#17
The Tampa Bay Rays made many headlines in 2018. They were the first to try the "Opener," and they rode its success to being one of the biggest surprises of the season. Will they repeat that success in 2019?
2018 Predictions
5th in AL East
Chris Archer and Kevin Kiermaier will be traded mid-season.
2018 Results
90-72, 3rd in AL East
Of all my predictions last season, this one was furthest from what actually happened. I saw all the moves before the 2018 season as a sign of a rebuild. Instead, they turned it into the latest Rays roster that somehow succeeds so much more than it ever should. The Opener was criticized, but it worked. Then, even with the Opener, one of their regular starters, Blake Snell, ended up winning the Cy Young. Their moves throughout the season were some strange combination of buying and selling. Trading away closer Alex Colome and veteran outfielder Denard Span, then acquiring outfielder Tommy Pham. The big move was the trade of Chris Archer, which was the one thing I got right. The package brought back from the Pirates for Archer actually made them better, giving them a solid starter and outfielder (Tyler Glasnow and Austin Meadows) who were both ready for their opportunity to break out. 2018 just showed once again that the Rays are just smarter than everyone else.
Additions / Subtractions
The Rays offseason was exactly what you would expect: under the radar yet bizarrely effective. They traded young outfielder Mallex Smith to the Mariners for starting catcher Mike Zunino. They traded first baseman Jake Bauers for Yandy Diaz, another first baseman. The Rays also made a small splash in free agency, signing starting pitcher Charlie Morton and outfielder Avisail Garcia. Like I said, the moves look minor, however all of them seem fitting and quite helpful in rounding out this roster.
Most Important Hitter
Tommy Pham
In 2017, Tommy Pham had a huge breakout season for the Cardinals. Then in 2018, he was a huge disappointment in St. Louis. At the Trade Deadline, the Rays made the surprising move of buying low on Pham, hoping he could get back to his 2017 form. For the last few months of last season, that is exactly what he did. In 39 games in Tampa last year, Pham hit .343 with 7 homers and 22 RBI's, resulting in a 194 OPS+ after just having a 99 OPS+ with St. Louis. The Rays are now looking at Pham as an anchor and veteran presence in their emerging lineup. The question is which Tommy Pham will show up in 2019?
Most Important Pitcher
Charlie Morton
Charlie Morton is entering his 12th season in the big leagues and is finally being viewed as elite. Before 2017, Morton only posted two seasons above average (according to ERA+), topping out at 109 in 2013. Then he ended up in Houston where his ERA+ was 113 in 2017 and 129 in 2018. He was the one on the mound to close out the World Series in 2017, and then he made his first All Star team in 2018. Entering his age 35 season, some saw the 2 year $30 million deal with the Rays as a surprise, not because Morton didn't deserve the pay day, but because of the Rays use of the Opener. Morton is a tried and true starter that will put up at least 150 innings. It also shows that the Rays use of the Opener may have been more out of necessity than anything. They want starters, and they are hoping Morton can partner up with Blake Snell as a lethal 1-2 punch at the top of their rotation. The question is can Morton continue his success now that he has transferred to a different orange juice, moving from Minute Maid Park in Houston to Tropicana Field in Tampa.
Prospect to Watch
Brent Honeywell
I was really looking forward to profiling Brent Honeywell on last year's article for the Rays. He is an exciting player with electric stuff that includes a screwball (who does that?!?). In 2017, he was the starting pitcher for the US team in the Futures Game, winning the MVP award for the game. The hype was real! Then he went down with Tommy John at the very start of the 2018 Spring Training. He isn't expected to start pitching competitively until May or June, but if all goes well he could show up on the roster for a possible September playoff push. Either way, look at him to for sure be added to the small group of actual starting pitchers in 2020.
2019 Prediction
3rd in AL East
Look for the Rays to end up in a similar position as last season. They may not reach the 90 win mark again, but they will be the lone team on the second tier of the AL East. They don't have what it takes to compete with the Yankees and Red Sox, but that doesn't mean they won't be competitive. As last year, they will compete for a Wild Card spot, but look for them to once again come up short.
Fearless Prediction
Mike Zunino will hit over 30 home runs in 2019.
As a Mariners fan, I have spent the last six seasons waiting for Mike Zunino to finally put it all together and become the perennial All Star that his potential showed when he was selected 3rd overall in the 2012 Draft. As soon as he was traded to the Rays, I knew that promise was going to get a lot closer to being fulfilled. He grew up in Florida, went to the University of Florida, and now is back home. Plus, he seems like the type of guy that a change of scenery will be good for, especially a change into a more hitter friendly park. Look for his power to show up in a greater way than ever before.
