2021 Pre-Season Profile: Tampa Bay Rays

 #11

The Tampa Bay Rays made it all the way to the World Series in 2020 before losing to the Dodgers.  Can this roster see the same level of success in a full season in 2021?

2020 Predictions

#2 - 1st in AL East, lose in World Series

MIH - Austin Meadows

MIP - Blake Snell

PTW - Brendan McKay

2020 Results

#2 - 40-20, 1st in AL East, lost in World Series

I was pretty excited when I realized I successfully predicted the World Series teams and result.  The Rays rode their insane bullpen and deep roster built for playing the matchup game all the way to the Fall Classic before losing to the Dodger juggernaut.  It really felt like the Rays started to run out of steam at the wrong time.  So, they pulled their ace starter while he was dealing.  Sorry, pulling Snell in that last game still makes no sense.

Additions / Subtractions

Speaking of Blake Snell, one of the biggest storylines of the offseason was the Rays unloading Blake Snell to the Padres for a haul of prospects.  Charlie Morton also signed elsewhere, leaving a couple holes in the rotation.  They filled these holes, at least to start the season, with Chris Archer, Rich Hill, and Collin McHugh.  As far as the lineup is concerned, outside of letting Hunter Renfroe sign elsewhere, they are entering 2021 with the same lineup they ended 2020 with.

Most Important Hitter

Randy Arozarena

Randy Arozarena is technically still a prospect with rookie status in tact, however I don't know if more is expected from a "rookie" this season than what is expected of him.  That's because no one has ever had a run like Arozarena had in the 2020 postseason.  Acquired before the 2020 season in a prospect-for-prospect trade, Arozarena shocked everyone with the production he gave this lineup down the stretch.  He became the heart of their lineup, and at times in the playoffs, he was the only bat actually producing runs.  Now everyone is wondering if he is the player that set postseason records or the player that entered 2020 outside the Rays' top 10 prospects.  Not only that, but the Rays need him to be the more productive version to stabilize their lineup and give them consistent middle-of-the-order production.  A lot to ask of a guy with only 23 regular season games at the big league level.

Most Important Pitcher

Tyler Glasnow

With the trade of Blake Snell, the Rays' starting rotation has a massive hole at the top of the rotation.  The pitcher most likely to fill that hole is Tyler Glasnow.  Glasnow has proven so far in his young career that he can be an ace of a staff and dominate any lineup.  With a team that relies so heavily on their bullpen like the Rays do, having one starter that can be leaned on to go deep in games is important.  Glasnow can be that pitcher in 2021.  The Rays must feel some level of vindication boasting a rotation this season with Tyler Glasnow and Chris Archer, two players that were traded for each other a few years ago.

Prospect to Watch

Wander Franco

The Rays not only are the defending American League champions, but they also have the best farm system in all of baseball.  Boasting 8 players in the Top 100 Prospects, six of them look like they could make a big league impact this season.  Included in that list are Randy Arozarena, Luis Patino (the centerpiece of the Blake Snell trade), and potential two-way player Brendan McKay.  These three, along with middle infielder Vidal Brujan and lefty Shane McClanahan, would all carry with them a high level of excitement on their own.  However, with the possible exception of Arozarena, they are all overshadowed by the top prospect in all of baseball.  Wander Franco has a chance to hit the big leagues this year, and be an instant star at age 20.  This switch-hitting shortstop is projected to be the best hitting prospect around, able to hit for average and power.  If he gets the opportunity to make his debut in 2021, everyone better be watching.

2021 Prediction

3rd in AL East

This is the last team I have missing the playoffs.  The Rays definitely do things differently, constantly building up their farm system so they can keep trading their stars before they get paid for more prospects.  It seems to be a system they have perfected.  Their lack of reliance on their starting pitchers and total reliance on their killer bullpen is also unique and trend-setting.  However, the end of their postseason run in 2020 showed that their bullpen can run out of steam.  Also, deep playoff runs means less recovery time for the next season, and even though the season was short, their pitching staff has a chance to struggle with the short turnaround and the full 162 being an option.  Add to all this the strength at the top of this division and what they have to compete with, I have the Rays just missing the playoffs.  I hope I'm wrong because they are always fascinating to watch at the least.

Fearless Prediction

Randy Arozarena will hit less home runs in 2021 than he did in 2020.

Randy Arozarena's hot start in 2020 led to 8 home runs in 23 regular season games and 10 more home runs in the playoffs, setting records.  Now everyone sees him coming.  I think Arozarena is due for a sophomore slump in 2021.  Look for the power numbers to decline significantly and maybe even warrant a trip down to AAA at some point in the season.  Then again, I could be wrong, and he could be a top 10 player in all of baseball.

2018 Pre-Season Profile: Pittsburgh Pirates

#24

The Pittsburgh Pirates have taken steps backward in the last few seasons.  Will some recent roster moves lead to more success in 2018?

2017 Predictions

3rd in NL Central

Andrew McCutchen will be traded by the end of the year.

2017 Results

75-87, 4th in NL Central

The Pirates' season seemed to be derailed before it even started when Starling Marte was suspended for 80 games with a PED positive test.  Also, Jung Ho Kang, their Most Important Hitter pre-season last year, never played a game for the Pirates as he couldn't secure a work visa to return to the US.  This all started them down a path where they never really competed all season.  As for my Fearless Prediction, I may have just been a little premature.

Additions / Subtractions

The Pirates appeared to try and reset their roster a little bit this offseason, trading away two of their most productive players from their postseason runs.  Andrew McCutchen is now a Giant, and Gerrit Cole has joined the World Champion Astros.  The only experienced players that have been added to the roster are outfielder Corey Dickerson and pitchers Joe Musgrove and Kyle Crick.  These are not really names that are going to excite fans considering what left.

Most Important Hitter

Starling Marte

This is a big year for Starling Marte for many reasons.  First, he is the biggest established star left on the Pirates' roster.  There are some emerging stars like Gregory Polanco or Josh Bell, but Marte is still the best player.  Also, Marte has some redeeming to do after last season and his suspension.  He needs to prove his production was for real and that he can be counted on and trusted moving forward.  Lastly, the Pirates organization is probably looking at Marte this year and deciding whether he will be a centerpiece of the franchise moving forward or will he be another player to be moved for more prospects.  With all these factors in mind, it is a huge year for Starling Marte.

Most Important Pitcher

Jameson Taillon

Finally, the Pirates were able to see a full season from Jameson Taillon in the big leagues in 2017!  A top prospect derailed by a myriad of health issues, Taillon finally got to start what everyone still hopes will be a promising career.  In 2017, Taillon was an average starting pitcher.  In 2018, he will be asked to start progressing into the star everyone hopes he will be.  The Pirates are banking on their new look team to be anchored by a bright young pitching staff.  Taillon, along with Tyler Glasnow, will be asked to be the anchors of that.

Prospect to Watch

Mitch Keller

The next arm to join the young Pirates rotation will be 21 year old Mitch Keller.  A former 2nd round pick from 2014, Keller is the 15th best prospect in all of baseball with a potential of being an ace to be counted on moving forward.  If the Pirates are able to establish Taillon, Glasnow, and Keller as the phenoms they can be, the Pirates rotation will be regarded similarly to how we talked about the Mets a few years ago.

2018 Prediction

4th in NL Central

The cupboard isn't bare, but they are definitely taking a giant intentional step back in 2018.  They still have some young emerging stars and a strong pitching staff, but they are looking at the top three in this division, realizing they can't compete with them, and re-tooling to fight another day.  Look for them to be a postseason factor again in 2020.

Fearless Prediction

Starling Marte will be traded this season.

Including team options, Marte is under contract through 2021 on a very club-friendly deal.  However, by the time the Pirates are looking to compete again in a couple years, Marte's contract will be ready to expire.  He is most valuable to them right now: an All Star player in his prime with club control that is ready to help a team now.  They could get a pretty large package back for him that could set them up moving forward.  It would also clear space for top prospect Austin Meadows to crack the big league lineup.

2017 Pre-Season Profile: Pittsburgh Pirates

#16

For the first time since 2012, the Pittsburgh Pirates were left out of the postseason party.  Will 2017 bring a return trip to October baseball?

My 2016 Predictions

2nd in NL Central, WILD CARD, lose in Wild Card Game

Starling Marte and Andrew McCutchen will switch positions by the end of 2016.

2016 Results

78-83, 3rd in NL Central

With a team as talented as this Pittsburgh Pirates team, I figured they would make a return trip to the playoffs.  Due to some struggles in their pitching staff, and an extremely strong top of the division, they came up short for the first time in three years.  Another reason for the slight decline for the Pirates was the decline of Andrew McCutchen.  For years, experts have said Andrew McCutchen was not the best centerfielder on his team.  After a true struggle defensively in 2016, my prediction came true.  It just came true later than I thought.  McCutchen is moving to right, Gregory Polanco is moving to left, and Starling Marte is taking his rightful place in center.

Additions / Subtractions

The Pirates made very few moves this offseason.  After trading Mark Melancon at the Deadline last year, and losing a couple veteran starters in free agency, the roster is pretty much set.  No free agency moves, no trades (despite a lot of talk about trading Andrew McCutchen).  They are counting on their farm system to fill any holes they may have had.

Most Important Hitter

Jung Ho Kang

Despite a broken leg that ended his 2015 season, Jung Ho Kang has had two very productive seasons in the big leagues.  However, he has yet to have a full season.  This season appears to be no different as the Pirates' third baseman is stuck in Korea having trouble obtaining a work visa after an offseason arrest in his homeland.  The Pirates are hoping he makes it back by Opening Day, but there is no guarantee he plays in the big leagues at all this season.  He has been a borderline All Star the last two seasons.  They need him in the lineup to compete.

Most Important Pitcher

Gerrit Cole

The former first overall pick in the draft had a season that lived up to expectations in 2015 as he made the All Star Team and finished 4th in the Cy Young voting.  However, 2016 was disappointing as his ERA was over a run higher than the year before.  Cole needs to get back to the elite level he showed in 2015.  If he doesn't, the Pirates have no chance.

Player to Watch

Austin Meadows

The Pirates have a trio of prospects that are ready to burst on the scene in 2017.  Tyler Glasnow is projected to start the season in the rotation, and Josh Bell is slated to be the Opening Day first baseman.  However, the most intriguing prospect of the group is outfielder Austin Meadows.  He is a top ten prospect in all of baseball and about ready to become a star.  The problem is he is blocked by a trio of All Star caliber outfielders in Polanco, Marte, and McCutchen.  This was one of the reasons McCutchen was almost traded; they wanted to make room for Meadows.  It will be interesting to see how this plays out throughout the season.

2017 Prediction

3rd in NL Central

Starting with the Tigers at #17, every team from here on out will be competing for a playoff spot in September.  The Pirates will be coming up a little short though.  They will improve from their performance in 2016, but there are just way too many teams better than them.  With their mixture of established talent and bright future starts, they will be fun to watch throughout the season though.

Fearless Prediction

Andrew McCutchen will be traded by the end of the year.

Andrew McCutchen has been the face of the franchise since his debut.  However, with his declining numbers, the Pirates not making the playoffs, and the fact that he is the elder statesmen in the outfield, it makes sense if he moves on.  Like I said, they have a can't-miss phenom in Austin Meadows waiting for a spot.  One of two things will happen this year.  Either McCutchen gets traded for more prospects or Meadows gets traded for a star to make the playoff push.  It looks more likely that McCutchen gets traded though.

2016 Pre-Season Profile: Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pittsburgh Pirates have had three straight 2nd place finishes in the NL Central, which have led to three straight appearances in the NL Wild Card Game.  Will 2016 break the trend?

Last Season

My 2015 Prediction: 1st in NL Central, lose in NLDS

2015 Result: 98-64, 2nd in NL Central, lost in Wild Card Game

Only one team finished with a better record than the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2015.  Unfortunately, that team was in their division.  Then, for the second year in a row, they ran into the hottest pitcher in the league and were completely shut down in their one game playoff.  It was quite an anticlimactic ending for a team that almost won 100 games.

2016 Additions / Subtractions

For the first time in awhile, the Pirates actually made some changes to their core group this offseason.  Neil Walker was traded to the Mets for Jon Niese, and Pedro Alvarez wasn't re-signed in favor of a John Jaso / Mike Morse platoon at first.  Ryan Vogelsong was also brought in to add some rotation depth, and just yesterday, David Freese was signed to provide another infield option while Jung Ho Kang gets healthy.  It wasn't a lot of moves, but for a team that usually does nothing, it was an active offseason.

Most Important Hitter

Andrew McCutchen

I rarely say that a team's best player is their most important player going into the season.  However, Andrew McCutchen truly fits the bill in this case.  Cutch had a "down" year in 2015 as he started to be overshadowed by his outfield mates Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco.  If the Pirates want to get over the hump and make a serious postseason run, McCutchen has to get back to his MVP-caliber form and show why the Marte-McCutchen-Polanco outfield is the best in baseball.

Most Important Pitcher

Jon Niese

Jon Niese successfully improved his overall value with a very strong run out of the Mets' bullpen through the 2015 postseason.  That led to the Mets selling high and the Pirates buying high on Niese.  Now the Pirates need him to show that he can carry over that momentum into the starting rotation in 2016.  If he struggles, the second-guessing will dominate the conversation.

Player to Watch

Tyler Glasnow

With question marks around Niese and Vogelsong at the back end of the rotation, the future might be now for some Pirate prospects in 2016.  Tyler Glasnow is the brightest of those future stars.  He almost made an appearance down the stretch last season like Steven Matz did for the Mets, but instead they chose to move him along a little slower.  Look for him to make his big league debut as soon as someone has to miss a start.  Also, don't be surprised to also see the injury-plagued former top prospect Jameson Taillon reach the big leagues at some point too.

2016 Prediction

2nd in NL Central, WILD CARD, lose in Wild Card Game

New season, same result for the Pirates.  There is just something about this team that seems to keep them from getting over the hump.  It seems the Pirates are really good at being really good while the other contenders around them are finding ways to be great.  They will have another outstanding season, but they will come up short once again.

Fearless Prediction

Starling Marte and Andrew McCutchen will switch positions by the end of 2016.

Many experts have been claiming for several years now that the Pirates' best centerfielder has been player leftfield.  With McCutchen's injuries and slight decline, I could see the Pirates try this theory by moving Marte to center to relieve some wear and tear on the former MVP.  It doesn't matter how they line up, they are still the best outfield in baseball.