the DL by their players.  As a self-proclaimed Rangers hater, I couldn't help but feel sorry for a club that was forced to only be a shell of their potential self.  For the first time since 2007, the Rangers were not in either first or second in the division.  It was a lost season that ended up with a finish in the cellar and a question of what things could have been.

2015 Additions / Subtractions

The biggest move the Rangers made this offseason was trading for veteran starter Yovani Gallardo from the Brewers.  Outside of this move, the Rangers were quite quiet over the offseason.  Their main additions came from getting players back from injury like Prince Fielder, Shin Soo Choo, and Derek Holland.  The subtractions start with the loss of manager Ron Washington, who resigned near the end of the 2014 season.  Although the calendar has turned, injuries have not ended for the Rangers, with former top prospect Jurickson Profar missing his second consecutive season with a shoulder injury and Yu Darvish going down in Spring Training with the dreaded Tommy John.

Most Important Hitter

Prince Fielder

It was hard to remember that the talk of the 2014 offseason was the Rangers acquiring Prince Fielder from the Tigers for Ian Kinsler.  This is because Fielder, who was a model of consistency his whole career, missed most of the season with an injury.  Now he is healthy and is needed desperately to anchor their lineup as one of the only players in their lineup with any pop.  If he can return to his superstar form this year, then the Rangers will have a chance to be back on top sooner than later.

Most Important Pitcher

Neftali Feliz

Neftali Feliz has had quite a roller coaster career so far.  Early on in his career, Feliz shot to stardom as one of the most dominant closers in the league.  Then the Rangers decided to try and make him a starter.  After a decent start to his 2012 season, Feliz needed Tommy John surgery and has not played a full season since.  Now, he is finally back healthy to start a season and back in the closer role for the Rangers.  The team needs him to be back to the player he was in 2011, his last full season as the closer.

Player to Watch

Joey Gallo

This could be a fascinating situation to watch moving through this season.  Joey Gallo is the best prospect in the Rangers' system and the 10th best prospect in baseball.  After an outstanding Spring Training, he looks like a star in the making.  There is only one thing keeping him from becoming an impact player in the big leagues: he plays third base which is currently occupied by possible Hall of Famer Adrian Beltre.  If the Rangers struggle at all like they did last year (which is highly likely), look for Beltre to be on the trading block to make room for Gallo.  Beltre still is a top tier player and could really help a team making a stretch run, and Gallo is the type of player that becomes an impact bat in a lineup as soon as he gets an opportunity to play.

Prediction

4th in AL West

Injuries killed the Rangers' season in 2014, and injuries have already affected the 2015 season before it even started.  There is more there though.  The injuries last year exposed just how thin their lineup is in spots and how much they need to grow to get back to the top of the division.  This year will likely be slightly better than last year, but they are definitely a few years away from being back on top.

2015 Pre-Season Profile: Milwaukee Brewers

The Milwaukee Brewers were somewhat of a surprise team last year.  Will they be able to continue their success into 2015?

Last Season

82-80, 3rd in NL Central

No one was really expecting much out of the Brewers last year.  Then they went out and had a winning season, finishing behind only the playoff-bound Cardinals and Pirates.  It was definitely an overachieving effort in 2014.

2015 Additions / Subtractions

The Brewers were almost disturbingly quiet this offseason.  For a team that seemed to be close in 2014, seeking out a few pieces to put them over the edge would have made sense.  The only acquisition made on any front was bringing in slugger Adam Lind to play first base.  On the other hand, they traded ace Yovani Gallardo to the Texas Rangers for prospects.  It almost feels like the Brewers are not quite sure what they want to be; a team of the future or a team of the present.  So instead of deciding, they have stayed in limbo not really committing to either.

Most Important Hitter

Ryan Braun

This is an easy one.  Ryan Braun has been a shell of his former self since his suspension for PEDs.  What was once a perennial MVP candidate has become just another face on his own team.  The emergence of hitters like Carlos Gomez, Khris Davis, Jonathan Lucroy, and Jean Segura, they have established a solid core to the lineup, but they need their leader.  They need their backbone to really be a force to be reckoned with in the NL Central.  That means Braun has to become the feared hitter he once was and earn back some credibility and respectability to his career.

Most Important Pitcher

Matt Garza

In his first year in Milwaukee last year, Matt Garza showed why he has bounced around so much from team to team.  He shows flashes of dominance, but is primarily inconsistent.  The Brewers brought in Garza to be help lead their rotation, but he was out performed by several others on his staff.  If the Brewers are going to have a successful season, Matt Garza needs to be the pitcher he is being paid to be.

Player to Watch

Scooter Gennett

The Brewers have one of the worst farm systems in baseball, with only one prospect cracking MLB.com's Top 100 and none of their top prospects projected to help out the big club for several years still.  This leads to a roster that has no hope of a wild card coming out of nowhere to breathe new life into the club.  With that said, I am focusing here on possibly one of the best young players in the game you haven't heard of.  Scooter Gennett burst onto the scene when he took over as the Brewers' second baseman down the stretch in 2013.  In his first full season last year, he continued to show that he is a top ten player at his position in the league.  Last year, he was second in NL batting average in my ASG-to-ASG rankings, which calculates the end of one year and the start of the next as a complete season's worth of stats.  He struggled a little down the stretch, but look for him to possibly be a surprise All Star selection this year.

Prediction

4th in NL Central

Overall, it appears the Brewers seem to be trending in the wrong direction.  After the surprise start to 2014, something needed to be done to solidify and validate their spot near the top of the division.  Instead, they stayed put and even went backward.  When Adam Lind and a backup shortstop are your only acquisitions, you lose your ace and pitching staff leader, and you don't have any help coming up through the farm system, they might be in for a long season.  I don't see Ryan Braun bouncing back they way they need him to, and I don't see Matt Garza having a dominant season.  They have some great talent, but it is far from coming all together.  They might prove me wrong like they proved everyone wrong last year, but I doubt it.