2024 Pre-Season Profile: Cleveland Guardians

 #21

The Cleveland Guardians saw their legendary manager retire at the end of 2023.  Will their rookie manager be ready to lead them to the postseason?

2023 Predictions

#14 - 2nd in AL Central

MIH - Andres Gimenez

MIP - Triston McKenzie

PTW - Bo Naylor

FP - Steven Kwan will win the AL batting title in 2023.

2023 Results

#22 - 76-86, 3rd in AL Central

Highest WAR (Position) - Andres Gimenez

Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Tanner Bibee

The 2023 season for the Guardians was the definition of mediocrity.  They were never bad, but they weren't really relevant either.  Their best players either got injured or had average seasons.  There was little to cheer about, but you couldn't really jeer the season either.

Additions / Subtractions

The biggest change heading into 2024 for the Guardians is the retirement of longtime manager Terry Francona.  He has been replaced by the recently retired player Stephen Vogt.  Very few changes were made to the roster.  Veteran starter Carlos Carrasco is back in Cleveland, and they acquired veteran outfielder Estevan Florial.

Most Important Hitter

Steven Kwan

Steven Kwan had one of the greatest starts to a career you could have in 2022.  Despite cooling off the second half of the season, he still almost hit .300 and sported a 124 OPS+.  In 2023, the sophomore slump set in, as his OPS+ fell to 100 and only hit .268 (far from a batting title).  Perfectly average.  The Guardians have a couple thumpers in the middle of the lineup, but they need someone on base ahead of them.  If Kwan can get back to his 2022 self, this offense might actually be okay.

Most Important Pitcher

Emmanuel Clase

Few bullpens these days are defined by one dominant arm at closer.  Cleveland is one of them.  Emmanuel Clase might be the best closer in baseball, and the Guardians lean heavily on him because of it.  If Clase gets hurt or starts to struggle, it could derail the entire bullpen.  If he stays healthy and dominant, their bullpen works.

Prospect to Watch

Brayan Rocchio

With the 19th ranked farm system in baseball, the Guardians sport 4 players in the Top 100.  One of those is the Opening Day shortstop, Brayan Rocchio.  Ranked #91 overall and 3rd in the system, Rocchio made his debut at the end of 2023, and now the 23 year old switch hitter is ready for the full time gig.  He's a solid hitter and a good base runner, but his best attribute is his defense which could lead to a Gold Glove at some point in his career.

2024 Prediction

3rd in AL Central

The Guardians the last few seasons have felt like a team where their amazing manager willed them into contention every season despite their roster.  Now with Francona gone, I don't know how well they can do.  I'm a fan of new manager Stephen Vogt, but it might take him a little while to make this roster and team his.

Fearless Prediction

Shane Bieber will be traded mid-season.

Simply from the nature of their division, the Guardians might be in contention for awhile this season, but I could also see them realize an opportunity to cash in on one of their best players before he cashes in with another team next season.  Shane Bieber has had moments of being elite in Cleveland, and now he's heading into his final season before free agency.  I don't think the Guardians will re-sign him, which means they will probably trade him.

2023 Pre-Season Profile: Cleveland Guardians

 #14

The Cleveland Guardians rode one of the youngest rosters in the league to a postseason spot and a game away from the ALCS.  Will 2023 see them take a step back or a step forward?

2022 Predictions

#22 - 5th in AL Central

MIH - Jose Ramirez

MIP - Shane Bieber

PTW - Logan Allen

2022 Results

#7 - 92-70, 1st in AL Central, lost in ALDS

Highest WAR (Position) - Andres Gimenez

Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Triston McKenzie

I don't think I was more wrong about a team last year than I was here.  In their first year as the Guardians, the Cleveland franchise exceeded all expectations, won the division, one the Wild Card round, and took the mighty Yankees to a win-or-go-home game in the ALDS.  How did they do it?  Everyone stepped up!  Entering last season, it felt like all they had was Jose Ramirez and Shane Bieber.  They both had good seasons, yet they finished 2nd and 6th respectively on the team in WAR.  Last year saw the emergence of both Andres Gimenez and Amed Rosario, two of the main pieces they received in the Francisco Lindor trade.  Rookie Steven Kwan established himself as one of the best contact hitters in the league, Triston McKenzie appears to be a legitimate starter to pair with Bieber, and Emmanuel Clase is now one of the best closers in the league.  The 2022 Guardians may have been the best coaching job of Terry Francona's career.

Additions / Subtractions

The Guardians never hit home runs in the offseason.  They make small complementary moves, which is all they needed to do with such a young emerging core.  The two main additions were catcher Mike Zunino and first baseman Josh Bell.  The only significant subtraction was catcher Austin Hedges who was signed by the Pirates.  So the Guardians are entering 2023 with their roster mostly in tact.

Most Important Hitter

Andres Gimenez

Like I said, the emergence of several stars made the Guardians the contender they were in 2022.  The biggest of these was Andres Gimenez.  In 2022, he almost hit .300 with 17 homers, 69 RBI's, 20 steals, and a 141 OPS+.  This was good enough for an All Star appearance, a 6th place finish in the MVP voting, and Gold Glove for 2nd base.  That 7.4 WAR is the ultimate splash season, especially considering he had only earned 1.8 WAR in his first two seasons combined.  The biggest question surrounding the Guardians is also the biggest question surrounding Gimenez.  Can he do it again?  Was 2022 a fluke or the establishment of a new superstar?  If the Guardians are going to repeat last year's success, Gimenez needs to continue to take steps forward in his development.  At only 24 years old, he still has plenty of capacity to grow.

Most Important Pitcher

Triston McKenzie

Just like Gimenez, Triston McKenzie broke out on the scene in 2022 in his 3rd season in the league.  He had a 2.96 ERA in just under 200 innings, which was good for a 129 ERA+.  Entering his age 25 season, the familiar question will be asked ... can he do it again?  With pitchers, it's a little different than hitters.  Can McKenzie's arm hold out?  That was quite a jump in innings in 2022 from 120 to 191.  Also, he 6'5" 165 pounds!  Can that arm and that frame hold up through another 200 inning season, or will injuries catch up with him?  The Guardians have some depth in the rotation, but McKenzie has made himself pretty vital to their success.

Prospect to Watch

Bo Naylor

With 7 prospects in the Top 100 list, the Guardians sport a top 5 farm system in all of baseball.  Many of those top prospects could be ready to impact the big league roster this season, but possibly the most fascinating of those prospects is Bo Naylor.  This 23 year old catcher is the younger brother of current Guardian Josh Naylor.  He got a small taste of the big leagues in 2022, appearing in 8 games.  With the Guardians signing a veteran backstop like Mike Zunino, look for little Naylor to pair alongside Zunino at some point this season in a platoon-like situation.  As a lefty slugger, he could really have an impact.

2023 Prediction

2nd in AL Central

There has to be some turnover in the playoff picture in 2023.  It might feel like a hot take, but I'm saying the Guardians come up just short.  With all the guys that had career seasons in 2023 and all of them trying to break out at the same time, there has to be some regression.  Andres Gimenez can't have another 7 win season, right?  Triston McKenzie can't handle that many innings, right?  I'm not saying they are going to be bad.  They will be one of the last teams to be eliminated from contention.  This is the bottom of the group of teams that can not only make the playoffs, but make a run if they get there.  The American League just has too many good teams.

Fearless Predictions

Steven Kwan will win the AL batting title in 2023.

One of the players that feels like he can repeat his success from 2022 is Steven Kwan.  He started his 2022 season with an absurd stat where he didn't swing and miss in the first 116 pitches he saw.  When you make that much contact, you find a lot of hits.  His rookie season brought about a .298 batting average.  With a year under his belt, Kwan is enough of a professional hitter that he could easily make a jump like this and take the batting title, especially since last year's batting champ (Luis Arraez) is now in the National League.