#12
The Tampa Bay Rays seem to always find their way into the postseason conversation every year. Will 2023 continue this trend, or will they be surpassed by the more high-powered teams around them?
#18 - 4th in AL East
MIH - Randy Arozarena
MIP - Shane McClanahan
PTW - Shane Baz
2022 Results
#12 - 86-76, 3rd in AL East, WILD CARD, lost in Wild Card Series
Highest WAR (Position) - Yandy Diaz
Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Shane McClanahan
As it always tends to be, the Tampa Bay Rays exceeded expectations in 2022 and got all the way to the postseason while navigating the toughest division in baseball. One of the main reasons for that was the breakout season from ace Shane McClanahan. His first half earned him the start for the American League in the All Star Game. Injuries slowed down the second half, which seemed to be the case for several players. Kevin Kiermaier, Brandon Lowe, Wander Franco, and Mike Zunino just to name a few missed more than half the season, and the Rays still made the playoffs. I don't know how they do it every year, but they do.
Additions / Subtractions
Stop the presses!!! The Rays have signed a free agent to a multi-year contract!!! For such a frugal team, this occurrence is truly one of note. Starter Zach Eflin received a 3 year deal from the Rays to replace the production of veteran Corey Kluber. Departing the Rays this offseason were catcher Mike Zunino, first baseman Ji Man Choi, and centerfielder Kevin Kiermaier. In more typical Rays fashion, these players were replaced internally through their organizational depth.
Most Important Hitter
Wander Franco
Everything that we have seen so far, Wander Franco is a transcendent talent that could be one of the best players in baseball. The Rays were so convinced that they decided to commit to Franco in a way they haven't committed to anyone before, signing him to an 11 year, $182 million deal before last season after he had only played 70 games at the age of 20. Injuries derailed Franco's first full season in the big leagues and held him to just 83 games. Now the Rays need Wander to play a full season and show he is the elite player they have hoped he will be. Or will his career instead be defined by injury after injury? For the Rays sake, I hope not.
Most Important Pitcher
Shane McClanahan
In only his second season in the big leagues, 2022 couldn't have started much better for Shane McClanahan. He started the All Star Game, he was the favorite for the Cy Young, and everyone was ready to crown him the next great ace. Then he fizzled out down the stretch, dealing with injuries and possible overwork. Looking at his final stat line, his 2022 season was a huge success. He had a 12-8 record with a 2.54 ERA, 194 strikeouts in 166 innings, and a 142 ERA+. He finished 6th in the Cy Young voting. It was a great season. The problem comes with the inconsistency of the season. Who is Shane McClanahan? Is he one of the best pitchers in baseball like he was in the first half? Or is he the young pitcher who struggled through injuries down the stretch to be effective? The Rays are hoping the second half of 2022 was the anomaly and that he can return to the dominant version that took the league by storm to start last season.
Prospect to Watch
Taj Bradley
The most predictable aspect of the Rays every year is their farm system is going to be strong and deep. MLB lists their farm system right now as 6th best. Bleacher Report lists them as 11th. They have 4 players listed in the Top 100 Prospects, and the best of those is Taj Bradley. Ranked 20th on the Top 100 list, Bradley has been working his way through Tampa's farm system since they drafted him in the 5th round in 2018. Now he's 22 years old and ready to join the Tampa rotation sooner rather than later. Tampa always can pitch and seems to develop pitchers better than anyone else. Bradley appears to be the next great one.
2023 Prediction
3rd in AL East, WILD CARD, lose in Wild Card Series
Every year, we say, "How do the Rays do it?" This year will be no different. In a division with superteams and huge payrolls, the Rays have mastered the low payroll and young roster formula and end up in or around the postseason every season. The one problem is they always seem to be good but never actually great. Yes, they ended up in the World Series in the short COVID 2020 season, and that happens about once a decade, but I don't see 2023 being a deep playoff run. With that said, making the playoffs out of the AL East is a victory in itself.
Fearless Prediction
Wander Franco will be in the Top 5 in AL MVP voting.
If the Rays make a run, Wander Franco will be an MVP candidate. There's a reason the Rays picked him to be the first player they truly commit to long term. He is a special talent that can carry a lineup as he continues to develop into a superstar. If you thought everyone was talking about Wander Franco in 2021, just wait till 2023.
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