2019 Pre-Season Profile: Pittsburgh Pirates

#23

The Pittsburgh Pirates had another productive season in 2018.  With the NL Central becoming the most competitive division in baseball, will the Pirates be able to repeat the success that has defined their team in recent years?

2018 Predictions

4th in NL Central

Starling Marte will be traded this season.

2018 Results

82-79, 4th in NL Central

The Pirates had a competitive season in 2018, finishing above .500 for the first time since 2015, competing for a Wild Card spot well into September.  This was quite an accomplishment considering their ace, Gerrit Cole, and their face, Andrew McCutchen, both moved on before the season.  However, the depth of the NL Central left the Pirates in 4th place.  Instead of trying to gather more talent and trading a stud like Marte, they went the other direction and gave up prospects to bring in a new ace in Chris Archer.

Additions / Subtractions

The biggest addition for the Pirates in 2019 was the trade for Archer at the Deadline in 2018.  Speaking strictly offseason, the Pirates were extremely quiet.  Jordy Mercer and Josh Harrison, mainstays in the middle infield for most of the last decade, both signed with the Detroit Tigers in free agency.  Harrison was replaced at 2nd internally with Adam Frazier.  Mercer will be replaced by Erik Gonzalez, a 27 year old shortstop acquired in a low level trade this offseason from the Indians.  The only other significant move the Pirates made was bringing in Lonnie Chisenhall as a utility guy.

Most Important Hitter

Josh Bell

Josh Bell was an elite prospect when he made his debut for the Pirates in 2016.  Now he is entering his third full season at the age of 26.  After a solid 2017, Bell took a step back in 2018 with only 12 home runs and 62 RBI's.  Bell is starting to graduate into veteran territory this season, and he needs to get back on track to being the top slugger his talent shows he can be.  If that happens, he will be an important anchor in the middle of the Pirates order.

Most Important Pitcher

Chris Archer

The Pirates paid a high price for Chris Archer last season even though he was in the middle of his worst season as a professional, finishing with an ERA+ below average for the first time in his career.  The Pirates were banking on the idea that this was an anomaly and not a trend.  Archer has the stuff to be one of the best pitchers in baseball.  However, he is also entering his age 30 season.  He needs to show he is still elite and not on the decline.  If he bounces back, this was a great trade.  If not, this might go down as one of the worst trades in franchise history considering what they gave up to get him.

Prospect to Watch

Ke'Bryan Hayes

The Pirates have a decent farm system, stocked with even more pitching help to make their rotation elite.  However, the best hitter in their farm system is third baseman Ke'Bryan Hayes, the son of former big leaguer Charlie Hayes.  This 22 year old hit right around .300 in AA last season and has a chance to make an impact down the stretch in 2019 at a position that is not a strength for the Pirates right now.  Either way, he is their third baseman of the future.

2019 Prediction

5th in NL Central

I feel there are tiers in baseball this year.  There are about 8 to 10 teams that are elite and about 7 teams that won't be that competitive (the ones already profiled).  The rest of the league is in the middle, fighting for that last playoff spot or two.  I see the Pirates as that dividing line.  They will probably hover right around .500 again and flirt with a playoff berth again.  However, this division will be so competitive, .500 might put them in the cellar.  The Reds are one of the most improved teams in the league, and the three teams above them are not going anywhere.  It may be another successful disappointment in Pittsburgh in 2019.

Fearless Prediction

This will be Clint Hurdle's last season managing the Pirates.

Clint Hurdle is about as good of a baseball guy as you will find.  However, something feels like there is a clock ticking in Pittsburgh with him.  If they do indeed finish in the cellar this season, regardless of record, I can see a scenario where he either is fired or chooses to walk away from the team.  He has definitely brought a new level of success to Pittsburgh, but they have never been able to get over the hump to being elite.  Maybe it would be time for a fresh perspective.

2018 Pre-Season Profile: Pittsburgh Pirates

#24

The Pittsburgh Pirates have taken steps backward in the last few seasons.  Will some recent roster moves lead to more success in 2018?

2017 Predictions

3rd in NL Central

Andrew McCutchen will be traded by the end of the year.

2017 Results

75-87, 4th in NL Central

The Pirates' season seemed to be derailed before it even started when Starling Marte was suspended for 80 games with a PED positive test.  Also, Jung Ho Kang, their Most Important Hitter pre-season last year, never played a game for the Pirates as he couldn't secure a work visa to return to the US.  This all started them down a path where they never really competed all season.  As for my Fearless Prediction, I may have just been a little premature.

Additions / Subtractions

The Pirates appeared to try and reset their roster a little bit this offseason, trading away two of their most productive players from their postseason runs.  Andrew McCutchen is now a Giant, and Gerrit Cole has joined the World Champion Astros.  The only experienced players that have been added to the roster are outfielder Corey Dickerson and pitchers Joe Musgrove and Kyle Crick.  These are not really names that are going to excite fans considering what left.

Most Important Hitter

Starling Marte

This is a big year for Starling Marte for many reasons.  First, he is the biggest established star left on the Pirates' roster.  There are some emerging stars like Gregory Polanco or Josh Bell, but Marte is still the best player.  Also, Marte has some redeeming to do after last season and his suspension.  He needs to prove his production was for real and that he can be counted on and trusted moving forward.  Lastly, the Pirates organization is probably looking at Marte this year and deciding whether he will be a centerpiece of the franchise moving forward or will he be another player to be moved for more prospects.  With all these factors in mind, it is a huge year for Starling Marte.

Most Important Pitcher

Jameson Taillon

Finally, the Pirates were able to see a full season from Jameson Taillon in the big leagues in 2017!  A top prospect derailed by a myriad of health issues, Taillon finally got to start what everyone still hopes will be a promising career.  In 2017, Taillon was an average starting pitcher.  In 2018, he will be asked to start progressing into the star everyone hopes he will be.  The Pirates are banking on their new look team to be anchored by a bright young pitching staff.  Taillon, along with Tyler Glasnow, will be asked to be the anchors of that.

Prospect to Watch

Mitch Keller

The next arm to join the young Pirates rotation will be 21 year old Mitch Keller.  A former 2nd round pick from 2014, Keller is the 15th best prospect in all of baseball with a potential of being an ace to be counted on moving forward.  If the Pirates are able to establish Taillon, Glasnow, and Keller as the phenoms they can be, the Pirates rotation will be regarded similarly to how we talked about the Mets a few years ago.

2018 Prediction

4th in NL Central

The cupboard isn't bare, but they are definitely taking a giant intentional step back in 2018.  They still have some young emerging stars and a strong pitching staff, but they are looking at the top three in this division, realizing they can't compete with them, and re-tooling to fight another day.  Look for them to be a postseason factor again in 2020.

Fearless Prediction

Starling Marte will be traded this season.

Including team options, Marte is under contract through 2021 on a very club-friendly deal.  However, by the time the Pirates are looking to compete again in a couple years, Marte's contract will be ready to expire.  He is most valuable to them right now: an All Star player in his prime with club control that is ready to help a team now.  They could get a pretty large package back for him that could set them up moving forward.  It would also clear space for top prospect Austin Meadows to crack the big league lineup.

2017 Pre-Season Profile: Pittsburgh Pirates

#16

For the first time since 2012, the Pittsburgh Pirates were left out of the postseason party.  Will 2017 bring a return trip to October baseball?

My 2016 Predictions

2nd in NL Central, WILD CARD, lose in Wild Card Game

Starling Marte and Andrew McCutchen will switch positions by the end of 2016.

2016 Results

78-83, 3rd in NL Central

With a team as talented as this Pittsburgh Pirates team, I figured they would make a return trip to the playoffs.  Due to some struggles in their pitching staff, and an extremely strong top of the division, they came up short for the first time in three years.  Another reason for the slight decline for the Pirates was the decline of Andrew McCutchen.  For years, experts have said Andrew McCutchen was not the best centerfielder on his team.  After a true struggle defensively in 2016, my prediction came true.  It just came true later than I thought.  McCutchen is moving to right, Gregory Polanco is moving to left, and Starling Marte is taking his rightful place in center.

Additions / Subtractions

The Pirates made very few moves this offseason.  After trading Mark Melancon at the Deadline last year, and losing a couple veteran starters in free agency, the roster is pretty much set.  No free agency moves, no trades (despite a lot of talk about trading Andrew McCutchen).  They are counting on their farm system to fill any holes they may have had.

Most Important Hitter

Jung Ho Kang

Despite a broken leg that ended his 2015 season, Jung Ho Kang has had two very productive seasons in the big leagues.  However, he has yet to have a full season.  This season appears to be no different as the Pirates' third baseman is stuck in Korea having trouble obtaining a work visa after an offseason arrest in his homeland.  The Pirates are hoping he makes it back by Opening Day, but there is no guarantee he plays in the big leagues at all this season.  He has been a borderline All Star the last two seasons.  They need him in the lineup to compete.

Most Important Pitcher

Gerrit Cole

The former first overall pick in the draft had a season that lived up to expectations in 2015 as he made the All Star Team and finished 4th in the Cy Young voting.  However, 2016 was disappointing as his ERA was over a run higher than the year before.  Cole needs to get back to the elite level he showed in 2015.  If he doesn't, the Pirates have no chance.

Player to Watch

Austin Meadows

The Pirates have a trio of prospects that are ready to burst on the scene in 2017.  Tyler Glasnow is projected to start the season in the rotation, and Josh Bell is slated to be the Opening Day first baseman.  However, the most intriguing prospect of the group is outfielder Austin Meadows.  He is a top ten prospect in all of baseball and about ready to become a star.  The problem is he is blocked by a trio of All Star caliber outfielders in Polanco, Marte, and McCutchen.  This was one of the reasons McCutchen was almost traded; they wanted to make room for Meadows.  It will be interesting to see how this plays out throughout the season.

2017 Prediction

3rd in NL Central

Starting with the Tigers at #17, every team from here on out will be competing for a playoff spot in September.  The Pirates will be coming up a little short though.  They will improve from their performance in 2016, but there are just way too many teams better than them.  With their mixture of established talent and bright future starts, they will be fun to watch throughout the season though.

Fearless Prediction

Andrew McCutchen will be traded by the end of the year.

Andrew McCutchen has been the face of the franchise since his debut.  However, with his declining numbers, the Pirates not making the playoffs, and the fact that he is the elder statesmen in the outfield, it makes sense if he moves on.  Like I said, they have a can't-miss phenom in Austin Meadows waiting for a spot.  One of two things will happen this year.  Either McCutchen gets traded for more prospects or Meadows gets traded for a star to make the playoff push.  It looks more likely that McCutchen gets traded though.