2017 Pre-Season Profile: Tampa Bay Rays

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The Tampa Bay Rays, who normally run a strict course of mediocrity, really struggled in 2016, hitting the cellar in the division for the first time since 2007, when they were still the Devil Rays.  Will 2017 bring about more of the same or open them back up to the middle of the pack?

My 2016 Predictions

3rd in AL East

Chris Archer will start the 2016 All Star Game.

2016 Results

68-94, 5th in AL East

The Tampa Bay Rays took a trip down to the cellar in 2016, Kevin Cash's second season as manager.  They continued to ride their fine line of competing while rebuilding, trading away guys like Matt Moore mid-season for prospects.  They are hoping that they can work their way back up the division in 2017.

Additions / Subtractions

The Rays traded away several key pieces to their team this offseason, including Logan Forsythe and Drew Smyly.  They also made some very interesting free agency pick-ups in catcher Wilson Ramos and outfielder Colby Rasmus.  These will definitely upgrade an offense that always tends to struggle.

Most Important Hitter

Brad Miller

Through a rough 2016 season, one of the bright spots was Brad Miller, who finally found his stroke at the big league level.  He hit 30 home runs with 81 RBI's.  However, he had a .243 average at the same time.  The Rays are moving him full-time to second base with the departure of Forsythe and arrival of Matt Duffy in the Moore trade.  If the Rays' offense is going to improve this season, they need Brad Miller to take another step forward instead of regress back and prove last year was a fluke.

Most Important Pitcher

Chris Archer

My Fearless Prediction for the Rays last year may have been one of the worst beats I had in 2016.  Chris Archer was set up to become a superstar last year.  Instead, he struggled to a 9-19 record, sporting a 4.02 ERA.  His 1.8 WAR was the worst of his career.  If the current incarnation of the Rays have any chance of succeeding, Chris Archer needs to become the ace they have been expecting him to be.  This will either give them the frontline starter they need or another piece to trade away and build for the future (which they almost did this offseason even after that abysmal season).

Player to Watch

Jose De Leon

I don't understand how the Rays do it.  They are constantly reinventing themselves, trading away pieces they can't afford anymore for the next generation of Rays stars.  The Logan Forsythe trade this offseason is a perfect example.  Forsythe worked his way up to being one of the best second basemen in the game.  When they traded him to the Dodgers, he required a high asking price.  The centerpiece of the package brought back was Jose De Leon, a 24 year old pitcher ready to burst on the scene.  Watch for him to take his place among the long list of All Star pitchers that first made a name of themselves on the Rays.

2017 Prediction

4th in AL East

You can't keep the Rays down for long.  I'm not saying they are going to compete in the AL East, but they will find their way out of the cellar.  What makes the Rays different than so many other teams is their pitching.  Even with Matt Moore traded and Chris Archer falling apart, the Rays sported one of the deepest starting rotations in the league.  This year is no different.  Guys like Jake Odorizzi and Alex Cobb could be aces for any other team (and might soon be that).  Blake Snell is a phenom ready to be a star.  If their offense can do anything, they should be able to carry a .500 record.  If they don't, Kevin Cash will be looking for another job as early as June.

Fearless Prediction

Jake Odorizzi and Alex Cobb will be traded mid-season.

Like I said, the great thing about the Rays is their ability to re-invent themselves.  Along with De Leon, they have several other pitchers ready to burst on the scene either this year or next (4 of their top 10 prospects).  They need to clear some roster space for this to happen.  Look for Odorizzi, Cobb, and maybe even Chris Archer to be moved this season to make room for the next set of young guys.  Instead of Archer, Cobb, and Odorizzi, you will be hearing about De Leon, Honeywell, and Hu by the end of the year.

2016 Pre-Season Profile: Tampa Bay Rays

Somehow, the Tampa Bay Rays defy the odds every year and have a solid season with whatever roster is put on the field.  Last season was no exception.  Will 2016 bring more of the same?

Last Season

My 2015 Prediction: 5th in AL East

2015 Result: 80-82, 4th in AL East

Every season, the Rays look like the last talented team in their division.  Every season, they over-achieve and play better than anyone expects with their talent level and payroll.  This is partially because of a strong pitching staff that seems to replenish itself every year with new young talent.  Although they finished fourth, this was only because of the immense competition in the AL East.  They easily could have ended up a slot or two higher.

2016 Additions / Subtractions

As with every Tampa Bay offseason, it was highlighted by low-level moves that could make a huge impact.  They picked up Logan Morrison, Brad Miller, and Danny Farquhar is a trade with Seattle, and then added Corey Dickerson in a trade with Colorado for Jake McGee.  The subtraction list is very short, mainly losing low-level players that the acquisitions replaced.

Most Important Hitter

Evan Longoria

It feels like Evan Longoria has been around forever, however he is only entering his age 30 season.  He has gone from being one of the best third basemen in the league to fairly mediocre in the last few years (6 WAR in 2013, 3 WAR in 2014 and 2015).  For the Rays to be back in playoff consideration, the one player they were willing to commit to long term has to start playing again like the MVP-caliber player he once was.

Most Important Pitcher

Matt Moore

Matt Moore was one of the next generation of Tampa Bay pitchers to dominate the league.  After an All-Star appearance in 2013, his progress was put on hold by Tommy John surgery in 2014.  He came back to only make 12 starts in 2015.  He needs to be back to full strength in 2016 for the Rays to have any success.

Player to Watch

Blake Snell

Like I said, Tampa Bay is known for the constant carousel of young pitchers.  The next in that line to arrive this season will be Blake Snell.  This lefty is the 14th best prospect in all of baseball and should be ready to make an impact at some point in 2016.

2016 Prediction

3rd in AL East

The Rays always seem to over-achieve and compete in the very competitive AL East.  The young core of pitching will always keep them competitive.  Some upgrades to their offense should help keep this team right around .500 again in 2016 as they show they are not in the cellar, but also not elite.

Fearless Prediction

Chris Archer will start the 2016 All Star Game.

One part of the Rays' roster that is elite is Chris Archer.  He is quickly turning into possibly the best of all the pitchers to come through Tampa Bay (yes, that includes David Price).  He has all the skills to be one of the league's elite pitchers, and he has the personality to be considered a true superstar.  Look for Archer to come out and have a phenomenal start that leads to potentially the start in the All Star Game.