2021 Pre-Season Profile: Atlanta Braves

 #6

The Atlanta Braves continued to show in 2020 that they are one of the best young teams in all of baseball, coming one win away from making the World Series.  Can they continue to take steps forward in 2021?

2020 Predictions

#10 - 2nd in NL East, WILD CARD, lose in Wild Card Game

MIH - Marcell Ozuna

MIP - Cole Hamels

PTW - Kyle Wright

2020 Results

#6 - 35-25, 1st in NL East, lost in NLCS

I thought 2020 was due to be a step back for the young Braves roster.  Instead, they leapt forward.  I thought Cole Hamels was going to be a factor, and he pitched one game.  Marcell Ozuna had a big year, but not as big as league MVP Freddie Freeman.  Their young pitching stepped up, and that was after Opening Day starter Mike Soroka went down with an injury in his third start.  This all just proved how talented this team truly is and how high their ceiling is going forward.

Additions / Subtractions

Despite the big 2020 season, the Braves still understand the need for some veteran pitching to mentor the young aces they are developing.  So they went out and picked up Drew Smyly and Charlie Morton to pitch alongside the kids.  The other big move was re-signing Marcell Ozuna.  The only real subtractions from the lineup were Adam Duvall leaving for the Marlins and the retirement of Nick Markakis, moves that made room in the lineup considering there is no DH this year.  They did lose some key bullpen arms in Mark Melancon and Darren O'Day.

Most Important Hitter

Dansby Swanson

The Braves' lineup is pretty loaded with stars.  From Freddie Freeman to Marcell Ozuna to possibly the best of them all in Ronald Acuna Jr., this lineup can produce runs.  The breakout star among stars last season was Dansby Swanson.  He put together his best season to date at the plate and trailed only Freeman and pitching phenom Max Fried on the team in WAR (his highest WAR mark of his career despite it only being a 60 game season).  The question is whether or not the former number one overall pick can replicate that level of production for a full 162.  If he can, he becomes yet another weapon opposing pitchers have to deal with in this lineup.

Most Important Pitcher

Will Smith

The Braves always have a plethora of starting pitching, but the real question mark this season is the bullpen.  Closer Mark Melancon and specialist Darren O'Day left this team in the offseason and weren't really replaced.  So who is the closer?  How will they end the brilliant games their starters will pitch?  The most likely option, and the option the Braves need to emerge, is Will Smith.  A former All Star closer with the Giants, Smith has shown he can be an impact arm at the end of a game, something no one else in the bullpen has really proven.  If he can establish himself as the guy, all the other arms in the pen can start to find their role.  If he can't, it might be bullpen by committee which rarely ever works.

Prospect to Watch

Cristian Pache

After a taste of the big leagues in 2020 as a 21 year old, Cristian Pache will be the Opening day starting centerfielder.  Ranked the 12th best prospect in baseball, Pache is an elite defender (which earned him a spot on the postseason roster last season) that is still learning how to be an impact bat in a lineup.  He has shown some great progress and could be the next great young star in the Braves lineup.

2021 Prediction

1st in NL East, lose in NLDS

Emerging from the mayhem of the NL East in 1st place is going to be no easy task, but the Braves seem to have the depth and the youth to do it.  With that said, I think come October some of that youth could hurt them from making a deep run this season, especially considering how strong some of the other contenders are.  It might be a quick exit, but the Braves are a powerhouse that are here to stay for awhile.

Fearless Prediction

Ronald Acuna Jr. wins the NL MVP.

Somehow, Ronald Acuna Jr. is just entering his age 23 season, and he has already established himself as a perennial MVP candidate.  He won Rookie of the Year in 2018, finished 5th in MVP in 2019, and finished 12th in MVP in 2020 despite missing some time with injury and his teammate taking first place.  This could be the year he emerges with the crown.  What will help him is the development of Cristian Pache so he doesn't have to play centerfield anymore.  Being in rightfield might be a little less taxing and might be able to preserve some health.  Either way, it should be a big year for Acuna.

2019 Pre-Season Profile: Tampa Bay Rays

#17

The Tampa Bay Rays made many headlines in 2018.  They were the first to try the "Opener," and they rode its success to being one of the biggest surprises of the season.  Will they repeat that success in 2019?

2018 Predictions

5th in AL East

Chris Archer and Kevin Kiermaier will be traded mid-season.

2018 Results

90-72, 3rd in AL East

Of all my predictions last season, this one was furthest from what actually happened.  I saw all the moves before the 2018 season as a sign of a rebuild.  Instead, they turned it into the latest Rays roster that somehow succeeds so much more than it ever should.  The Opener was criticized, but it worked.  Then, even with the Opener, one of their regular starters, Blake Snell, ended up winning the Cy Young.  Their moves throughout the season were some strange combination of buying and selling.  Trading away closer Alex Colome and veteran outfielder Denard Span, then acquiring outfielder Tommy Pham.  The big move was the trade of Chris Archer, which was the one thing I got right.  The package brought back from the Pirates for Archer actually made them better, giving them a solid starter and outfielder (Tyler Glasnow and Austin Meadows) who were both ready for their opportunity to break out.  2018 just showed once again that the Rays are just smarter than everyone else.

Additions / Subtractions

The Rays offseason was exactly what you would expect: under the radar yet bizarrely effective.  They traded young outfielder Mallex Smith to the Mariners for starting catcher Mike Zunino.  They traded first baseman Jake Bauers for Yandy Diaz, another first baseman.  The Rays also made a small splash in free agency, signing starting pitcher Charlie Morton and outfielder Avisail Garcia.  Like I said, the moves look minor, however all of them seem fitting and quite helpful in rounding out this roster.

Most Important Hitter

Tommy Pham

In 2017, Tommy Pham had a huge breakout season for the Cardinals.  Then in 2018, he was a huge disappointment in St. Louis.  At the Trade Deadline, the Rays made the surprising move of buying low on Pham, hoping he could get back to his 2017 form.  For the last few months of last season, that is exactly what he did.  In 39 games in Tampa last year, Pham hit .343 with 7 homers and 22 RBI's, resulting in a 194 OPS+ after just having a 99 OPS+ with St. Louis.  The Rays are now looking at Pham as an anchor and veteran presence in their emerging lineup.  The question is which Tommy Pham will show up in 2019?

Most Important Pitcher

Charlie Morton

Charlie Morton is entering his 12th season in the big leagues and is finally being viewed as elite.  Before 2017, Morton only posted two seasons above average (according to ERA+), topping out at 109 in 2013.  Then he ended up in Houston where his ERA+ was 113 in 2017 and 129 in 2018.  He was the one on the mound to close out the World Series in 2017, and then he made his first All Star team in 2018.  Entering his age 35 season, some saw the 2 year $30 million deal with the Rays as a surprise, not because Morton didn't deserve the pay day, but because of the Rays use of the Opener.  Morton is a tried and true starter that will put up at least 150 innings.  It also shows that the Rays use of the Opener may have been more out of necessity than anything.  They want starters, and they are hoping Morton can partner up with Blake Snell as a lethal 1-2 punch at the top of their rotation.  The question is can Morton continue his success now that he has transferred to a different orange juice, moving from Minute Maid Park in Houston to Tropicana Field in Tampa.

Prospect to Watch

Brent Honeywell

I was really looking forward to profiling Brent Honeywell on last year's article for the Rays.  He is an exciting player with electric stuff that includes a screwball (who does that?!?).  In 2017, he was the starting pitcher for the US team in the Futures Game, winning the MVP award for the game.  The hype was real!  Then he went down with Tommy John at the very start of the 2018 Spring Training.  He isn't expected to start pitching competitively until May or June, but if all goes well he could show up on the roster for a possible September playoff push.  Either way, look at him to for sure be added to the small group of actual starting pitchers in 2020.

2019 Prediction

3rd in AL East

Look for the Rays to end up in a similar position as last season.  They may not reach the 90 win mark again, but they will be the lone team on the second tier of the AL East.  They don't have what it takes to compete with the Yankees and Red Sox, but that doesn't mean they won't be competitive.  As last year, they will compete for a Wild Card spot, but look for them to once again come up short.

Fearless Prediction

Mike Zunino will hit over 30 home runs in 2019.

As a Mariners fan, I have spent the last six seasons waiting for Mike Zunino to finally put it all together and become the perennial All Star that his potential showed when he was selected 3rd overall in the 2012 Draft.  As soon as he was traded to the Rays, I knew that promise was going to get a lot closer to being fulfilled.  He grew up in Florida, went to the University of Florida, and now is back home.  Plus, he seems like the type of guy that a change of scenery will be good for, especially a change into a more hitter friendly park.  Look for his power to show up in a greater way than ever before.