2019 Pre-Season Profile: Pittsburgh Pirates

#23

The Pittsburgh Pirates had another productive season in 2018.  With the NL Central becoming the most competitive division in baseball, will the Pirates be able to repeat the success that has defined their team in recent years?

2018 Predictions

4th in NL Central

Starling Marte will be traded this season.

2018 Results

82-79, 4th in NL Central

The Pirates had a competitive season in 2018, finishing above .500 for the first time since 2015, competing for a Wild Card spot well into September.  This was quite an accomplishment considering their ace, Gerrit Cole, and their face, Andrew McCutchen, both moved on before the season.  However, the depth of the NL Central left the Pirates in 4th place.  Instead of trying to gather more talent and trading a stud like Marte, they went the other direction and gave up prospects to bring in a new ace in Chris Archer.

Additions / Subtractions

The biggest addition for the Pirates in 2019 was the trade for Archer at the Deadline in 2018.  Speaking strictly offseason, the Pirates were extremely quiet.  Jordy Mercer and Josh Harrison, mainstays in the middle infield for most of the last decade, both signed with the Detroit Tigers in free agency.  Harrison was replaced at 2nd internally with Adam Frazier.  Mercer will be replaced by Erik Gonzalez, a 27 year old shortstop acquired in a low level trade this offseason from the Indians.  The only other significant move the Pirates made was bringing in Lonnie Chisenhall as a utility guy.

Most Important Hitter

Josh Bell

Josh Bell was an elite prospect when he made his debut for the Pirates in 2016.  Now he is entering his third full season at the age of 26.  After a solid 2017, Bell took a step back in 2018 with only 12 home runs and 62 RBI's.  Bell is starting to graduate into veteran territory this season, and he needs to get back on track to being the top slugger his talent shows he can be.  If that happens, he will be an important anchor in the middle of the Pirates order.

Most Important Pitcher

Chris Archer

The Pirates paid a high price for Chris Archer last season even though he was in the middle of his worst season as a professional, finishing with an ERA+ below average for the first time in his career.  The Pirates were banking on the idea that this was an anomaly and not a trend.  Archer has the stuff to be one of the best pitchers in baseball.  However, he is also entering his age 30 season.  He needs to show he is still elite and not on the decline.  If he bounces back, this was a great trade.  If not, this might go down as one of the worst trades in franchise history considering what they gave up to get him.

Prospect to Watch

Ke'Bryan Hayes

The Pirates have a decent farm system, stocked with even more pitching help to make their rotation elite.  However, the best hitter in their farm system is third baseman Ke'Bryan Hayes, the son of former big leaguer Charlie Hayes.  This 22 year old hit right around .300 in AA last season and has a chance to make an impact down the stretch in 2019 at a position that is not a strength for the Pirates right now.  Either way, he is their third baseman of the future.

2019 Prediction

5th in NL Central

I feel there are tiers in baseball this year.  There are about 8 to 10 teams that are elite and about 7 teams that won't be that competitive (the ones already profiled).  The rest of the league is in the middle, fighting for that last playoff spot or two.  I see the Pirates as that dividing line.  They will probably hover right around .500 again and flirt with a playoff berth again.  However, this division will be so competitive, .500 might put them in the cellar.  The Reds are one of the most improved teams in the league, and the three teams above them are not going anywhere.  It may be another successful disappointment in Pittsburgh in 2019.

Fearless Prediction

This will be Clint Hurdle's last season managing the Pirates.

Clint Hurdle is about as good of a baseball guy as you will find.  However, something feels like there is a clock ticking in Pittsburgh with him.  If they do indeed finish in the cellar this season, regardless of record, I can see a scenario where he either is fired or chooses to walk away from the team.  He has definitely brought a new level of success to Pittsburgh, but they have never been able to get over the hump to being elite.  Maybe it would be time for a fresh perspective.

2018 Pre-Season Profile: Pittsburgh Pirates

#24

The Pittsburgh Pirates have taken steps backward in the last few seasons.  Will some recent roster moves lead to more success in 2018?

2017 Predictions

3rd in NL Central

Andrew McCutchen will be traded by the end of the year.

2017 Results

75-87, 4th in NL Central

The Pirates' season seemed to be derailed before it even started when Starling Marte was suspended for 80 games with a PED positive test.  Also, Jung Ho Kang, their Most Important Hitter pre-season last year, never played a game for the Pirates as he couldn't secure a work visa to return to the US.  This all started them down a path where they never really competed all season.  As for my Fearless Prediction, I may have just been a little premature.

Additions / Subtractions

The Pirates appeared to try and reset their roster a little bit this offseason, trading away two of their most productive players from their postseason runs.  Andrew McCutchen is now a Giant, and Gerrit Cole has joined the World Champion Astros.  The only experienced players that have been added to the roster are outfielder Corey Dickerson and pitchers Joe Musgrove and Kyle Crick.  These are not really names that are going to excite fans considering what left.

Most Important Hitter

Starling Marte

This is a big year for Starling Marte for many reasons.  First, he is the biggest established star left on the Pirates' roster.  There are some emerging stars like Gregory Polanco or Josh Bell, but Marte is still the best player.  Also, Marte has some redeeming to do after last season and his suspension.  He needs to prove his production was for real and that he can be counted on and trusted moving forward.  Lastly, the Pirates organization is probably looking at Marte this year and deciding whether he will be a centerpiece of the franchise moving forward or will he be another player to be moved for more prospects.  With all these factors in mind, it is a huge year for Starling Marte.

Most Important Pitcher

Jameson Taillon

Finally, the Pirates were able to see a full season from Jameson Taillon in the big leagues in 2017!  A top prospect derailed by a myriad of health issues, Taillon finally got to start what everyone still hopes will be a promising career.  In 2017, Taillon was an average starting pitcher.  In 2018, he will be asked to start progressing into the star everyone hopes he will be.  The Pirates are banking on their new look team to be anchored by a bright young pitching staff.  Taillon, along with Tyler Glasnow, will be asked to be the anchors of that.

Prospect to Watch

Mitch Keller

The next arm to join the young Pirates rotation will be 21 year old Mitch Keller.  A former 2nd round pick from 2014, Keller is the 15th best prospect in all of baseball with a potential of being an ace to be counted on moving forward.  If the Pirates are able to establish Taillon, Glasnow, and Keller as the phenoms they can be, the Pirates rotation will be regarded similarly to how we talked about the Mets a few years ago.

2018 Prediction

4th in NL Central

The cupboard isn't bare, but they are definitely taking a giant intentional step back in 2018.  They still have some young emerging stars and a strong pitching staff, but they are looking at the top three in this division, realizing they can't compete with them, and re-tooling to fight another day.  Look for them to be a postseason factor again in 2020.

Fearless Prediction

Starling Marte will be traded this season.

Including team options, Marte is under contract through 2021 on a very club-friendly deal.  However, by the time the Pirates are looking to compete again in a couple years, Marte's contract will be ready to expire.  He is most valuable to them right now: an All Star player in his prime with club control that is ready to help a team now.  They could get a pretty large package back for him that could set them up moving forward.  It would also clear space for top prospect Austin Meadows to crack the big league lineup.

2016 Pre-Season Profile: Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pittsburgh Pirates have had three straight 2nd place finishes in the NL Central, which have led to three straight appearances in the NL Wild Card Game.  Will 2016 break the trend?

Last Season

My 2015 Prediction: 1st in NL Central, lose in NLDS

2015 Result: 98-64, 2nd in NL Central, lost in Wild Card Game

Only one team finished with a better record than the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2015.  Unfortunately, that team was in their division.  Then, for the second year in a row, they ran into the hottest pitcher in the league and were completely shut down in their one game playoff.  It was quite an anticlimactic ending for a team that almost won 100 games.

2016 Additions / Subtractions

For the first time in awhile, the Pirates actually made some changes to their core group this offseason.  Neil Walker was traded to the Mets for Jon Niese, and Pedro Alvarez wasn't re-signed in favor of a John Jaso / Mike Morse platoon at first.  Ryan Vogelsong was also brought in to add some rotation depth, and just yesterday, David Freese was signed to provide another infield option while Jung Ho Kang gets healthy.  It wasn't a lot of moves, but for a team that usually does nothing, it was an active offseason.

Most Important Hitter

Andrew McCutchen

I rarely say that a team's best player is their most important player going into the season.  However, Andrew McCutchen truly fits the bill in this case.  Cutch had a "down" year in 2015 as he started to be overshadowed by his outfield mates Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco.  If the Pirates want to get over the hump and make a serious postseason run, McCutchen has to get back to his MVP-caliber form and show why the Marte-McCutchen-Polanco outfield is the best in baseball.

Most Important Pitcher

Jon Niese

Jon Niese successfully improved his overall value with a very strong run out of the Mets' bullpen through the 2015 postseason.  That led to the Mets selling high and the Pirates buying high on Niese.  Now the Pirates need him to show that he can carry over that momentum into the starting rotation in 2016.  If he struggles, the second-guessing will dominate the conversation.

Player to Watch

Tyler Glasnow

With question marks around Niese and Vogelsong at the back end of the rotation, the future might be now for some Pirate prospects in 2016.  Tyler Glasnow is the brightest of those future stars.  He almost made an appearance down the stretch last season like Steven Matz did for the Mets, but instead they chose to move him along a little slower.  Look for him to make his big league debut as soon as someone has to miss a start.  Also, don't be surprised to also see the injury-plagued former top prospect Jameson Taillon reach the big leagues at some point too.

2016 Prediction

2nd in NL Central, WILD CARD, lose in Wild Card Game

New season, same result for the Pirates.  There is just something about this team that seems to keep them from getting over the hump.  It seems the Pirates are really good at being really good while the other contenders around them are finding ways to be great.  They will have another outstanding season, but they will come up short once again.

Fearless Prediction

Starling Marte and Andrew McCutchen will switch positions by the end of 2016.

Many experts have been claiming for several years now that the Pirates' best centerfielder has been player leftfield.  With McCutchen's injuries and slight decline, I could see the Pirates try this theory by moving Marte to center to relieve some wear and tear on the former MVP.  It doesn't matter how they line up, they are still the best outfield in baseball.