2019 Pre-Season Profile: Tampa Bay Rays

#17

The Tampa Bay Rays made many headlines in 2018.  They were the first to try the "Opener," and they rode its success to being one of the biggest surprises of the season.  Will they repeat that success in 2019?

2018 Predictions

5th in AL East

Chris Archer and Kevin Kiermaier will be traded mid-season.

2018 Results

90-72, 3rd in AL East

Of all my predictions last season, this one was furthest from what actually happened.  I saw all the moves before the 2018 season as a sign of a rebuild.  Instead, they turned it into the latest Rays roster that somehow succeeds so much more than it ever should.  The Opener was criticized, but it worked.  Then, even with the Opener, one of their regular starters, Blake Snell, ended up winning the Cy Young.  Their moves throughout the season were some strange combination of buying and selling.  Trading away closer Alex Colome and veteran outfielder Denard Span, then acquiring outfielder Tommy Pham.  The big move was the trade of Chris Archer, which was the one thing I got right.  The package brought back from the Pirates for Archer actually made them better, giving them a solid starter and outfielder (Tyler Glasnow and Austin Meadows) who were both ready for their opportunity to break out.  2018 just showed once again that the Rays are just smarter than everyone else.

Additions / Subtractions

The Rays offseason was exactly what you would expect: under the radar yet bizarrely effective.  They traded young outfielder Mallex Smith to the Mariners for starting catcher Mike Zunino.  They traded first baseman Jake Bauers for Yandy Diaz, another first baseman.  The Rays also made a small splash in free agency, signing starting pitcher Charlie Morton and outfielder Avisail Garcia.  Like I said, the moves look minor, however all of them seem fitting and quite helpful in rounding out this roster.

Most Important Hitter

Tommy Pham

In 2017, Tommy Pham had a huge breakout season for the Cardinals.  Then in 2018, he was a huge disappointment in St. Louis.  At the Trade Deadline, the Rays made the surprising move of buying low on Pham, hoping he could get back to his 2017 form.  For the last few months of last season, that is exactly what he did.  In 39 games in Tampa last year, Pham hit .343 with 7 homers and 22 RBI's, resulting in a 194 OPS+ after just having a 99 OPS+ with St. Louis.  The Rays are now looking at Pham as an anchor and veteran presence in their emerging lineup.  The question is which Tommy Pham will show up in 2019?

Most Important Pitcher

Charlie Morton

Charlie Morton is entering his 12th season in the big leagues and is finally being viewed as elite.  Before 2017, Morton only posted two seasons above average (according to ERA+), topping out at 109 in 2013.  Then he ended up in Houston where his ERA+ was 113 in 2017 and 129 in 2018.  He was the one on the mound to close out the World Series in 2017, and then he made his first All Star team in 2018.  Entering his age 35 season, some saw the 2 year $30 million deal with the Rays as a surprise, not because Morton didn't deserve the pay day, but because of the Rays use of the Opener.  Morton is a tried and true starter that will put up at least 150 innings.  It also shows that the Rays use of the Opener may have been more out of necessity than anything.  They want starters, and they are hoping Morton can partner up with Blake Snell as a lethal 1-2 punch at the top of their rotation.  The question is can Morton continue his success now that he has transferred to a different orange juice, moving from Minute Maid Park in Houston to Tropicana Field in Tampa.

Prospect to Watch

Brent Honeywell

I was really looking forward to profiling Brent Honeywell on last year's article for the Rays.  He is an exciting player with electric stuff that includes a screwball (who does that?!?).  In 2017, he was the starting pitcher for the US team in the Futures Game, winning the MVP award for the game.  The hype was real!  Then he went down with Tommy John at the very start of the 2018 Spring Training.  He isn't expected to start pitching competitively until May or June, but if all goes well he could show up on the roster for a possible September playoff push.  Either way, look at him to for sure be added to the small group of actual starting pitchers in 2020.

2019 Prediction

3rd in AL East

Look for the Rays to end up in a similar position as last season.  They may not reach the 90 win mark again, but they will be the lone team on the second tier of the AL East.  They don't have what it takes to compete with the Yankees and Red Sox, but that doesn't mean they won't be competitive.  As last year, they will compete for a Wild Card spot, but look for them to once again come up short.

Fearless Prediction

Mike Zunino will hit over 30 home runs in 2019.

As a Mariners fan, I have spent the last six seasons waiting for Mike Zunino to finally put it all together and become the perennial All Star that his potential showed when he was selected 3rd overall in the 2012 Draft.  As soon as he was traded to the Rays, I knew that promise was going to get a lot closer to being fulfilled.  He grew up in Florida, went to the University of Florida, and now is back home.  Plus, he seems like the type of guy that a change of scenery will be good for, especially a change into a more hitter friendly park.  Look for his power to show up in a greater way than ever before.

2018 MLB Pre-Season Profiles: #15-11

These are the teams I am predicting will just miss the playoffs in 2018.  See who gets left out.

#15

Arizona Diamondbacks

Most Important Hitter: David Peralta

Most Important Pitcher: Robbie Ray

Prospect to Watch: Taylor Clarke

2018 Prediction: 4th in NL West

Bold Prediction: This will be Zack Greinke's last season in Arizona.

The Diamondbacks were a surprise playoff team in 2017, but they were propelled there by an other-worldly finish by J.D. Martinez.  Their biggest mistake was not adequately replacing him.  Steven Souza, Jr. is good, but not as good as J.D.  They will need increased production out of guys like David Peralta, A.J. Pollock, and Yasmany Tomas (who is currently in AAA) to pick up the slack.  Robbie Ray needs to repeat his All Star performance in 2018 to solidify a rotation headed by an aging Zack Greinke.  I could see the D-Backs moving on from him after this season to take the next step forward.

#14

Seattle Mariners

Most Important Hitter: Mike Zunino

Most Important Pitcher: James Paxton

Prospect to Watch: Max Povse

2018 Prediction: 3rd in AL West

Bold Prediction: Ichiro will be released by Memorial Day.

The Mariners have the longest playoff drought in professional sports, having last made the playoffs in 2001 when Ichiro was a rookie.  They have a shot at making it this year, but it all comes down to health.  James Paxton can be one of the best aces in the league if he can stay on the field.  King Felix can still be the King if he can stay healthy.  Mike Zunino finally showed off his bat in 2017, but needs to repeat the performance (instead, he is currently on the DL).  If healthy, they can compete with almost any team in the league.  Staying healthy will be a challenge though.  Ichiro was brought in because of their injuries (and a great story), but I don't see him lasting long at 44 years old.

#13

San Francisco Giants

Most Important Hitter: Andrew McCutchen

Most Important Pitcher: Madison Bumgarner

Prospect to Watch: Steven Duggar

2018 Prediction: 3rd in NL West

Bold Prediction: Half of the Giants' Opening Day roster will not be on the roster Opening Day 2019.

The Giants decided to take their aging roster and double down by adding more veterans (Andrew McCutchen, Evan Longoria) to try and make another run at the playoffs.  They are very interesting because of this.  If these two are able to rekindle some of their glory day magic, then the Giants will be a formidable foe this year.  If not, they will once again be disappointing.  Their farm system is terrible, and I could easily see them blowing up the roster at the end of the season if 2018 doesn't result in a postseason run.

#12

St. Louis Cardinals

Most Important Hitter: Tommy Pham

Most Important Pitcher: Michael Wacha

Prospect to Watch: Alex Reyes

2018 Prediction: 3rd in NL Central

Bold Prediction: The Cardinals will make at least one blockbuster trade at the Trade Deadline.

The Cardinals are not used to missing the playoffs, yet they have now missed the postseason two years in a row.  I am predicting this season will make it three.  They remade their outfield with Tommy Pham as the centerpiece, but he has fluke written all over him.  They have an ace in Carlos Martinez, but a guy like Michael Wacha needs to step up to give the rotation depth.  They lucked out by signing Greg Holland on Opening Day to anchor their bullpen, but it is still thin.  There are just too many questions.  One thing they do have is a lot of major league ready talent in the minors.  This is why they will be making a trade or two this year to try and turn around what could be a disappointing season for the Cardinals fans with such high standards.

#11

Minnesota Twins

Most Important Hitter: Byron Buxton

Most Important Pitcher: Fernando Rodney

Prospect to Watch: Nick Gordon

2018 Prediction: 2nd in AL Central

Bold Prediction: Byron Buxton will start in centerfield in the All Star Game.

The best team to miss the playoffs in 2018 will be the Twins.  They made a miraculous turnaround from worst team in the league to the Wild Card last season.  Now they will try and stay there.  A lot of offseason moves have really improved this roster.  Relying on Rodney to anchor your bullpen is stressful.  Buxton will be a superstar by the end of the season.  They will just come up a little short.

Stay tuned for the playoff teams!