Season Preview and Schedule Breakdown: 2013 Seattle Seahawks

So, the schedule comes out for the upcoming NFL season, and the next day you get my season preview article. I simply cannot get enough. Football season is only about 4 months away. As far as my beloved Seahawks go, it is a vastly different scenario than in last year’s article, where I astonishingly predicted an 11-5 year, “probably either taking the NFC West or scoring the 5^th seed in the playoffs”, and potentially one or two playoff wins. I would say that is about as close as you can come in April pre-draft and assuming your starting quarterback is going to be Matt Flynn and not a third round rookie.

This season is shaping up quite well for the Hawks. We have a doable schedule, but by no means an easy one. Since we are the hottest team in Vegas, many people’s #1 Power Ranking, and a Super Bowl co-favorite, we got rewarded with four prime-time games. We are getting more recognition, which breeds more pressure for our still incredibly young roster of budding superstars. How will they handle it? Well, if our composed rookie QB Russell Wilson (you heard of him?) is any indication, then focus should not be a problem. Sophomore slumps happen, though. Either way, coming into a season looking at making the playoffs and coming in with a virtual “Super Bowl or bust” mentality is an incredibly different feeling.

Last year, we had a giant coming out party for the majority of our team. Essentially every key player is coming back, including our handful of Pro Bowlers and couple All Pros. Last year, we were never going o win it all. We needed that experience and heartbreak to really refocus and come into this year out for blood. We ended with a top 10 scoring offense, probably slightly skewed by our 50-17, 58-0, and 42-13 victories down the stretch. Averaging 33 points per game in the last 8 games was surprising, considering our ugly offense the first half of the year with the training wheels on Wilson. Add in the NFL’s top scoring defense, and our team is as complete as any team in recent memory. The time to win is now, no matter how young we still may be.

This off-season has been a crazy ride. I have never seen a Seattle team make the moves to add to an already close-to-finished product. Trading for Percy Harvin is amazing and exactly what the offense needed. We needed that big play guy, and now whatever formations we end up in, it will be a nightmare for the opposition. We ended up with Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril to boost our struggling pass rush (the reason we lost in the playoffs and our handful of one-possession losses in the regular season). We got Antoine Winfield to be our nickel corner to cover the slot. We traded Matt Flynn and picked up Brady Quinn, a consummate backup. You see what we are doing? We are fine-tuning our team. The time to win is now, and we know it. We made the moves to fill holes, which is why not having a first round pick is not a big deal. We are no longer building the house, we are painting and furnishing it. We have that luxury, since our stars are all on their rookie contracts, most of which are 3^rd or 5^th rounders making next to nothing. The next two years we have the freedom to sign these guys without killing our cap.

DRAFT

Coming into the draft, it is a much different feel as well. No first round pick is no problem, but we do have 10 picks overall. There is room to move up and get a few good value picks for depth, or we can just take all of them and see which ones become the next fifth round gems that John Schneider can find out of nowhere. Here is my draft breakdown:

 

Team needs (in order)

OLB (potential starter, though not a necessity)

RB (3^rd string)

OT (depth)

OG (depth)

DT (depth)

TE (backup)

QB (developmental)

2^nd Round Watchlist

Terron Armstead, OT, Arkansas-PB

Arthur Brown, LB, Kansas State

Jonathan Franklin, RB, UCLA

Jonathan Hankins, DT, Ohio State

John Jenkins, DT, Georgia

Kyle Long, OG, Oregon

Sio Moore, OLB, UConn

Kawann Short, DT, Purdue

Jesse Williams, DT, Alabama

Dream Scenario: Trade a slew of picks this and next year to get into the top 5 to take Sharrif Floyd, DT, Florida. It will never happen, but if we did: Game Over. Super Bowl champs. Done deal.

Realistic Scenario: Draft Sio Moore, OLB, UConn. He is a tackling machine. Add that to Bobby Wagner, and we would have two. He is athletic, a work horse, a future Pro Bowler. I want him. I hope he falls to us.

Predicted Scenario: Trade up a few spots and take Kyle Long, OG, Oregon. It would be an unexciting pick, but that is what we do. It is either unexciting or called a complete reach. We will never draft flash with this regime.

SCHEDULE

Now, we get into the schedule, released yesterday, April 18^th. The bye week is nicely placed, as is the mini-bye from the Thursday game. Check out how it will all work out…

9/8/13 – at Carolina – This is one of those classic times when expectations are high, as is the disappointment of losing the game. We should have lost in Carolina last year. Cam Newton comes out hot. 10:00AM kick. LOSS 28-24

9/15/13 (SNF) – San Francisco – Prime-time game at home? Coming off a stunning loss on the road? Home opener? The Niners are walking into a buzz saw. WIN 31-21

9/22/13 – Jacksonville – Lowly Jags coming to town with our old DC Gus Bradley as their head coach. He gets a nice reception, but that is the end of their good news. WIN 38-14

9/29/13 – at Houston – I always thought this would end up a prime-time game, but I guess not. 10AM kickoff is a bit scary, but I do not think their offense can keep up. Okung, if healthy, should be able to handle Watt. WIN 27-20

10/6/13 – at Indianapolis – This is going to be a huge matchup between Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson. They are so tough at home. Second consecutive 10AM kickoff hurts the offensive rhythm. Loss 24-17

10/13/13 – Tennessee – Jake Locker’s return home should be a cool sight. Clem, Bruce, and company should have fun abusing that offensive line. WIN 31-7

10/17/13 (Thu) – at Arizona – The short week could be a problem, but they are not sneaking up on us this year. This is the start of our midseason push, and Palmer will start getting erratic. Defenses dominate this game. WIN 17-7

10/28/13 (Mon) – at St. Louis – The mini-bye week is in a nice spot, before another primetime matchup. We always seem to struggle in St. Louis getting it going. Last year we lost to a fake FG TD and a couple moon-shot FGs by “Greg the Leg”. Similar things may ensue. LOSS 23-21

11/3/13 – Tampa Bay – Even though Schiano has his boys playing well by this point, I just cannot see any home losses this year, although this would be the type of game we drop somehow. WIN 34-24

11/10/13 – at Atlanta – This is a rematch of one of the most up-and-down emotional games I have ever watched. It is destined to be another classic matchup of perennial playoff teams. I say we take our revenge and have someone stick the ageless TE this time. WIN 24-21

11/17/13 – Minnesota – Well, half of our roster gets to play their old team. Cool. WIN 40-20

---BYE WEEK---

12/2/13 (Mon) – New Orleans – Another Monday Night Football game at home, the first meeting since the “Beast-quake”. We don’t lose these games. This one is no different. High scoring affair, but the athletic little QB gets the better of one of his own inspirations. WIN 38-34

12/8/13 – at San Francisco – At this point, both teams with be jostling for playoff seeding. This will be upgraded to Sunday Night (like I correctly predicted last year), and we will see another ugly game in the rain. Turnovers, trash talk, beautiful football. LOSS 16-10

12/15/13 – at New York Giants – The Giants will likely be making their playoff push by this time, but the Hawks will need to get that bad taste out of their mouth after losing to their archrival. I will put this game on the Beast to win it for us. WIN 20-13

12/22/13 – Arizona – Coming back home to face the Cardinals? Love it. WIN 31-3

12/29/13 – St. Louis – Finishing the year off against the Rams again. Our games with them are always so close. Hopefully our line is healthy so we can actually attempt to block Chris Long this time. I say we squeak out a season-ending victory. WIN 21-20

So, that means we are going 12-4, including a second consecutive unbeaten home record. This will certainly put us in the playoffs, probably just beating out the Niners for the division and two-seed. This will give us a home playoff game, which should be a victory over whoever comes in. If the NFC Championship is in Atlanta or New Orleans or Green Bay, then that will be an epic battle. I say we get beat in any of those places and we win the Super Bowl next year. If we play in any other building, then we are headed to the Super Bowl. I am not going to say we take it, but I would love our chances on a neutral field. We probably lose a heartbreaker if we get there, giving us that much more motivation to be the first team in some 40 years to win a Super Bowl the year after losing it. Either way, next year is the year. This year is all about gaining the experience of being in Championship games and developing that frontrunner mentality. I wish we could have taken care of that last year, but we have to wait our turn. Final playoff prediction: Loss on the road in the NFC Championship to eventual Super Bowl champion Atlanta Falcons.

It will be an interesting year in the NFC West. The Rams are going to be right there battling for a playoff spot. The Cardinal shouldn’t be a complete pushover with Carson Palmer and Bruce Arians. The Niners have copied every move we make with a slightly less prestigious transaction, but they lost their Pro Bowl safety, UW alum Dashon Goldson. That could hurt the continuity of that stellar defensive unit. In the rest of the NFC, the Falcons are going to be in position to make another Super Bowl run. The Packers are always going to be around. I think the Saints and Niners take the wild cards. The Chip Kelly-led Eagles take the East with a 9-7 record. The NFC is so loaded. It is our turn to win the Super Bowl again.

All of this is of course contingent on Russell Wilson’s health. If they gun for him and he misses a few games, I am scared what kind of ugly makeshift offense we will draw up for Brady Quinn or whoever ends up being the backup. If he is smart and takes care of himself, then we are potentially looking at the NFL MVP this season, if he leads us to 12-4. He was the best QB in the league the last 8 weeks last year and had arguably the most impressive rookie QB season in the last 30 years. It is all on his shoulders. He seems to have the mentality to be immune to a sophomore slump. He spends as much time studying film as he does with his hot wife. He is a freak. That’s my quarterback. The separation is in the preparation. Win forever. I’m in. Go Hawks.

Thoughts? Comments? Your win/loss prediction? How is your favorite team’s schedule? Let me know!

Season Preview: 2012 Seattle Seahawks

Now, it may seem really indulgent to post a pre-draft and pre-OTA preview. I agree. I love my Seahawks and I do not care if no one else cares. Every sports network ignores the Seahawks, except for when they are talking about how bad the NFC West is. It is beyond annoying. Our only hope for national recognition lies with our former players who work for major sports outlets, such as Brock Huard (college football analyst, local ESPN radio affiliate) and Trent Dilfer (we all know he is remembered as a Raven and will not throw us a bone). Anyway, with the NFL schedule getting released earlier today, I felt compelled to talk about it. The schedule for the Hawks looks extremely favorable on paper, and for a team who has been a couple plays away from being a viable threat in the NFC the last two seasons, this will be the year that we break through.

Following last season’s 7-9 affair, expectations could not be higher for this Pete Carroll-led group. I even heard mumbles about if the Hawks had somehow snuck into the playoffs that they would be representing the NFC in the Super Bowl. That is how well we were playing down the stretch. That is with a guy who can’t lead a 4^th quarter touchdown drive at QB, who was playing with a torn pectoral muscle. That was with a chop shop offensive line made up of journeymen, Tom Cable’s buddies, and an injury-prone center (which still somehow amounted to the NFL’s best rushing attack in the second half of the season). That was with a couple old ass defensive linemen that still got to the passer. That was with youth all over the secondary (second year players Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor were our veterans), which was one of the best in the league down the stretch. No one wants to throw against two corners who are 6’4 and 6’3. However, with a blown 4^th quarter lead to the Redskins, an impossibly tough 19-17 loss against division champion 49ers, and an overtime heartbreaker to end the season at Arizona, we ended up with 7 wins, the same record as the season before. All the team needed was to get another year of experience and a quarterback who could lead the pack.

This offseason has been interesting. Losing out on Peyton Manning was a blow (as was the unveiling of those atrocious new uniforms). However, many Hawk fans (not necessarily I) are jacked up about the signing of unproven free agent QB Matt Flynn, who I get visions of watching from the sideline while Ryan Perilloux runs his offense at LSU every time I see his face. But, then again, I am not an expert. I hope I am wrong about Flynn and he is out starter for 10 years. That seems to be what most Hawk fans are expecting, so I will ride with the assumption that, you know, he actually can play.

The draft is in 8 days, and this will be a very key time for this team. With the 12^th pick, we have options. We are in a spot where a miss won’t set our franchise back. We are in position to move up into the top 10 (and anyone who listens to Pete Carroll knows that the idea of Ryan Tannehill in blue and green makes him giggle like a schoolgirl), and we are in a spot that people want to trade up to (which we should undoubtedly consider). There are tons of names thrown around by national media (who have no idea what they are talking about when they speak of my Seahawks), by local media, and by bloggers. Here is how it is shaping up:

Consensus pick: Luke Kuechly (ILB, Boston College). That would fill our biggest need, but he won’t fall to us.

My dream pick: Melvin Ingram (OLB, South Carolina). He is an amazing versatile pass-rushing talent, which will add depth and be an instant starter to our only legitimate hole on defense.

Realistic pick: [trade down] Coby Fleener (TE, Stanford). Carroll wants to have his two tight end system, and with John Carlson leaving in the offseason, he could be groomed behind Zach Miller and turn into the next TE putting up insane numbers in the league.

This brings us to our schedule. Many have jumped on the Seahawks for having a brutal road to the playoffs, basically because they don’t take us seriously. When you really analyze it, there are double-digit wins to be had here. All of the really difficult games are at home, and the bye week and post-Thursday night time off are well-placed. Check this out:

9/9/12 – at Arizona – This game was a classic last year to end the season. The Cardinals won 8 games with a bad roster, but the Hawks will make a much bigger jump this year. Seattle always starts off strong. WIN 28-17

9/16/12 – Dallas – Since the Romo fumble, the Cowboys have won three in a row against the Hawks, all in Dallas. The home opener for the Hawks will have the 12^th man rocking and Tony Homo shaking in his little space boots. WIN 31-24

9/24/12 (Mon) – Green Bay – Signing Matt Flynn already paid its dividends by giving us a Monday night game against his former team. We simply do not lose at home in primetime games. It looks like a shootout on paper, but Monday night games are not like that. This is a tough game decided by a field goal set up by Matt Flynn’s first game-winning drive as a Hawk, and the nation can no longer ignore us. WIN 20-17

9/30/12 – at St. Louis – The Seahawks have had incredible success against the Rams as of late. Even though the Rams are going to be much improved with Justin Blackmon inevitably getting drafted by them, I still think we take this one, low-scoring as usual with the 10 AM start time. Marshawn takes us there. WIN 20-10

10/7/12 – at Carolina – This is a classic game that the NFC West loses every year. Newton goes off and we drop our first game of the year. LOSS 35-24

10/14/12 – New England – Another home game, but this is the only time I see our brilliant young secondary really getting carved up. Chancellor takes Gronkowski out of the game, but Sherman and Browner cannot handle Welker and Hernandez. LOSS 41-28

10/18/12 (Thu) – at San Francisco – Even in our best seasons, we cannot win in San Fran. Under the lights, I see a brutal, ugly win for the home team. LOSS 14-9

10/28/12 – at Detroit – The 10 days off is the key here. This is the end of our most brutal stretch of the schedule (4 out of 5 on the road), but this is where we prevent our team from unraveling. WIN 28-27

11/4/12 – Minnesota – Tavaris playing against his home team is interesting if Flynn gets benched at some point. I cannot see us losing here. WIN 34-13

11/11/12 – New York Jets – By this point, Tebow will obviously be the starter. That does not bode well for whoever he is playing. LOSS 18-15

BYE WEEK

11/25/12 – at Miami – This is a nice place for a bye week to regroup after giving up a last minute TD drive to Tebow. Flynn proves that he chose the right team. WIN 24-20

12/2/12 – at Chicago – Seattle has won in Chicago each of the last two seasons, but Caleb Hanie will not be starting in this game, and it will be in December unlike two years ago. LOSS 28-13

12/9/12 – Arizona – Arizona will probably be playing well by this point, but we will be in the running for a playoff spot. This will be a tough game, but I think we prevail. WIN 23-21

12/16/12 – at Buffalo (in Toronto) – Playing indoors most likely will be a nice way to avoid a freezing weather game late in the year. Buffalo will be improved, but not ready for the rolling Seahawks. WIN 31-21

12/23/12 – San Francisco – This game could be for the division. This will be upgraded to Sunday night, which means a huge primetime victory for the home team in front of its ruckus crowd. WIN 23-17

12/30/12 – St Louis – Even in our worst seasons we didn’t lose to the Rams in Seattle. WIN 24-10

So, that means we will be going 11-5 (4 win increase from 2011), probably either taking the NFC West or scoring the 5^th seed in the playoffs. Depending on which one, we could win a playoff game, and depending on matchups, maybe taking more than one. Many people will say that I am overstating how good we can be, but just look at last season and how close we were with that depleted roster of rookies and no names. We have the talent to be a top 5 defense. Last year, we scored victories against the Super Bowl champion Giants on the road, and we convincingly beat the Ravens (score was not indicative) and Eagles at home. And we didn’t have a quarterback. Our division will be much tougher this year. I suspect that even the Rams will win 6 games or more. The Niners will come back down to earth with a less cakewalk of a schedule and an unhappy quarterback, but their defense is still good for 10+ wins. The Cardinals need to shore up its defense a bit, and they can be every bit as strong as the Seahawks. Our division had some real quality wins last year, but now those games will mean something. I would say that the NFC West will be the talk of the league, but that would mean that people would have to care.

So, I know that I may be a bit of a homer, but no one knows the tendencies of the Seahawks more than I do. 11-5 is my best guess after looking at the schedule. If it is flipped and we go 5-11, which experts will say is 10 times more likely, I will be beyond shocked. This Seahawk defense will not let that happen. This is a playoff team.

Is anyone else drinking the Carroll Kool-Aid? What is your win-loss prediction? How is your favorite team’s schedule and upcoming season shaping up? Let me know.