#5
The Houston Astros went all the way and won the World Series in 2022. Will they be able to make it back despite losing the reigning Cy Young winner?
#7 - 2nd in AL West, WILD CARD, lose in ALDS
MIH - Kyle Tucker
MIP - Justin Verlander
PTW - Jeremy Pena
2022 Results
#1 - 106-56, 1st in AL West, won World Series
Highest WAR (Position) - Yordan Alvarez
Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Justin Verlander
Here is exactly what I said about the Houston Astros before last season... "How many times can a team lose a superstar and not skip a beat? After the 2019 season, Gerrit Cole (3rd in team WAR) sign with the Yankees. After the 2020 season, George Springer (team leader in WAR) signs with the Blue Jays. After the 2021 season, Carlos Correa (team leader in WAR) signs with the Twins. Somehow they keep excelling. They have to be coming to the end of this magical run though." Well, apparently not. Thanks to rookie Jeremy Pena and the emergence of Yordan Alvarez, the Astros didn't really miss Correa at all. Their 2022 World Series win was validation after the sign stealing scandal somewhat tainted the 2017 championship.
Additions / Subtractions
So how many times can a team lose a superstar and not skip a beat? This offseason it was reigning Cy Young Award winner Justin Verlander who signed with the Mets. The only other subtractions were first baseman Yuli Gurriel and role players Aledmys Diaz and Trey Mancini. Coming in to Houston to replace Gurriel is former MVP Jose Abreu. The other thing to note here is thanks to a HBP in the WBC, Jose Altuve will be sidelined for the first two months of the season.
Most Important Hitter
Jeremy Pena
Jeremy Pena became a superstar last postseason after winning ALCS MVP as well as World Series MVP; not bad for a rookie who was replacing a face of the franchise. However, many forget that he wasn't that great during the regular season. He did win the Gold Glove, but his OPS+ was at 101, which is pretty much league average. The Astros are entering 2023 thinking they have a star at shortstop. If that's the case, Pena needs to show he can be more productive throughout the entire season this year.
Most Important Pitcher
Framber Valdez
Framber Valdez has been quietly dominant for Houston since his debut in 2018. In 2022, everyone started to notice him as he posted a 137 ERA+ and finished in 5th in the Cy Young voting. Now, Valdez is the undisputed ace of the staff. It's a lot easier to have success when no one is paying attention. Now, with no Gerrit Cole or Zack Greinke or Justin Verlander or a healthy Lance McCullers Jr., Valdez is in the spotlight and expected to fill those shoes. There has yet to be a challenge he hasn't been up for, but can he handle being the ace for an entire season?
Prospect to Watch
Hunter Brown
Ever since the Astros started this dominant run, their farm system has been pretty depleted through graduating top prospects and trades, however they always seem to have a guy ready each year to impact the big league team. This year, that guy is Hunter Brown. This right-handed starting pitcher is ranked #43 on the Top 100 and is the only player the Astros have in the Top 100. One of the nice things about being a prospect in a successful system like the Astros is you get exposed to more sooner. Brown got a chance to pitch in a few games at the end of last season, but he also made the postseason roster and pitched out of the bullpen in the ALDS and ALCS. That experience should help him as he starts this season in the Astros rotation and appears ready to be their next mainstay.
2023 Prediction
1st in AL West, lose in ALDS
So how many times can a team lose a superstar and not skip a beat? Well, the Astros are truly testing this theory again. The players they have left have shown they know how to navigate the regular season and the postseason, but repeating is so difficult. I see them winning the division again, but eventually everything catches up with them in the playoffs. If this truly is what happens, it will be the first time since 2016 the Astros will not be appearing in the ALCS. I don't see how that run could be repeated any time soon.
Fearless Prediction
Manager Dusty Baker retires at the end of the 2023 season.
Dusty Baker has been one of the best managers of the 21st century. He has led the Giants, Cubs, Reds, Nationals, and Astros over a 25 year managing career. Last season, he finally got his World Series championship, a feat that had also eluded him during his playing career. It would have made a lot of sense if he used that World Series victory to ride off into the sunset, but you get the temptation to see if you can do it again. I could see coming up short in 2023 being a sign that it is time for the 73 year old to step away from the dugout and await his spot in Cooperstown.
No comments:
Post a Comment