#11
The Baltimore Orioles were by far the most surprising team in 2022, almost making the playoffs after a 110 loss season the year before. Can they make another leap and reach the postseason in 2023?
#25 - 5th in AL East
MIH - Cedric Mullins
MIP - John Means
PTW - Adley Rutschman
2022 Results
#14 - 83-79, 5th in AL East
Highest WAR (Position) - Adley Rutschman
Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Cionel Perez
The Baltimore Orioles hadn't had a winning record since 2016 when they lost to the Blue Jays and Jose Bautista's bat flip in the Wild Card Game. Outside of the COVID-shortened 2020 season, the Orioles had lost more than 100 games for 3 straight seasons, earning the first overall pick twice, including the 2022 Draft. So how did they go from 110 losses to the last AL team eliminated from playoff contention in one season? Adley Rutschman. No one player had a greater singular impact on their team than the arrival of Adley Rutschman. He didn't make his big league debut till the end of May, and yet the former #1 overall pick was by far the Orioles best player. He was their best hitter, he managed the pitching staff behind the plate. If it wasn't for the superhuman season from Julio Rodriguez, Rutschman would have been an easy pick for Rookie of the Year. With that said, the Orioles understood the goal wasn't to compete in 2022, but to compete for the next decade. So instead of sending off prospects at the Trade Deadline to make a run, the Orioles instead sold off their closer Jorge Lopez and the former face of the franchise Trey Mancini. Yet they still had a shot at a playoff spot in the last week of the season.
Additions / Subtractions
The Orioles have so much young talent, their offseason just needed to complement what they already had. They brought in pitchers Kyle Gibson and Cole Irvin to bolster the rotation. They signed second baseman Adam Frazier and traded for catcher James McCann to provide some veteran presence and depth. The only significant subtraction was veteran second baseman Rougned Odor.
Most Important Hitter
Gunnar Henderson
It's rare that a rookie could be considered a team's most important hitter, but the Orioles are a rare team. Gunnar Henderson, the top prospect in all of baseball, burst on the scene in 2022 playing in 34 games down the stretch. In that time, he had an OPS+ of 123 (only Rutschman's was higher) and earned 0.9 WAR despite the small sample size. This performance pushed him up to that top spot in the prospect lists. Now, he is slated to be the Opening Day starting third baseman, and the Orioles are hoping they can get an instant impact out of Henderson like they got out of Rutschman last season. Only 22 years old, will Henderson take some time to settle in to being a full time big leaguer, or do the Orioles have another instant superstar on their hands?
Most Important Pitcher
Dean Kremer
The weakness of the Orioles in 2022 was their pitching, which is probably why they brought in several additions to their starting rotation this offseason. This issue was compounded by the loss of former All Star and Opening Day starter John Means to Tommy John surgery. He won't be ready till at least mid-season. One of the more pleasant surprises for the Orioles pitching staff in 2022 was Dead Kremer. In only his third season in the big leagues, Kremer had a 124 ERA+ over 125 innings. If he is able to improve on 2022, or even just repeat last year's performance, the Orioles will have a solid starter they could count on moving forward.
Prospect to Watch
Grayson Rodriguez
The Orioles have one of the best farm systems in all of baseball, ranked either 1st or 2nd in every rankings list. It's easy to have a farm system this elite when you are as bad as the Orioles have been for this long. Baltimore currently has 8 prospects in the Top 100 in baseball, with possibly up to 6 of them ready to contribute at the big league level in 2023. Everyone is talking about Gunnar Henderson (even me), but he barely counts as a prospect anymore with the experience he got last season. With the question marks in the pitching staff, Grayson Rodriguez seems like a more intriguing prospect. Ranked 7th in the Top 100, and the 2nd best pitcher, Rodriguez has the potential to be the ace of the staff for years to come. Rodriguez will start the season in AAA after some struggles in Spring Training, but he will be in this rotation at some point soon.
2023 Prediction
2nd in AL East, WILD CARD, lose in Wild Card Round
I love this team! Their performance in 2022 showed they have turned the corner and are ready to take another step. Yes, they may be in the highly competitive AL East, but they were last year too and still almost made the playoffs. Their lineup is a great mix of veterans and young phenoms. The one question is if they can pitch enough. If they can't, they might be able to score enough.
Fearless Prediction
The Orioles will have two of the top 3 finishers in AL Rookie of the Year.
Between Gunnar Henderson and Grayson Rodriguez, the Orioles have two of the top potential rookies in the American League entering the season, and if the Orioles make the run I am predicting, then these two will also have to be two of the biggest producing rookies at the end of the season. As the season draws to a close, watch for Gunnar and Grayson to emerge as young leaders of this team to go alongside Adley Rutschman. It's also only a matter of time before last year's #1 overall pick, Jackson Holliday, breaks out in the next few seasons too. The future has never been brighter in Baltimore.
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