2018 Pre-Season Profile: Tampa Bay Rays

#27

The Tampa Bay Rays were very active late in the offseason in a way which left many scratching their head.  Will they be able to compete in 2018 after some of the more recent developments?

2017 Predictions

4th in AL East

Jake Odorizzi and Alex Cobb will be traded mid-season.

2017 Result

80-82, 3rd in AL East

Somehow, every year the Rays find a way to be relevant no matter what their roster looks like.  2017 seemed to be no exception as they almost finished .500 while spending minimum money.  This was mainly behind their incredibly strong pitching staff.  As for my Fearless Prediction, I was right but I just jumped the gun a little.

Additions / Subtractions

This is where the headlines were made this offseason for the Rays.  The Rays either traded or did not re-sign 5 of their top 6 players last year in WAR (Steven Souza, Logan Morrison, Evan Longoria, Corey Dickerson, and Alex Cobb).  They also traded Jake Odorizzi to the Twins.  The only additions to the current roster seem to be inconsequential, with players like C.J. Cron, Denard Span, and Carlos Gomez taking the spots of former Rays mainstays.  This offseason reshaped the Rays unlike any offseason in the franchise's history.

Most Important Hitter

Kevin Kiermaier

The one player in the Rays' top 6 in WAR that is still on the roster is Kevin Kiermaier, who happened to be first on that list.  The Rays' centerfielder is still considered one of the best defenders in the game, and his bat last year started to catch up with his glove.  However, he was also the most outspoken on the roster about his disapproval with the roster moves.  He is going to produce as always, but will he be a cancer in the clubhouse?  His attitude more than his production could help determine what kind of season the Rays have.

Most Important Pitcher

Blake Snell

Even with losing Odorizzi and Cobb, the Rays' rotation has always been their strength, and this year was to be no different.  However, with the losses of phenom Jose De Leon and top prospect Brent Honeywell in Spring Training (both to Tommy John), this once stellar position is now looking a little thin.  The key to their success this year is Blake Snell.  The Rays' former top prospect, Snell is now entering his third year of big league service.  He has been a serviceable starter, but has yet to become the ace everyone was anticipating.  This rotation is topped by Chris Archer, but Snell taking a big step forward would give them one of the best righty/lefty combinations at the top of the rotation in the league.  It could also help make up for what might be a struggling offense.

Prospect to Watch

Willy Adames

I was really looking forward to talking about Brent Honeywell here because I think he is going to be a star, but that will have to wait another year or two now.  The Rays have a very strong farm system, and it is topped by Honeywell and Willy Adames.  Yes, the Rays have prospects that are not pitchers.  Adames has the potential to join the current group of superstar shortstops in the league over the next few years.  If 2018 falls apart, Adames might get his chance to show what he can do sooner rather than later.

2018 Prediction

5th in AL East

This has been such a strange offseason.  Even though we are well into Spring Training, moves are still being made that have major impacts on teams.  I originally said the Rays would finish 3rd in the AL East.  They always seem to find a way to compete no matter what their roster looks like.  Then they traded Steven Souza.  Then they traded Jake Odorizzi.  Then they traded Corey Dickerson.  Then De Leon and Honeywell were out for the season.  In a week or two of Spring Training, they went from being able to compete at .500 baseball again to probably being irrelevant this season.  I hope I am wrong.  Baseball is always more interesting when teams like the Rays and the A's continue to find ways to compete.

Fearless Prediction

Chris Archer and Kevin Kiermaier will be traded mid-season.

Kiermaier is obviously frustrated and wants out of Tampa.  He has been very vocal about that.  Although Archer hasn't been as vocal, there have been trade rumors surrounding him more than any other Ray all offseason.  There is no point in trading away all the talent they did unless you truly start over and trade your most valuable assets.  Kiermaier and Archer are young enough to anchor the new wave, but they will want to compete before then.  Look for them to be at the center of the rumor mill come Trade Deadline in July.

2017 Pre-Season Profile: Tampa Bay Rays

#18

The Tampa Bay Rays, who normally run a strict course of mediocrity, really struggled in 2016, hitting the cellar in the division for the first time since 2007, when they were still the Devil Rays.  Will 2017 bring about more of the same or open them back up to the middle of the pack?

My 2016 Predictions

3rd in AL East

Chris Archer will start the 2016 All Star Game.

2016 Results

68-94, 5th in AL East

The Tampa Bay Rays took a trip down to the cellar in 2016, Kevin Cash's second season as manager.  They continued to ride their fine line of competing while rebuilding, trading away guys like Matt Moore mid-season for prospects.  They are hoping that they can work their way back up the division in 2017.

Additions / Subtractions

The Rays traded away several key pieces to their team this offseason, including Logan Forsythe and Drew Smyly.  They also made some very interesting free agency pick-ups in catcher Wilson Ramos and outfielder Colby Rasmus.  These will definitely upgrade an offense that always tends to struggle.

Most Important Hitter

Brad Miller

Through a rough 2016 season, one of the bright spots was Brad Miller, who finally found his stroke at the big league level.  He hit 30 home runs with 81 RBI's.  However, he had a .243 average at the same time.  The Rays are moving him full-time to second base with the departure of Forsythe and arrival of Matt Duffy in the Moore trade.  If the Rays' offense is going to improve this season, they need Brad Miller to take another step forward instead of regress back and prove last year was a fluke.

Most Important Pitcher

Chris Archer

My Fearless Prediction for the Rays last year may have been one of the worst beats I had in 2016.  Chris Archer was set up to become a superstar last year.  Instead, he struggled to a 9-19 record, sporting a 4.02 ERA.  His 1.8 WAR was the worst of his career.  If the current incarnation of the Rays have any chance of succeeding, Chris Archer needs to become the ace they have been expecting him to be.  This will either give them the frontline starter they need or another piece to trade away and build for the future (which they almost did this offseason even after that abysmal season).

Player to Watch

Jose De Leon

I don't understand how the Rays do it.  They are constantly reinventing themselves, trading away pieces they can't afford anymore for the next generation of Rays stars.  The Logan Forsythe trade this offseason is a perfect example.  Forsythe worked his way up to being one of the best second basemen in the game.  When they traded him to the Dodgers, he required a high asking price.  The centerpiece of the package brought back was Jose De Leon, a 24 year old pitcher ready to burst on the scene.  Watch for him to take his place among the long list of All Star pitchers that first made a name of themselves on the Rays.

2017 Prediction

4th in AL East

You can't keep the Rays down for long.  I'm not saying they are going to compete in the AL East, but they will find their way out of the cellar.  What makes the Rays different than so many other teams is their pitching.  Even with Matt Moore traded and Chris Archer falling apart, the Rays sported one of the deepest starting rotations in the league.  This year is no different.  Guys like Jake Odorizzi and Alex Cobb could be aces for any other team (and might soon be that).  Blake Snell is a phenom ready to be a star.  If their offense can do anything, they should be able to carry a .500 record.  If they don't, Kevin Cash will be looking for another job as early as June.

Fearless Prediction

Jake Odorizzi and Alex Cobb will be traded mid-season.

Like I said, the great thing about the Rays is their ability to re-invent themselves.  Along with De Leon, they have several other pitchers ready to burst on the scene either this year or next (4 of their top 10 prospects).  They need to clear some roster space for this to happen.  Look for Odorizzi, Cobb, and maybe even Chris Archer to be moved this season to make room for the next set of young guys.  Instead of Archer, Cobb, and Odorizzi, you will be hearing about De Leon, Honeywell, and Hu by the end of the year.