Reactions to the Oscar Nominations: 2017

It was a fairly uncontroversial nominations announcement this morning. The one thing that stuck out to me, however, is how horrible the pre-produced segment was to unveil the invitees. On paper, it should have worked. Seeing past nominees talk about what it was like to hear about their nomination and what the Oscars mean to them should have been interesting, but it was jumbled and really random when the disembodied voice announced categories in no particular order. Also, being on the west coast, it was at 5AM, so it didn’t air during Good Morning America. It aired during local news, so they had no idea what to do. They talked over the segment because it looked like a commercial of sorts and really ruined it. Stick to the press conference, AMPAS. Stop trying to be hip. Traditional is not always bad. Tradition is what sets your awards show apart. Don’t mess with that. However, it was still much better than the Seth MacFarlane announcement four years ago. Anyway, check out my gut reactions to this year’s nominations below!

BEST PICTURE
Arrival

Fences

Hacksaw Ridge

Hell or High Water

Hidden Figures

La La Land

Lion

Manchester by the Sea

Moonlight

Predicted: 9 for 9

Reactions: This was the easiest group of BP nominees to predict since I have been in the business. This seemed very predetermined. It was clear that these were going to be the top 9. It was just a matter if 8 or 9 would get nominated. Hell or High Water and Hidden Figures were right on the edge, but they both had a wide enough fanbase within the industry to get in. This award has already been decided. La La Land, leading the way with a record-tying 14 nominations, cannot be beaten.

Preliminary prediction: La La Land

BEST DIRECTOR

Damien Chazelle – La La Land

Mel Gibson – Hacksaw Ridge

Barry Jenkins – Moonlight

Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester by the Sea

Denis Villeneuve - Arrival

Predicted: 5 for 5

Reactions: It was almost expected that Garth Davis would sneak in there after the DGA nomination, but Hacksaw Ridge was way too traditional for the Academy to overlook. This is Gibson’s first nomination since he won this award in 1995. The other four nominees have never appeared in this category. Villeneuve has finally hit the big time. His rise to A-list director has been as brief and seamless as anyone I can ever remember.

Preliminary prediction: Damien Chazelle

BEST ACTOR

Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea

Andrew Garfield – Hacksaw Ridge

Ryan Gosling – La La Land

Viggo Mortensen – Captain Fantastic

Denzel Washington – Fences

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I went with a shocker and predicted that Gosling would get left out in favor of Joel Edgerton, but that obviously didn’t happen. This is a pretty good group. Mortensen’s movie was garbage, but he did give a really good performance. Garfield was arguably nominated for the wrong movie, but supposedly nobody connected with Silence in Hollywood. This is Affleck vs Washington.

Preliminary prediction: Casey Affleck

BEST ACTRESS

Isabelle Huppert – Elle

Ruth Negga – Loving

Natalie Portman – Jackie

Emma Stone – La La Land

Meryl Streep – Florence Foster Jenkins

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: While looking over this category in the past few weeks, I thought that under normal circumstances that Amy Adams could be vulnerable. I didn’t predict her to get snubbed, but Negga seemed like a nominee. I just couldn’t see whose place she would take. Huppert’s Golden Globe win cemented her status as a shoo-in nominee. Streep is always in. Portman and Stone are the frontrunners. Amy Adams is one of the Academy favorites who is nominated as often as she appears in serious films. She also had Nocturnal Animals, which should have strengthened her case. This is a confusing snub. I’m stunned, especially since it was the second most nominated film and a Best Picture nominee. This would be like if Sandra Bullock was snubbed for Gravity.

Preliminary prediction: Emma Stone

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Mahershala Ali – Moonlight

Jeff Bridges – Hell or High Water

Lucas Hedges – Manchester by the Sea

Dev Patel – Lion

Michael Shannon – Nocturnal Animals

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: The Golden Globe winner was snubbed for the first time since 1975, when that actor’s co-star ended up winning the Oscar. Sound familiar? Shannon can’t win this award, but it is an interesting trend, if you can call it that. I missed Shannon and Hedges in favor of Aaron Taylor-Johnson and Hugh Grant. Grant’s snub is a bit of a head-scratcher. His performance was pure Oscar stuff, and he has never been nominated before. He got all of the important precursor citations. Maybe category fraud did him in, seeing as he was nominated for Best Actor at the GG. Hedges is a bit of a surprise as well. His movie is obviously beloved by actors, and he did give a really nice performance, but for him to be singled out in this category is quite an achievement. Aaron Taylor-Johnson’s snub clears the way for Ali to win this without any real competition.

Preliminary prediction: Mahershala Ali

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Viola Davis – Fences

Naomie Harris – Moonlight

Nicole Kidman – Lion

Octavia Spencer – Hidden Figures

Michelle Williams – Manchester by the Sea

Predicted: 5 for 5

Reactions: This was the most pre-ordained set of nominees since 2006 Best Actress. Nobody else really had a realistic chance of getting in.

Preliminary prediction: Viola Davis

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Hell or High Water – Taylor Sheridan

La La Land – Damien Chazelle

The Lobster – Yorgos Lanthimos, Efthymis Filippou

Manchester by the Sea – Kenneth Lonergan

20^th Century Women – Mike Mills

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: Mike Mills making it in was a bit of a surprise. I had him ranked 8^th. Captain Fantastic had everything going for it, and its quirky indie script was one of the most consistently singled-out elements of the film. I went with that instead. I love that I was right about The Lobster. It is such an unusual and beautiful movie. This will be a close call. La La Land won the GG in an upset. On paper, Lonergan should have this, but Hell or High Water is just sitting there waiting for an upset. Sheridan is the best young screenwriter in the business.

Preliminary prediction: Manchester by the Sea

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Arrival – Eric Heisserer

Fences – August Wilson

Hidden Figures – Allison Schroeder, Theodore Melfi

Lion – Luke Davies

Moonlight – Barry Jenkins, Tarell McCraney

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I decided to ride the wave of the Golden Globes and BAFTA by predicting Nocturnal Animals to get the fifth spot. Hidden Figures was left off my list by just a hair. No real surprises here. Moonlight being shifted to this category makes it a real battle between that and the previous frontrunner Arrival.

Preliminary prediction: Moonlight

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Arrival

La La Land

Lion

Moonlight

Silence

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I had Hacksaw Ridge securing a spot over Lion. It is not an egregious omission, but it just shows how much the Academy really loved Garth Davis’s film. Worthy of noting: this is the only nomination that Martin Scorsese’s masterpiece Silence received. It is a bizarre case in the industry and one that I will never fully understand. Its cinematography was too good to ignore, though.

Preliminary prediction: La La Land

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Arrival

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Hail, Caesar!

La La Land

Passengers

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: The real surprise of the nominations was the love for the critically panned Passengers, which will also appear late in the nominations. I missed out on that and Hail Caesar! in favor of Café Society and Jackie. La La Land is going to win this, and it deserves to.

Preliminary prediction: La La Land

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Allied

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Florence Foster Jenkins

Jackie

La La Land

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: I missed out on Fantastic Beasts and Allied. I predicted The Handmaiden (shut out) and the exquisite costumes of Love & Friendship. I must say, if there is one of these artistic categories that La La Land has a chance to lose, it is this one.

Preliminary prediction: Jackie

BEST SOUND MIXING

Arrival

Hacksaw Ridge

La La Land

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

13 Hours

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I missed the surprise inclusion of 13 Hours in favor of the more traditional choice of Sully. This seems about right. Traditionally, this category is won by action movies or musicals. We have the best of both worlds, and this could be an interesting race. Usually, this category goes hand-in-hand with Sound Effects Editing, but a musical cannot win that category.

Preliminary prediction: Hacksaw Ridge

BEST FILM EDITING

Arrival

Hacksaw Ridge

Hell or High Water

La La Land

Moonlight

Predicted: 5 for 5

Reactions: This is exactly how it should be. Worthy of noting is that Manchester by the Sea was left off, which is usually the nail in the coffin for its Best Picture chances. That was until Birdman bucked the trend, and of course if there is a criticism of Lonergan’s film it’s that it is too long. This should be a walk for La La Land.

Preliminary prediction: La La Land

BEST SOUND EFFECTS EDITING

Arrival

Deepwater Horizon

Hacksaw Ridge

La La Land

Sully

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: I missed Sully and La La Land in favor of Rogue One and The Jungle Book. La La Land is officially the first musical to ever be nominated in this category, and I cannot figure out how it did it. It makes absolutely no sense.

Preliminary prediction: Hacksaw Ridge

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Deepwater Horizon

Doctor Strange

The Jungle Book

Kubo and the Two Strings

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: I missed Deepwater Horizon and Kubo. I predicted Fantastic Beasts and Arrival to get in. This is really weird. Arrival was an absolute lock to win this category, but somehow it gets left off. It was nominated in all of the important categories, and yet its two shoo-ins Best Actress and Best Visual Effects are snubbed. In favor of an animated movie? Wow. I was not even aware until recently that it was even eligible. I don’t know what to think of this category…

Preliminary prediction: The Jungle Book

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

A Man Called Ove

Star Trek Beyond

Suicide Squad

Predicted: 1 for 3

Reactions: This is a complete miss on the part of the Academy. They supposedly went with strictly obvious makeup work and ignored hairstyling. I predicted Deadpool, which I thought would win, and Florence Foster Jenkins. I missed Suicide Squad (of course) and Star Trek. This is always a little quirky and they have no problems giving the award to bad movies.

Preliminary prediction: Suicide Squad

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

“Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” – La La Land

“Can’t Stop the Feeling” – Trolls

“City of Stars” – La La Land

“The Empty Chair” – Jim: The James Foley Story

“How Far I’ll Go” – Moana

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: Justin Timberlake, Oscar nominee. Nice. I missed “The Empty Chair” and Trolls in favor of the songs from Gold and Hidden Figures.

Preliminary prediction: “City of Stars”

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Jackie

La La Land

Lion

Moonlight

Passengers

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: I missed Passengers, as expected, and Moonlight in favor of The BFG and Nocturnal Animals. La La Land is winning this.

Preliminary prediction: La La Land

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Fire at Sea

I Am Not Your Negro

Life, Animated

O.J.: Made in America

13^th

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: I had The Eagle Huntress and Weiner in over Life, Animated and Fire at Sea. This is a great category and a good reflection of America right now. It is really relevant, and it is good to see O.J. breaking through. The Documentary voters seem to be ahead of the game in blurring the lines on what makes a movie “Oscar-worthy”. They were the first to really embrace streaming, and now we have a TV miniseries nominated. I love it.

Preliminary prediction: O.J.: Made in America

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

A Man Called Ove

The Salesman

Tanna

Toni Erdmann

Land of Mine

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: I had Paradise and My Life as a Zucchini in over The Salesman and Tanna, which I have never heard of. In most people’s prognostications, Toni Erdmann is the frontrunner, but it doesn’t feel like an Oscar winner.

Preliminary prediction: Land of Mine

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Kubo and the Two Strings

Moana

My Life as a Zucchini

The Red Turtle

Zootopia

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I had The Little Prince in over My Life as a Zucchini. I hate my brain seeing trends. I mixed up My Life as a Zucchini’s categories just because that is how they handled Waltz with Bashir in 2008. Whatever. This category has been over for months.

Preliminary prediction: Zootopia

Overall predictions: 80/107; 74.77% (75.47% in 2016)

Without the last 5 categories: 64/82; 78.05% (79.01% in 2016)

On the Big 8 categories: 38/44; 86.36% (83.72% in 2016)

It’s amazing how similar my predictions are every single year. You would think that I would get better over time, but the lack of predictability is something that I have always loved about the Oscars.

10 COOLEST FIRST TIME NOMINEES

1. Andrew Garfield

2. Justin Timberlake

3. Mahershala Ali

4. Denis Villeneuve

5. Isabelle Huppert

6. Ruth Negga

7. Taylor Sheridan

8. Barry Jenkins

9. Naomie Harris

10. Yorgos Lanthimos

10  WORST SNUBS

1. Amy Adams for Best Actress

2. Arrival for Best Visual Effects

3. Silence in all relevant categories

4. Nocturnal Animals for Best Adapted Screenplay

5. O.J.: Made in America for Best Film Editing

6. Florence Foster Jenkins for Best Makeup/Hairstyling

7. Aaron Taylor-Johnson for Best Supporting Actor

8. Love & Friendship for Best Costume Design

9. Finding Dory for Best Animated Feature

10. Hugh Grant for Best Supporting Actor

What are your thoughts on the nominations? Whose snub was most egregious? Stay tuned for our 9^th Annual Oscar Challenge!

2017 Oscar Predictions: Final (Major Categories)

We are finally closing in on the Oscar nominations announcement! They come out January 24^th, and while a lot of nominations have basically been locked in, there is still room for quite a few surprises. Expect La La Land to approach the all time record for nominations (14), and keep an eye out for the late-surging Nocturnal Animals and the ultimate wildcard: Producers Guild nominee for Best Picture Deadpool. Check out my final nominations predictions, as well as my ARTS AND TECHS predictions.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Predicted Five

1. Moonlight – Barry Jenkins, Tarrel McCraney – The surprise category change for the Moonlight screenplay makes its win much easier. It now does not have to compete with its two main Best Picture competitors and can coast to a victory.

2. Arrival – Eric Heisserer – The biggest loser in that category shift was Eric Heisserer. A nomination here will be very cool anyway, but he was in line to win, as it had taken several Adapted Screenplay awards thus far.

3. Nocturnal Animals – Tom Ford – Ford’s screenplay was always the film’s best shot at a nomination, but now with massive love from BAFTA and the key Golden Globes noms, this is an absolute lock.

4. Lion – Luke Davies – The movie seems to have widespread love, which will make the screenplay nomination very secure for the Australian screenwriter.

5. Fences – August Wilson – This would be much more of a sure thing, but the Academy has tons of evidence in its lack of appreciation of play adaptation scripts. It is superbly written, however, and that may overwhelm the voters.

Others in contention

6. Hidden Figures – Theodore Melfi, Allison Schroeder – It seems to be treated like The Help, which wound up missing out in this category, but if it snags one of the spots, I would not be at all surprised. It has herds of fans in the industry.

7. Hacksaw Ridge – Andrew Knight, Robert Schenkkan – The screenplay is not necessarily top notch, but if it is in for a huge day on nominations morning, it might very well grab one of the spots in this category.

8. Loving – Jeff Nichols – Loving’s category shift actually hurt it more than helped it. It seems like the type of script that would have a much better chance at getting a nom in the more creative category.

9. Silence – Jay Cocks, Martin Scorsese – I don’t really know what to do with Silence. It kicked off the season with a win in this category from the National Board of Review, but its lack of publicity and distribution has been its undoing. I am going to avoid predicting it for much, even though the Academy has had some situations like this is in the past. Selma, anyone?

10. Elle – David Birke – The movie is the biggest foreign film of the year, yet it couldn’t even make the shortlist for Best Foreign Language Film. I still feel like the love for Huppert could potentially bring along another nomination in a category, and this would be its best shot.

11. Deadpool – Rhett Reese, Paul Wernick – It got the PGA, WGA, and GG nominations. It is a wildcard. It is this year’s The Hangover or Bridesmaids. That basically means it has a 50-50 shot at showing up in this category.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

The Predicted Five

1. Manchester by the Sea – Kenneth Lonergan – The road is clear for Lonergan to take this category now that Moonlight is Adapted. It really does deserve to win, but there are a few films behind it with a huge amount of backing.

2. La La Land – Damien Chazelle – The Golden Globe win for Chazelle was key. Historically, musicals do not fare well in the screenplay categories. Maybe the HFPA love can vault Chazelle to an absolute sweep at the Oscars.

3. Hell or High Water – Taylor Sheridan – Sheridan somehow missed out in this category a year ago for Sicario. However, this movie has a much wider fanbase and is a virtual lock to receive a nom at the very least.

4. Captain Fantastic – Matt Ross – This movie has appeared in all of the important places at the major awards. For these types of light indie dramedies, screenplay is its easiest nomination to pick up.

5. The Lobster – Efthimis Filippou, Yorgos Lanthimos – It would be a little off the wall, but Original Screenplay is usually open to the most original ideas in film. I love The Lobster’s chances to take spot #5 in this category.

Others in contention

6. I, Daniel Blake – Paul Laverty – The BAFTA resurrected the Cannes winner by showering it with love in all of the right categories. Watch out for this movie. It could show up in several of the major categories.

7. Jackie – Noah Oppenheim – The buzz for Jackie has faded in the past couple weeks, particularly Portman being upset at the GG. It is not a typical biopic, but that could help it in this category if the film is not completely forgotten.

8. 20^th Century Women – Mike Mills – Mills was near a nomination for Beginners, and while this movie’s buzz has cooled throughout the season as well, this is one of its best chances at showing up at the Oscars.

9. Paterson – Jim Jarmusch – Jarmusch has actually never gotten an Oscar nomination, but I love the under-the-radar potential of Paterson. I could see this surprising with 2-3 nominations if enough voters see it in time.

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Viola Davis – Fences – Davis is going to win the Oscar that she so richly deserves. She is in the wrong category, but that only helps her case for taking home the gold.

2. Michelle Williams – Manchester by the Sea – Williams would have the Oscar in her fourth try if not for Davis. She would be a worthy and obvious winner otherwise.

3. Naomi Harris – Moonlight – Harris stole her scenes in Moonlight. Her nomination is a lock.

4. Nicole Kidman – Lion – Kidman is in a movie in the running for Best Picture? Nomination!

5. Octavia Spencer – Hidden Figures – This seems like a filler nomination for a movie that people really liked. Every actor needs their validation nomination, and this is obviously Spencer’s.

Others in contention

6. Greta Gerwig – 20^th Century Women – The only other actress with any chance at showing up at the Oscars is Gerwig. She was the other nominee at the Critics Choice. She deserves a nomination at some point, but it is going to be very difficult to break into that group with her lack of publicity.

Annual Tommy Lee Jones – In the Valley of Elah Shocker Nomination – Amy Adams – Nocturnal Animals

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Mahershala Ali – Moonlight – Even though he lost the Golden Globe in a shocker, he is still the odds-on favorite for the Oscar. His role is brief, but it is a heartbreaker.

2. Jeff Bridges – Hell or High Water – There is no chance he wins, and there is no chance he doesn’t get nominated.

3. Dev Patel – Lion – He seemingly has a large fanbase. This is his second run at a nom in this category. He got all of the precursors to assure his invite this time.

4. Aaron Taylor-Johnson – Nocturnal Animals – His Golden Globe win was strengthened by his BAFTA nomination. He had been trailing Michael Shannon all season long, but that one big win vaults him into almost assured Oscar nom status.

5. Hugh Grant – Florence Foster Jenkins – He has had the perfect route to get his first Oscar nom. Being mentioned in the Best Actor category at the Globes only supported his case.

Others in contention

6. Lucas Hedges – Manchester by the Sea – The SAG nom was big for Hedges. He was terrific in that movie, and if the Oscar voters love the film as much as the Actors Guild, then he could easily slide into the top five.

7. Ben Foster – Hell or High Water – He had the better role than Bridges, but he still has never gotten a major nomination. Can he pull a Mark Wahlberg in The Departed?

8. Michael Shannon – Nocturnal Animals – The only Best Supporting Actor winner at the GG to not get an Oscar nom was Richard Benjamin in The Sunshine Boys in 1975. His costar George Burns (not nominated by HFPA) ended up winning the Oscar. Obscure and very miniscule chance that repeats, but it is worth mentioning.

Annual Tommy Lee Jones – In the Valley of Elah Shocker Nomination – Issei Ogata – Silence

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Natalie Portman – Jackie – Portman’s only thing going against her is that she just won this decade. The voters in every circuit obviously adore La La Land and Emma Stone, so maybe they will want to spread the wealth.

2. Emma Stone – La La Land – She is waiting in the weeds for her chance to take the award. Nothing would surprise me at this point with her movie.

3. Meryl Streep – Florence Foster Jenkins – She has received all of the key nominations to extend her unreachable Oscar nom record.

4. Amy Adams – Arrival – She has a couple films that she is award worthy in. She is nominated every time she is remotely Oscar caliber.

5. Isabelle Huppert – Elle – Her Golden Globe win pretty much secured her spot at the Oscars. It would be unprecedented for the winner of the Drama Actress award to be snubbed here.

Others in contention

6. Ruth Negga – Loving – Under ordinary circumstances, she would be an easy nominee. It appears that she is going to have to wait for her first nomination, unless the Academy loved her movie more than the other voting bodies.

7. Emily Blunt – The Girl on the Train – The BAFTA and SAG combo is difficult to pass up, but her movie was so poorly received that I believe the Academy will have an easier time snubbing her…again.

8. Annette Bening – 20^th Century Women – Bening has had several chances at Oscar wins. 4/5 of those will have been thwarted by Natalie Portman or Hilary Swank.

9. Viola Davis – Fences – This would be a shock and really throw a wrench into both of her categories. The same thing happened when Kate Winslet won her Oscar back in 2008 after her surprise category shift. I think she would become the immediate frontrunner if mentioned here instead of Supporting Actress.

10. Jessica Chastain – Miss Sloane – She is a beloved actress, and her movie performed well enough. This would be a bit of a bizarre choice given the names and roles above her, but it would not shock me all that much.

Annual Tommy Lee Jones – In the Valley of Elah Shocker Nomination – Rebecca Hall – Christine

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

The Predicted Five

1. Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea – There is absolutely no chance that he doesn’t come away with the win. It is one of the best performances in years.

2. Denzel Washington – Fences – Washington would have his third Oscar in the bag if not for Affleck. It is rare for an actor to win the Oscar for the same role they won the Tony, but he made a serious run at it.

3. Andrew Garfield – Hacksaw Ridge – He has two films for which he could get this nomination, but Hacksaw is the safer choice. It is old fashioned Oscar bait, and he is terrific in it.

4. Viggo Mortensen – Captain Fantastic – The SAG Ensemble Cast nomination all but secured his nomination. Obviously the actors adored his movie.

5. Joel Edgerton – Loving – I feel that if Loving appears anywhere, it will be here. It would be a surprise given who gets left out, but it just feels right.

Others in contention

6. Ryan Gosling – La La Land – His performance was fairly average. If not for the GG’s obsession with musicals, it would be easy to overlook the fact that he learned how to dance, sing, and play jazz piano for the role.

7. Andrew Garfield – Silence – His performance is extraordinary, but I just can’t bring myself to predict it for anything at this point.

8. Adam Driver – Paterson – This would be a very surprising and refreshing nomination, since it appears that he really does not do a whole lot of traditional Oscar begging in the film.

9. Jake Gyllenhaal – Nocturnal Animals – The BAFTA nomination shot him into the race. He has been kicking around Oscar caliber work for years now, but his only nom is still somehow his supporting turn in 2005.

Annual Tommy Lee Jones – In the Valley of Elah Shocker Nomination – Chris Pine – Hell or High Water

BEST DIRECTOR

The Predicted Five

1. Damien Chazelle – La La Land – I can’t see him being overtaken by anyone. His vision is hard to ignore.

2. Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester by the Sea – Lonergan is an easy first time nominee in this category. His movie still has an outside shot at winning it all.

3. Barry Jenkins – Moonlight – Jenkins got the shaft from BAFTA, but that will not happen from the Academy.

4. Mel Gibson – Hacksaw Ridge – The only thing that makes me hesitate putting him in there is the fact that people simply don’t like him. The film seems too Oscary to pass up a former winner, though.

5. Denis Villeneuve – Arrival – He is one of the hottest directors in the world right now, and the trend of awarding sci-fi recently makes his nomination almost guaranteed.

Others in contention

6. Martin Scorsese – Silence – If enough voters see it, then he could very easily receive a lone nomination here, much like his first religious passion project The Last Temptation of Christ.

7. Denzel Washington – Fences – The BAFTA snub hurt his chances. He also basically directed a play onscreen, but he pulled out the best performances of every actor’s career in his efforts.

8. Tom Ford – Nocturnal Animals – The BAFTA and GG noms make this a real possibility. I feel like it is this year’s A History of Violence, which received a few nominations but missed out on the big ones.

9. Garth Davis – Lion – It all depends on how much the Academy really loved Lion. Davis is an unknown in the industry, so it would be a surprise if he breaks through.

10. David Mackenzie – Hell or High Water – He is also an unknown in Hollywood, but his movie has drones of fans. If he gets a nom, then watch out for serious upsets on Oscar night.

11. Theodore Melfi – Hidden Figures – The movie is an underdog, but it has the right kind of marketing and timing for it to take a few extra nominations.

BEST PICTURE

The Predicted Ten (I predict 8 will get nominated)

1. La La Land (Damien Chazelle) – Setting the Golden Globes record basically cemented this as our eventual Oscar winner.

2. Manchester by the Sea (Kenneth Lonergan) – The preferential ballot voting could help this film since it is the least divisive of the major contenders.

3. Moonlight (Barry Jenkins) – I cannot actually see a scenario where it wins, but it has surprised all awards season.

4. Hacksaw Ridge (Mel Gibson) – Maybe 15 years ago, this would have been our obvious frontrunner. Now, it is just another war movie also-ran.

5. Arrival (Denis Villeneuve) – It has had quite a ride to this point. I will be shocked if it isn’t mentioned here on Oscar nomination morning.

6. Fences (Denzel Washington) – Even though it is much more of an acting piece than a traditional Oscar nominated movie, it will likely take the SAG Ensemble. Denzel is also still beloved by all voters.

7. Hidden Figures (Theodore Melfi) – Getting a nomination might be a little difficult because 5% of voters will need to think that this is the best movie of the year, but it keeps strengthening its case with every key nomination and nice box office.

8. Lion (Garth Davis) – This film has coasted thus far without really having been all that much of a threat at any circuit. That must mean something.

9. Hell or High Water (David Mackenzie) – Right on the edge is the neo-western bank robbery movie that has defied all expectations thus far. Even though I think it is reasonably overrated, I’m rooting for it because I love what it would represent.

10. Captain Fantastic (Matt Ross) – The SAG Ensemble nomination really vaulted its chances at showing up here. There are a host of indie films in the running, but this would be a throwback to a decade ago if it gets in.

Others in contention

11. Silence (Martin Scorsese) – I expected BAFTA to overlook Silence, but I would not put it past the AMPAS to throw it all of its deserved love at the last minute.

12. Loving (Jeff Nichols) – Its buzz has quieted in recent weeks, but given the current narrative around Oscar voting, this would be a nice touch.

13. I, Daniel Blake (Ken Loach) – The BAFTA love is telling. Even though it has been ignored all of awards season, the British film that BAFTA anoints almost always shows up in a big way at the Oscars. Don’t count it out.

14. Deadpool (Tim Miller) – I don’t even know what to say. It got a Producers Guild nomination for Best Picture. It is right on the outside looking in. How many #1 votes can it get? I fear that it can gather quite a few.

That’s the major categories! Continue reading with my ARTISTIC ANDTECHNICAL CATEGORIES predictions.