Year in Review: Terry's Top Ten Films of 2016

It is that time of year once again.  Finally, I have found enough time to watch enough films to compile a top ten list from the year before.  My rule is I need to at least make it through the year's Best Picture nominees before I can say my top ten list is complete.

2016 was an interesting year in film.  The Oscars are no longer as white as everyone thought they were, with three Best Picture nominees featuring African-American leads as well as Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress going to African-Americans.  There were films that were throwbacks to past glory years of cinema (La La Land, Hell or High Water) while you had other films addressing very current and modern topics (Moonlight, Lion).  Comic book movies made bank at the box office, while Star Wars and Harry Potter resurfaced once again.  No matter which genre you were looking at, there was quality to be found if you looked hard enough.  This led to a compilation of films at the top of my list that are as varied as they are excellent.

Honorable Mentions

Finding Dory

(dir. by Andrew Stanton & Angus MacLane)

Swiss Army Man

(dir. by Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert)

Zootopia

(dir. by Jared Bush, Byron Howard, & Rich Moore)

Hell or High Water

(dir. by David Mackenzie)

10.  Hidden Figures

(dir. by Theodore Melfi)

The first film on my list is a film that deals with a subject I love.  The Space Race is one of my favorite parts of history, and Hidden Figures discusses an otherwise untold story of a group of African American women who were essential to the work NASA did in getting men in space and on the moon.  The film was made to appeal to a family audience and so was made a little more vanilla than it could have been, but the impact is still there.  Taraji P. Henson, Octavia Spencer, and Janelle Monae have inspired performances as the three leaders of this movement.  It is a great combination of all the aspects of American history during that time: Space Race and Civil Rights movement.  I loved this film and all it stood for.

9.  Nocturnal Animals

(dir. by Tom Ford)

This fascinating film is one of those experiences that gets stuck in your head in a way you can't shake.  Amy Adams plays an art gallery owner that seems to be distracted and haunted by several things.  She is haunted by her past, which soon gets combined with being haunted by a novel sent to her by her ex-husband.  As the parallel stories of present day, flashbacks, and narrative from the novel are told, you begin to lose track of what is actually real, but I think that's the point.  All the stories seem to complement each other in this twisted thriller unravels into a fascinating piece of art worthy of Tom Ford's reputation.  Michael Shannon and Aaron Taylor-Johnson also provide award-worthy performances in supporting roles as a killer and the man out to find justice.

8.  Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

(dir. by David Yates)

I became a late fan of the Harry Potter series, but a very quick fan.  When I heard they were starting up a spin-off series, I was about as skeptical as I was when I first heard about Harry Potter.  Spin-offs almost never go well.  However, I was amazed at what they developed.  The Harry Potter universe is as rich and fascinating as any cinematic universe that has ever been developed.  Newt Scamander's trunk of fantastic beasts just continues to explore more aspects of this universe.  What I loved most about this film is it has everything you love about Harry Potter, but it is all adults.  This is not the little kid movie that started this whole magical ride.  This is a film that starts a new era of new stories and new characters for us all to fall in love with.  I hope they never stop expanding on what this universe can be.

7.  Lion

(dir. by Garth Davis)

Dev Patel became a breakout star in 2008 with Slumdog Millionaire playing the grown-up version of a boy that had a rough childhood in India.  I loved that movie.  Last year, Dev Petel received his first Oscar nomination for playing the grown-up version of a boy that had a rough childhood in India.  I loved this movie too!  There are definitely some similarities between Slumdog Millionaire and Lion, but they are different enough to make the two experiences vastly different.  Lion is a true story about Saroo, a young boy who finds himself separated from his family and thousands of miles from home.  Eventually, he finds himself in an orphanage and gets adopted by an Australian family.  As an adult, Saroo decides to use Google Earth to try and find his way back home.  This film breaks your heart and spends the whole movie putting it back together again.  You know how it is going to end, but it doesn't make the payoff any less powerful.  Dev Petel validates that he is a quality actor that we need to see on screen much more often than we do.

6.  Silence

(dir. by Martin Scorsese)

Two Portuguese Jesuit priests travel to Japan to look for their mentor in the 1600's.  Sounds like a terrible movie that would never get made.  Oh, Martin Scorsese made it?  Nevermind, this will be a masterpiece.  And that is exactly what it is.  Scorsese is one of the greatest storytellers of our time as he brings to life this world we had no clue would be so fascinating.  Andrew Garfield and Adam Driver solidify their place with some of the best young actors working today.  Liam Neeson resurrects his career in a beautiful performance as a tortured priest.  However, this film does not get made without Scorsese.  There are few directors that draw the attention of the entire industry simply for making a film.  Scorsese is one of those directors, and Silence will go down as just another masterpiece in a career filled with them.

5.  La La Land

(dir. by Damien Chazelle)

By the time I saw La La Land, the hype had been built up to monumental levels.  I wish I had seen it without any expectations or knowing as much as I knew.  If that had happened, I am sure I would have loved it even more than I did.  This throwback to classic original movie musicals of the 50's and 60's touches a sentimental nerve in a similar way 2011's The Artist did.  Emma Stone and Ryan Gosling were perfect in their starring roles as the film dazzled through song and wonderful visual images.  It was probably the prettiest movie of the year, which is impressive considering there was a Scorsese film and a Tom Ford film.  It is one of those films that makes you happy from start to finish.  With our world where it is, having an escape like this is so needed from time to time.

4.  Deadpool

(dir. by Tim Miller)

From possibly the most innocent and feel-good movie of the year to a film that just punches you in the face.  Deadpool took advantage of the current craze of superhero movies and flipped it on its head to redefine the what the genre could be.  Ryan Reynolds is to Deadpool as Robert Downey, Jr. is to Iron Man.  He just is.  It is one of the most naturally played roles I have ever seen.  He is crass, self-deprecating, self-aware, and ridiculously entertaining.  It also redefined the genre in a similar way to Downey's first turn as Iron Man.  For someone who loves comic book movies to begin with, Deadpool is a deformed head and shoulders above the rest.

3.  Manchester by the Sea

(dir. by Kenneth Lonergan)

Like I said, this list has a wide variety of films.  With this installment, we have a film about grief, loss, and living with one's past.  Casey Affleck plays the lead, haunted by his past while trying to mourn his brother's death with his nephew.  I haven't seen many movies more real than this.  Every scene feels completely genuine as you forget you are watching actors and not people just living out their lives.  That is a testament to the performances by Affleck, Lucas Hedges, Michelle Williams, and Kyle Chandler.  It also shows the skill of Kenneth Lonergan, an accomplished screenwriter that picks his directed movies very carefully and sparingly (only his third directed film).  This film will have you crying one minute, laughing the next, and fascinated from start to finish.

2.  Arrival

(dir. by Denis Villeneuve)

This is a film that becomes an obsession much like the aliens become to Amy Adams.  In an era of big budget blockbusters, here you have a subtle and quiet sci-fi movie that could only be compared to the recent Christopher Nolan films.  Several spacecraft land on earth quietly and mysteriously.  The US military entrusts Louise Banks, a linguistics professor played by Adams, to find a way to communicate with the aliens and discover what they want.  The quiet intensity draws you in more and more every minute as it all builds to the ending that brings clarity to it all.  It is as shocking as it is quiet and understated.  I loved every minute of it and would have been perfectly content to name this my top film of the year.

1.  O.J.: Made in America

(dir. by Ezra Edelman)

To show just how much variety this year's top films have, my number one is an 8 hour documentary.  However, I rarely become so engrossed in something as I was in this twisted story that no one would believe unless it were true.  O.J.: Made in America tells of the meteoric rise and fall of football star and actor O.J. Simpson, including his very public trial for the murder of his wife.  However, it is so much more than just a story of one man.  It is the story of an entire race and an entire city.  Without knowing the whole story, you would never fully grasp everything that happened in this one man's life.  I watched this, like most did, as a miniseries that aired on ESPN.  It did get a limited cinematic release as one complete saga, which qualifies it as one film.  I somewhat feel like I'm cheating putting this as my top film of the year, but when it is considered as a complete 8 hour saga, nothing else even comes close to being as good as this.

A Year in Review: Adam's Top Ten Films of 2016

It's been a crazy start to 2017, one that inevitably delayed me from working on this list. But fear not, I'm finally ready to reveal my Top Ten of 2016!

Unlike previous years, I was more selective of the films I watched. This was a really good year to be a fan of film.  We will be talking about a lot of these films for years to come.  But there are always two side to every coin. Even though I was more selective, the bad films I watched made me question why I ever had a fragment of hope for them.  I'm talking about you, Independence Day 2!!

This year's trend was that the big blockbuster films were just good-to-average.  There were exceptions like Captain America: Civil War and Star Trek: Beyond.  Unfortunately, a lot of the bigger films were overhyped and/or disappointed me (X-men: Apocalypse, Deadpool, Ghostbusters, Batman v Superman, and Rouge One)

The smaller indie films made me more emotional than any other year in recent memory.  Fences, Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight, and La La Land were a few of the culprits that moved me to tears.

While we are on the subject of tears, let's take a brief moment and remember some of the actors and actresses we lost this last year:
Debbie Reynolds, Carrie Fisher, Alan Thicke, Florence Henderson, Gene Wilder, Kenny Baker, Garry Marshall, Anton Yelchin, Patty Duke, Garry Shandling, and Alan Rickman.

Now, lets move on to some awards:

Total films seen: 147
Thumbs up Percentage: 70% (up from 64% in 2015)

Actor of the Year:

Adam Driver

Film: Midnight Special, Paterson, Silence

T.V.: Girls

Video Games: Lego Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Actress of the Year:

Amy Adams

Films: Arrival, Nocturnal Animals, Batman v Superman

Best Actor: Casey Affleck - Manchester by the Sea, Chris Pine - Hell or High Water, Denzel Washington - Fences, Andrew Garfield - Silence, Adam Driver - Paterson

Best Actress: Amy Adams - Arrival, Viola Davis - Fences, Rebecca Hall - Christine, Emma Stone - La La Land, Ruth Negga - Loving 

Best Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali - Moonlight, Stephen Lang - Don't Breathe, Ben Foster - Hell or High Water, Shia LeBeouf - American Honey, Aaron Taylor-Johnson - Nocturnal Animals 

Best Supporting Actress: Michelle Williams - Manchester by the Sea, Naomie Harris - Moonlight, Jena Malone - The Neon Demon, Soo-an Kim - Train to Busan, Lupita Nyong'o - Queen of Katwe

Best Break-Out Performance: Ruth Negga - Loving, Auli'i Cravalho - Moana, Anya Taylor-Joy - The Witch, Angourie Rice - The Nice Guys, Noel Sethi - The Jungle Book

Best Director: Denis Villeneuve - Arrival, Martin Scorsese - Silence, Kenneth Lonergan - Manchester by the Sea, Ezra Edelman - O.J.: Made in America, Barry Jenkins - Moonlight

Best Original Screenplay: Manchester by the Sea, Hell or High Water, Swiss Army Man, The Nice Guys, La La Land

Best Adapted Screenplay: Moonlight, Arrival, The Neon Demon, Fences, Nocturnal Animals

Most Underrated Films: The Nice Guys, The Neon Demon, Hush, The Edge of Seventeen, Midnight Special 

Most Overrated Films: Deadpool, The Birth of a Nation, Florence Foster Jenkins, Ghostbusters, Rogue One

Biggest Surprise: Don't Breathe, The Invitation, Barbershop 3, Eddie the Eagle, Hello, My Name is Doris

Biggest Disappointment: X-men: Apocalypse, Batman v Superman

Best Sequel: 10 Cloverfield Lane

Best Laughs: The Nice Guys, The Bronze, The Edge of Seventeen, Popstar, Keanu

Best Scares: Don't Breathe, Hush, The Autopsy of Jane Doe, The Witch, The Conjuring 2, Lights Out

Bottom Five of the Year (from Bad to Awful): Boo! A Madea Halloween, Hardcore Henry, The Darkness, The Other Side of the Door, Independence Day 2

Movies that I haven't seen, that could make my list:  The Handmaiden, Shin Godzilla, Toni Erdmann, The Salesman, 20th Century Women, Neeja, Live by Night, Kicks, Captain Fantastic, Morris from America, A Monster Calls, The Monster, The Eyes of My Mother

 Honorable Mentions:

Fences

(Denzel Washington)

La La Land

(Damien Chazelle)

Nocturnal Animals

(Tom Ford)

Moana

(John Musker, Ron Clements, Don Hall, Chris Williams)

Christine

(Antonio Campos)

10.

Paterson

(Jim Jarmusch)

What a pleasant surprise this film was.  Adam Driver plays Paterson, a normal guy who lives in Paterson, NJ.  Patersons adheres to a simple routine: he drives his bus route, he writes poems in his secret notebook, he walks Marvin his dog, stops by the bar for exactly one drink; he then goes home to his wife Laura.  Golshiefteh Farahani plays his wife Laura, a woman who has new dreams for life daily and encourages Paterson's poetry. It's a simple observation of the ups and downs of everyday life.  This film doesn't have any action scenes and there isn't a bomb on his bus, but it does however celebrate the life of the normal man.  The chemistry that the two leads have - Driver and Farahani - shines and they are quite charming together.  It also is very funny and captures the little moments in our lives.  It's also worth noting that Rizwan Manji constantly made me laugh each time he was on screen.

9.

Hell or High Water

(David Mackenzie)

From the first trailer I watched I was hooked.  We follow as a divorced father and his ex-con brother resort to robbing banks to save their family farm.  This is one of the few films I have ever re-watched immediately after my first viewing.  It's an indie film, but feels a lot bigger than it actually is.  I love how real the characters were.  They are relatable, and we're able to put ourselves in their shoes and care for them.  Jeff Bridges, Gil Birmingham, Ben Foster, and Chris Pine all stepped up their games and delivered great performances.  Chris Pine gave the best performance of his career and I'll remember it for years to come.  Even though I'm a fan of Jeff Bridges, I would have loved to see Ben Foster nominated instead.  I also suspect writer Taylor Sheridan is going to have an amazing career,considering he recieved an Oscar nomination for this film and he wrote Sicario as well.

8.

Moonlight

(Barry Jenkins)

Arguably, the most important film that came out last year.  Moonlight, tells the story of Chiron at three different stages in his life, when he is a young boy, a young man in high school, and when he is a grown man.  We witness the struggles of Chiron as he try's to find his place in the world and battle with who he is.  Barry Jenkins, follows up, Medicine for Melancholy, with another extraordinary film.  Jenkins was able to get amazing performances out of his actors, with the standouts being Mahershala Ali and Naomie Harris.  This film isn't easy to watch but it's worth it.  I have seen this film a few times now and it gets better and better and I seem to cry with each viewing.  The only reason it's not higher is that the third act wasn't the strongest as the previous two.

7.

The Neon Demon

(Nicholas Winding Refn)

 Nicholas Winding Refn has made one of the weirdest and arguably the most disturbing films of this year.  It's about a young up-and coming model who gets tangled in a web of behavior and a lifestyle that doesn't reflect her character at all.  Jealousy and greed saturate her contemporaries in the industry.  It is so bizarre and really hard to describe with any detail.  I have watched this several times and with each viewing I got something different out of it.  The one thing for sure, the cinematography, costumes, makeup, score, and acting are some of the best of the year.  Elle Fanning and Jena Malone prove that they are amazing actresses that need to be in more stuff.  The ending will leave you speechless and make your stomach turn.

6.

Don't Breathe 

(Fede Alvares)

&

Hush

(Mike Flanagan)

I hate ties as much as the next guy but there was no possible way I could split these two films up.  For starters, they both are home invasion films that have characters that are without certain senses: I.e Don't Breathe - has a blind ex military type man. Hush - has a mute and deaf female writer.  Watching both of these films with the lights off made my senses more heightened and me nervous for what was about to happen next.  Now any other year you wouldn't see a horror film even close to my top ten list but 2016 was special for the horror genre.  These two films were even more special because they were scary but had characters that we're believable and vulnerable and limited the horror cliques that I hate.  Both films cast were top notch as well.  Stephen Lang from Don't Breath and Kate Siegel from Hush showed us that horror films can have great acting in there films and become the exception not the rule.  I strongly recommend these films, they will make you feel uneasy, scared, and put you on the edge of your seat.

5.

Train to Busan

(Sang-ho Yeon)

It's funny the places you hear about films.  Everyday when I drive to work I listen to NPR, and one day they were talking about Korea's first zombie film.  So when I finally watched it, I was surprised by how awesome and intense it is.  This films follows several passengers as they travel from Seoul to Busan while trying to survive a deadly zombie virus outbreak.  I enjoyed this film so much - my heart was beating non stop.  But it isn't just a zombie film.  It has character you both come to believe in and despise as well.  This would be a very fun character study on how the world handles tragedy and horrible situations.  Aside from character development, the technical aspects are also well done.  The effects, sound, makeup, and editing are some of my favorites of the year.  Fun little side note: this movie was my number one for most of the year until recently.  If you don't mind subtitles and want to see a very fun, entertaining, and suspenseful film, check this out.

4.

O.J.: Made in America

(Ezra Edelman)

You know a documentary has to be great to make my top ten list.  This is the first documentary to crack my list since my number one film of 2005, Earthlings.  Originally this was a TV documentary series, but I'm so glad that it's being considered a film by the academy.  It is a real, detailed look at the rise and fall of O.J. Simpson, but also covers what was happening with the LAPD and in the country at that time.  It is very interesting and frustrating to watch.  Even with a total  run time close to nine hours, you want to know more right away.  I knew very little about O.J. going in and after watching this I felt very upset and disgusted by the man he was.  This film also sheds light on issues that are as relevant today as they ever were.  To quote my friend and fellow film critic, Todd Plucknett: "This isa film about race, the justice system, Los Angeles, celebrity, and most of all - America."

3.

Silence

(Martin Scorsese)

So, one of the main reason this list was delayed was I wanted to watch the next Scorsese film.  Scorsese is my favorite director of all time.  The Departed, Taxi Driver, and Goodfellas are some of my favorite films of all time.  Silence, in time, could join the ranks of the greatest Scorsese films.  This film follows two Jesuit priests and their journey through Japan to find their mentor and friend.  It takes place in 17th century Japan, where the simple acknowledgement of being a Christian resulted in torture and the ultimate price: death.  Ultimately, this film is about true faith and being a martyr for what you believe in.  Even with a long run time it never feels as long as it actually is.  Some of the imagery on screen is hard to watch, so be prepared.  It is criminal that this film was almost enitely snubbed at the Oscars outside of cinematography.

  

2.

Arrival

(Denis Villeneuve)

Denis Villeneuve has finally started becoming a household name.  He is quickly moving up my favorite directors with each film I see.  Arrival, is his third film in the last four years to make my top ten list; the others being Sicario (2015), and Prisoners (2013).  What I enjoy about this film is that we are in a time of alien/science fiction films having a lot of explosions and action, but Villeneuve scales everything back to make a more human story.  Another thing he does well is that he isn't afraid to make strong female characters in his films.  Don't be fooled - Arrival does have aliens, but this film is really about communication and humanity.  It's beautifully filmed and the score is amazing.  Amy Adams gives one of my favorite performances of the year and her lack of nomination is a glaring Oscar snub.  Even with eight nominations at this years Oscars, I feel Arrival, was snubbed for visual effects, score (Passengers and Lion don't even come close), and Amy Adams.  This film will leave you with questions, so multiple viewings are a must.  I have seen it twice so far and I'm still in awe of everything I witness on screen.  

1.

Manchester by the Sea

(Kenneth Lonergan)

There was no film experience of 2016 quite like this one.  Manchester by the Sea is an emotional roller coaster that will be hard to shake well after the credits rolls.  Casey Affleck plays an apartment handyman who receives custody of his nephew after his brother passes away.  We've seen this premise in a lot of other films before, but as the story moves along and the layers of Affleck's character are peeled back to reveal a grief like no other.  Casey Affleck gave us his best performance as well as the best of the year.  He and fellow costar, Michelle Williams, broke my heart as I watched the relationships and pain reveal themselves.  I put myself in his shoes and I never want to feel the pain he felt.  Manchester by the Sea is not just a film - it's the closest experience to actual life that might have ever been put on screen.  It will make you laugh, cry, but most important of all - it will make you appreciate the little things in life and not take them for granted.  I recently just rewatched this and I walked away liking it even more, it truly is a work of cinema mastery.  I feel that Arrival and Manchester by the Sea will forever be locked in a back and fourth death match for my number one film of this year.  

Well that's my list!!  Did I surprise you?  What did I leave off?  Let me know your top ten and your opinions on mine!

Thank you again

ADAM

Reactions to the Oscar Nominations: 2017

It was a fairly uncontroversial nominations announcement this morning. The one thing that stuck out to me, however, is how horrible the pre-produced segment was to unveil the invitees. On paper, it should have worked. Seeing past nominees talk about what it was like to hear about their nomination and what the Oscars mean to them should have been interesting, but it was jumbled and really random when the disembodied voice announced categories in no particular order. Also, being on the west coast, it was at 5AM, so it didn’t air during Good Morning America. It aired during local news, so they had no idea what to do. They talked over the segment because it looked like a commercial of sorts and really ruined it. Stick to the press conference, AMPAS. Stop trying to be hip. Traditional is not always bad. Tradition is what sets your awards show apart. Don’t mess with that. However, it was still much better than the Seth MacFarlane announcement four years ago. Anyway, check out my gut reactions to this year’s nominations below!

BEST PICTURE
Arrival

Fences

Hacksaw Ridge

Hell or High Water

Hidden Figures

La La Land

Lion

Manchester by the Sea

Moonlight

Predicted: 9 for 9

Reactions: This was the easiest group of BP nominees to predict since I have been in the business. This seemed very predetermined. It was clear that these were going to be the top 9. It was just a matter if 8 or 9 would get nominated. Hell or High Water and Hidden Figures were right on the edge, but they both had a wide enough fanbase within the industry to get in. This award has already been decided. La La Land, leading the way with a record-tying 14 nominations, cannot be beaten.

Preliminary prediction: La La Land

BEST DIRECTOR

Damien Chazelle – La La Land

Mel Gibson – Hacksaw Ridge

Barry Jenkins – Moonlight

Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester by the Sea

Denis Villeneuve - Arrival

Predicted: 5 for 5

Reactions: It was almost expected that Garth Davis would sneak in there after the DGA nomination, but Hacksaw Ridge was way too traditional for the Academy to overlook. This is Gibson’s first nomination since he won this award in 1995. The other four nominees have never appeared in this category. Villeneuve has finally hit the big time. His rise to A-list director has been as brief and seamless as anyone I can ever remember.

Preliminary prediction: Damien Chazelle

BEST ACTOR

Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea

Andrew Garfield – Hacksaw Ridge

Ryan Gosling – La La Land

Viggo Mortensen – Captain Fantastic

Denzel Washington – Fences

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I went with a shocker and predicted that Gosling would get left out in favor of Joel Edgerton, but that obviously didn’t happen. This is a pretty good group. Mortensen’s movie was garbage, but he did give a really good performance. Garfield was arguably nominated for the wrong movie, but supposedly nobody connected with Silence in Hollywood. This is Affleck vs Washington.

Preliminary prediction: Casey Affleck

BEST ACTRESS

Isabelle Huppert – Elle

Ruth Negga – Loving

Natalie Portman – Jackie

Emma Stone – La La Land

Meryl Streep – Florence Foster Jenkins

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: While looking over this category in the past few weeks, I thought that under normal circumstances that Amy Adams could be vulnerable. I didn’t predict her to get snubbed, but Negga seemed like a nominee. I just couldn’t see whose place she would take. Huppert’s Golden Globe win cemented her status as a shoo-in nominee. Streep is always in. Portman and Stone are the frontrunners. Amy Adams is one of the Academy favorites who is nominated as often as she appears in serious films. She also had Nocturnal Animals, which should have strengthened her case. This is a confusing snub. I’m stunned, especially since it was the second most nominated film and a Best Picture nominee. This would be like if Sandra Bullock was snubbed for Gravity.

Preliminary prediction: Emma Stone

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Mahershala Ali – Moonlight

Jeff Bridges – Hell or High Water

Lucas Hedges – Manchester by the Sea

Dev Patel – Lion

Michael Shannon – Nocturnal Animals

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: The Golden Globe winner was snubbed for the first time since 1975, when that actor’s co-star ended up winning the Oscar. Sound familiar? Shannon can’t win this award, but it is an interesting trend, if you can call it that. I missed Shannon and Hedges in favor of Aaron Taylor-Johnson and Hugh Grant. Grant’s snub is a bit of a head-scratcher. His performance was pure Oscar stuff, and he has never been nominated before. He got all of the important precursor citations. Maybe category fraud did him in, seeing as he was nominated for Best Actor at the GG. Hedges is a bit of a surprise as well. His movie is obviously beloved by actors, and he did give a really nice performance, but for him to be singled out in this category is quite an achievement. Aaron Taylor-Johnson’s snub clears the way for Ali to win this without any real competition.

Preliminary prediction: Mahershala Ali

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Viola Davis – Fences

Naomie Harris – Moonlight

Nicole Kidman – Lion

Octavia Spencer – Hidden Figures

Michelle Williams – Manchester by the Sea

Predicted: 5 for 5

Reactions: This was the most pre-ordained set of nominees since 2006 Best Actress. Nobody else really had a realistic chance of getting in.

Preliminary prediction: Viola Davis

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Hell or High Water – Taylor Sheridan

La La Land – Damien Chazelle

The Lobster – Yorgos Lanthimos, Efthymis Filippou

Manchester by the Sea – Kenneth Lonergan

20^th Century Women – Mike Mills

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: Mike Mills making it in was a bit of a surprise. I had him ranked 8^th. Captain Fantastic had everything going for it, and its quirky indie script was one of the most consistently singled-out elements of the film. I went with that instead. I love that I was right about The Lobster. It is such an unusual and beautiful movie. This will be a close call. La La Land won the GG in an upset. On paper, Lonergan should have this, but Hell or High Water is just sitting there waiting for an upset. Sheridan is the best young screenwriter in the business.

Preliminary prediction: Manchester by the Sea

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Arrival – Eric Heisserer

Fences – August Wilson

Hidden Figures – Allison Schroeder, Theodore Melfi

Lion – Luke Davies

Moonlight – Barry Jenkins, Tarell McCraney

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I decided to ride the wave of the Golden Globes and BAFTA by predicting Nocturnal Animals to get the fifth spot. Hidden Figures was left off my list by just a hair. No real surprises here. Moonlight being shifted to this category makes it a real battle between that and the previous frontrunner Arrival.

Preliminary prediction: Moonlight

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Arrival

La La Land

Lion

Moonlight

Silence

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I had Hacksaw Ridge securing a spot over Lion. It is not an egregious omission, but it just shows how much the Academy really loved Garth Davis’s film. Worthy of noting: this is the only nomination that Martin Scorsese’s masterpiece Silence received. It is a bizarre case in the industry and one that I will never fully understand. Its cinematography was too good to ignore, though.

Preliminary prediction: La La Land

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Arrival

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Hail, Caesar!

La La Land

Passengers

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: The real surprise of the nominations was the love for the critically panned Passengers, which will also appear late in the nominations. I missed out on that and Hail Caesar! in favor of Café Society and Jackie. La La Land is going to win this, and it deserves to.

Preliminary prediction: La La Land

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Allied

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Florence Foster Jenkins

Jackie

La La Land

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: I missed out on Fantastic Beasts and Allied. I predicted The Handmaiden (shut out) and the exquisite costumes of Love & Friendship. I must say, if there is one of these artistic categories that La La Land has a chance to lose, it is this one.

Preliminary prediction: Jackie

BEST SOUND MIXING

Arrival

Hacksaw Ridge

La La Land

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

13 Hours

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I missed the surprise inclusion of 13 Hours in favor of the more traditional choice of Sully. This seems about right. Traditionally, this category is won by action movies or musicals. We have the best of both worlds, and this could be an interesting race. Usually, this category goes hand-in-hand with Sound Effects Editing, but a musical cannot win that category.

Preliminary prediction: Hacksaw Ridge

BEST FILM EDITING

Arrival

Hacksaw Ridge

Hell or High Water

La La Land

Moonlight

Predicted: 5 for 5

Reactions: This is exactly how it should be. Worthy of noting is that Manchester by the Sea was left off, which is usually the nail in the coffin for its Best Picture chances. That was until Birdman bucked the trend, and of course if there is a criticism of Lonergan’s film it’s that it is too long. This should be a walk for La La Land.

Preliminary prediction: La La Land

BEST SOUND EFFECTS EDITING

Arrival

Deepwater Horizon

Hacksaw Ridge

La La Land

Sully

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: I missed Sully and La La Land in favor of Rogue One and The Jungle Book. La La Land is officially the first musical to ever be nominated in this category, and I cannot figure out how it did it. It makes absolutely no sense.

Preliminary prediction: Hacksaw Ridge

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Deepwater Horizon

Doctor Strange

The Jungle Book

Kubo and the Two Strings

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: I missed Deepwater Horizon and Kubo. I predicted Fantastic Beasts and Arrival to get in. This is really weird. Arrival was an absolute lock to win this category, but somehow it gets left off. It was nominated in all of the important categories, and yet its two shoo-ins Best Actress and Best Visual Effects are snubbed. In favor of an animated movie? Wow. I was not even aware until recently that it was even eligible. I don’t know what to think of this category…

Preliminary prediction: The Jungle Book

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

A Man Called Ove

Star Trek Beyond

Suicide Squad

Predicted: 1 for 3

Reactions: This is a complete miss on the part of the Academy. They supposedly went with strictly obvious makeup work and ignored hairstyling. I predicted Deadpool, which I thought would win, and Florence Foster Jenkins. I missed Suicide Squad (of course) and Star Trek. This is always a little quirky and they have no problems giving the award to bad movies.

Preliminary prediction: Suicide Squad

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

“Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” – La La Land

“Can’t Stop the Feeling” – Trolls

“City of Stars” – La La Land

“The Empty Chair” – Jim: The James Foley Story

“How Far I’ll Go” – Moana

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: Justin Timberlake, Oscar nominee. Nice. I missed “The Empty Chair” and Trolls in favor of the songs from Gold and Hidden Figures.

Preliminary prediction: “City of Stars”

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Jackie

La La Land

Lion

Moonlight

Passengers

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: I missed Passengers, as expected, and Moonlight in favor of The BFG and Nocturnal Animals. La La Land is winning this.

Preliminary prediction: La La Land

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Fire at Sea

I Am Not Your Negro

Life, Animated

O.J.: Made in America

13^th

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: I had The Eagle Huntress and Weiner in over Life, Animated and Fire at Sea. This is a great category and a good reflection of America right now. It is really relevant, and it is good to see O.J. breaking through. The Documentary voters seem to be ahead of the game in blurring the lines on what makes a movie “Oscar-worthy”. They were the first to really embrace streaming, and now we have a TV miniseries nominated. I love it.

Preliminary prediction: O.J.: Made in America

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

A Man Called Ove

The Salesman

Tanna

Toni Erdmann

Land of Mine

Predicted: 3 for 5

Reactions: I had Paradise and My Life as a Zucchini in over The Salesman and Tanna, which I have never heard of. In most people’s prognostications, Toni Erdmann is the frontrunner, but it doesn’t feel like an Oscar winner.

Preliminary prediction: Land of Mine

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Kubo and the Two Strings

Moana

My Life as a Zucchini

The Red Turtle

Zootopia

Predicted: 4 for 5

Reactions: I had The Little Prince in over My Life as a Zucchini. I hate my brain seeing trends. I mixed up My Life as a Zucchini’s categories just because that is how they handled Waltz with Bashir in 2008. Whatever. This category has been over for months.

Preliminary prediction: Zootopia

Overall predictions: 80/107; 74.77% (75.47% in 2016)

Without the last 5 categories: 64/82; 78.05% (79.01% in 2016)

On the Big 8 categories: 38/44; 86.36% (83.72% in 2016)

It’s amazing how similar my predictions are every single year. You would think that I would get better over time, but the lack of predictability is something that I have always loved about the Oscars.

10 COOLEST FIRST TIME NOMINEES

1. Andrew Garfield

2. Justin Timberlake

3. Mahershala Ali

4. Denis Villeneuve

5. Isabelle Huppert

6. Ruth Negga

7. Taylor Sheridan

8. Barry Jenkins

9. Naomie Harris

10. Yorgos Lanthimos

10  WORST SNUBS

1. Amy Adams for Best Actress

2. Arrival for Best Visual Effects

3. Silence in all relevant categories

4. Nocturnal Animals for Best Adapted Screenplay

5. O.J.: Made in America for Best Film Editing

6. Florence Foster Jenkins for Best Makeup/Hairstyling

7. Aaron Taylor-Johnson for Best Supporting Actor

8. Love & Friendship for Best Costume Design

9. Finding Dory for Best Animated Feature

10. Hugh Grant for Best Supporting Actor

What are your thoughts on the nominations? Whose snub was most egregious? Stay tuned for our 9^th Annual Oscar Challenge!