2023 Pre-Season Profile: Tampa Bay Rays

 #12

The Tampa Bay Rays seem to always find their way into the postseason conversation every year.  Will 2023 continue this trend, or will they be surpassed by the more high-powered teams around them?

2022 Predictions

#18 - 4th in AL East

MIH - Randy Arozarena

MIP - Shane McClanahan

PTW - Shane Baz

2022 Results

#12 - 86-76, 3rd in AL East, WILD CARD, lost in Wild Card Series

Highest WAR (Position) - Yandy Diaz

Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Shane McClanahan

As it always tends to be, the Tampa Bay Rays exceeded expectations in 2022 and got all the way to the postseason while navigating the toughest division in baseball.  One of the main reasons for that was the breakout season from ace Shane McClanahan.  His first half earned him the start for the American League in the All Star Game.  Injuries slowed down the second half, which seemed to be the case for several players.  Kevin Kiermaier, Brandon Lowe, Wander Franco, and Mike Zunino just to name a few missed more than half the season, and the Rays still made the playoffs.  I don't know how they do it every year, but they do.

Additions / Subtractions

Stop the presses!!!  The Rays have signed a free agent to a multi-year contract!!!  For such a frugal team, this occurrence is truly one of note.  Starter Zach Eflin received a 3 year deal from the Rays to replace the production of veteran Corey Kluber.  Departing the Rays this offseason were catcher Mike Zunino, first baseman Ji Man Choi, and centerfielder Kevin Kiermaier.  In more typical Rays fashion, these players were replaced internally through their organizational depth.

Most Important Hitter

Wander Franco

Everything that we have seen so far, Wander Franco is a transcendent talent that could be one of the best players in baseball.  The Rays were so convinced that they decided to commit to Franco in a way they haven't committed to anyone before, signing him to an 11 year, $182 million deal before last season after he had only played 70 games at the age of 20.  Injuries derailed Franco's first full season in the big leagues and held him to just 83 games.  Now the Rays need Wander to play a full season and show he is the elite player they have hoped he will be.  Or will his career instead be defined by injury after injury?  For the Rays sake, I hope not.

Most Important Pitcher

Shane McClanahan

In only his second season in the big leagues, 2022 couldn't have started much better for Shane McClanahan.  He started the All Star Game, he was the favorite for the Cy Young, and everyone was ready to crown him the next great ace.  Then he fizzled out down the stretch, dealing with injuries and possible overwork.  Looking at his final stat line, his 2022 season was a huge success.  He had a 12-8 record with a 2.54 ERA, 194 strikeouts in 166 innings, and a 142 ERA+.  He finished 6th in the Cy Young voting.  It was a great season.  The problem comes with the inconsistency of the season.  Who is Shane McClanahan?  Is he one of the best pitchers in baseball like he was in the first half?  Or is he the young pitcher who struggled through injuries down the stretch to be effective?  The Rays are hoping the second half of 2022 was the anomaly and that he can return to the dominant version that took the league by storm to start last season.

Prospect to Watch

Taj Bradley

The most predictable aspect of the Rays every year is their farm system is going to be strong and deep.  MLB lists their farm system right now as 6th best.  Bleacher Report lists them as 11th.  They have 4 players listed in the Top 100 Prospects, and the best of those is Taj Bradley.  Ranked 20th on the Top 100 list, Bradley has been working his way through Tampa's farm system since they drafted him in the 5th round in 2018.  Now he's 22 years old and ready to join the Tampa rotation sooner rather than later.  Tampa always can pitch and seems to develop pitchers better than anyone else.  Bradley appears to be the next great one.

2023 Prediction

3rd in AL East, WILD CARD, lose in Wild Card Series

Every year, we say, "How do the Rays do it?"  This year will be no different.  In a division with superteams and huge payrolls, the Rays have mastered the low payroll and young roster formula and end up in or around the postseason every season.  The one problem is they always seem to be good but never actually great.  Yes, they ended up in the World Series in the short COVID 2020 season, and that happens about once a decade, but I don't see 2023 being a deep playoff run.  With that said, making the playoffs out of the AL East is a victory in itself.

Fearless Prediction

Wander Franco will be in the Top 5 in AL MVP voting.

If the Rays make a run, Wander Franco will be an MVP candidate.  There's a reason the Rays picked him to be the first player they truly commit to long term.  He is a special talent that can carry a lineup as he continues to develop into a superstar.  If you thought everyone was talking about Wander Franco in 2021, just wait till 2023.

2021 Pre-Season Profile: Tampa Bay Rays

 #11

The Tampa Bay Rays made it all the way to the World Series in 2020 before losing to the Dodgers.  Can this roster see the same level of success in a full season in 2021?

2020 Predictions

#2 - 1st in AL East, lose in World Series

MIH - Austin Meadows

MIP - Blake Snell

PTW - Brendan McKay

2020 Results

#2 - 40-20, 1st in AL East, lost in World Series

I was pretty excited when I realized I successfully predicted the World Series teams and result.  The Rays rode their insane bullpen and deep roster built for playing the matchup game all the way to the Fall Classic before losing to the Dodger juggernaut.  It really felt like the Rays started to run out of steam at the wrong time.  So, they pulled their ace starter while he was dealing.  Sorry, pulling Snell in that last game still makes no sense.

Additions / Subtractions

Speaking of Blake Snell, one of the biggest storylines of the offseason was the Rays unloading Blake Snell to the Padres for a haul of prospects.  Charlie Morton also signed elsewhere, leaving a couple holes in the rotation.  They filled these holes, at least to start the season, with Chris Archer, Rich Hill, and Collin McHugh.  As far as the lineup is concerned, outside of letting Hunter Renfroe sign elsewhere, they are entering 2021 with the same lineup they ended 2020 with.

Most Important Hitter

Randy Arozarena

Randy Arozarena is technically still a prospect with rookie status in tact, however I don't know if more is expected from a "rookie" this season than what is expected of him.  That's because no one has ever had a run like Arozarena had in the 2020 postseason.  Acquired before the 2020 season in a prospect-for-prospect trade, Arozarena shocked everyone with the production he gave this lineup down the stretch.  He became the heart of their lineup, and at times in the playoffs, he was the only bat actually producing runs.  Now everyone is wondering if he is the player that set postseason records or the player that entered 2020 outside the Rays' top 10 prospects.  Not only that, but the Rays need him to be the more productive version to stabilize their lineup and give them consistent middle-of-the-order production.  A lot to ask of a guy with only 23 regular season games at the big league level.

Most Important Pitcher

Tyler Glasnow

With the trade of Blake Snell, the Rays' starting rotation has a massive hole at the top of the rotation.  The pitcher most likely to fill that hole is Tyler Glasnow.  Glasnow has proven so far in his young career that he can be an ace of a staff and dominate any lineup.  With a team that relies so heavily on their bullpen like the Rays do, having one starter that can be leaned on to go deep in games is important.  Glasnow can be that pitcher in 2021.  The Rays must feel some level of vindication boasting a rotation this season with Tyler Glasnow and Chris Archer, two players that were traded for each other a few years ago.

Prospect to Watch

Wander Franco

The Rays not only are the defending American League champions, but they also have the best farm system in all of baseball.  Boasting 8 players in the Top 100 Prospects, six of them look like they could make a big league impact this season.  Included in that list are Randy Arozarena, Luis Patino (the centerpiece of the Blake Snell trade), and potential two-way player Brendan McKay.  These three, along with middle infielder Vidal Brujan and lefty Shane McClanahan, would all carry with them a high level of excitement on their own.  However, with the possible exception of Arozarena, they are all overshadowed by the top prospect in all of baseball.  Wander Franco has a chance to hit the big leagues this year, and be an instant star at age 20.  This switch-hitting shortstop is projected to be the best hitting prospect around, able to hit for average and power.  If he gets the opportunity to make his debut in 2021, everyone better be watching.

2021 Prediction

3rd in AL East

This is the last team I have missing the playoffs.  The Rays definitely do things differently, constantly building up their farm system so they can keep trading their stars before they get paid for more prospects.  It seems to be a system they have perfected.  Their lack of reliance on their starting pitchers and total reliance on their killer bullpen is also unique and trend-setting.  However, the end of their postseason run in 2020 showed that their bullpen can run out of steam.  Also, deep playoff runs means less recovery time for the next season, and even though the season was short, their pitching staff has a chance to struggle with the short turnaround and the full 162 being an option.  Add to all this the strength at the top of this division and what they have to compete with, I have the Rays just missing the playoffs.  I hope I'm wrong because they are always fascinating to watch at the least.

Fearless Prediction

Randy Arozarena will hit less home runs in 2021 than he did in 2020.

Randy Arozarena's hot start in 2020 led to 8 home runs in 23 regular season games and 10 more home runs in the playoffs, setting records.  Now everyone sees him coming.  I think Arozarena is due for a sophomore slump in 2021.  Look for the power numbers to decline significantly and maybe even warrant a trip down to AAA at some point in the season.  Then again, I could be wrong, and he could be a top 10 player in all of baseball.