2021 Pre-Season Profile: Tampa Bay Rays

 #11

The Tampa Bay Rays made it all the way to the World Series in 2020 before losing to the Dodgers.  Can this roster see the same level of success in a full season in 2021?

2020 Predictions

#2 - 1st in AL East, lose in World Series

MIH - Austin Meadows

MIP - Blake Snell

PTW - Brendan McKay

2020 Results

#2 - 40-20, 1st in AL East, lost in World Series

I was pretty excited when I realized I successfully predicted the World Series teams and result.  The Rays rode their insane bullpen and deep roster built for playing the matchup game all the way to the Fall Classic before losing to the Dodger juggernaut.  It really felt like the Rays started to run out of steam at the wrong time.  So, they pulled their ace starter while he was dealing.  Sorry, pulling Snell in that last game still makes no sense.

Additions / Subtractions

Speaking of Blake Snell, one of the biggest storylines of the offseason was the Rays unloading Blake Snell to the Padres for a haul of prospects.  Charlie Morton also signed elsewhere, leaving a couple holes in the rotation.  They filled these holes, at least to start the season, with Chris Archer, Rich Hill, and Collin McHugh.  As far as the lineup is concerned, outside of letting Hunter Renfroe sign elsewhere, they are entering 2021 with the same lineup they ended 2020 with.

Most Important Hitter

Randy Arozarena

Randy Arozarena is technically still a prospect with rookie status in tact, however I don't know if more is expected from a "rookie" this season than what is expected of him.  That's because no one has ever had a run like Arozarena had in the 2020 postseason.  Acquired before the 2020 season in a prospect-for-prospect trade, Arozarena shocked everyone with the production he gave this lineup down the stretch.  He became the heart of their lineup, and at times in the playoffs, he was the only bat actually producing runs.  Now everyone is wondering if he is the player that set postseason records or the player that entered 2020 outside the Rays' top 10 prospects.  Not only that, but the Rays need him to be the more productive version to stabilize their lineup and give them consistent middle-of-the-order production.  A lot to ask of a guy with only 23 regular season games at the big league level.

Most Important Pitcher

Tyler Glasnow

With the trade of Blake Snell, the Rays' starting rotation has a massive hole at the top of the rotation.  The pitcher most likely to fill that hole is Tyler Glasnow.  Glasnow has proven so far in his young career that he can be an ace of a staff and dominate any lineup.  With a team that relies so heavily on their bullpen like the Rays do, having one starter that can be leaned on to go deep in games is important.  Glasnow can be that pitcher in 2021.  The Rays must feel some level of vindication boasting a rotation this season with Tyler Glasnow and Chris Archer, two players that were traded for each other a few years ago.

Prospect to Watch

Wander Franco

The Rays not only are the defending American League champions, but they also have the best farm system in all of baseball.  Boasting 8 players in the Top 100 Prospects, six of them look like they could make a big league impact this season.  Included in that list are Randy Arozarena, Luis Patino (the centerpiece of the Blake Snell trade), and potential two-way player Brendan McKay.  These three, along with middle infielder Vidal Brujan and lefty Shane McClanahan, would all carry with them a high level of excitement on their own.  However, with the possible exception of Arozarena, they are all overshadowed by the top prospect in all of baseball.  Wander Franco has a chance to hit the big leagues this year, and be an instant star at age 20.  This switch-hitting shortstop is projected to be the best hitting prospect around, able to hit for average and power.  If he gets the opportunity to make his debut in 2021, everyone better be watching.

2021 Prediction

3rd in AL East

This is the last team I have missing the playoffs.  The Rays definitely do things differently, constantly building up their farm system so they can keep trading their stars before they get paid for more prospects.  It seems to be a system they have perfected.  Their lack of reliance on their starting pitchers and total reliance on their killer bullpen is also unique and trend-setting.  However, the end of their postseason run in 2020 showed that their bullpen can run out of steam.  Also, deep playoff runs means less recovery time for the next season, and even though the season was short, their pitching staff has a chance to struggle with the short turnaround and the full 162 being an option.  Add to all this the strength at the top of this division and what they have to compete with, I have the Rays just missing the playoffs.  I hope I'm wrong because they are always fascinating to watch at the least.

Fearless Prediction

Randy Arozarena will hit less home runs in 2021 than he did in 2020.

Randy Arozarena's hot start in 2020 led to 8 home runs in 23 regular season games and 10 more home runs in the playoffs, setting records.  Now everyone sees him coming.  I think Arozarena is due for a sophomore slump in 2021.  Look for the power numbers to decline significantly and maybe even warrant a trip down to AAA at some point in the season.  Then again, I could be wrong, and he could be a top 10 player in all of baseball.

2019 Pre-Season Profile: Tampa Bay Rays

#17

The Tampa Bay Rays made many headlines in 2018.  They were the first to try the "Opener," and they rode its success to being one of the biggest surprises of the season.  Will they repeat that success in 2019?

2018 Predictions

5th in AL East

Chris Archer and Kevin Kiermaier will be traded mid-season.

2018 Results

90-72, 3rd in AL East

Of all my predictions last season, this one was furthest from what actually happened.  I saw all the moves before the 2018 season as a sign of a rebuild.  Instead, they turned it into the latest Rays roster that somehow succeeds so much more than it ever should.  The Opener was criticized, but it worked.  Then, even with the Opener, one of their regular starters, Blake Snell, ended up winning the Cy Young.  Their moves throughout the season were some strange combination of buying and selling.  Trading away closer Alex Colome and veteran outfielder Denard Span, then acquiring outfielder Tommy Pham.  The big move was the trade of Chris Archer, which was the one thing I got right.  The package brought back from the Pirates for Archer actually made them better, giving them a solid starter and outfielder (Tyler Glasnow and Austin Meadows) who were both ready for their opportunity to break out.  2018 just showed once again that the Rays are just smarter than everyone else.

Additions / Subtractions

The Rays offseason was exactly what you would expect: under the radar yet bizarrely effective.  They traded young outfielder Mallex Smith to the Mariners for starting catcher Mike Zunino.  They traded first baseman Jake Bauers for Yandy Diaz, another first baseman.  The Rays also made a small splash in free agency, signing starting pitcher Charlie Morton and outfielder Avisail Garcia.  Like I said, the moves look minor, however all of them seem fitting and quite helpful in rounding out this roster.

Most Important Hitter

Tommy Pham

In 2017, Tommy Pham had a huge breakout season for the Cardinals.  Then in 2018, he was a huge disappointment in St. Louis.  At the Trade Deadline, the Rays made the surprising move of buying low on Pham, hoping he could get back to his 2017 form.  For the last few months of last season, that is exactly what he did.  In 39 games in Tampa last year, Pham hit .343 with 7 homers and 22 RBI's, resulting in a 194 OPS+ after just having a 99 OPS+ with St. Louis.  The Rays are now looking at Pham as an anchor and veteran presence in their emerging lineup.  The question is which Tommy Pham will show up in 2019?

Most Important Pitcher

Charlie Morton

Charlie Morton is entering his 12th season in the big leagues and is finally being viewed as elite.  Before 2017, Morton only posted two seasons above average (according to ERA+), topping out at 109 in 2013.  Then he ended up in Houston where his ERA+ was 113 in 2017 and 129 in 2018.  He was the one on the mound to close out the World Series in 2017, and then he made his first All Star team in 2018.  Entering his age 35 season, some saw the 2 year $30 million deal with the Rays as a surprise, not because Morton didn't deserve the pay day, but because of the Rays use of the Opener.  Morton is a tried and true starter that will put up at least 150 innings.  It also shows that the Rays use of the Opener may have been more out of necessity than anything.  They want starters, and they are hoping Morton can partner up with Blake Snell as a lethal 1-2 punch at the top of their rotation.  The question is can Morton continue his success now that he has transferred to a different orange juice, moving from Minute Maid Park in Houston to Tropicana Field in Tampa.

Prospect to Watch

Brent Honeywell

I was really looking forward to profiling Brent Honeywell on last year's article for the Rays.  He is an exciting player with electric stuff that includes a screwball (who does that?!?).  In 2017, he was the starting pitcher for the US team in the Futures Game, winning the MVP award for the game.  The hype was real!  Then he went down with Tommy John at the very start of the 2018 Spring Training.  He isn't expected to start pitching competitively until May or June, but if all goes well he could show up on the roster for a possible September playoff push.  Either way, look at him to for sure be added to the small group of actual starting pitchers in 2020.

2019 Prediction

3rd in AL East

Look for the Rays to end up in a similar position as last season.  They may not reach the 90 win mark again, but they will be the lone team on the second tier of the AL East.  They don't have what it takes to compete with the Yankees and Red Sox, but that doesn't mean they won't be competitive.  As last year, they will compete for a Wild Card spot, but look for them to once again come up short.

Fearless Prediction

Mike Zunino will hit over 30 home runs in 2019.

As a Mariners fan, I have spent the last six seasons waiting for Mike Zunino to finally put it all together and become the perennial All Star that his potential showed when he was selected 3rd overall in the 2012 Draft.  As soon as he was traded to the Rays, I knew that promise was going to get a lot closer to being fulfilled.  He grew up in Florida, went to the University of Florida, and now is back home.  Plus, he seems like the type of guy that a change of scenery will be good for, especially a change into a more hitter friendly park.  Look for his power to show up in a greater way than ever before.

2017 Pre-Season Profile: Tampa Bay Rays

#18

The Tampa Bay Rays, who normally run a strict course of mediocrity, really struggled in 2016, hitting the cellar in the division for the first time since 2007, when they were still the Devil Rays.  Will 2017 bring about more of the same or open them back up to the middle of the pack?

My 2016 Predictions

3rd in AL East

Chris Archer will start the 2016 All Star Game.

2016 Results

68-94, 5th in AL East

The Tampa Bay Rays took a trip down to the cellar in 2016, Kevin Cash's second season as manager.  They continued to ride their fine line of competing while rebuilding, trading away guys like Matt Moore mid-season for prospects.  They are hoping that they can work their way back up the division in 2017.

Additions / Subtractions

The Rays traded away several key pieces to their team this offseason, including Logan Forsythe and Drew Smyly.  They also made some very interesting free agency pick-ups in catcher Wilson Ramos and outfielder Colby Rasmus.  These will definitely upgrade an offense that always tends to struggle.

Most Important Hitter

Brad Miller

Through a rough 2016 season, one of the bright spots was Brad Miller, who finally found his stroke at the big league level.  He hit 30 home runs with 81 RBI's.  However, he had a .243 average at the same time.  The Rays are moving him full-time to second base with the departure of Forsythe and arrival of Matt Duffy in the Moore trade.  If the Rays' offense is going to improve this season, they need Brad Miller to take another step forward instead of regress back and prove last year was a fluke.

Most Important Pitcher

Chris Archer

My Fearless Prediction for the Rays last year may have been one of the worst beats I had in 2016.  Chris Archer was set up to become a superstar last year.  Instead, he struggled to a 9-19 record, sporting a 4.02 ERA.  His 1.8 WAR was the worst of his career.  If the current incarnation of the Rays have any chance of succeeding, Chris Archer needs to become the ace they have been expecting him to be.  This will either give them the frontline starter they need or another piece to trade away and build for the future (which they almost did this offseason even after that abysmal season).

Player to Watch

Jose De Leon

I don't understand how the Rays do it.  They are constantly reinventing themselves, trading away pieces they can't afford anymore for the next generation of Rays stars.  The Logan Forsythe trade this offseason is a perfect example.  Forsythe worked his way up to being one of the best second basemen in the game.  When they traded him to the Dodgers, he required a high asking price.  The centerpiece of the package brought back was Jose De Leon, a 24 year old pitcher ready to burst on the scene.  Watch for him to take his place among the long list of All Star pitchers that first made a name of themselves on the Rays.

2017 Prediction

4th in AL East

You can't keep the Rays down for long.  I'm not saying they are going to compete in the AL East, but they will find their way out of the cellar.  What makes the Rays different than so many other teams is their pitching.  Even with Matt Moore traded and Chris Archer falling apart, the Rays sported one of the deepest starting rotations in the league.  This year is no different.  Guys like Jake Odorizzi and Alex Cobb could be aces for any other team (and might soon be that).  Blake Snell is a phenom ready to be a star.  If their offense can do anything, they should be able to carry a .500 record.  If they don't, Kevin Cash will be looking for another job as early as June.

Fearless Prediction

Jake Odorizzi and Alex Cobb will be traded mid-season.

Like I said, the great thing about the Rays is their ability to re-invent themselves.  Along with De Leon, they have several other pitchers ready to burst on the scene either this year or next (4 of their top 10 prospects).  They need to clear some roster space for this to happen.  Look for Odorizzi, Cobb, and maybe even Chris Archer to be moved this season to make room for the next set of young guys.  Instead of Archer, Cobb, and Odorizzi, you will be hearing about De Leon, Honeywell, and Hu by the end of the year.

2015 Pre-Season Profile: Tampa Bay Rays

Joe Maddon managed the Tampa Bay Rays for nine seasons, leading them to their first six winning seasons and a World Series appearance.  Now that Maddon has moved on, can the Rays continue their winning ways.

Last Season

77-85, 4th in AL East

For the first time since his first two seasons as manager, Joe Maddon's Rays finished with a losing record.  They have always found ways of overachieving year after year under Maddon even with the poor business plan of the Rays.  They would develop their young players, and then trade them right before they are about to cash in with a big contract (except for Evan Longoria).  It's no wonder Joe Maddon left Tampa when he had the chance, especially after the team decided to trade away ace David Price instead of try and lock him up long term.  All this selling of their best players left the Rays with one of their least talented rosters in years.  It's a miracle their record was as good as it was.

2015 Additions / Subtractions

The Rays continued their selling of their veterans in the offseason.  Leaving the Rays via trade this offseason were Yunel Escobar, Ben Zobrist, Matt Joyce, Jeremy Hellickson, Sean Rodriguez, and 2013 Rookie of the Year Wil Myers.  The only players ready to impact the club now that were brought in were Asdrubal Cabrera and John Jaso.  Eventually, the Rays might see a return for their investments, but it will be a few years down the line.

Most Important Hitter

Desmond Jennings

Desmond Jennings has been poised to have a breakout season for several years now.  In fact, the fact that he hasn't had his big breakout year is probably the reason he is still a Ray since every other good player has been traded.  However, this is a very talented player and hitter that has the potential of being an impact bat in the Rays' lineup.  As one of the few returning players from last year's lineup, he is also, along with Evan Longoria, taking on some veteran leadership responsibilities of the remembering the winning ways of the Rays.

Most Important Pitcher

Chris Archer

The Rays have always been carried by a great pitching staff.  However, with former cornerstones of the rotation like James Shields, Matt Garza, and David Price gone, the Rays need the next generation of pitching stars to emerge.  With Alex Cobb starting the season on the DL, this responsibility fall squarely on the shoulders of Chris Archer.  Archer followed his rookie season with a solid performance in 2014.  Now the Rays are counting on him to be the new ace of the staff moving forward ... at least for 3 years or so before they trade him too.

Player to Watch

Steven Souza

Steven Souza is a perfect example of the Rays' gameplan in forming their roster.  Souza was acquired this offseason in the Wil Myers trade.  By trading away a current star, the Rays were able to bring in a potential future star.  Souza is penciled in to be the Rays' staring rightfielder on Opening Day.  Expect him to be the next breakout guy on the trading block for the Rays.

Prediction

5th in AL East

If any team is going to finish with 100+ wins this season, it is going to be the Tampa Bay Rays.  This is one of the least talented teams they have fielded in a very long time (outside of the pitching rotation, which might be the only reason they don't lose 100 games), and losing Joe Maddon is going to show as this club will not overachieve as previous young rosters have.  I am not saying rookie manager Kevin Cash is going to be a bad coach, but he just isn't Joe Maddon.  Maddon seemed to pull off a magic trick every year in Tampa, and with him moving on the team will take a step back no matter who is managing.  They might as well go back to being the Devil Rays because they will be that forgettable.