#26
The Detroit Tigers have felt primed for a breakout season for several years now. Now, as they prepare to celebrate the final season of their future Hall of Famer, has the window for their possible breakout closed?
#15 - 2nd in AL Central
MIH - Javier Baez
MIP - Casey Mize
PTW - Spencer Torkelson
2022 Results
#25 - 66-96, 4th in AL Central
Highest WAR (Position) - Javier Baez
Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Tarik Skubal
The 2022 Tigers showed a lot of promise. They had their brand new star signed to a huge deal, they had their former #1 overall pick ready to make debut and take baseball by storm, they had stable of young pitchers all ready to be future aces. Everything was looking up, but nothing seemed to work out. Javy Baez had only a 93 OPS+, Spencer Torkelson bounced between AAA and the big leagues while barely hitting .200, and their other former #1 overall pick in Casey Mize only started 2 games before getting injured. The only thing that seemed to go right was Miguel Cabrera was able to celebrate his 3000th hit.
Additions / Subtractions
The Tigers had a fairly quiet offseason with some potentially sneaky good moves. The main moves they made brought in veteran starters Matthew Boyd and Michael Lorenzen to round out the rotation and replace other veterans like Drew Hutchison. The main departures were catcher Tucker Barnhart, third baseman Jeimer Candelario, and reliever Gregory Soto.
Most Important Hitter
Spencer Torkelson
When you take a player with the #1 overall draft pick, you expect an All Star pretty soon after he takes the field for the first time at the big league level. Although it's still early, so far the Tigers have whiffed on two recent top picks. Casey Mize, the #1 overall pick in 2018 has yet to do much in 3 seasons (and will probably miss most, if not all, of 2023 with Tommy John). Then there's Spencer Torkelson. The top overall pick in 2020 out of Arizona State, Torkelson was supposed to be ready to hit at the big league level the second he arrived. Instead, he struggled to adjust to big league pitching with only a 77 OPS+ in 110 games. If the Tigers are going to take a step forward, Torkelson needs to be an All Star caliber hitter.
Most Important Pitcher
Matt Manning
The Tigers went from having a potential core of young aces to a starting rotation of mostly veterans. They need at least one of their young starters to take a huge step forward in 2023. The most likely to break out is Matt Manning. In 2022, Manning only started 12 games but pitched well with a 3.43 ERA and a 111 ERA+. This season is set up perfectly for Manning to have a big year.
Prospect to Watch
Wilmer Flores
If the name sounds familiar, there's a reason. His brother has the same name and has been an infielder in the big leagues for years. This version of Wilmer Flores is a big 6'4" right hander that looks about ready to make an impact in a big league rotation and be the latest Tigers pitching phenom to try and be their next ace. Ranked #95 on MLB's Top 100 prospects, Flores is the last of 3 to make the list. Although they don't have anyone in the top 50, the Tigers have a pretty deep farm system (which is pretty easy to have when they have this bad for this long).
2023 Prediction
5th in AL Central
I've given up hope on the Tigers. Too many times over the last few seasons I have predicted the Tigers to make the big leap forward and be a breakout team (last year, I pick them 2nd in the division ... 2ND!!!). Every year they disappoint me. I'm done picking them. No matter what top tier talent they have breaking out this year, they can never figure it out, even in one of the least competitive divisions in baseball. Now with the balanced schedule, it's going to be even harder for a team like the Tigers to be good. I hope they surprise me, but I'm not picking the breakout season again until I see signs they are even going to get better.
Fearless Prediction
A.J. Hinch will be fired mid-season.
Before the 2021 season, A.J. Hinch was hired after his year long suspension from the Astros sign stealing scandal to do for the Tigers what he did for the Astros (not the sign stealing, the winning of a World Series). However, since he arrived, the Tigers have been going backwards. If 2023 goes the way I see it going, it's obvious the Hinch hire isn't working.
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