At last, here are my updated Oscar predictions! A lot has happened
since my first predictions in February. Some movies have failed, some have
surprised, and some have been pushed to 2016 and out of contention. A few trailers
have burst onto the scene and immediately gotten the attention of the major
festivals and audiences alike. It will be an interesting Oscar season. I love
this time of year!
Notable release date casualties: Silence, Snowden, Knight of Cups, Tulip Fever, Demolition, Midnight Special, Untitled Howard Hughes Project, That’s
What I’m Talking About Everybody Wants Some, Triple Nine, Bleed for This
I will also leave out films like Miles
Ahead, Icon The Program, and The Light Between Oceans, which look as if they will probably have
the same fate as the abovementioned films.
BEST
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Predicted Five
1. Steve Jobs – Aaron Sorkin – Sorkin might be the best
screenwriter in the world, and his script appears to be furious and relevant.
When he decides to write a movie, he gets nominated.
2. Beasts of No Nation – Cary Fukunaga – The movie is one of the
frontrunners in several categories, but winning screenplay over some flashier
writing might be a bit difficult for the Netflix original movie.
3. Carol – Phyllis Nagy – Todd Haynes didn’t write, so it might be
a tougher sell than Far from Heaven,
but all early indications are that this is sumptuous and brilliant.
4. Trumbo – John McNamara –
Whenever a film takes aim at Hollywood, it is always a good thing for Oscar
contention. Blacklisting has rarely been told well in film, so who better than
Jay Roach to bring this lightning screenplay to life?
5. The Danish Girl – Lucina Coxon – The Tom Hooper film is getting
raves from everywhere, and with that subject matter, it appears to be the
perfect time for it to come out. Coxon is an unproven writer, but that
shouldn’t matter for the Oscar juggernaut.
Others in contention
6. Truth – James Vanderbilt –
He only really has one decent screenplay in Zodiac,
but this film about Dan Rather appears to have the type of sharp writing to
warrant Oscar attention.
7. The Revenant – Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Mark L. Smith – The
movie is going to be a big hit, but unless it is unanimous, a nomination in
this category will prove difficult.
8.
Brooklyn – Nick Hornby – The raves for this movie are coming
in. Hornby is always popular, so watch out for this one if it gets enough of an
American theatrical run.
9. Our Brand is Crisis – Peter Straughan – The previous nominee
has a great political topic to chew on and a cast to take it all the way to the
Oscars.
10. The Secret in Their Eyes –
Billy Ray – He is one of the more popular writers out there, and adapting
the smash hit foreign Oscar winner seems like a perfect fit.
11. Black Mass – Jez Butterworth, Mark Mallouk – The movie is
getting a lot of good word, but other than Depp, this might be the film’s peak.
Scott Cooper has yet to validate the talent he showed with Crazy Heart.
12. Concussion – Peter Landesman – Everyone keeps wanting Landesman
to become the next big thing, but it isn’t working. The same goes for John
Wells. If this movie is good enough, then maybe a screenplay nomination will
come his way and finally validate his hype.
BEST
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Predicted Five
1. Spotlight - Thomas McCarthy, Josh Singer – McCarthy is one of
the most popular filmmakers around, and this is his best shot yet at winning
big at the Oscars. His subject matter is controversial and timely, which always
helps.
2. Joy – David O. Russell, Annie Mumolo – Maybe Russell will never
win, but he will continue stacking up nominations like Billy Wilder. Working
with the Oscar-nominated writer of Bridesmaids
is intriguing to say the least.
3. The Hateful Eight – Quentin Tarantino – I am pretty confident
that he will be nominated, but unless he can once again outdo himself, then he
might just be an also-ran.
4. Son of Saul – Laszlo Nemes, Clara Royer – The Holocaust film
has garnered wide attention and a scheduled legitimate US release date. This is
the foreign film that will sweep everyone off their feet.
5. Inside Out – Pete Docter, Bob Petersen – Pixar has returned to
form, and if this movie is not nominated in this category, then I don’t know
what is going on. It is as well-written of a film as we have seen in years. It
needs a strong video release/streaming campaign.
Others in contention
6. Bridge of Spies – Joel Coen, Ethan Coen, Matt Charman – The
film had a popular trailer, but something about it seemed a bit phony to me.
The Coens being on the job is cool, but they direct their best scripts.
7. Sicario – Taylor Sheridan – This thriller is getting a lot of
run commercially, which is promising. The cast is awesome. These types of
movies come out a lot, and since he is a first time writer, I am leaving it just
on the outside.
8. The Good Dinosaur – Enrico Casarosa, Bob Petersen – We are not
entirely sure about the quality of the film yet, but judging by the trailer, it
might even eclipse Inside Out.
9. Youth – Paolo Sorrentino – The Academy loved The Great Beauty, so Sorrentino’s
American film needs to be considered as a major contender. It looks quirky, but
that works in this category.
10. Burnt – Steven Knight, Michael Kalesniko – Knight is a past
nominee, and this film starring Bradley Cooper sounds like the type of
redemption story that can easily win over the conservative Oscar voters.
11.
Crimson Peak – Guillermo del Toro, Matthew Robinson – Del Toro
can complete the Mexican director trifecta if his film wins big, but it is a
horror-type film, so that is unlikely. The
Pan’s
Labyrinth filmmaker still deserves our due attention.
12. Trainwreck – Amy Schumer – The screenplay is brilliant, hip,
and current. The Academy loves strong female characters. It is possible, but it
needs to regain some steam in the coming months.
13. Suffragette – Abi Morgan –
Morgan is a talented writer, and making a film about the feminist movement is
definitely a way to get attention from award circuits.
BEST
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
The Predicted Five
1. Rooney Mara – Carol – She won at Cannes, which
firmly puts her in competition at the American awards. She does such good work
every year. This might be her time.
2. Ellen Page – Freeheld – Is it time for a
validation nomination for Page? She is clearly playing a role that is personal,
so she might be at her best.
3. Helena Bonham Carter – Suffragette – She appears to be a
standout in the film. I think it will be an actor showcase, so expect a couple
of the women to get in.
4. Jennifer Jason Leigh – The Hateful Eight – She has
embarrassingly never been nominated by the Academy. Playing in a Tarantino film
should finally give her that vehicle to put her over the top.
5. Jane Fonda – Youth – She hasn’t been nominated
since 1986. Playing aside such esteemed veterans as Michael Caine and Harvey
Keitel should definitely give her the best role she has had in decades.
Others in contention
6. Kate Winslet – Steve Jobs – It is a bit strange to
think that the annual nominee hasn’t been invited back in 7 years, but then
again she taking other types of roles in that time. It would not surprise me at
all if she steals this movie.
7. Julie Walters – Brooklyn – She will get a lot of
British backing heading up to the announcement of the nominations, but I am
almost in a “wait and see” with this movie.
8. Rachel McAdams – Spotlight – She has been doing the
best work of her career recently, and she kills it in these types of roles. Is
this finally her ticket?
9. Helen Mirren – Trumbo – She has a juicy role as a
gossip columnist in the true story. She is always an Academy favorite.
10. Diane Lane – Trumbo – She gets her best role in
ages as Dalton Trumbo’s wife. Bryan Cranston will bring out the best in the
underrated actress.
11.
Diane Ladd – Joy – She hasn’t been invited back
in 24 years, but then again, she hasn’t really done a whole lot of anything in
that time. This would be a cool comeback story, and we all know what the
Academy thinks of David O. Russell’s actors.
12. Meryl Streep – Suffragette – She is nominated
whenever she has a relevant film, and depending on the size of her role, this
might be her best shot this year.
13. Melanie Laurent – By the Sea – Angelina Jolie’s
romantic drama gathered a great cast, and this role might be one of my most
anticipated in 2015. Laurent can do wonders with the right direction.
14. Naomi Watts – About Ray – She is playing the
mother of a girl who wants to become a boy, so we know the emotional scenes we
will get to see from Watts.
15. Jessica Chastain – Crimson Peak – Chastain has
developed a reputation of being one of the most reliable actresses out there,
and being in a Guillermo del Toro film has my attention at least.
BEST
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
The Predicted Five
1. Idris Elba – Beasts of No Nation – Elba has yet
to break through in film, but this role seems to be right in his wheelhouse. It
is also one of the frontrunners, so that always helps.
2. Harvey Keitel – Youth – He has only been nominated
once for Bugsy, so he would be
welcomed back. He so rarely gets critical roles like this.
3. Michael Keaton – Spotlight – He officially is back. Playing
in this movie should easily get him a second consecutive nomination and another
shot at taking home gold.
4. Michael Stuhlbarg – Trumbo – He is not being hyped by
most, but being cast as Edward G. Robinson is as interesting and perfect as any
2015 casting.
5. Samuel L. Jackson – The Hateful Eight – I would love if
he could finally get back to the Oscars. QT always writes Jackson’s best roles,
so we will see how this pans out.
Others in contention
6. Mark Rylance – Bridge of Spies – He is playing the
antagonist Soviet spy in Spielberg’s drama, which seems as juicy of a role as
any. Could he be 2015’s Christoph Waltz?
7. Tom Hardy – The Revenant – Hardy has been
knocking on Oscar’s door for a few years now, so being in Academy-favorite
Inarritu’s film puts him squarely in the race.
8. Seth Rogen – Steve Jobs – His part in the trailer
was not overly impressive, but he must have blown everyone away to get cast in
this crucial role. I am hopeful that he can finally shed his undeserved image
of being one-dimensional and secure a nomination.
9. Bradley Cooper – Joy – Cooper has been nominated
three years in a row, and this could easily make it four, all but one being for
Russell.
10. Benicio Del Toro – Sicario – Del Toro is one of the
best actors in the world, and this kind of role is what he usually owns, but
the film is never up to his level. Sicario
should be different.
11. Robert De Niro – Joy – David O. Russell brought De
Niro back, and it probably won’t be all that difficult to keep him here.
12. Michael Shannon – 99 Homes – I tried to avoid this movie
after overhyping it last year before it got delayed, but this role is just so
intriguing. I can’t wait until this actually comes out.
13. Liev Schreiber – Pawn Sacrifice – After doing a crash
course on Bobby Fischer, I cannot think of a more easy casting decision than
Schreiber as his Russian rival.
14.
Jason Segel – The End of the Tour – Segel certainly
has talent. Playing George Foster Wallace is as strange and brilliant of a
casting choice as possible. I hope for the best.
15. Jason Mitchell – Straight Outta Compton – He received
“best in show” reviews as Eazy-E in the monster box office hit. If the film is
remembered in December, watch out for this surprise nomination.
16. Jeff Daniels – Steve Jobs – Daniels is sensational
with Sorkin’s words in The Newsroom,
so I expect his part to stand out in Boyle’s film.
BEST
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
The Predicted Five
1. Alicia Vikander – The Danish Girl – She has had one
unbelievable year. Her performance appears to be beautiful in Tom Hooper’s
drama. The Academy loves the female companion roles to the dominant male
characters.
2. Cate Blanchett – Carol – She easily could take her
third Oscar with this film. She will wind up with more Oscars than Katherine
Hepburn. Todd Haynes and Cate Blanchett were made for each other.
3. Jennifer Lawrence – Joy – She will become the next in
line of the perennial nominees, and this is one of those roles that if she
kills it, she will coast to an Oscar.
4. Carey Mulligan – Suffragette – She has unfortunately
only been nominated once, so with this feminist film and her acclaimed work in Far from the Madding Crowd, she should
be able to get invited back.
5. Meryl Streep – Ricki and the Flash – I had to
include her somewhere. She needs to get the Golden Globe nomination first, then
this will come.
Others in contention
6. Saoirse Ronan – Brooklyn – She has been close to
getting her second career nomination for a while, and while this film looks so
promising for her, I am not quite ready to put her up with that group just yet.
7. Brie Larson – Room – Her performance has gotten
raves. She has been doing some tremendous work recently, and this type of
motherly emotional role should play well with voters.
8. Lily Tomlin – Grandma – These types of road
comedies sometimes really work well for the actors. She hasn’t been nominated
since 1975.
9. Cate Blanchett – Truth – This role has almost no
chance at beating out her role in Carol,
but it is worth mentioning if they somehow convince the Academy that she is
supporting in the Haynes film. She plays opposite Robert Redford, which will be
a really interesting battle.
10. Sandra Bullock – Our Brand is Crisis – She seemed to
really be commanding in the trailer. When she gets a real role, the voters
usually flock to her support.
11.
Emily Blunt – Sicario – She should be a nominee
already. These types of badass roles are tough to pull off, and she does it in
her sleep. This might be a quality enough movie to finally get her attention
for doing it.
12. Marion Cotillard – Macbeth – The trailer looked
unbelievable. Is there a better choice for Lady Macbeth than Cotillard? I think
not. If the movie is distributed enough, it will be hard to not vote for her.
13. Julianne Moore – Freeheld – She just won, but she is
still one of the most liked actresses out there. She is going to have a host of
emotional scenes with Page, so maybe they both get in?
14. Angelina Jolie – By the Sea – She isn’t the most
popular actress, but this is the first time she is directing herself. She has certainly
proved to be talented behind the camera and great with her actors. Can she
direct herself to a nomination? It is rare, but it could happen.
BEST
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
The Predicted Five
1. Eddie Redmayne – The Danish Girl – Winning two Oscars
in a row is really rare, but how can you bet against him? Tom Hooper, transgender,
physical transformation, British…check, check, check, check.
2. Michael Fassbender – Steve Jobs – Fassbender needs to win
one here pretty soon. Maybe his role as Steve Jobs will help him bring it home.
He certainly appears to be game by the trailers and early reviews.
3. Bryan Cranston – Trumbo – He has been doing some nice
film work since he got done with Breaking
Bad. The film is one of the ones to beat in the main categories, and from
the trailer, he appears to have stepped right out of the 1940s.
4. Leonardo DiCaprio – The Revenant – He looks to really be
going for it in Inarritu’s film. He will win one eventually, I hope.
5. Bradley Cooper – Burnt – He has the redemption role,
but first he gets to be a jerk and a drug addict. Sounds like another Cooper
nomination to me.
Others in contention
6. Abraham Attah – Beasts of No Nation – Children are
not nominated in this category very often, but being in the frontrunning film
puts him in the race.
7. Robert Redford – Truth – He is playing Dan Rather,
which sounds like a money role for the underrated actor who hasn’t been
nominated in 42 years.
8. Michael Caine – Youth – Caine is always in
contention when he gets a real role. If he gets nominated here, then that will
be six decades in a row with a nom. That has never been done.
9. Tom Hanks – Bridge of Spies – Hanks has somewhat
lost his luster after being snubbed for Captain
Phillips. He seems to be too subtle here for a nomination, but who knows…
10.
Johnny Depp – Black Mass – Depp is getting raves
for his physical transformation and creepy scene in the trailer. I am not ready
to anoint this film yet, but I will happily be proven wrong.
11. Mark Ruffalo – Spotlight – I am not really sure who
is lead or if there is one, but Ruffalo is one of the most popular guys around.
If the movie hits big, he will be taking them there.
12. Jake Gyllenhaal – Southpaw – He has had an incredible
run the past few years, but sadly it seems like he is going to have to keep waiting
for his second nomination with Demolition
getting pushed to 2016.
13. Will Smith – Concussion – Smith is beloved when
he has a real role. The film about concussions in professional football seems
like a good enough topic, and he is playing with an accent. Is that enough?
14. Brad Pitt – By the Sea – Pitt playing opposite
Jolie in Jolie’s film? Yes.
15. Michael B. Jordan – Creed – Coogler directed Jordan to
the best performance of 2013, and the trailer for Creed was incredible. Is it serious enough to get real attention?
16. Joseph Gordon-Levitt – The Walk – JGL has put in some nice
work in recent years. The movie seems to be a bit too dry compared to the
thrill that was Man on Wire, but we
will have to wait and see.
BEST
DIRECTOR
The Predicted Five
1. Cary Fukunaga – Beasts of No Nation – After True Detective, we all knew that he was
riding high. How careful was he with his next feature film? It looks
astounding.
2. Tom Hooper – The Danish Girl – Hooper just won in
2010, so maybe they will want to wait before giving him another. The film looks
gorgeous, though.
3. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu –
The Revenant – I really doubt
that this film can really win the big awards after Birdman swept last year, but the Academy has always loved him. His
new film looks furious and intense.
4. Thomas McCarthy – Spotlight – McCarthy has had a few
acclaimed films that just missed out on Oscar nominations. This is his most
serious film to date and one that needs our attention.
5. Danny Boyle – Steve Jobs – Boyle always leaves his
mark in his directing jobs, but this appears to be more condensed. It worked
for Fincher with The Social Network.
He could be the frontrunner if it is as good as it can be.
Others in contention
6. Jay Roach – Trumbo – It might be a tough sell
for the director of Meet the Parents
and Austin Powers to be an Oscar
nominee, but he also did Game Change
and Recount. The Hollywood subject is
perfect for his brand of satire.
7.
Quentin Tarantino – The Hateful Eight – Tarantino is the
ultimate wild card in this category. If his film is good enough, he could win. The
Academy loves throwbacks and westerns.
8. David O. Russell – Joy – I am going to put him outside
the top five just because it gets a little tiresome always putting him in. He
is getting nominated, though.
9. Steven Spielberg – Bridge of Spies – How much does the
Academy still love him? Lincoln
seemed like a shoo-in, but he went home empty-handed. He missed out on a Best
Director nom for War Horse. Maybe I
am underselling the potential of this film, but I just fear that it is going to
underwhelm.
10. Todd Haynes – Carol – Haynes always is an
interesting case. He somehow got snubbed back in 2002 for Far from Heaven. His films are always visually impressive. Maybe he
is just too lavish for their taste.
11. Ron Howard – In the Heart of the Sea – Howard is always
a popular choice when he makes a good film. Putting the film squarely in Oscar season
helped the film’s cause and hype.
12. Pete Docter – Inside Out – If there is ever an
animated film director that gets in, it would be for a movie like this. It won’t
happen, but it is worth discussing.
13. Denis Villeneuve – Sicario – After Incendies and Prisoners,
Villeneuve is riding high. This film is getting the buzz to really take over
the race in early October.
BEST
PICTURE
The Predicted Ten (I predict 9 will get nominated)
1. Beasts of No Nation (Cary Fukunaga) – Is the Academy ready (or
will they ever be ready) to give a Netflix original streaming movie the top
prize? We will find out this year…
2. Trumbo (Jay Roach) – If they aren’t then they will likely give
it to the film that puts Hollywood in the crosshairs.
3. Steve Jobs (Danny Boyle) – The film seems pretty safe for a nomination,
but it needs to really have something bigger to offer to win. I think it might.
4. Spotlight (Thomas McCarthy) – If the Academy wants to go with
something really serious and controversial, this is their choice.
5. The Danish Girl (Tom Hooper) – If the Academy is in a more
British and character-driven piece, then Hooper’s film will get the votes.
6. The Revenant (Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu) – If the Academy
really doesn’t care about awards overkill and really wants to give Leo some
love, then The Revenant might have a
real chance at winning.
7. The Hateful Eight (Quentin Tarantino) – I can’t actually see
this film winning Best Picture, but a nomination seems pretty safe if the movie
is up to QT’s standards.
8. Inside Out (Pete Docter) – If the Academy has a heart, then
this will be nominated. If they have a brain, they will consider it for the
win.
9. Joy (David O. Russell) – If the Academy finally wants to give
Russell a win, then this will make the list and get nominated everywhere else.
10. Bridge of Spies (Steven Spielberg) – Who am I kidding, this is
totally getting nominated, isn’t it?
Others in contention
11. Carol (Todd Haynes) – This seems like more of a character drama
than a Best Picture contender, but they have gotten in before. Haynes has never
gotten one of his films this far, however.
12. Our Brand is Crisis (David Gordon Green) – Can David Gordon
Green become an Oscar nominee? His films have been good enough on occasion.
This is his best shot yet.
13. Sicario (Denis Villeneuve) – If the movie has a big box office
and strong reviews, I think that this could be a dark horse all throughout
awards season.
14. In the Heart of the Sea (Ron Howard) – Ron Howard films are an
easy sell. These types of big action pieces haven’t really been their thing for
about a decade, but this could change that.
15.
Brooklyn (John Crowley) – Romantic dramas like this aren’t
always treated well, but I wouldn’t count out a film with this kind of
pedigree.
16. Star Wars: Episode VII – The Force Awakens (JJ Abrams) – This is
one of the big unknowns in the race. The original was of course nominated
everywhere, but all of the other episodes have been overlooked. If it is good
enough and explodes at the box office the way we all anticipate, then…maybe? We
can only hope.
17. The Good Dinosaur (Peter Sohn) – I am not going to put this
completely out of contention, even though it has an uphill climb to even be the
best Pixar film in 2015. However, the director of the best animated short I can
remember in Partly Cloudy has his
debut film coming out. It has to be incredible.
18. Straight Outta Compton (F. Gary Gray) – The box office was
greater than anyone could have imagined. The subject is timely and effectively
told. The acting is tremendous. Can it snag the final spot? I wouldn’t be
entirely surprised, but I would be impressed.
That’s all I got! Surprises? Overlooks? Comments? Let me know. I’d love
to discuss.
