2023 Pre-Season Profile: Atlanta Braves

 #10

The Atlanta Braves have been one of the most consistently strong teams of the last 5 seasons.  With the spending and success of the rest of their division, can they continue to stay at their elite level?

2022 Predictions

#12 - 3rd in NL East, WILD CARD, lose in Wild Card Round

MIH - Matt Olson

MIP - Kenley Jansen

PTW - Spencer Strider

2022 Results

#6 - 101-61, 1st in NL East, lost in NLDS

Highest WAR (Position) - Austin Riley

Highest WAR (Pitcher) - Max Fried

I always underestimate the Braves.  They followed up their World Series in 2021 with a 100 win season and another trip to the playoffs.  This time, they lost in the NLDS to division rival Philadelphia Phillies who ended up in the World Series themselves.  The biggest storyline for the Braves in 2022 was the success of the two best rookies in the NL last year: Spencer Strider and ROY winner Michael Harris II.  It was not a bad World Series follow-up for the Braves.

Additions / Subtractions

The Braves offseason was defined by one significant addition and one significant subtraction.  For the second straight offseason, the Braves made a blockbuster trade with the Oakland A's for one of their superstars.  Last year, it was Matt Olson.  This year, it was catcher Sean Murphy.  Among the pieces leaving Atlanta in that trade were All Star catcher William Contreras going to Milwaukee.  Murphy was added, but leaving Atlanta is their budding superstar shortstop Dansby Swanson who signed a free agent contract with the Cubs.  There will also be a new closer in Atlanta with Kenley Jansen signing with the Red Sox.

Most Important Hitter

Vaughn Grissom

Another fun surprise for the Braves in 2022 was the flashes they saw from infielder Vaughn Grissom.  In just his age 21 season, Grissom had a 121 OPS+ in 41 games, hitting .291 with 5 home runs.  It was an inconsistent debut season for Grissom, but he definitely showed flashes of greatness.  The Braves felt comfortable enough with what they saw from Grissom in 2022 that they decided not to replace Dansby Swanson at shortstop and hand the job to the youngster.  As was shown last year, young players can be inconsistent, and the Braves are anticipating some of that by starting Grissom in AAA this year and handing shortstop over to veteran Orlando Arcia on Opening Day.  However, everyone knows this job is Grissom's, and his success in 2023 will determine a lot of the success in Atlanta in 2023.

Most Important Pitcher

Spencer Strider

If you know anything about the Braves throughout the last 35 years or so, you know they will always have a lot of young pitching ready to produce at the big league level.  Spencer Strider became the latest in that line of pitchers.  In just 131 innings in 2022, Strider struck out 202 batters, had a 2.67 ERA with a 152 ERA+.  He announced his presence as a flamethrower.  At the same time, he also had some injuries hold him back.  Young arms tend to get hurt; just ask the Braves.  Kyle Wright is starting the year on the IL.  Ian Anderson is starting the season in AAA after losing his effectiveness.  Michael Soroka was in the same position as Strider a few seasons ago, and he has started 3 games in the last 3 seasons.  If the Braves are going to continue their success in 2023, Strider needs to be healthy and dominant.

Prospect to Watch

Jared Shuster

The Braves have an elite young core and have made some blockbuster trades the last few seasons.  Those two things lead to a depleted farm system.  Ranked the worst farm system in the big leagues, the Braves don't have a single prospect in the Top 100 Prospects list.  However, that doesn't mean they don't have some prospects that will impact the big club this season.  In fact, their top prospect, Jared Shuster, made the Opening Day starting rotation.  The 24 year old lefty doesn't have the elite velocity, but he knows how to pitch, control the zone, and be effective.  Like I said about Braves young pitchers, they always find a way to be successful.

2023 Prediction

3rd in NL East, WILD CARD, lose in Wild Card Series

I always underestimate the Braves.  I did it last year, and I might be doing it again this year.  However, you don't just lose someone like Dansby Swanson and not feel some negative effects.  Your young pitchers can get hurt.  You don't have an established closer in your bullpen.  There are just too many questions surrounding the Braves to realistically put them much higher.  With that said, any team in this top 10 could easily end up winning the World Series.

Fearless Prediction

The Braves will have at least three starters in this year's All Star Game.

There might be questions on this Braves roster, but they still have a lot elite talent.  If the Braves have a strong start to this season, look for them to be rewarded at the All Star Game.  Ronald Acuna Jr., Sean Murphy, Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies, Matt Olson, Marcell Ozuna, Michael Harris II, and even Max Fried could all realistically end up in that starting lineup in Seattle come July.

2021 Pre-Season Profile: Atlanta Braves

 #6

The Atlanta Braves continued to show in 2020 that they are one of the best young teams in all of baseball, coming one win away from making the World Series.  Can they continue to take steps forward in 2021?

2020 Predictions

#10 - 2nd in NL East, WILD CARD, lose in Wild Card Game

MIH - Marcell Ozuna

MIP - Cole Hamels

PTW - Kyle Wright

2020 Results

#6 - 35-25, 1st in NL East, lost in NLCS

I thought 2020 was due to be a step back for the young Braves roster.  Instead, they leapt forward.  I thought Cole Hamels was going to be a factor, and he pitched one game.  Marcell Ozuna had a big year, but not as big as league MVP Freddie Freeman.  Their young pitching stepped up, and that was after Opening Day starter Mike Soroka went down with an injury in his third start.  This all just proved how talented this team truly is and how high their ceiling is going forward.

Additions / Subtractions

Despite the big 2020 season, the Braves still understand the need for some veteran pitching to mentor the young aces they are developing.  So they went out and picked up Drew Smyly and Charlie Morton to pitch alongside the kids.  The other big move was re-signing Marcell Ozuna.  The only real subtractions from the lineup were Adam Duvall leaving for the Marlins and the retirement of Nick Markakis, moves that made room in the lineup considering there is no DH this year.  They did lose some key bullpen arms in Mark Melancon and Darren O'Day.

Most Important Hitter

Dansby Swanson

The Braves' lineup is pretty loaded with stars.  From Freddie Freeman to Marcell Ozuna to possibly the best of them all in Ronald Acuna Jr., this lineup can produce runs.  The breakout star among stars last season was Dansby Swanson.  He put together his best season to date at the plate and trailed only Freeman and pitching phenom Max Fried on the team in WAR (his highest WAR mark of his career despite it only being a 60 game season).  The question is whether or not the former number one overall pick can replicate that level of production for a full 162.  If he can, he becomes yet another weapon opposing pitchers have to deal with in this lineup.

Most Important Pitcher

Will Smith

The Braves always have a plethora of starting pitching, but the real question mark this season is the bullpen.  Closer Mark Melancon and specialist Darren O'Day left this team in the offseason and weren't really replaced.  So who is the closer?  How will they end the brilliant games their starters will pitch?  The most likely option, and the option the Braves need to emerge, is Will Smith.  A former All Star closer with the Giants, Smith has shown he can be an impact arm at the end of a game, something no one else in the bullpen has really proven.  If he can establish himself as the guy, all the other arms in the pen can start to find their role.  If he can't, it might be bullpen by committee which rarely ever works.

Prospect to Watch

Cristian Pache

After a taste of the big leagues in 2020 as a 21 year old, Cristian Pache will be the Opening day starting centerfielder.  Ranked the 12th best prospect in baseball, Pache is an elite defender (which earned him a spot on the postseason roster last season) that is still learning how to be an impact bat in a lineup.  He has shown some great progress and could be the next great young star in the Braves lineup.

2021 Prediction

1st in NL East, lose in NLDS

Emerging from the mayhem of the NL East in 1st place is going to be no easy task, but the Braves seem to have the depth and the youth to do it.  With that said, I think come October some of that youth could hurt them from making a deep run this season, especially considering how strong some of the other contenders are.  It might be a quick exit, but the Braves are a powerhouse that are here to stay for awhile.

Fearless Prediction

Ronald Acuna Jr. wins the NL MVP.

Somehow, Ronald Acuna Jr. is just entering his age 23 season, and he has already established himself as a perennial MVP candidate.  He won Rookie of the Year in 2018, finished 5th in MVP in 2019, and finished 12th in MVP in 2020 despite missing some time with injury and his teammate taking first place.  This could be the year he emerges with the crown.  What will help him is the development of Cristian Pache so he doesn't have to play centerfield anymore.  Being in rightfield might be a little less taxing and might be able to preserve some health.  Either way, it should be a big year for Acuna.