#14
The Cleveland Guardians rode one of the youngest rosters in the league to a postseason spot and a game away from the ALCS. Will 2023 see them take a step back or a step forward?
#22 - 5th in AL Central
MIH - Jose Ramirez
MIP - Shane Bieber
PTW - Logan Allen
2022 Results
#7 - 92-70, 1st in AL Central, lost in ALDS
Highest WAR (Position) - Andres Gimenez
Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Triston McKenzie
I don't think I was more wrong about a team last year than I was here. In their first year as the Guardians, the Cleveland franchise exceeded all expectations, won the division, one the Wild Card round, and took the mighty Yankees to a win-or-go-home game in the ALDS. How did they do it? Everyone stepped up! Entering last season, it felt like all they had was Jose Ramirez and Shane Bieber. They both had good seasons, yet they finished 2nd and 6th respectively on the team in WAR. Last year saw the emergence of both Andres Gimenez and Amed Rosario, two of the main pieces they received in the Francisco Lindor trade. Rookie Steven Kwan established himself as one of the best contact hitters in the league, Triston McKenzie appears to be a legitimate starter to pair with Bieber, and Emmanuel Clase is now one of the best closers in the league. The 2022 Guardians may have been the best coaching job of Terry Francona's career.
Additions / Subtractions
The Guardians never hit home runs in the offseason. They make small complementary moves, which is all they needed to do with such a young emerging core. The two main additions were catcher Mike Zunino and first baseman Josh Bell. The only significant subtraction was catcher Austin Hedges who was signed by the Pirates. So the Guardians are entering 2023 with their roster mostly in tact.
Most Important Hitter
Andres Gimenez
Like I said, the emergence of several stars made the Guardians the contender they were in 2022. The biggest of these was Andres Gimenez. In 2022, he almost hit .300 with 17 homers, 69 RBI's, 20 steals, and a 141 OPS+. This was good enough for an All Star appearance, a 6th place finish in the MVP voting, and Gold Glove for 2nd base. That 7.4 WAR is the ultimate splash season, especially considering he had only earned 1.8 WAR in his first two seasons combined. The biggest question surrounding the Guardians is also the biggest question surrounding Gimenez. Can he do it again? Was 2022 a fluke or the establishment of a new superstar? If the Guardians are going to repeat last year's success, Gimenez needs to continue to take steps forward in his development. At only 24 years old, he still has plenty of capacity to grow.
Most Important Pitcher
Triston McKenzie
Just like Gimenez, Triston McKenzie broke out on the scene in 2022 in his 3rd season in the league. He had a 2.96 ERA in just under 200 innings, which was good for a 129 ERA+. Entering his age 25 season, the familiar question will be asked ... can he do it again? With pitchers, it's a little different than hitters. Can McKenzie's arm hold out? That was quite a jump in innings in 2022 from 120 to 191. Also, he 6'5" 165 pounds! Can that arm and that frame hold up through another 200 inning season, or will injuries catch up with him? The Guardians have some depth in the rotation, but McKenzie has made himself pretty vital to their success.
Prospect to Watch
Bo Naylor
With 7 prospects in the Top 100 list, the Guardians sport a top 5 farm system in all of baseball. Many of those top prospects could be ready to impact the big league roster this season, but possibly the most fascinating of those prospects is Bo Naylor. This 23 year old catcher is the younger brother of current Guardian Josh Naylor. He got a small taste of the big leagues in 2022, appearing in 8 games. With the Guardians signing a veteran backstop like Mike Zunino, look for little Naylor to pair alongside Zunino at some point this season in a platoon-like situation. As a lefty slugger, he could really have an impact.
2023 Prediction
2nd in AL Central
There has to be some turnover in the playoff picture in 2023. It might feel like a hot take, but I'm saying the Guardians come up just short. With all the guys that had career seasons in 2023 and all of them trying to break out at the same time, there has to be some regression. Andres Gimenez can't have another 7 win season, right? Triston McKenzie can't handle that many innings, right? I'm not saying they are going to be bad. They will be one of the last teams to be eliminated from contention. This is the bottom of the group of teams that can not only make the playoffs, but make a run if they get there. The American League just has too many good teams.
Fearless Predictions
Steven Kwan will win the AL batting title in 2023.
One of the players that feels like he can repeat his success from 2022 is Steven Kwan. He started his 2022 season with an absurd stat where he didn't swing and miss in the first 116 pitches he saw. When you make that much contact, you find a lot of hits. His rookie season brought about a .298 batting average. With a year under his belt, Kwan is enough of a professional hitter that he could easily make a jump like this and take the batting title, especially since last year's batting champ (Luis Arraez) is now in the National League.
No comments:
Post a Comment